GW5 FPL Wildcard

[zipnolan]

FWIW, I did my own (possibly flawed) analysis of 3 premium vs 2 premium. I can really only see benefit in a "free hit" week. Otherwise, effectively, you'll be reducing a squad of 14 (one non-rotating GK) to one of 13 (one additional non-playing, say, forward). The numbers don't stack up for me over any extended period of time. They look superficially attractive because you can have exactly the same defence and midfield for Ron+Rom+4.5 as you can for, say, Ron+Bamford+Jimenez. But - at least according to my analysis - the potential points of Bam+Jim + flexibility to swap for others are greater than they are for R+R+4.5. Amongst the others there are probably some dicey defenders and midfielders that you want to play only very sparingly, so effectively you are defining your starting line up when making your squad. I won't bore everyone with the actual numbers, but even over 5-6 weeks the squad with the two mid-priced forwards outperforms the one with the dud.

[eastcentral1]

FWIW, I did my own (possibly flawed) analysis of 3 premium vs 2 premium. I can really only see benefit in a "free hit" week. Otherwise, effectively, you'll be reducing a squad of 14 (one non-rotating GK) to one of 13 (one additional non-playing, say, forward). The numbers don't stack up for me over any extended period of time. They look superficially attractive because you can have exactly the same defence and midfield for Ron+Rom+4.5 as you can for, say, Ron+Bamford+Jimenez. But - at least according to my analysis - the potential points of Bam+Jim + flexibility to swap for others are greater than they are for R+R+4.5. Amongst the others there are probably some dicey defenders and midfielders that you want to play only very sparingly, so effectively you are defining your starting line up when making your squad. I won't bore everyone with the actual numbers, but even over 5-6 weeks the squad with the two mid-priced forwards outperforms the one with the dud.

over an extended period of time, yes. but what about over the next 3 game weeks only? when there is little to separate ron & rom's fixtures, and while antonio / dcl miss out...

[Pirlo's Beard]

Does anyone else think blah has become a bit dull recently?

Yeah, he's sold out and gone all mainstream. I prefer his earlier stuff.

[Smurphy Paw]

Does anyone else think blah has become a bit dull recently?

Not unless you get him started on three Liverpool defenders. Have you heard about that one?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Does anyone else think blah has become a bit dull recently?

Not unless you get him started on three Liverpool defenders. Have you heard about that one?

Does anyone else think blah has become a bit dull recently?

Yeah, he's sold out and gone all mainstream. I prefer his earlier stuff.

[Smurphy Paw]

@ec1 ^^^ - thanks

@zip - interesting, that corroborates my thinking having used other people’s calculators such as FFFix.
The follow up question was about short time frame. There’ll be more noise, on wildcard there’s better scope to identify subs who complement each other. Nothing to say it won’t or can’t work out well. I am looking at the team structure to be resilient in the medium term and I think that is more important even though I have FOMO

[zipnolan]

@zip - interesting, that corroborates my thinking having used other people’s calculators such as FFFix.
The follow up question was about short time frame. There’ll be more noise, on wildcard there’s better scope to identify subs who complement each other. Nothing to say it won’t or can’t work out well. I am looking at the team structure to be resilient in the medium term and I think that is more important even though I have FOMO

Yes, I used the GW5-8 projections on FFH. There is no doubt in my mind that the longer you go on, the less attractive three premiums become. The caveats to me are (1) with the particular players I used, Bamford and Jimenez will suddenly have to start returning points and (2) my sense is that projection tools tend to be conservative with ultra-premium players - we know that any of the big three can tear it up at any time. My sense is that MU are more likely to score liberally than Chelsea, but that may just be irrational bias on my part. Anyway, Ronaldo/Salah are my chosen pairing for a start.

[blahblah]

Does anyone else think blah has become a bit dull recently?

Not unless you get him started on three Liverpool defenders. Have you heard about that one?

Does anyone else think blah has become a bit dull recently?

Yeah, he's sold out and gone all mainstream. I prefer his earlier stuff.

[SirMattBugsby]

Are Leeds and Wolves players worth wildcarding? I essentially have a structure in place to get Chelsea players in 7 and could replace Bachmann, Digne and Barnes with Sa, Semedo/Marcal and Bamford. Downside is difficulty in getting Man City assets for GW 8 (could get 1 or 2 now). Team right now is:

Bachmann Foster
Trent Shaw Digne Veltman 4.0
Salah Jota Raph Ben Barnes
Ronaldo Antonio 4.5

[djskope]

Taken a huge gamble, wildcarded and went 3 premium at earliest opportunity for incoming GW5

Trying to get ahead of the curve with the current 'big 3' involved taking some huuuge punts i.e. signing Ramsdale, Marcal, Tomiyasu, Gray, Omobambidele and Hwang

This high-risk approach may, (or may not) pay off.

OTOH, a positive side effect which is tangible and not mentioned very much is the overall effect of Wildcard / timing -> Team value

i.e. I started the GW on 100.9m.
After executing these transfers I lost -0.6m accrued value and went down to 100.3
During the past few days I have regained +0.7m so am now on 101.0

Checking the markets on FFFix today, I noticed that *every single player* in my new squad is trending upwards (+ve Progress / Hour)

This is the 1st time this has ever happened to me.

In addition, 6 more rises are predicated for tonight, + 4 more tomorrow night = +1.0million !

I do understand FFFix could be quite optimistic and also the rate will slow down after deadline.

Even so, even if only half of those rise, 0.5 + the bagged 0.7 = 1.2 million gross TV increase in the space of just over one gameweek = pretty respectable.

I feel like I have taken care of the money side - now it is up to my players to perform on the pitch!

[Ruth_NZ]

Am wildcarding this week too but haven't wanted to read here (or anywhere else) until my mind was made up.

Like everyone, I have toyed with what wahine termed the threemium approach. But not for long really. Anything in that direction is way too dependent on 5.5-6.5m midfielders for my liking and in addition it distorts the structure, even if it is planned as a short-term measure. I am increasingly coming to the view that with a wildcard you are buying price points and structure more than anything else. Getting the players right is always nice but players can be changed more easily than a structure can. In addition, I think most GW5 wildcarders will have been burned last week (as I was) by no Lukaku, no Ronaldo. That was a particularly risky week with both having nice home games (didn't we all know it in advance?) but they aren't both going to score braces every week. So it seems to me to be important not to let the reaction to GW4 distort the GW5 wildcard; it's about setting a long-term direction, not about chasing last week's points (or even chasing this week's points).

There are certainly things we don't yet know and/or haven't yet seen but on reflection there's a surprising amount we do know and we know it pretty much for sure. One is that budget is going to be stressed this season; the addition of Lukaku and CR7 into the game has ensured that. That should already give a steer about structure. This is an inconvenient week in terms of Chelsea/City/United combinations but the underlying picture about how a squad needs to be seems fairly clear to me. That's what I have based my wildcard on rather than short-term considerations (though I did incorporate some short-term tweaks once the structure was settled).

My biggest fear with my chosen route is the appearance of one or more get out of jail free cards. Structurally unsound teams with 3 super-premiums shouldn't work unless a get out of jail free card appears to rescue them, by which I mean a cheap player (even two) that performs miracles for a while, even a long while (think Dallas last season). Might be a defender like Livramento or Marcal. Might be a midfielder like Gray, Gallacher or Elyounoussi. Whoever it is, the maxed-out teams will jump on them fast because they will desperately need them. And if they then go on doing unduly well it can undo all the good work of a better-structured team and leave the maxed-out team at advantage.

Those get out of jail free players are the ones that usually frustrate the hell out of me in FPL. I mostly don't mind too much if a big player I don't have hauls; the risk was consciously taken and people have paid 12m or whatever for those points. It's relatively easy to take that on the chin. It's when a popular, cheap enabler they only have because they are cheap (and enabling) suddenly starts performing like a 6m defender or an 8m midfielder. I always resent those points much more. So my hope is that those fireflies are short-lived when they appear; a nice chain of cheap midfielders that do well briefly and then dry up, using yet another transfer, that's the ideal.

Wish you all GL with your wildcard.

[goooner]

No love for Teemu Pukki in here? On the FFS predictions Up to GW 14 hes on 41,82 points compared to Bamford on 45,27 and Jimenez on 41,06.
And 1,5-2 million less….
Im going for Ronaldo, Bamford and Pukki now and instead double up on both Semedo Marcal for 3 GWs. Think both have a chance to outscore Jimenez.
Semedo than is an easy move to double up on Chelsea defence instead in GW 7-8 - GW 14 and than to Shaw again in GW 14

[Multiple Scorgasms]

Had both Ronaldo and Lukaku to try and make some money. Now I come to finalise my team and can't decide. They have both risen .1 which is a pain as taking one out wouldn't bank anything.

I may run with it and save 2 transfers, then see if any dust has settled.

Sent from my SM-A515F using Tapatalk

[flare2]

No love for Dele Alli? Seems to be recovering a bit of his pre-2018 form.

[Hotstepper]

Oh quick help please...
Jota & Pukki or
Gray & Bamford?

[Mo Bot]

Option 2 for me

[TheBigLewandowski]

Marcal or White?

[Hotstepper]

Option 2 for me

Thanks Mo Bot

[Mo Bot]

Marcal or White?

It’s a toss up. I chose Marcal so you might want to avoid him

[yakflange]

Really like that Mo Bot, although I can't see why you wouldn't want TAA. Personally, I really like the Pogba pick.

Pogba was in my first draft, tempting at the price with the form he's in, but then fixtures get worse and look at his hot/cold performances from previous seasons...

[blahblah]

Option 2 for me

Thanks Mo Bot

Me 3 as I have them both.

[Mo Bot]

I’m sticking with Pogba for a couple of weeks anyway. I really think Mount is underpricedbut the benching last week put me off for now

[yakflange]

No love for Teemu Pukki in here? On the FFS predictions Up to GW 14 hes on 41,82 points compared to Bamford on 45,27 and Jimenez on 41,06.
And 1,5-2 million less….
Im going for Ronaldo, Bamford and Pukki now and instead double up on both Semedo Marcal for 3 GWs. Think both have a chance to outscore Jimenez.
Semedo than is an easy move to double up on Chelsea defence instead in GW 7-8 - GW 14 and than to Shaw again in GW 14

I spent a long time deciding between forwards at £6.5m right down to Dennis at £5.3m, and decided Pukki was my best option - hopeful he might hit a bit of form, with kind fixtures coming, and notch a few goals even if Norwich draw or lose.

[blahblah]

I’m sticking with Pogba for a couple of weeks anyway. I really think Mount is underpricedbut the benching last week put me off for now

That's why I went for Lulu: as he will start more than Chelsea's AM's......

[TheBigLewandowski]

Marcal or White?

It’s a toss up. I chose Marcal so you might want to avoid him

Thanks Mo Bot, fwiw I went Marcal

[thebillfella]

Cancelo and Gallagher or Benrahma and Rudiger...

[Smurphy Paw]

Cancelo and Gallagher or Benrahma and Rudiger...

Tough one. Not sure Benrahma is the option any more. Bin him

[Aldershot Rejects]

Really like that Mo Bot, although I can't see why you wouldn't want TAA. Personally, I really like the Pogba pick.

Pogba was in my first draft, tempting at the price with the form he's in, but then fixtures get worse and look at his hot/cold performances from previous seasons...

yeah, it was the fixtures put me off (along with the fact that I can't afford him if I pick a third forward ). At the moment though with the number of assists he is getting he is pretty much covering the whole attack (he's assisted over 60% of the goals they've scored so far). I'm pretty sure that's not sustainable but if you are going for a single Utd attacker he might be the one with the greatest goal involvement.

[blahblah]

Cancelo and Gallagher or Benrahma and Rudiger...

Tough one. Not sure Benrahma is the option any more. Bin him

Yep. He plays for Leeds now

[Smurphy Paw]

Cancelo and Gallagher or Benrahma and Rudiger...

Tough one. Not sure Benrahma is the option any more. Bin him

Yep. He plays for Leeds now

Huh? I may have missed a gag there.
But time is tight so… I got rid of Benrahma, concerned that his game time has been under threat. It didn’t bode well