Taking hits

[RickyRosa]

So it’s my first season at FPL (I am a veteran SDT player however) and I’m struggling with the risk/reward ratio of taking hits.....

At the beginning of the season I pledged to myself that I would not under any circumstance take any -4 let alone -8s’

The logic being that the aim of the game is to accumulate as many points as possible and to give them away seemed like a fundamental strategic mistake.

I quickly learnt when not taking a -4 one GW to sub in Tammy that after he went and scored a hat trick i actually made a big mistake that week not taking the hit.

The issue I’m having is now when Planning my subs for this GW I’m actually looking at taking a -8 this week which in theory I do not need to do as I could rely on my bench as I have Lundstram and RIco who could come in to replace the injured Matip and the benched Christensen.

I actually think i have made a mistake by not getting shot of them a few GWs ago but have stubbornly held true to my above strategy and refused to take hits but feel that with Christensen playing CIteh (assuming he even gets on the pitch) and with Matip still potentially injured that I should just go for it and take the -8 and make my transfers....

It got me thinking and I wonder if any seasoned FPL veterans have the same school of thought and if there are any managers out there who actually also subscribe to the not taking hits strategy or whether actually it’s a pretty standard thing to do?

[Oxford NZ]

I am sure Blah will be along shortly to comment, he did a few tactical hits last season a -8 and -12 I think to great effect.
Hits do have their place in the game if used well. I m personalty too knee jerk with my style of play so most of my hits back fire, but I am still not scared to take the odd -8 if the squad is getting out of shape or long term injury problems that can not be covered from the bench.
So far this season I am up to 5 hits ( -20 )

[Sutter Kane]

Yep. Never say never.

[Ironfist]

xH...

[hancockjr]

There’s no strategy about it - or shouldn’t be aside from “more hits probably means more overall rank volatility” - if the hit will pay off on average taking everything into account (eg future points, extra team value etc etc as well as points that week) do it. If not don’t.

Look at the best options with and without hits, for a few weeks after as well as that gameweek,and make the decision.

[ajcairns]

I haven't done so far this season but I am more inclined to take -4 as part of a 3 transfers move after rolling one over.

[Stevieste]

Sometimes you have to take a hit purely to catch a form player rising and being priced out early.

Ive done it a few times, like i never got on Mount and now refuse to as even though he still great value i feel hard done by for not getting his original price.

There is a few that don't have Tammy and wont get it him now as he like £1 million more in price.

I started off the season without taking any hits but ive took quite a few in last 5-6 gameweeks.

[blahblah]

I am sure Blah will be along shortly to comment, he did a few tactical hits last season a -8 and -12 I think to great effect.
Hits do have their place in the game if used well. I m personalty too knee jerk with my style of play so most of my hits back fire, but I am still not scared to take the odd -8 if the squad is getting out of shape or long term injury problems that can not be covered from the bench.
So far this season I am up to 5 hits ( -20 )

There is a long, vaguely funny answer, but the short one is....

The truth is between never (say never) and of course why not?

Remember it is -6 not -4 if you have a bench bod to start - which is why BGW's are good to fire them.

A hit is for more than 1 GW. Don't use them for one fixture, which will take a Xfer or three yo get out of. Use them to restructure your team\squad i.e. to take advantage of fixture runs...

Most of all don't use them to chase last week\month's points!

[wonkypenguin]

Every time I've taken a hit this year (3) I've ended up with a red arrow. I think it's more of a problem with the kneejerk rather than the hit itself though!

[blahblah]

Probably, but I measure hits on at least 3 GW's and soft measures like happiness with squad etc.

Avoiding knee jerk hits is the difficult thing

[Multiple Scorgasms]

I tried to go this season without a hit and have only taken 1 -4 so far. Had to do it to remove a Brighton player when bringing Connolly in.