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DGWks etc

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eastcentral1
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Re: DGWks etc

Post by eastcentral1 »


TheRumourMill wrote:Crellin has been useless this season. Predicted the dgw26 doubles, well done, they were obvious. Completely blindsided by both dgw24 and dgw25, and has been claiming over the last couple of weeks there's a "65% chance" of villa v Everton dropping into both 28 and 30, which is an insult to percentages. Now he's saying that's not going to happen after all! The emporer has no clothes, does he?
If you think him giving a 65% chance of an event happening, and then that event doesn't happen, means that he was wrong then I don't think you understand percentages. Also, as far as I recall his probability of a DGW for AVL EVE in 28 was as low as 10% at one point.

Anyway, if you're going to trash him I think you need to be more specific with your charges, and cite the posts you are referring to.

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Klopp-o-matic
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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Klopp-o-matic »

Is this correct:

Spurs
Eve
Sou
AV

Are the only teams that have one "extra" game to play somewhere ("to be confirmed")?

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by TheRumourMill »

eastcentral1 wrote: 16 Mar 2021, 07:59
TheRumourMill wrote:Crellin has been useless this season. Predicted the dgw26 doubles, well done, they were obvious. Completely blindsided by both dgw24 and dgw25, and has been claiming over the last couple of weeks there's a "65% chance" of villa v Everton dropping into both 28 and 30, which is an insult to percentages. Now he's saying that's not going to happen after all! The emporer has no clothes, does he?
If you think him giving a 65% chance of an event happening, and then that event doesn't happen, means that he was wrong then I don't think you understand percentages. Also, as far as I recall his probability of a DGW for AVL EVE in 28 was as low as 10% at one point.

Anyway, if you're going to trash him I think you need to be more specific with your charges, and cite the posts you are referring to.
If he gives a 65% chance of an event happening and it doesn't happen then it doesn't make him completely wrong, no. But it sure as hell makes him more wrong than right :lol: also he can't keep claiming it has a 65% chance every single week, anyone can do that!

It may well have been as low as 10% at one point but since dgw25 he's been claiming it's about 65% until about last Wednesday when he finally accepted it wasn't going to happen. I'm not trawling through his Twitter to find evidence though, there may be a lockdown on but I'm not that bored (yet!). It's there though if you want to find it, that's why I mentioned it as I remember it happening.

I appreciate it's been the craziest season of all time in terms of fixture rescheduling. He did call the spurs v fulham rearrangement in 18 correct which was a tough call so credit there. But if you're styling yourself as a blank and doubles guru then I think you need a higher hit rate, personally. I think Ruth on here called villas rearrangement in 19 before crellin did, and the athletic have been breaking fixture news really quickly too, including this proposed shift in 35-37. From reading that athletic article I'd be expecting a small blank in 36 and a medium sized double in 35, with 35 taking in the 36 blanks caused by the fa cup final and the current outstanding fixtures (villa v Eve and sot v spurs), but then I'm not claiming to be an "expert" so take it with a pinch of salt ;-)

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

eastcentral1 wrote:If you think him giving a 65% chance of an event happening, and then that event doesn't happen, means that he was wrong then I don't think you understand percentages.
Correct. What makes him wrong is that it was never a 65% chance anywhere but down the rabbit hole into which he has dived. It was always highly unlikely. When that became evident he switched to GW30/31 being a 60% chance. Now that's out and now he says that it's probably going to be the late-season free slot (GW37 or GW35 if the schedule is revised). Well, he got there in the end. :roll: That was by far the most likely outcome all along.

He got it badly wrong because he made a fundamentally flawed assumption. I have tried, on and off, to point this out but seeing that Guru Crellin is "The Don" as someone put it, that has generally not been well received. Fair enough, each to their own. But just because someone can make a pretty spreadsheet it doesn't make them an expert on anything except, maybe, on how to make a pretty spreadsheet. :lol:

The broader question is which do people give more credibility to?
  1. Dubious information presented in an attractive and graphic way?
  2. Good information presented in a mediocre or mundane way?
I think you know the answer, EC, and that's the rub of it. "In regione caecorum rex est luscus."

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Klopp-o-matic wrote: Is this correct? Spurs, Eve, Sou, AV are the only teams that have one "extra" game to play somewhere ("to be confirmed")?
Yes but the FAC SFs and Final will also cause postponements in due course.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Patrician »

TheRumourMill wrote: 15 Mar 2021, 23:16 Crellin has been useless this season. Predicted the dgw26 doubles, well done, they were obvious. Completely blindsided by both dgw24 and dgw25, and has been claiming over the last couple of weeks there's a "65% chance" of villa v Everton dropping into both 28 and 30, which is an insult to percentages. Now he's saying that's not going to happen after all! The emporer has no clothes, does he?
I'm sure he has been useless, but not sure it is an insult to percentages:

If an event is 66% likely to happen GW 28, 22% likely to happen in GW 29 and 11% likely to happen some other time

Then GW28 passes and it doesn't happen...

It is now 66% likely to happen in GW 29 and 33% likely to happen some other time.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by TheRumourMill »

Guys thanks for the explanation about percentages. I'll be giving 110% in my efforts to get this right in future.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Smurphy Paw »

As I pointed out at the time, it was someone else who majored on the potential GW28 analysis after BC had initially acknowledged that is was less likely. BC corroborated that there was a logic to that person’s rationale (the potential Arsenal/Spurs Europa League scheduling issue that turned out not to be a issue).

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Sutter Kane »

Now that Southampton have beaten Bournemouth in the FA Cup, am I correct in assuming there is next to zero chance of a GW32 Spurs double? [S'ton Palace more likely to move to midweek as CP won't have played that week in any competition]

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Sutter Kane wrote: Now that Southampton have beaten Bournemouth in the FA Cup, am I correct in assuming there is next to zero chance of a GW32 Spurs double? [S'ton Palace more likely to move to midweek as CP won't have played that week in any competition]
Could be 32, could be 35. More likely 35 I guess.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Sutter Kane »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 20 Mar 2021, 19:13
Sutter Kane wrote: Now that Southampton have beaten Bournemouth in the FA Cup, am I correct in assuming there is next to zero chance of a GW32 Spurs double? [S'ton Palace more likely to move to midweek as CP won't have played that week in any competition]
Could be 32, could be 35. More likely 35 I guess.
Cheers. That's what I thought. Makes a diff to my WC timing and therefore my GW30/1 transfers.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Bobby Fetta »

At the risk of being a cretin (colourful spreadsheet and lashings of guesswork), here is my understanding of the outstanding fixtures, with my predicted rearrangements in yellow.
fixtures.PNG
I haven't done enough research to be a twitter don but this is based on the following assumptions:
- FA Cup disrupted matches are reschuduled to the adjacent empty slot
- The PL moves the GW37 matches from the weekend of the 15 May to midweek (18 May) and the GW36 matches to that weekend (11 to 15 May). My uninformed understanding is that this is likely to happen (to allow crowds at the last home game for each team) but not yet formally agreed?
- Regarding the status of the May 11 midweek. It would make sense to me to leave that as gw36. But the comments I've seen here and elsewhere seems to assume it would become gw35. Is there any reason for that?

By my guesswork:
- Villa - Everton would become a double in GW36 (or 35, depending on how FPL headquarters arrange it).
- Spurs - Southampton could slot into the same midweek if Southampton lose their FA Cup semi final. But if they win, they'd need to rearrange the Spurs game for gw33 or gw34 at relatively short notice. So maybe the PL are proactive and arrange that fixture in one of the four European midweeks anyway.
- there are no other double gameweeks?

I am not claiming to be an expert here. Just hoping someone will point out my mistakes!
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Ruth_NZ
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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

This is how it looks to me:

Soton v Palace gets played midweek GW32, not a DGW for either.
Villa v Everton goes into midweek GW32, not a DGW for Villa but it would be for Everton (TOT avl).

Villa v City, Spurs v Soton go into GW35, creating a DGW for those 4 teams. GW32 would be blank for City. My reasoning for this is that it's less likely that City or Spurs are asked to play midweek before the League Cup Final.

Chelsea v Brighton, Leicester v WBA could go into 32 or 35 equally easily and the broadcasters will have doubtless have a say about which. If either game is played in 32 there would be no blank for those teams. If 35 then a blank in 32 and a DGW in 35.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 21 Mar 2021, 20:48 Villa v City, Spurs v Soton go into GW35, creating a DGW for those 4 teams. GW32 would be blank for City. My reasoning for this is that it's less likely that City or Spurs are asked to play midweek before the League Cup Final.

Chelsea v Brighton, Leicester v WBA could go into 32 or 35 equally easily and the broadcasters will have doubtless have a say about which. If either game is played in 32 there would be no blank for those teams. If 35 then a blank in 32 and a DGW in 35.
Interesting. But what happens about the FA Cup final weekend fixtures that will need to be rearranged? For example, worst case scenario of City keep winning all their games, where does their match against Newcastle go? That's why I'm assuming the semi-final rearranged matches just get moved to the adjacent midweek - saving "gw35" (or 36 as I'm calling it) for the two matches affected by the final.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bobby Fetta wrote:Interesting. But what happens about the FA Cup final weekend fixtures that will need to be rearranged? For example, worst case scenario of City keep winning all their games, where does their match against Newcastle go?
Good point. The vagueness is partly because we are only guessing about how the schedule will/may be rearranged to allow fans at the last 2 games.

The biggest problem is Southampton, no? If they reach the FAC Final they will have 3 games to re-schedule and only 2 slots available. So we can certainly (95%) say they will have a midweek game GW32 and no blank. You are right to say that City could need both free slots, so Villa v City should be 32 as well, in which case they'd maybe even it out by putting Spurs v Soton in that midweek as well, meaning it's the same for both teams going into the LC Final.

If that's correct and the other fixtures affected by the FAC SFs go into the following midweek then the net effect in GW32 would be minimal - a blank for Palace and a DGW for Spurs (eve SOU). Is that how you see it?

That would leave Soton v Palace, Villa v Everton and whatever games have to be re-scheduled as a result of the FAC Final to go into the late-season slot. Only a problem if Southampton reach the FAC Final, in which case one of their games would need to slide into an European midweek.

Having the FH available for that late-season DGW could actually be quite useful. Hope so because I missed a ton of points by not using it in GW29. :)

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by TheRumourMill »

I would agree with you Bobby that the 4 teams affected by the FA CUP final and who therefore blank in GW36 would just simply have those games moved into the midweek beforehand - GW35. And then bung in the everton villa nd southampton spurs games into the same midweek. Seems the neatest solution?

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 22 Mar 2021, 11:31 The biggest problem is Southampton, no? If they reach the FAC Final they will have 3 games to re-schedule and only 2 slots available. So we can certainly (95%) say they will have a midweek game GW32 and no blank. You are right to say that City could need both free slots, so Villa v City should be 32 as well, in which case they'd maybe even it out by putting Spurs v Soton in that midweek as well, meaning it's the same for both teams going into the LC Final.

If that's correct and the other fixtures affected by the FAC SFs go into the following midweek then the net effect in GW32 would be minimal - a blank for Palace and a DGW for Spurs (eve SOU). Is that how you see it?
Yes, that is how I see it. As you say, Southampton are the problem at the moment. So I'd go up to 99% certain their game against CRY or tot goes into midweek gw32 (which would be a double for spurs if they get it but not the others). Interesting idea about parity of preparation time the LC final - that makes sense to me. To be fair City have been playing twice a week all season so its not unusual for them to have little prep time. My prediction would be that the PL will 'hope' Southampton lose their semi final so they can use the 35/36 slot for the other game and defer that rearrangement.

I'll keep banging on about the second empty slot staying in gw36 (not becoming dgw35) until someone addresses the point :lol: Is there a good source of information on this that doesn't rhyme with Pen Sellin'?

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Bobby Fetta »

TheRumourMill wrote: 22 Mar 2021, 11:46 I would agree with you Bobby that the 4 teams affected by the FA CUP final and who therefore blank in GW36 would just simply have those games moved into the midweek beforehand - GW35. And then bung in the everton villa nd southampton spurs games into the same midweek. Seems the neatest solution?
As above, yes, but that only works if Southampton lose in the semis (as is likely). And could still be classed as gw36 :) ?

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bobby Fetta wrote:I'll keep banging on about the second empty slot staying in gw36 (not becoming dgw35) until someone addresses the point :lol: Is there a good source of information on this that doesn't rhyme with Pen Sellin'?
Guru "the Don" Crellin isn't a source, he's a pundit. :P

It's not usual that FPL move deadlines (though they do change the times on occasion) but it's also not usual that the entire schedule is re-cast, in fact the only time that ever happened that I know of was post-lockdown and didn't they re-make the GWs then? The short answer is nobody knows for sure but seeing the games for 36 & 37 would be moving as a block it would make most sense if the GW deadlines moved with them.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Ruth_NZ wrote: 22 Mar 2021, 13:37 It's not usual that FPL move deadlines (though they do change the times on occasion) but it's also not usual that the entire schedule is re-cast, in fact the only time that ever happened that I know of was post-lockdown and didn't they re-make the GWs then? The short answer is nobody knows for sure but seeing the games for 36 & 37 would be moving as a block it would make most sense if the GW deadlines moved with them.
If the PL do this sensibly they would only need to move one deadline:
- current gw36 deadline is on Tuesday 11 May. If Leicester beat Southampton and get to the FA Cup final, the Man United vs Leicester match could stay exactly where it is on that evening and the deadline is unchanged. Likewise the Chelsea vs Arsenal or Newcastle vs City matches could move from Wednesday to Tuesday evening (just like normal with matches being moved around a bit within a gameweek for TV) to give sufficient and equal lead-in to the FA Cup final.
- current gw37 deadline is Saturday 15 May. That would move to Tuesday 18 May. Deadlines do move around quite often when they determine the TV schedule - e.g. Friday night matches. This is just a more extreme version of that - the order of matches stays the same, just tweaking the dates a bit.

But we can't rely on the PL being sensible. I am still stunned that they postponed the Leeds-Southampton match because of Covid cases at Shrewsbury. So who knows :D

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bobby Fetta wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: It's not usual that FPL move deadlines (though they do change the times on occasion) but it's also not usual that the entire schedule is re-cast, in fact the only time that ever happened that I know of was post-lockdown and didn't they re-make the GWs then? The short answer is nobody knows for sure but seeing the games for 36 & 37 would be moving as a block it would make most sense if the GW deadlines moved with them?
If the PL do this sensibly they would only need to move one deadline... But we can't rely on the PL being sensible.
Yeah, it's true what you are saying and it would actually make a big difference. The way Crellin has sketched it out creates a BGW36 for 4 teams and a DGW35 for (probably) 8 teams. Your sketch eliminates any BGW and creates a smaller DGW36 for just 4 teams.

Actually makes a fair bit of difference for me. I am tempted to save the 2WC until GW34, partly because GW35/6 will be very tricky if Crellin is right (= a big opportunity). But if it goes the way you suggest a lot of that melts away and GW31 looks more favourable overall, especially if the GW32 games have been scheduled by then (which they should be). It even makes a difference this week because what I would do if WC31 would be different to my route if WC34. :?

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by TheRumourMill »

DGW32 announced for Spurs:

(eve, SOU)

Right before a blanks for Spurs in GW33. Which makes it kinda awkward, and also makes a GW31 wildcard somewhat less powerful. Interested to hear thoughts on strategy for this period now.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Gambit »

TheRumourMill wrote: 30 Mar 2021, 16:21 DGW32 announced for Spurs:

(eve, SOU)

Right before a blanks for Spurs in GW33. Which makes it kinda awkward, and also makes a GW31 wildcard somewhat less powerful. Interested to hear thoughts on strategy for this period now.
Kane would be in most GW31 wildcards i would think so the question is what to do with Son.

Cant see any reason for three Spurs players; the full backs rotate, the other defenders dont look great, bale wont play both if it all, the rest of them are meh. Kane and Son are sufficient for me. I already own both so choice would be keep them on the wc, lose son but then bring him back in 32 for the double or maybe even delay the wc.

I wont be picking three city on the WC so not too worried about 33 and benching son and kane as i’d certainly want them for Sheff United at home in gw34.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by fred1266 »

with Davies injured Regulon might not be rotated

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Gambit »

fred1266 wrote: 30 Mar 2021, 21:57 with Davies injured Regulon might not be rotated
Good point, in that case i make take 3 spurs on the wc, bench them in 33 and then have them for the excellent sheff u and leeds fixtures in 34 and 35, in fact, they have wolves and villa both at home in 36 and 37 so their fixtures are much better than i thought.

They have not been playing well but having a dgw and facing some of the most porous teams in the league is a strong pull.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Ruth_NZ »

fred1266 wrote: With Davies injured Regulon might not be rotated.
Was thinking that too but reports seem to indicate he'll be back by GW32. Problem being the EFL Final, so the temptation for Mourinho to rest some players ahead of it will be significant. Reguilon would certainly get in my team if it seemed likely he'd start both games of the DGW.

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Billy Bongo »

I like the fact many are just shutting down the idea of 3 spurs without a second glance, means Lucas Moura is a good punt

I love From4Corners


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Re: DGWks etc

Post by Oxford NZ »

Billy Bongo wrote: 01 Apr 2021, 07:49 I like the fact many are just shutting down the idea of 3 spurs without a second glance, means Lucas Moura is a good punt

I love From4Corners
Means loving F4C is not the only interesting idea you have had recently :wink:

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Re: DGWks etc

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Re: DGWks etc

Post by TheRumourMill »

I hope they keep this in the same gameweek.

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