GW 15 Captain

[Stevieste]

He did (11 I think)... and that’s the record isn’t it. I’m desperately hoping, the law of averages (as improbable as they seem) come to fruition.

Pretty much everything is telling me I’m hopelessly wrong... but I am stupidly flogging the same horse I decided to back 5 weeks ago.

Im in same boat, i opted for Rashford over Vardy

[Stevieste]

Actually i give up on Sterling C Every week, he just not doing it at the moment.

Time for Mr Lundstram captain this week and Sterling vice.

Now don't listen to Blah and swap back, like i did last gameweek when had TAA captain until the last minute

[blahblah]

I thought of Lund tbh. Ings and Vardy have avoided blanking for a few weeks, Pullasicky seems a tad risky, Tammy not certain to start, Lpool Defs in a derby kinda leaves me with Foxy Perthing or Lund...

[Zimmerman]

It was on Mane before this evening... but I have a tiny nagging feeling about him starting (completely unfounded and based on nothing more than me thinking I’ve got spidey senses). Klopp does throw in the odd curve ball now and again (Started a game against Chelsea without Firmino and Mane and they were a lot better side than Everton are now).

[Stu255]

Well I think I have a better team than most, but have been let down with my mediocre captain pick.

When I see a poll like this where everyone has gone for Vardy, then I should also go for Vardy and nullify the captaincy as a competitive factor.

Captain typically gets 25% of your points, I think the challenge with it is to not be greedy and just don’t pick someone with volatile returns. It’s more about not cocking it up and beating everyone else with your superior XI.

[Stevieste]

Well I think I have a better team than most, but have been let down with my mediocre captain pick.

When I see a poll like this where everyone has gone for Vardy, then I should also go for Vardy and nullify the captaincy as a competitive factor.

Captain typically gets 25% of your points, I think the challenge with it is to not be greedy and just don’t pick someone with volatile returns. It’s more about not cocking it up and beating everyone else with your superior XI.

What do you do if he not in your team and your to stubborn to bring him in ?

[chris2k_11]

if want to be differential goes for lundstram ?? i think to play safe better stick with vardy for the armband and others option could be jimenez, mane/salah ....

[Salte2]

Has been promised sexual favours from his Mrs if he scores this week - allegedly!

Looking at her, I reckon this week might be the end of his scoring streak.

Class

Totally the opposite, I would say.

[Stu255]

This is interesting...

Whilst everyone captains Vardy, take a look at who has been the highest scoring player each week this season.

highest scoring player.PNG

GW1 - Mid
GW2 - Fwd
GW3 - Mid
GW4 - Fwd
GW5 - Mid

What changed around this point?

GW6 - Mid
GW7 - Def
GW8 - Mid
GW9 - Def
GW10 - Mid
GW11 - Def
GW12 - Def
GW13 - Def
GW14 - Def

Seems like the lack of clean sheets this season is masking how we view defenders! They are no longer the boring "value option" they are increasingly the big haulers.
As the biggest hauls each week are increasingly coming from the back, is the fact that defenders are cheap causing some kind of cognitive blindness?

Are defenders hauls in anyway more predictable than strikers hauls? This isn't necessarily down to the wing backs either as 4 of these defender hauls came from Centrebacks,
Is this the modern "set piece" strategies and tactical work finally coming through the Premier League data?

Is this perhaps also why we are missing so many clean sheets?
Are the big guys getting smarter and learning how to beat the zonal system by finding the physical mismatches in the box?

Hmmmm? Or maybe it's just random low sample noise and overdue a revision to mean?

[Panserjohan]

Not a good round to pick a diff if you are anywhere near the top 200K mark. "Everyone" is going with Vardy, so if he should haul, you'll be seing red arrows. I'll be picking a "defensive" captain in Vardy this GW.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

I've got no data to back this up but I do feel that defenders are often the highest scorers in a single week, a goal and a clean sheet virtually guarantees 3bps which is 15 points I think?

Issue always is you need this double whammy as double defender attacking returns like Van Dijk is pretty rare and predicting the clean sheets is hard enough but predicting the defenders attacking returns is nigh on impossible.

[Zimmerman]

But that’s cherry picking the best out of hundreds.
Arguably VvD this weekend was a sound pick... but more sound than Mane or Salah?

I think it’s more to do with the abject disappointment of once reliable points scorers;

Aguero, Kane, Sterling and Salah have all disappointed.

Vardy the most inform/reliable... and he’s managed a steady 80 points over the 9 weeks highlighted (compared to the 156 of those selected)?

6 points from a defender might be a safer bet from a defender than any given striker to score 1 goal; but the propensity for defenders to register double digits must be a fraction of the midfield/strikers doing it?

[Smurphy Paw]

I concur that there is now real merit in seeing defenders as net contributors to the team. The extra benefits of a Chilwell or TAA justify their price tags. Playing four or even five at the back used to be frowned upon. As compared to the x3 cheap defender approach Bulgarche was years ahead of the curve, before the curve even existed.
Last year I captained Robertson, Mendy and Alonso a few times. It was always a better move before the decision than with the benefit of hindsight! So now I consider a double figure haul from a defender, such as Trent last week, as the bonus itself as the variance is too great for me to place the armband on them regularly

[ZeroRemorse]

Imagine captaining the player who will outscore Vardy this weekend. What a differential.

It's GW's like this I really wish I could have a tiny glimpse into the not too distant future!

(C)Vardy
(VC)Pulisic

[Stu255]

Hmmm,

I know the defenders hauls seem more volatile but with the 4pts for the CS a large element of it, I would expect top 6 defenders v’s bottom 6 clubs to yield a fairly good “predictability” for double digit hauls.

The CS is much more of a ‘team performance’ factor.

Modern tactics increasingly utilises defenders as attackers and increasingly demands strikers use their energy pressing for the ball.

It would be an interesting study to see the correlation between fixture difficulty v’s strikers hauls compared to fixture difficulty v’s defenders hauls.

I would tend to think fixture difficulty is a bigger determinant of defenders hauls than of strikers (because of the CS element besides other things).

But what is new (ish) is that defenders are increasingly getting double digit hauls. Of the 12 double digit hauls last week, 4 were defenders including 2 of the top 3.

But defenders are now often 30-50% of the double digit scores each week. I don’t think this has always been the case.

A quick check (of about 20 defender hauls) and the same opposition keep coming up? It seems that defenders are getting their double digit hauls against...

Palace
Burnley
Watford
Southampton

Which suggests I should consider Pereira (I won’t, I will capt Vardy), but let’s see what happens here.

[Stevieste]

Imagine captaining the player who will outscore Vardy this weekend. What a differential.

It's GW's like this I really wish I could have a tiny glimpse into the not too distant future!

(C)Vardy
(VC)Pulisic

I will help you.

This week its all about Lundstram

[From4corners]

Interesting observation, and discussion. I'm sticking with my attacker though, and it's not Vardy, more chances imo to score well.

Imagine captaining the player who will outscore Vardy this weekend. What a differential.

Auba

[ZeroRemorse]

I commend the brave souls captaining other players than Vardy.

Watford is dead last and managerless with a pile of defensive injuries.

Leicester brimming with confidence and riding a high.

[Stu255]

I commend the brave souls captaining other players than Vardy.

Watford is dead last and managerless with a pile of defensive injuries.

Leicester brimming with confidence and riding a high.

Yes, everyone is on Vardy.

But the bookies have shorter odds on City who are playing at Burnley, and Chelsea who are at home to Villa. City and Chelsea also shorter than Leicester to score over 3.5 goals.
Interestingly the bookies have Vardy at 4/6 to score at any time, which is shorter than every player except... Tammy Abraham!


From the betting markets it looks like Abraham is fit to play, and checking the news it seems he trained with the team on Monday (not on his own).

Might we see some last minute switching?

[ajcairns]

This feels like pre season all over again - everyone bigging up a big back 5/6. That theory didn't last long (much the same as Bulgarche's approach last year) and only a few stuck with it past 10 GWs.

[Zimmerman]

Hmmm,

I know the defenders hauls seem more volatile but with the 4pts for the CS a large element of it, I would expect top 6 defenders v’s bottom 6 clubs to yield a fairly good “predictability” for double digit hauls.

The CS is much more of a ‘team performance’ factor.

Modern tactics increasingly utilises defenders as attackers and increasingly demands strikers use their energy pressing for the ball.

It would be an interesting study to see the correlation between fixture difficulty v’s strikers hauls compared to fixture difficulty v’s defenders hauls.

I would tend to think fixture difficulty is a bigger determinant of defenders hauls than of strikers (because of the CS element besides other things).

But what is new (ish) is that defenders are increasingly getting double digit hauls. Of the 12 double digit hauls last week, 4 were defenders including 2 of the top 3.

But defenders are now often 30-50% of the double digit scores each week. I don’t think this has always been the case.

A quick check (of about 20 defender hauls) and the same opposition keep coming up? It seems that defenders are getting their double digit hauls against...

Palace
Burnley
Watford
Southampton

Which suggests I should consider Pereira (I won’t, I will capt Vardy), but let’s see what happens here.

Are there more defenders scoring double digits, or less offensive players doing it (skewing the distribution)?

[Stu255]

This feels like pre season all over again - everyone bigging up a big back 5/6. That theory didn't last long (much the same as Bulgarche's approach last year) and only a few stuck with it past 10 GWs.

I think it's much more nuanced than that.
This is about using the armband, not picking your team.

There seems to be 3 or 4 clubs who fairly regularly give big hauls to opposition defenders.

[Zimmerman]

I’d be interested to see who.. my suspicion is that we are seeing a relationship that is perhaps circumstantial.

[Tall Paul]

This feels like pre season all over again - everyone bigging up a big back 5/6. That theory didn't last long (much the same as Bulgarche's approach last year) and only a few stuck with it past 10 GWs.

I think it's much more nuanced than that.
This is about using the armband, not picking your team.

There seems to be 3 or 4 clubs who fairly regularly give big hauls to opposition defenders.

I don't think the sample size is big enough to draw any such conclusions.

I note you include Burnley as regularly giving big hauls to defenders, I haven't checked, but can only recall Lundstram and TAA this season - one of those plays in midfield and the other was just an assist and a rare clean sheet with bonus.

Edit: now I have checked and it is just those two. Looks like Man Utd have allowed four, which is second to Watford's five.

[Jos]

Pulisic ...

I hope Vardy limps off after 2 minutes.

[dino1980]

No Vardy, so Mane (c) for me, KDB (vc).

[dino1980]

I commend the brave souls captaining other players than Vardy.

Watford is dead last and managerless with a pile of defensive injuries.

Leicester brimming with confidence and riding a high.

Yes, everyone is on Vardy.

But the bookies have shorter odds on City who are playing at Burnley, and Chelsea who are at home to Villa. City and Chelsea also shorter than Leicester to score over 3.5 goals.
Interestingly the bookies have Vardy at 4/6 to score at any time, which is shorter than every player except... Tammy Abraham!


From the betting markets it looks like Abraham is fit to play, and checking the news it seems he trained with the team on Monday (not on his own).

Might we see some last minute switching?

Hey Stu,

Sadly, Tammy’s price has no correlation to his likelihood to start. It’d be that price whatever the state of his fitness. The betting markets always price players up as if they are fit to start/expected to start so they don’t get stung. For example Rhian Brewster is 2.8 in the Anytime GS market for Liv vs Eve, even though he probably won’t even be in the squad.
Ihanaecho is 2.4 for Leicester anytime etc etc.
.

[Smurphy Paw]

This feels like pre season all over again - everyone bigging up a big back 5/6. That theory didn't last long (much the same as Bulgarche's approach last year) and only a few stuck with it past 10 GWs.

I’m not sure anyone’s saying that. I think it’s just that base price defence is no longer the only way.
cf A few years ago defenders were mainly there to make up the numbers and be a drain on budget.

[Stevieste]

I really really really want to make Lundstram my captain but something telling me that i come off Sterling it will be costly after having him captain for so long and he is a form player who finally scored last week and could kick start a run

I also have a feeling pep my rest him for the derby

[blahblah]

This feels like pre season all over again - everyone bigging up a big back 5/6. That theory didn't last long (much the same as Bulgarche's approach last year) and only a few stuck with it past 10 GWs.

I’m not sure anyone’s saying that. I think it’s just that base price defence is no longer the only way.
cf A few years ago defenders were mainly there to make up the numbers and be a drain on budget.

My 5 atb have bern doing better thsn ok since I went to it.

Preseason I pondered permabanding Lpool one, and may well do so if\when the clean sheets start.