If you have both Salah & Mane

[xJosh-]

Those of you who have both Salah and Mane who are you captaining?

Mane with the superior away record or Salah on pens in slightly better form with the added creativity.

I feel the other captaincy poll skews this opinion a little bit as a lot of us only have Mane or Salah with 2 defenders. I want to try determine which side the coin landed on if you have both.

[megadyl]

I only have Mane and am doing TC on Robbo but if I had Salah I wouldn’t hesitate to give him the armband. Watching Liverpool over the last few years Mane and Salah both seem to go on hot streaks where they have 7 or 8 games where the can’t stop scoring. Salah seems to be starting one of those for me.


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[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Absolutely not a clue yet, haven't decided if I'm using the TC yet either so I'm very interested in the outcome of this as well

[sstaffsw]

Good poll. Will make a last minute decision based on the result.

[Resonare]

Some stats might help. According to livefpl.net, Salah is owned by ~30% of the Top 10k and Mané by ~77%, with about 12% owning both. Crunch the numbers based on captaincy polls and how many are TC'ing and Salah's EO will roughly be at ~60% while Mané's will be ~125%.

Now the issue with this is that people are still bringing these players in so the ownership stats will only keep increasing nearer to the deadline. Also, I've applied the rate of captaincy from a sample of managers from the FFS captaincy poll where Salah is likely more owned than in the Top 10k, so Mané's EO will almost certainly be higher than 125% and more to the tune of 135-160% imo, which makes Salah a far better TC for chasing than I had ever imagined, likely to have barely 50% EO despite leading the captaincy polls everywhere.

So it's likely Salah TC for me after all. Feel free to post your own calculations if mine are way off, I'd like an excuse to switch back to Mané again

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

I guess I need to decide if I am chasing or leading. I'm top of every mini league that matters and can't see that changing with the gaps I have in them so not worried about them.

OR is 31k, am I chasing the top 10k or am I defending the top 100k...

[xJosh-]

Some stats might help. According to livefpl.net, Salah is owned by ~30% of the Top 10k and Mané by ~77%, with about 12% owning both. Crunch the numbers based on captaincy polls and how many are TC'ing and Salah's EO will roughly be at ~60% while Mané's will be ~125%.

Now the issue with this is that people are still bringing these players in so the ownership stats will only keep increasing nearer to the deadline. Also, I've applied the rate of captaincy from a sample of managers from the FFS captaincy poll where Salah is likely more owned than in the Top 10k, so Mané's EO will almost certainly be higher than 125% and more to the tune of 135-160% imo, which makes Salah a far better TC for chasing than I had ever imagined, likely to have barely 50% EO despite leading the captaincy polls everywhere.

So it's likely Salah TC for me after all. Feel free to post your own calculations if mine are way off, I'd like an excuse to switch back to Mané again

I did understand this post but whats EO? haha I've swapped it to and from myself. I'm 40 points ahead in my main cash mini league, 2nd, 3rd, 4th all own Mane and not Salah. I own both but I wildcarded so I am unable to TC. Concerned that they'll TC Mane or even just captain Mane and if I captain Salah I'm not blocking them but cant help but feel Salah will score more even with his poor away record comparted to Mane & Firmino so I want to go with him regardless.

I guess I need to decide if I am chasing or leading. I'm top of every mini league that matters and can't see that changing with the gaps I have in them so not worried about them.

OR is 31k, am I chasing the top 10k or am I defending the top 100k...

Always chase the highest position IMO. Don't often win by playing safe when competing for the top.

[Resonare]

I guess I need to decide if I am chasing or leading. I'm top of every mini league that matters and can't see that changing with the gaps I have in them so not worried about them.

OR is 31k, am I chasing the top 10k or am I defending the top 100k...

Imo, you're chasing Top 10k but you don't need high amounts of variance to achieve it. If the TC was taken out the game tonight you'd benefit from it because you can get Top 10k from where you are with solid picks paying off, while guys way behind you would have one less high variance method of catching you.

I did understand this post but whats EO? haha I've swapped it to and from myself. I'm 40 points ahead in my main cash mini league, 2nd, 3rd, 4th all own Mane and not Salah. I own both but I wildcarded so I am unable to TC. Concerned that they'll TC Mane or even just captain Mane and if I captain Salah I'm not blocking them but cant help but feel Salah will score more even with his poor away record comparted to Mane & Firmino so I want to go with him regardless.

EO means "effective ownership" which just relates to how much that player is owned in a sample in a given GW. If you own and start a player then his EO in your team is 100%, 200% if you captain him and 0% if you bench or don't own him. You generally want players with less EO than in your team to do well and vice-versa, so those of us captaining Salah actually want Mané to blank even is we own him, while those captaining Mané want Salah to do well if they own him as well.

Cash leagues are far more complicated and I don't know what the right model for that is because points become like equity

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Cheers both, I think you are right and I guarantee I would be in chase mode if I hadn't just had such a bad GW but an 11k drop last week has made me look over my shoulder. I've made up ground by just being template up to now and will now start to push a little bit more but won't take too many risks just yet.

xJosh - LiveFPL is really good for tracking EO of your players and telling you which players are a threat to you each week. For example Aguero's ownership in the top10k last week was about 13% but loads of those captained him meaning his EO was about 20%. I didn't have him (hence my awful GW) so his 13 points was 2.6 points against me. (figures are rough from memory).

[blahblah]

66 points from banding Kun the last 2 GW's ...

[eastcentral1]

I'm circa 30k. That should probably point to me captaining Mane on the basis of the discussion above. However, for me Salah is ahead on the eye test, and I can't captain Mane where I think he's not the best option.

[Smurphy Paw]

As I TC Salah I am therefore going to be hoping Mané blanks. The maths makes sense. The reality of not wishing well to over £12m of premium asset feels wrong

[Yarmolarmolenko]

danger with both is rotation now that Liverpool have all but sealed the league, Klopp could start resting to keep them fresh for Europe.

[Resonare]

Annoyingly, Salah's ownership skyrocketed from 30% to 46% in the Top 10k...

So Mane's EO came in at the lower end at 135% because of it. In hindsight, 50% EO for Salah was probably being way too optimistic but at least he's under 100%.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Went for Mane, more for peace of mind than anything else. At least this way I can celebrate all points from my pool assets than worrying about Mane getting anything

[Stu255]

I have Salah TC, honestly I think it’s a cigarette paper between them.

Wondering to choose Salah or Mane is like choosing who will arrive first between two gnats riding on the back of a giant dog called Lucky.