Blanks, Doubles and Chip Strategy (19/20)

[Stemania]

Moved into GW24. A Liv double of (wol, whu).

West Ham have a tough (lei, LIV).

[goooner]

So whats the tactics regarding chips this season?

TC GW 24 ?
FH GW 31
WC GW 34
BB GW 37

Or

Prepare for GW 24 3 pool, 1 west ham
FH GW 31
WC GW 33
TC GW 34
BB GW 37

Havent thought a minute about this yet but maybe Salah or Mane should be TC in 24? With a pool that prolly going to play the best possible team in Both matches for GW 24

[Billy Bongo]

Looking like TC 24 as Liverpool's easy FA draw means they will rest the big guns in the FA cup for the league games

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[Stevieste]

Looking like TC 24 as Liverpool's easy FA draw means they will rest the big guns in the FA cup for the league games

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Same for me.

I will use TC or Mane or Salah, still nit decided who to bring in...most likely Salah though.

Wonder if anyone has the balls to TC TAA.

Last year i went Sterling and it was Laporte who got the biggest haul over the 2 games (in my team that is) i think Aguero got a hat trick first game last year and then blanked away to Everton

[S_sutton87]

I'm planning on tc Taa for that gameweek

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[Stevieste]

I'm planning on tc Taa for that gameweek

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Why have you not got Salah and Mane ?

Cant see as your link not updated

[blahblah]

I'm planning on tc Taa for that gameweek

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Why have you not got Salah and Mane ?

Cant see as your link not updated

Because he is sensible

[Stevieste]

I'm planning on tc Taa for that gameweek

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Why have you not got Salah and Mane ?

Cant see as your link not updated

Because he is sensible

Is that what your doing as well ?

2 away games makes clean sheet potentially less though surely

[blahblah]

I'm planning on tc Taa for that gameweek

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Why have you not got Salah and Mane ?

Cant see as your link not updated

Because he is sensible

Is that what your doing as well ?

2 away games makes clean sheet potentially less though surely

Does it?

Does it make a load of goals more likely?

[Stevieste]

I'm planning on tc Taa for that gameweek

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Why have you not got Salah and Mane ?

Cant see as your link not updated

Because he is sensible

Is that what your doing as well ?

2 away games makes clean sheet potentially less though surely

Does it?

Does it make a load of goals more likely?

Nope.
but for such a valuable chip, why gamble on a defender when you can have a premium player to maximise your return ?

[Stevieste]

I get why your doing it blah as you have 3 liverpool defenders and your not one to follow the current anyway.

But if he has a Salah or a mane, which i cant tell as like i said his link not updated, then the odds on either of them outscoring TAA would be greater and hence why you would go for one of them if was to use your TC chip

TAA a great differential though and if you dont own salah or Mane then i can see the appeal of sticking it on him, in hope he has another 24 point return in 1 GW

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

What do we consider a good return for a TC? >12, >15, >18?

Imo TAA has a higher floor/lower ceiling than the mids (not withstanding another freak performance a la Leicester) and is less likely to be rotated but the mids could produce the big returns needed to rocket up the rankings but it also wouldn't be at all surprising for them to pull out a 4-10 pointer

[Finisher1]

Nope.
but for such a valuable chip, why gamble on a defender when you can have a premium player to maximise your return ?

I agree I'd play TC on Salah or Mane rather than TAA in DGW24. But it's really not a valuable chip, I think its value is about 5 points.

[Sutter Kane]

What do we consider a good return for a TC? >12, >15, >18?

I'd take 15.

But it's really not a valuable chip, I think its value is about 5 points.

Did you mean 5? Miserly!

[Finisher1]

Did you mean 5? Miserly!

Well you should compare your TC points to your alternative (second choice) TC option. So if your TC scores 15 points while your alternative TC option would have scored 10 points, then its real value is 15-10=5.

And of course if we want to avoid hindsight then we should speak about expected points. I think the expected points difference between the best and the second best TC option is about 5 points, yes.

In fact, I think Liverpool's DGW24 won't be the best TC option so basically its TC value is negative. But just like many others I'm probably going to play my TC that week, exactly because it's so weak chip that I rather prioritise my other chips in the main DGWs.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Well you should compare your TC points to your alternative (second choice) TC option. So if your TC scores 15 points while your alternative TC option would have scored 10 points, then its real value is 15-10=5.

And of course if we want to avoid hindsight then we should speak about expected points. I think the expected points difference between the best and the second best TC option is about 5 points, yes.

In fact, I think Liverpool's DGW24 won't be the best TC option so basically its TC value is negative. But just like many others I'm probably going to play my TC that week, exactly because it's so weak chip that I rather prioritise my other chips in the main DGWs.

I don't think that is correct the TC value should be measured as 1x the score your captain gets shouldn't it. By the same logic the BB chip will likely be negative value as well because there has probably been a single GW where you left a lot of points on the bench which would have been a better option in hindsight. Happy to hear your logic on it though.

[Finisher1]

Well you should compare your TC points to your alternative (second choice) TC option. So if your TC scores 15 points while your alternative TC option would have scored 10 points, then its real value is 15-10=5.

And of course if we want to avoid hindsight then we should speak about expected points. I think the expected points difference between the best and the second best TC option is about 5 points, yes.

In fact, I think Liverpool's DGW24 won't be the best TC option so basically its TC value is negative. But just like many others I'm probably going to play my TC that week, exactly because it's so weak chip that I rather prioritise my other chips in the main DGWs.

I don't think that is correct the TC value should be measured as 1x the score your captain gets shouldn't it. By the same logic the BB chip will likely be negative value as well because there has probably been a single GW where you left a lot of points on the bench which would have been a better option in hindsight. Happy to hear your logic on it though.

That's why I said we should speak about expected points.

I meant I think Liverpool's DGW24 won't be the best TC option measured by expected points. I'm sorry if I expressed it unclearly.

[Nailer6245]

Been looking at the two routes this morning, and for me (and I imagine many are similar), it boils down to:

Option 1: Robertson, Grealish, Rashford
Option 2: Soyuncu, Salah, DCL

The first option is quite flexible with the Mid-Forward pairing, given the money involved. It could also be Richarlison/Ings, or Alli/DCL, for example. The second option sees the defender rotated, and it's Soyuncu most weeks with Kelly/Rico deputising when needed.

I think on balance I'm leaning towards the Salah option, as I feel relatively well covered in defence and can see Salah posting big scores from 24-29 given that he tends to bully weaker teams. Far from an easy call though.

[blahblah]

Yes the Maths of this are fun...

It is worth twice the difference between second option or others considered and includes the negative. This may also include hits to get players in and\or out.

It is also worth one times the difference of a Capt in a different GW ie Salah bagged 25 (ish) points in a BGW which was the highest return of the season (I think). It was 4th Round of Cup when Tomkins got a load too....

[Finisher1]

It is worth twice the difference between second option or others considered and includes the negative.

Umm... what?

[blahblah]

It is worth twice the difference between second option or others considered and includes the negative.

Umm... what?

In a normal GW it is one times the difference between 2 options (A+2B) - (2A+B) .... 1(B-A) in a TC GW the 2 becomes 3... (A+3B)-(3A+B)... 2B-2A... 2(B-A)

[Finisher1]

It is worth twice the difference between second option or others considered and includes the negative.

Umm... what?

In a normal GW it is one times the difference between 2 options (A+2B) - (2A+B) .... 1(B-A) in a TC GW the 2 becomes 3... (A+3B)-(3A+B)... 2B-2A... 2(B-A)

No, this is not true. You'd have to make the same decision between two players even if you didn't play TC (so if you only played a regular captain).

The value of TC is not the (expected) points difference between players A and B in a particular gameweek. The value of TC is the (expected) points difference between upgrading your regular captain in gameweeks X and Z.

[blahblah]

That is the other comparison that I included.

For someone torn between Mane and Salah it is twice their difference that GW.

[Finisher1]

For someone torn between Mane and Salah it is twice their difference that GW.

No, this is simply not true blahblah. You either play a regular captain or triple captain. TC value is only the upgrade of triple captain compared to a regular captain. So to put it very simply 3-2=1.

[blahblah]

For someone torn between Mane and Salah it is twice their difference that GW.

No, this is simply not true blahblah. You either play a regular captain or triple captain. TC value is only the upgrade of triple captain compared to a regular captain. So to put it very simply 3-2=1.

Nope. That is the difference in other GW's. If the choice is between eg Mane and Salah in GW24 the swing is twice the difference, as above.

I'm not engaging in pages of explaining this to you as you redefine intransigent .......

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

You are both correct, and arguing at cross purposes

The TC chip itself is worth 1 x the score of the player chosen

but

Making the correct decision on which of Salah/Mane to play it on is worth 2x the difference between their scores.

[Finisher1]

For someone torn between Mane and Salah it is twice their difference that GW.

No, this is simply not true blahblah. You either play a regular captain or triple captain. TC value is only the upgrade of triple captain compared to a regular captain. So to put it very simply 3-2=1.

Nope. That is the difference in other GW's. If the choice is between eg Mane and Salah in GW24 the swing is twice the difference, as above.

I'm not engaging in pages of explaining this to you as you redefine intransigent .......

You are talking about value of your decision, which is twice the difference.

But the value of TC is only once the difference.

The TC chip itself is worth 1 x the score of the player chosen

Spot on.

[blahblah]

Yep for a specific GW.

But between Salah in GW24 and another eg 31 is just once the difference in Mo's score in those GW's.

[Finisher1]

Yep for a specific GW.

But between Salah in GW24 and another eg 31 is just once the difference in Mo's score in those GW's.

The value of TC chip itself is once the difference every time.

[TheRumourMill]

I'd probably be looking at 12 points (trebled) as the par score for a TC. Through the season I see 8 points per captain as par, the fact that you're using the chip on theoretically the best captain option available in the entire season means sights should be set a little higher.