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Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

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Richt
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Richt »

Shaggy. I have re-submitted my entry. I assume I am allowed to make a change or two?

Similar to when I entered your Euros game, it would be wrong for me not to tinker :shock:

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Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Shaggy365 »

Richt wrote:Shaggy. I have re-submitted my entry. I assume I am allowed to make a change or two?

Similar to when I entered your Euros game, it would be wrong for me not to tinker :shock:
Tinkering is fine. I may change mine later. Still waiting on the announcement from the UAE shooting team.

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Abumies
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Abumies »

Submitted my prediction for 6 best performing countries 8-)

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BOLTONBOY
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by BOLTONBOY »

Sent e-mail with my 6 countries.
Thanks for organising.

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bluenosey
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by bluenosey »

Team Bluganda are in :D

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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Spencer4 »

Entry emailed, looking forward to dominating from the off 8-)

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bossdrum
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by bossdrum »

My entry is sent. :P

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murf
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by murf »

Noon deadline folks.

I might miss it. Sorry....

stuboy
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by stuboy »

I sent you an email this morning Shaggy. Hoping you got it.

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Moist von Lipwig
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

PM sent this morning. used a calculator and everything.

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Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Shaggy365 »

Moist von Lipwig wrote:PM sent this morning. used a calculator and everything.
... but not your fingers to count up to 6 countries.

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Moist von Lipwig
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

Shaggy365 wrote:
Moist von Lipwig wrote:PM sent this morning. used a calculator and everything.
... but not your fingers to count up to 6 countries.

oh for christs sakes :D can I change it?

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DrBunker
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by DrBunker »

:lol: Classic!

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rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by rossn13 »

Looks like I've missed the boat on this but I challenge you to beat my selections, based solely on data analysis.

I've taken data that the FT has collated using a number of sources; Statisticians, economists and accountancy firms. Resulting in a list of the predicted number of medals for each nation.

Note: I ignored countries only predicted a single gold medal.

I've then taken the average medal points in Shaggy's game (Gold+Silver+Bronze) / 3, and multiplied this by the predicted number of medals. Finally I divided by Shaggy's country value.

USA example:
Predicted Medals - 106
Medal Points - (5+3+1)/3 = 3
Game Value - 1000

Expected Points per Value (EPPV) - (106*3)/1000 = 0.318

The top 6 countries using this method are:

Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain -------- 0.434
5th -------- Kazakhstan - 0.419
6th -------- Canada ------ 0.402

Total Cost: 1730
Predicted Points: 763

However, I need to select 6 countries that total closer to 2000 in total cost in order to improve the predicted points...

Here they are:

Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain ------- 0.434
11th ------ Ukraine ------ 0.375
14th ------ Japan -------- 0.357

Total Cost: 1984
Predicted Points: 832

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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Spencer4 »

rossn13 wrote: Here they are:

Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain ------- 0.434
11th ------ Ukraine ------ 0.375
14th ------ Japan -------- 0.357

Total Cost: 1984
Predicted Points: 832
I went for 4 of these !

Great Britain
Ukraine
Belarus
Brazil

Kenya
Jamaica

1932

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rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by rossn13 »

Spencer4 wrote: Great Britain
Ukraine
Belarus
Brazil

Kenya - 8th in EPPV
Jamaica - 26th in EPPV

1932
Predicted Score: 787

8-)

Your brain must must work like an Excel spreadsheet!

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Spencer4
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Spencer4 »

rossn13 wrote:
Spencer4 wrote: Great Britain
Ukraine
Belarus
Brazil

Kenya - 8th in EPPV
Jamaica - 26th in EPPV

1932
Predicted Score: 787

8-)

Your brain must must work like an Excel spreadsheet!
I Just put the in results from the last Olympics and calculated Shaggy's points, then made one or two presumptions and voila !!

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Surprised
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Surprised »

I am confident my list of 6 is unbeatable

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kizkiz
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by kizkiz »

So, what do i get for
usa
india
malaysia
GB
quatar
trinidadand tobago

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rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by rossn13 »

kizkiz wrote:So, what do i get for
usa
india
malaysia
GB
quatar
trinidadand tobago
Predicted Points: 633

I can't wait to see how wrong these predictions turn out to be :lol:

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Surprised
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Surprised »

Go on
tell me how good this is :)

China
Brazil
Kenya
New Zealand
Azerbaijan
Iran

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rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by rossn13 »

Surprised wrote:Go on
tell me how good this is :)

China
Brazil
Kenya
New Zealand
Azerbaijan
Iran
Predicted Points: 664

Apparently hosts win on average 32% less medals in the following games.

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Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Shaggy365 »

Finally got back from my hols so I'll be updating everything tonight. I did have a quick glance during the week, so I was able to pick up those entries that were obviously wrong (for picking too many teams etc), but the rest I'll have to trust to judgement.

I'm guessing the bbc website will have a fairly accurate medals table which should do for my needs.

CptPugwash
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by CptPugwash »

Go china , beat those smelly yanks.

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Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Shaggy365 »

Web-site finally updated.

I'll try and get round to doing a FISO-only league table in the next few days, but don't hold your breath.

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bluenosey
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by bluenosey »

Shaggy365 wrote:Web-site finally updated.

I'll try and get round to doing a FISO-only league table in the next few days, but don't hold your breath.
Excellent stuff Shaggy 8-) Looks a real chore with all thise country codes.....

Those with China are looking good. That tea is certainly making their swimmers go fast.

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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Surprised »

Thanks for the quick update
Good to see you got a good number of entrants but I knew you would!

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Spencer4
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Spencer4 »

Good stuff. Though you might like to look at Brazil's total as they have 3 medals one of each colour.

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murf
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by murf »

How come I couldn't pick Liverpool? They got an OK draw against Spurs today and have an easy looking tie against Belarusians on Thursday. Must be a chance of a medal....

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Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter

Post by Shaggy365 »

Spencer4 wrote:Good stuff. Though you might like to look at Brazil's total as they have 3 medals one of each colour.
I took the medals table from the beeb website. If it happens to be wrong on any one day, it'll just get corrected the next day (although obviously I'll try and get it right).

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