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The Arsenal Defence

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Finisher1
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

Gambit wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:23 same thing for me, a poor defensive team mostly has poor defensive picks in FPL, Arsenal are not very good at the back and because of this most of the experienced FPL managers are avoiding their defenders, and quite right too, why would anybody want a defender from a team who defend like Arsenal do? :lol:
What are you talking about? No one here has suggested picking Arsenal defenders.

We were talking about how difficult fixture ARS (H) or ARS (A) is. And it's now proven it's an average fixture.

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blahblah
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah »

But you need to compare Holding to other 4.5m Defs etc. Not their Def to Lpool or Citeh ..

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Zimmerman
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

Finisher1 wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:06
Gambit wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 19:25
hancockjr wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 19:14 But if, after 10 games, both xGA and actual GA suggest a team is middle of the pack don't you think "Hmm, maybe they are middle of the pack after all". You can't watch all the games from all the teams, after all.
that's a fair point, I suppose ultimately I prefer the eye test and watching Arsenal I wouldn't go near their defence at the moment, even if their xGA stat isn't one of the worst.
Great point hancockjr. So instead of xGA, let's look at the ACTUAL GOALS conceded by Arsenal.

2019-20: 14 goals conceded - 9th best
2018-19: 51 goals conceded - 9th best
2017-18: 51 goals conceded - 8th best

So hmm... maybe we all should now admit that they are actually an average defence?

Or does someone here still want to stubbornly suggest that Arsenal are worse than average defence because their subjective "eye test" knows better?
Although last season they only kept one clean sheet more than the team with the fewest clean sheets 🤷‍♂️

Finisher1
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

blahblah wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:27 But you need to compare Holding to other 4.5m Defs etc. Not their Def to Lpool or Citeh ..
Correct.

Finisher1
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

Zimmerman wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:32 Although last season they only kept one clean sheet more than the team with the fewest clean sheets 🤷‍♂️
Not true. They kept 12th most clean sheets, and three clean sheets more than the team with the fewest clean sheets.

Average defence.

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Zimmerman
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman »

Apologies.... I ignored (forgot) the relegated teams 🤭

Still, being mid table amongst a load of mediocrity/dross isn’t a ringing endorsement.

Finisher1
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

Zimmerman wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:39 Apologies.... I ignored (forgot) the relegated teams 🤭

Still, being mid table amongst a load of mediocrity/dross isn’t a ringing endorsement.
We were talking about how difficult fixture ARS (H) or ARS (A) is. And it's now proven it's an average fixture.

hancockjr
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by hancockjr »

I used my eye test today. The earth is definitely flat.

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Finisher1 wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:40 We were talking about how difficult fixture ARS (H) or ARS (A) is. And it's now proven it's an average fixture.
Finisher I bowed out of this conversation (and I'm going to regret returning) but I don't think you have satisfactorily proven to me that Arsenal (H) is an average fixture.
- Arsenal only kept one away clean sheet last season, which was the worst in the PL.
- Arsenal conceded 35 goals away last season, which was the joint fourth worst in the PL. That compares to the league average of 30, excluding City, Liverpool and the relegated teams.
(The same rankings apply if you want to include the matches this season too.)

Anyway, re-reading the discussion, I'm glad we have pursuaded you that your initial comment was wrong and that Arsenal are not defensively decent but are only league average. We'll get there in the end :D
Finisher1 wrote: 29 Oct 2019, 22:09 Arsenal are defensively decent. Their xGA is 15.56, which is 11th in the league. I'd rather captain Chelsea, Man United or Tottenham player in that gameweek.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 »

Bobby Fetta wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 21:51 Anyway, re-reading the discussion, I'm glad we have pursuaded you that your initial comment was wrong and that Arsenal are not defensively decent but are only league average. We'll get there in the end :D
Not really. You forgot to bold my next sentence in that quote.

Finisher1 wrote: 29 Oct 2019, 22:09 Arsenal are defensively decent. Their xGA is 15.56, which is 11th in the league. I'd rather captain Chelsea, Man United or Tottenham player in that gameweek.
So I literally said they are average (11th in the league) in the very first post.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 01 Nov 2019, 22:08, edited 5 times in total.

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Stu255
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Stu255 »

Hmmm, this has gotten a bit messy hasn’t it.

For clarity...
1). Everyone agrees that Arsenal defenders are poor FPL picks. Nobody is contesting this. Case closed.

2). There is some discussion as to whether Arsenal are an average difficulty fixture for an attacking FPL player or an easy fixture for an attacking FPL player.

Looking at understat they data suggests that Arsenal give away lots of shots but that these shots are low xG.

xGA/shot from open play is just 0.08 this is quite low, similar to corners and set pieces.

For comparison the teams with truly poor defence give away a similar number of shots as Arsenal but the shots those teams concede are 0.13 - 0.17 xGA/shot in open play.

Arsenal’s defensive style is to give their opponents space to shoot but to make it difficult to penetrate their box. The data suggests Arsenal defend quite deep.

Sheff Utd have slightly better xGA than Arsenal but their defensive style is very different. They give away far fewer shots against in open play at 8/90 to Arsenal’s 10.8/90 but the shots Sheff Utd concede average 0.14xGA (compared to Arsenal’s 0.08).

The data suggests Sheff Utd defend higher and disrupt attacking play to cut out shots rather than Arsenal’s approach of allowing attackers to shoot from low danger positions.


Also Arsenal have conceded 4 penalties in 10 games. :shock:
Last edited by Stu255 on 01 Nov 2019, 22:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah »

hancockjr wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 21:11 I used my eye test today. The earth is definitely flat.
More like an upside down saucer to me.

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta »

Finisher1 wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 22:00 It depends how you define "decent". To me average can be decent, and in the very post that you quoted I literally said "decent as 11th in PL". But I appreciate it if you understand it differently.
Oh yeah, fair point. That comment was more tongue-in-cheek, although I'm not totally convinced about your contraction of two separate sentences to a single definition.

Anyway, moving on from that moribund topic, have you transferred Martial in to your team? I know you championed him as a pick this season. I'm stuck between:
- Hudson-Odoi to Martial (this seems to be the algorithm choice from the different sources I consult)
- Haller to Vardy
- save the FT and money in the bank for future flexibility (e.g. so that I have the option to do KDB to Salah at some point)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by SUZYKINS »

Stu255 wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 22:01 For clarity...
1). Everyone agrees that Arsenal defenders are poor FPL picks. Nobody is contesting this. Case closed.
Not everyone :shock:
Finisher1 wrote: 29 Oct 2019, 22:09 Arsenal are defensively decent.
Finisher1 wrote: 01 Nov 2019, 20:25 What are you talking about? No one here has suggested picking Arsenal defenders.
So Arsenal are defensively decent, doesnt that allude that the advice is their defenders are good picks :?

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Re: The Arsenal Defence

Post by Mav3rick »

Spirited and lengthy discussion about the Arsenal defence split from the STC. Apologies for any lost context.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah »

SUZYKINS wrote: 31 Oct 2019, 12:57 Dont use xGA tables, call me old fashioned but I use my eyes :wink:
Old Fashioned 😊

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by SUZYKINS »

blahblah wrote: 02 Nov 2019, 09:23
SUZYKINS wrote: 31 Oct 2019, 12:57 Dont use xGA tables, call me old fashioned but I use my eyes :wink:
Old Fashioned 😊
Yes please but use a good rye Whiskey :wink:

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blahblah
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah »

SUZYKINS wrote: 02 Nov 2019, 10:00
blahblah wrote: 02 Nov 2019, 09:23
SUZYKINS wrote: 31 Oct 2019, 12:57 Dont use xGA tables, call me old fashioned but I use my eyes :wink:
Old Fashioned 😊
Yes please but use a good rye Whiskey :wink:
Caustic Soda more like 😂

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