From a team-based performance analysis of the nine bottom-placed teams in the Premier League table, we predict that Fulham, Crystal Palace and West Ham will be relegated, while Hull City, Swansea City and Sunderland should avoid the drop.
We are eight weeks from the end of the 2013/4 season and at the top it’s been the closest title race for years. At the other end of the table, the race to avoid relegation is also well underway. We used the sophisticated scoring method of Beat Your Manager! to analyse the past performances of the nine bottom-placed teams (West Ham United, Hull City, Swansea City, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Cardiff City and Fulham) to see if we can predict who is likely to go down and who will stay up.
Beat Your Manager! Fantasy Football uses a sophisticated scoring system, based on “moneyball” principles, where the key performance criteria that are important for players in different positions are built into formulas that calculate individual player performances. For more information on how the scoring works, have a look at http://beatyourmanager.ie/how-the-scoring-works/.
Players amass individual scores and these scores are added to create a score for the whole team. The score is entirely based on the effort that players put into matches; a higher score indicates that the team performed better in that match. While a higher score may not directly translate into wins and points on the table; in general, the two correlate well and a consistently improving score indicates that a team is performing well on the pitch and should win matches and amass points.
We have posted an excel file (“1-30 Weeks Scores for 9-bottom-placed teams”) on our blog (http://beatyourmanager.ie/blog/) that lists the overall team scores for the nine bottom-placed teams for every gameweek since the start of the season. It’s not a complete dataset - only Cardiff City, Fulham and Norwich City have played every gameweek; Crystal Palace, Hull City, Swansea City West Brom and West Ham have played one game less and Sunderland has played 3 games less. To minimise “noise” we have averaged team performances over 5 weeks (6x5-week sections); this has the effect of smoothing out larger peaks and troughs, so that overall trends in performance can be seen. These trends are displayed in the three graphs (also displayed on the blog) and are also useful for projecting into the future, so that we can make some likely guesses about future performances.
Based on previous performance, the data indicates that Fulham, Crystal Palace and West Ham are the three most likely teams to go down at the end of the season. Fulham is not a surprise, they are on their third manager already this season and they are rooted to the bottom of the table. Crystal Palace are just above the drop zone while West Ham are currently the highest-placed team of the nine, sitting 12th. However, all three teams display an overall downward trajectory of scores, while those scores are also close to the lower limit of the range scored for all nine teams, indicating that these teams are demonstrating progressively poorer performances that are unlikely to stop anytime soon.
What may give them some hope is the performances of Cardiff City, Norwich City and West Brom. These three teams are performing in the middle range of the nine bottom-ranked teams and could reasonably expect to beat the relegation trap. However, their scores are becoming increasingly erratic and could turn into a downward spiral unless they are corrected. Additionally, Norwich City have a particularly tough final run-in to the season (with Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal their final four matches), delivering a downward trend of scores that could spell disaster.
Hull City, Swansea City and Sunderland are likely to escape relegation; all three teams show a positive upward trend of scores that should take them clear of the drop zone. Hull and Swansea are currently ranked 13th and 14th, with a slender lead over the teams fighting tooth and nail in the relegation zone. Sunderland is in the final three, but does have three games in hand over many of the other contenders and with a progressively improving performance profile, is expected to turn those games into points.
This analysis is based purely on scores recorded and does not take into account home vs. away scores, or the quality of the opposition.
You can play the game by searching for “Beat Your Manager” in the Appstore/Google Playstore or by following the link for Android (http://goo.gl/WlNfJX) or iPhone (http://tinyurl.com/BeatYourManageriOS).You can also follow us on twitter https://twitter.com/beatyourmanager or become a fan at http://www.facebook.com/beatyourmanager.
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Fulham, Crystal Palace and West Ham to be relegated
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