Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
- Richt
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Shaggy. I have re-submitted my entry. I assume I am allowed to make a change or two?
Similar to when I entered your Euros game, it would be wrong for me not to tinker
Similar to when I entered your Euros game, it would be wrong for me not to tinker
- Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Tinkering is fine. I may change mine later. Still waiting on the announcement from the UAE shooting team.Richt wrote:Shaggy. I have re-submitted my entry. I assume I am allowed to make a change or two?
Similar to when I entered your Euros game, it would be wrong for me not to tinker
- Abumies
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Submitted my prediction for 6 best performing countries
- BOLTONBOY
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Sent e-mail with my 6 countries.
Thanks for organising.
Thanks for organising.
- bluenosey
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Team Bluganda are in
- Spencer4
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Entry emailed, looking forward to dominating from the off
- bossdrum
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
My entry is sent.
- murf
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Noon deadline folks.
I might miss it. Sorry....
I might miss it. Sorry....
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- Dumbledore
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
I sent you an email this morning Shaggy. Hoping you got it.
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
PM sent this morning. used a calculator and everything.
- Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
... but not your fingers to count up to 6 countries.Moist von Lipwig wrote:PM sent this morning. used a calculator and everything.
- Moist von Lipwig
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Shaggy365 wrote:... but not your fingers to count up to 6 countries.Moist von Lipwig wrote:PM sent this morning. used a calculator and everything.
oh for christs sakes can I change it?
- DrBunker
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- rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Looks like I've missed the boat on this but I challenge you to beat my selections, based solely on data analysis.
I've taken data that the FT has collated using a number of sources; Statisticians, economists and accountancy firms. Resulting in a list of the predicted number of medals for each nation.
Note: I ignored countries only predicted a single gold medal.
I've then taken the average medal points in Shaggy's game (Gold+Silver+Bronze) / 3, and multiplied this by the predicted number of medals. Finally I divided by Shaggy's country value.
USA example:
Predicted Medals - 106
Medal Points - (5+3+1)/3 = 3
Game Value - 1000
Expected Points per Value (EPPV) - (106*3)/1000 = 0.318
The top 6 countries using this method are:
Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain -------- 0.434
5th -------- Kazakhstan - 0.419
6th -------- Canada ------ 0.402
Total Cost: 1730
Predicted Points: 763
However, I need to select 6 countries that total closer to 2000 in total cost in order to improve the predicted points...
Here they are:
Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain ------- 0.434
11th ------ Ukraine ------ 0.375
14th ------ Japan -------- 0.357
Total Cost: 1984
Predicted Points: 832
I've taken data that the FT has collated using a number of sources; Statisticians, economists and accountancy firms. Resulting in a list of the predicted number of medals for each nation.
Note: I ignored countries only predicted a single gold medal.
I've then taken the average medal points in Shaggy's game (Gold+Silver+Bronze) / 3, and multiplied this by the predicted number of medals. Finally I divided by Shaggy's country value.
USA example:
Predicted Medals - 106
Medal Points - (5+3+1)/3 = 3
Game Value - 1000
Expected Points per Value (EPPV) - (106*3)/1000 = 0.318
The top 6 countries using this method are:
Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain -------- 0.434
5th -------- Kazakhstan - 0.419
6th -------- Canada ------ 0.402
Total Cost: 1730
Predicted Points: 763
However, I need to select 6 countries that total closer to 2000 in total cost in order to improve the predicted points...
Here they are:
Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain ------- 0.434
11th ------ Ukraine ------ 0.375
14th ------ Japan -------- 0.357
Total Cost: 1984
Predicted Points: 832
- Spencer4
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
I went for 4 of these !rossn13 wrote: Here they are:
Position - Country ---- EPPV
1st -------- India --------- 0.504
2nd ------- Brazil --------- 0.479
3rd -------- Belarus ------ 0.448
4th -------- Britain ------- 0.434
11th ------ Ukraine ------ 0.375
14th ------ Japan -------- 0.357
Total Cost: 1984
Predicted Points: 832
Great Britain
Ukraine
Belarus
Brazil
Kenya
Jamaica
1932
- rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Predicted Score: 787Spencer4 wrote: Great Britain
Ukraine
Belarus
Brazil
Kenya - 8th in EPPV
Jamaica - 26th in EPPV
1932
Your brain must must work like an Excel spreadsheet!
- Spencer4
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
I Just put the in results from the last Olympics and calculated Shaggy's points, then made one or two presumptions and voila !!rossn13 wrote:Predicted Score: 787Spencer4 wrote: Great Britain
Ukraine
Belarus
Brazil
Kenya - 8th in EPPV
Jamaica - 26th in EPPV
1932
Your brain must must work like an Excel spreadsheet!
- Surprised
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
I am confident my list of 6 is unbeatable
- kizkiz
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
So, what do i get for
usa
india
malaysia
GB
quatar
trinidadand tobago
usa
india
malaysia
GB
quatar
trinidadand tobago
- rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Predicted Points: 633kizkiz wrote:So, what do i get for
usa
india
malaysia
GB
quatar
trinidadand tobago
I can't wait to see how wrong these predictions turn out to be
- Surprised
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Go on
tell me how good this is
China
Brazil
Kenya
New Zealand
Azerbaijan
Iran
tell me how good this is
China
Brazil
Kenya
New Zealand
Azerbaijan
Iran
- rossn13
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Predicted Points: 664Surprised wrote:Go on
tell me how good this is
China
Brazil
Kenya
New Zealand
Azerbaijan
Iran
Apparently hosts win on average 32% less medals in the following games.
- Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Finally got back from my hols so I'll be updating everything tonight. I did have a quick glance during the week, so I was able to pick up those entries that were obviously wrong (for picking too many teams etc), but the rest I'll have to trust to judgement.
I'm guessing the bbc website will have a fairly accurate medals table which should do for my needs.
I'm guessing the bbc website will have a fairly accurate medals table which should do for my needs.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Go china , beat those smelly yanks.
- Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Web-site finally updated.
I'll try and get round to doing a FISO-only league table in the next few days, but don't hold your breath.
I'll try and get round to doing a FISO-only league table in the next few days, but don't hold your breath.
- bluenosey
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Excellent stuff Shaggy Looks a real chore with all thise country codes.....Shaggy365 wrote:Web-site finally updated.
I'll try and get round to doing a FISO-only league table in the next few days, but don't hold your breath.
Those with China are looking good. That tea is certainly making their swimmers go fast.
- Surprised
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Thanks for the quick update
Good to see you got a good number of entrants but I knew you would!
Good to see you got a good number of entrants but I knew you would!
- Spencer4
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
Good stuff. Though you might like to look at Brazil's total as they have 3 medals one of each colour.
- murf
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
How come I couldn't pick Liverpool? They got an OK draw against Spurs today and have an easy looking tie against Belarusians on Thursday. Must be a chance of a medal....
- Shaggy365
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Re: Fantasy Olympics 2012 - Free to enter
I took the medals table from the beeb website. If it happens to be wrong on any one day, it'll just get corrected the next day (although obviously I'll try and get it right).Spencer4 wrote:Good stuff. Though you might like to look at Brazil's total as they have 3 medals one of each colour.
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