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Sports Personality 2017

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Footy66
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Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Getting this going early...

As always I like to find outsiders who have the potential to win SPOTY, going for outsiders is always my aim when gambling in general.

Hasn't really worked lately. Seems to be Andy Murray winning it every ruddy year.


Boxing - Anthony Joshua.

Tennis - Andy Murray, Johanna Konta.

F1 - Lewis Hamilton.

Tour De France - Is Cavendish going for the Green Jersey this year? I think I'll rule out Froome for Spoty.

Athletics (World Championships) - Farah. Not sure there are any other athletics sports people who are 'big' enough to win Spoty.

Sailing (America's Cup) - Ben Ainslie (Not sure how 'big' this America's Cup is - I doubt many in UK care about it)

Golf - A major win may not even be enough for any golfer.

Snooker - O'Sullivan (Would need to win the first 2 majors of the year).

Horse Racing - Are there any legendary riders who could accomplish a milestone this year, or win the Grand National which would boost their already high status?



Highly likely winners: Joshua, Murray, Hamilton.

Outsiders: Konta, Cavendish, O'Sullivan, Ainslie.



Is there anyone I have missed out who has the potential to win......?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by unc.si. »

re Cav, unless they tweak the rules on intermediate sprint points it seems unlikely that he'll get Green as Sagan can pick up points everywhere. He could possibly equal Merckx' record for stage wins (would need to win 4 and there are more sprint stages in 2017). Its possible although he is past his prime and there are other good sprinters around. Probably 'better' than Cav, but there have always been sprinters around who are in theory better than him but he's always managed to find a way to win.

He also won't win the Worlds. They're in Bergen so he's got no chance. Probably the main reason that he won last time was because he picked up the Rainbow Jersey as well as Green in the Tour.

He is very popular though and if say he won 5 stages in the Tour to beat the Merckx record, plus maybe picked up Milan San Remo as well then he might have an outside chance in what feels like a fairly open year.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

Also with Cav he was nominated because he was the breakthrough UK Cyclist etc.

It does look like 6 male and 6 female was the criteria for the list this year, which is probably why Froome isn't on it. As elsewhere, I doubt very much if he would have won, but he should have been on the list.

Imho, the List smacks of tokenism etc and how can Jade Jones not be on it? I guess that the female fighter category was filled by Adams who is also not caucasian, so another box was ticked by Adams. This allowed the married lesbian hockey player to go in...... My point being that next year the Shortlist will almost certainly be similar: and someone like Froome, but with a better chance of winning might not even make the list.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by murf »

blahblah wrote:Also with Cav he was nominated because he was the breakthrough UK Cyclist etc.

It does look like 6 male and 6 female was the criteria for the list this year, which is probably why Froome isn't on it. As elsewhere, I doubt very much if he would have won, but he should have been on the list.

Imho, the List smacks of tokenism etc and how can Jade Jones not be on it? I guess that the female fighter category was filled by Adams who is also not caucasian, so another box was ticked by Adams. This allowed the married lesbian hockey player to go in...... My point being that next year the Shortlist will almost certainly be similar: and someone like Froome, but with a better chance of winning might not even make the list.
I made a comment about the tokenism on the 2016 thread but the point there was there are a lot of Olympic candidates to choose worthy and/or token selections from. In 2017 there won't be so if you actually achieve anything worthy you will get on (to be joined by tokens who didn't really do much).

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

It's surely going to be one of Joshua, Murray or Hamilton, but these will all be pretty low odds and not worth touching.

At least one of them will succeed. Murray will surely win at least 1 major, he could even win them all based on how the top guys have fallen. Joshua is expected to beat Klitchko, Hamilton (depending on how competitive the car is) will be fighting for the World Championship, possibly against a teammate in Alonso, so more kudos if he does win.


It wouldn't surprise me if Konta won a major, it wouldn't surprise me if O'Sullivan wins the first 2 majors of the year, it wouldn't surprise me if Mcilroy wins a couple of majors.

So probably wack £5 on Konta. I'd guess she may be as high as 200-1, but maybe that's hopeful thinking.

I'll also wack £10 on O'Sullivan, based on previous years - he'll be around 80-1.

If any outsider is going to beat Murray, Joshua, or Hamilton it has to be a popular legend of a sport.....O'Sullivan meets that criteria. If Selby wasn't so good, then this bet would have so much more potential.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by forestfan »

What about Jamie Vardy ;)

We haven't even had this year's yet... that might give some voting pattern clues in terms of people who might be in the mix again next year (i.e. those whose public profile isn't 99% Olympics-based).

World Athletics in London could be a key event, athletics has produced most winners historically I think, though has fared less well in recent years. Someone winning a home gold medal might be in the frame.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

forestfan wrote: World Athletics in London could be a key event, athletics has produced most winners historically I think, though has fared less well in recent years. Someone winning a home gold medal might be in the frame.
Maybe Farah time?

Murray has to win more than 1 Slam, imho, Winning the first two would probably bag this as he would have held all 4 at the same time? (And the Olympics? Sorry, but I don't consider Olympic Tennis and Golf to be relevant, but some\this do.)

Hamilton - I'm biased and think he is £$%$"" and he competes in a 2 driver Comp.

Froome should at least get nominated, with another Tdf win. But more so if he goes brave for a Giro and Vuelta double, but there is little chance of that?

As above Cav being leading TdF Stage winner would be a cyclist fave, and he seems a good\honest egg (with a competitive streak, obviously).

If it is a quiet year and one of the Yates brothers do REALLY well, which is not impossible, then the cycling lobby could get behind them, subject to Cav not getting the record.

Is Konte that good? Will the tennis lot vote for an Aussie of Yugoslav descent, or something like that?

Joshua seems to be the antithesis to Fury, so could well go close, with the title.

All the above is subject to the break down of the requirements of the short list ie half male\female; so many (non)caucasian; so many (dis)able bodied etc.

A footballer coming out as gay could well have this in the bag.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Murray has to win more than 1 Slam, imho, Winning the first two would probably bag this as he would have held all 4 at the same time?

Murray will ideally need to win Wimbledon at the very least. I'm going to assume he won't play Davis Cup in 2017, too big a year for him to continue his dominance and get as many majors as possible.

Joshua seems to be the antithesis to Fury, so could well go close, with the title.

Boxing world champions do well at SPOTY - many winners. So him beating Klitchko + holding onto his heavyweight belts all year - would possibly beat Murray to the SPOTY title - even if Murray wins 2 majors.

Hamilton - I'm biased and think he is £$%$"" and he competes in a 2 driver Comp.

I take it you're not an F1 fan. He's definitely not £$*!. Next season will potentially be more competitive. Even if it is a 2 driver comp, Hamilton has proven he is one of the best, if not the best driver out there. He could potentially have Alonso as his team mate - someone who is also regarded as one of the best drivers - so beating him will add kudos to a title win.

Maybe Farah time?

Possibly - but looking at number of votes he has got in previous years SPOTY's - he isn't that popular, especially considering what he has achieved. Though with less competition in Athletics with Ennis retired, and a quieter year of sport in 2017 - he may well get the votes, but will surely need Hamilton, Murray and Joshua all to fail.

Cycling

Can't really see any cyclist winning it. Cav beating the all time stage wins isn't a big enough achievement to deserve a SPOTY trophy.

Is Konta that good? Will the tennis lot vote for an Aussie of Yugoslav descent, or something like that?

She has come from waaaaay down the rankings to now be world number 10. The Woman's game is much more of a Free-For-All than the mens. I picked her out as she will be high odds to win SPOTY and I love betting on high odds. It wouldn't surprise me if she won a major. Yes - she isn't a 'full on Brit' - so that could count against her anyway.


Not sure any disabled sports people will feature in 2017. Only do so when the paralympics is on. But yes - the BBC do go overboard in being PC in their shortlists, I suppose it's the medias fault for banging on about the lack of women 3 years ago? The fact is - men are better at sport, men are more active in sport so no wonder not many women feature in a non-Olympic year.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Surprised »

Not sure why you keep putting O'Sullivan in he list. Has he ever made the final 16?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Surprised wrote:Not sure why you keep putting O'Sullivan in he list. Has he ever made the final 16?

Why does it matter if he's been in the shortlist or not before?

He's one of the most successful Snooker players of all time, and is still one of the best.

It's the legends of sports that have the potential to be good outside bets....

To name a few......Sportsmen like Giggs and McCoy didn't win SPOTY because of what they did that year, they won it because of what they did throughout their legendary careers. Good chance Nick Skelton will get top 3 this year because of his career, not his olympic Gold.

O'Sullivan will highly likely need to win the first 2 majors of the year, but he is capable of that.


To make it clear.....When I gamble, I gamble on outsiders. This is why O'Sullivan has been picked out. I am not saying he will win it as there are 3 or 4 obvious sports people who have a very high chance of winning it. I am saying O'Sullivan is a good outside bet.

Basically I look for value, so picking out and betting on Joshua, Murray or Hamilton is simply not worth it - it's highly likely going to be one of them picking up SPOTY....but the odds of them winning will surely be dire and not worth touching.

I think people who comment on these threads generally do not bet on this market and do not look at it from a betting point of view. If they do - they probably don't mind betting on short odds.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Surprised »

I just think O'Sullivan will never be shortlisted or be top 3 because too many people are fed up with his continual whining. He has been a top player for years and isn't achieving anything he hasn't done countless times before.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

Footy66 wrote:I think people who comment on these threads generally do not bet on this market and do not look at it from a betting point of view. If they do - they probably don't mind betting on short odds.
That's quite an assertion. :?
I visit this thread (and appreciate the contributions) to aid me with my own bets.

But my strategy varies greatly from your own.
Personally I try to build value (backing and laying) throughout the year, regardless of the price. So that by the time December comes round, I have 'greened up' on all the likely outcomes - as I have managed to do this year.

I think Farah does look a good early shout for next year.
10/11 Golds at Olympics/Worlds would be an amazing achievement and if he were to also signal an end to his track career then the Worlds might be his swansong. A home event to boot.

As always, event timing will be everything and Joshua's defining fight is coming too early in the calendar really. If Eddie Hearn can get him another big-name showdown (Wilder? Haye?) for say November then, yes, he will be a definite front-runner.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by murf »

Boxers will always be handicapped by not being on mainstream telly which is what resonates with SPOTY voters.

With this you also have to be wary of a 'stupid' push for an undeserved winner (in terms of achievement in calendar year) like Giggs.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

maradonash wrote: But my strategy varies greatly from your own.
Personally I try to build value (backing and laying) throughout the year, regardless of the price. So that by the time December comes round, I have 'greened up' on all the likely outcomes - as I have managed to do this year.
Now that I can understand doing.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

Was just considering what conclusions we could draw from the 2016 results.
Admittedly, I didn't watch the show last night, so am only looking at the final poll numbers.

- Andy Murray received twice as many votes as his nearest rival. Even if he were to have a relatively underwhelming 2017, if he makes the shortlist then we shouldn't ever underestimate his devout following.

- The Power of the Narrative. Neither Ali Brownlee or Nick Skelton were anywhere near in the betting post-Olympics. Brownlee's price nosedived after his selfless act of brotherly love at the World Series in September. Skelton's price steadily dropped after the shortlist was announced and people became increasingly aware of his back-story (no pun intended). Similarly, I guess that people also became intrigued by Sophie Christiansen's work in high-level investment banking :?

- Cycling. Is our love-affair with 2 wheels now over? Was very surprised to see both of the Kenny's poll so badly. Especially when in previous Olympic years, cyclists have fared extremely well. Just 6% of the vote between them.

- People really don't have much time for golfers.

Some early odds from Paddy Power for 2017 :

Anthony Joshua 9/4
Andy Murray 9/2
Lewis Hamilton 8/1
Rory Mcilroy 10/1
Chris Froome 10/1

Mo Farah 40/1 :)
Johanna Konta 325/1* :)


*Edit - now cut to 150/1 after I had my fill. Still decent value I reckon.
Last edited by maradonash on 19 Dec 2016, 14:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

I'm not sure the cyclist lot are\were that excited by what they did. When GB blew away the track with Hoy, Pendleton, Men's Pursuit et al then it was different as it was news etc. Not to mention that we are competitive on the road, and not just with Murdoch's money.... That said I doubt a cyclist will win for a few years (unless Cav does something big next year ie all time TdF Stage wins and something else) as we will have to wait for one of the Yates to kick on.

My money would be on an "unnamed footballer": the first to "come out". But doing that in the middle of a Paedo Scandal\Expose really does tread the stupid\brave tight wire. On the plus side, it could take the Paedo stuff out of the National Conciousness; but it could respark the "all poofs are paedo's" attitudes....

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by maradonash »

blahblah wrote:My money would be on an "unnamed footballer": the first to "come out".
No doubt that would take some beating.
The trouble is that the 'unnamed footballer' would still have to achieve something extraordinary in a sporting sense.
I'm not sure that even the BBC could be so PC as to shortlist some random full-back from a mid-table team...just because he was gay!
Perhaps some kind of carefully crafted special award for LGBT Sportsman/woman/transgender of the year will be given instead! :)

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

Arguably they would win for the "personality" bit. I say arguably as there are some very dull LGBT people.

To be fair to Murray: he does actually have one, even if people don't like it.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Surprised wrote:I just think O'Sullivan will never be shortlisted or be top 3 because too many people are fed up with his continual whining. He has been a top player for years and isn't achieving anything he hasn't done countless times before.
Said it before - He is a legend of his sport. If legends of their sports get into the shortlist - they get votes. Giggs (1st), McCoy (1st), Phil The Power Taylor (2nd), Nick Skelton (3rd). These guys didn't get votes for what they did in those specific years, they got votes cos they are popular legends.

IMO he's a value bet @100-1. I doubt there are any other better options out there that have a chance of winning that are 30-1 and above.

If anyone can pick out other legends that are outsiders - then let me know as they will be worth considering, but I don't think there are any.

Ainslie is a legend of Sailing, but not sure he's that popular. America's Cup this year, though not sure many care for that race. Also he's only 20-1 at best.


It's 99% surely going to be out of Joshua, Murray and Hamilton anyway. 3 Big names in hugely popular sports. At least one of them will have a successful year. I'm going to say O'Sullivan is the next guy in line to win, simply because if he gets in that shortlist, he could potentially get more votes than a Joshua, Hamilton, or even a Murray.

Was Johanna Konta really 325-1. Now only 50-1. People seeing value there then unsurprisingly. Still going to take a lot for her to win a major, though she's shown massive improvement, going to do well also to get votes being a 'plastic Brit', as well as hoping that Murray, Joshua, and Hamilton all fail this year. Still 325-1 is value, now at 50-1 she's not worth touching.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by forestfan »

Snooker just doesn't have the public impact these days, it still has a decent casual following i.e. a lot of people will watch a bit here and there, but not the potential for back page headlines or the passionate, dedicated niche following that might produce a SPOTY contender, whereas some minority or strongly regionalised sports like rugby league and equestrian sports have shown they can generate that.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Hotpot »

Footy66 wrote:
Surprised wrote:I just think O'Sullivan will never be shortlisted or be top 3 because too many people are fed up with his continual whining. He has been a top player for years and isn't achieving anything he hasn't done countless times before.
Said it before - He is a legend of his sport. If legends of their sports get into the shortlist - they get votes. Giggs (1st), McCoy (1st), Phil The Power Taylor (2nd), Nick Skelton (3rd). These guys didn't get votes for what they did in those specific years, they got votes cos they are popular legends.
So Nick Skelton got 3rd this year, not because he won the only Olympic gold medal of his career in 2016, but because he is a popular legend?

A popular legend :lol:

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by forestfan »

I forgot Phil Taylor had made the podium, that's more of a genuine parallel, but I suppose darts does have a pretty strong fanbase these days, even if the general public are still probably more likely to recognise the names of the inferior BDO players.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Hotpot wrote:
Footy66 wrote:If legends of their sports get into the shortlist - they get votes. Giggs (1st), McCoy (1st), Phil The Power Taylor (2nd), Nick Skelton (3rd). These guys didn't get votes for what they did in those specific years, they got votes cos they are popular legends.
So Nick Skelton got 3rd this year, not because he won the only Olympic gold medal of his career in 2016, but because he is a popular legend?

I had a feeling someone would have to be a smart ass and take the Skelton comment literally when it's pretty obvious what I meant.


Do you really think that if he was a relatively unknown 27 year old winning that Showjumping Gold that he would have came in 3rd in the SPOTY vote? You have got to be kidding if you think that?

Of course he got votes because of his Gold Medal, but his popularity and history in the Sport got him the vast majority of the votes, if he was a 27 year old with no history - he would have got bugga all votes.
Last edited by Footy66 on 21 Dec 2016, 19:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by forestfan »

Maybe if Ronnie comes back and wins a world title at the age of about 50 after a 10-year gap then he might be a serious contender...

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

forestfan wrote:Maybe if Ronnie comes back and wins a world title at the age of about 50 after a 10-year gap then he might be a serious contender...
I'm surprised anyone would dismiss Ronnie, especially this year, a non-Olympic year.

He is regarded as the most skilful, talented, and entertaining Snooker Player ever. He is up there as, if not the most, popular Snooker Player to have played the game. Snooker is on the BBC. He is a legend, and legends are popular, legends get recognition, legends do well at SPOTY.

He needs to win the first 2 majors of the year, something he is very capable of doing. Though it seems Mark Selby is a major wall in Ronnie's way. The SPOTY panel would surely have to put Ronnie into the shortlist with 2 major wins.

The problem wouldn't be him being able to get people to phone up and vote, it will be winning those 2 majors. Annoyingly the UK Championships are in December after the SPOTY shortlist is announced, so it makes it difficult for Ronnie as he has to win 2 out of 2 majors. If the UK Championships was earlier in the year, then he'd be a much much better bet.

Then again - if it's a quiet year in Sport and Ronnie wins 1 major and breaks a few Snooker milestones - then that may be enough to get into the shortlist.
Last edited by Footy66 on 21 Dec 2016, 20:12, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Hotpot »

Footy66 wrote:
Hotpot wrote:
Footy66 wrote:If legends of their sports get into the shortlist - they get votes. Giggs (1st), McCoy (1st), Phil The Power Taylor (2nd), Nick Skelton (3rd). These guys didn't get votes for what they did in those specific years, they got votes cos they are popular legends.
So Nick Skelton got 3rd this year, not because he won the only Olympic gold medal of his career in 2016, but because he is a popular legend?

I had a feeling someone would have to be a smart ass and take the Skelton comment literally when it's pretty obvious what I meant.
I also had a feeling that you would have to be a smart arse and take my comment literally when it's pretty obvious I meant something else.

I'll let you work out what I really meant.

:D

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Surprised »

Footy66 wrote:
forestfan wrote:Maybe if Ronnie comes back and wins a world title at the age of about 50 after a 10-year gap then he might be a serious contender...
I'm surprised anyone would dismiss Ronnie, especially this year, a non-Olympic year.

He is regarded as the most skilful, talented, and entertaining Snooker Player ever. He is up there as, if not the most, popular Snooker Player to have played the game. Snooker is on the BBC. He is a legend, and legends are popular, legends get recognition, legends do well at SPOTY.

He needs to win the first 2 majors of the year, something he is very capable of doing. Though it seems Mark Selby is a major wall in Ronnie's way. The SPOTY panel would surely have to put Ronnie into the shortlist with 2 major wins.

The problem wouldn't be him being able to get people to phone up and vote, it will be winning those 2 majors. Annoyingly the UK Championships are in December after the SPOTY shortlist is announced, so it makes it difficult for Ronnie as he has to win 2 out of 2 majors. If the UK Championships was earlier in the year, then he'd be a much much better bet.

Then again - if it's a quiet year in Sport and Ronnie wins 1 major and breaks a few Snooker milestones - then that may be enough to get into the shortlist.
He has NEVER been nominated. He is seen as a whiner and a moaner regardless of how good he is. Why hasn't he been nominated in past years?

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by morganb »

I agree with the 'legend of the sport ' picking up votes. Ideally you need to pick someone who has been successful and is due to retire (like when Giggs won)

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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by blahblah »

Surprised wrote:
Footy66 wrote:
forestfan wrote:Maybe if Ronnie comes back and wins a world title at the age of about 50 after a 10-year gap then he might be a serious contender...
I'm surprised anyone would dismiss Ronnie, especially this year, a non-Olympic year.

He is regarded as the most skilful, talented, and entertaining Snooker Player ever. He is up there as, if not the most, popular Snooker Player to have played the game. Snooker is on the BBC. He is a legend, and legends are popular, legends get recognition, legends do well at SPOTY.

He needs to win the first 2 majors of the year, something he is very capable of doing. Though it seems Mark Selby is a major wall in Ronnie's way. The SPOTY panel would surely have to put Ronnie into the shortlist with 2 major wins.

The problem wouldn't be him being able to get people to phone up and vote, it will be winning those 2 majors. Annoyingly the UK Championships are in December after the SPOTY shortlist is announced, so it makes it difficult for Ronnie as he has to win 2 out of 2 majors. If the UK Championships was earlier in the year, then he'd be a much much better bet.

Then again - if it's a quiet year in Sport and Ronnie wins 1 major and breaks a few Snooker milestones - then that may be enough to get into the shortlist.
He has NEVER been nominated. He is seen as a whiner and a moaner regardless of how good he is. Why hasn't he been nominated in past years?
Ouch. He is a genius and takes Snooker to the level of art not seen since Alex.

That said, no chance of SPotY....

Great pundit as well.

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Footy66
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Re: Sports Personality 2017

Post by Footy66 »

Surprised wrote:He has NEVER been nominated. He is seen as a whiner and a moaner regardless of how good he is. Why hasn't he been nominated in past years?
He likely hasn't been nominated because the UK Championships (3rd Major of the year - one of the 'triple crown') is after the SPOTY shortlist is announced.

If the UK Championships was a bit earlier the SPOTY panel would have been able to take into consideration in the years 2001, 2007, and 2014 that Ronnie won 2 majors, and surely he would have been on the shortlist in those years had the SPOTY shortlist been later or the UK Championships been earlier, but at the time of choosing the shortlist, Ronnie had only won 1 major.

O'Sullivan has never won the first 2 majors of any year. As I've said - he'll very likely need to do this to get a nomination.

Yes - he is a whiner and a moaner, which may put panelists off putting him in the shortlist, but panelists should really be focusing on his successes not a bit of whining.

Maybe Selby is also worth a punt, not yet a legend, but the World Number 1 and he could clean up all 3 majors too and he's 200-1. Though not as likely to have a chance of beating Joshua, Murray or Hamilton in a public vote, whereas O'Sullivan has the potential to.


Anyhow - O'Sullivan's my Outsider / Value bet. A lot of people not convinced by it, but then again any outsider will have negatives of some sort against them - that's why they are outsiders, and Ronnie is classed as a pretty big outsider at 100-1.

Good luck finding a better outsider who has the potential to win SPOTY. Come on guys - stick your necks out - pick one of your own outsiders........
Last edited by Footy66 on 21 Dec 2016, 23:05, edited 2 times in total.

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