FISO

Anyone else wondering if the potential points gap between Salah and Mané is closing? And enough to justify saving £1m to upgrade elsewhere?


Last season
259 Salah
231 Mané

InSane in the membMane?

I'd like to swap Salah for Mane (not Sane).

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I think Salah has now taking ownership for pens... that might increase the gap.

(He only took 3/7 League pens last year).

Although I’m not sure if we’ve had one whilst Milner has been on the pitch.

I like Salah more personally even factoring in the price gap. Depends if you’re a gambler or not. I’m not.

Zimmerman wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 14:06 I think Salah has now taking ownership for pens... that might increase the gap.

(He only took 3/7 League pens last year).

Although I’m not sure if we’ve had one whilst Milner has been on the pitch.

And some corners....

Always was/has

Maybe I didn't notice when I had him....

I freaking did on Friday

To me it is quite simple. You don't have Salah or Mané (other than for a very short period or for a situation-specific reason) without the intention of quite often captaining them. That applies to any 11m+ player. Salah is a better captain than Mané because he is likely to score more points. So you have Salah (or neither). End of story.

Mané is (or should be) for most intents and purposes a dead option for FPL. The price difference is too small to make him worthwhile over Salah and his valuation is too high to have as a non-captaincy option.

Martial and Rashford are also 1m apart but both can justify their valuation without captaincy so you could have both and not be making a fundamental error. The only other pair I can think of like Salah & Mané would be Sterling & Aguero, where you also should only have one of the two if you understand the game right.

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 04:13 Martial and Rashford are also 1m apart but both can justify their valuation without captaincy so you could have both and not be making a fundamental error. The only other pair I can think of like Salah & Mané would be Sterling & Aguero, where you also should only have one of the two if you understand the game right.

What do you think about the 30ppm theory doing the rounds here? Going by that, Martial and Rashford would need to score 225 and 255 points respectively to be viable picks. Essentially kills one of them as an option.

Could you briefly go over the 30ppg theory? I've not seen mention of it before.

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 04:13 To me it is quite simple. You don't have Salah or Mané (other than for a very short period or for a situation-specific reason) without the intention of quite often captaining them. That applies to any 11m+ player. Salah is a better captain than Mané because he is likely to score more points. So you have Salah (or neither). End of story.

Does this mean you rarely have more than one of Salah, Sterling, Mane, Aguero, Kane and Aubamayang in your squad?

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:

Ruth_NZ wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 04:13 To me it is quite simple. You don't have Salah or Mané (other than for a very short period or for a situation-specific reason) without the intention of quite often captaining them. That applies to any 11m+ player. Salah is a better captain than Mané because he is likely to score more points. So you have Salah (or neither). End of story.

Does this mean you rarely have more than one of Salah, Sterling, Mane, Aguero, Kane and Aubamayang in your squad?

No, the issue is when they are from the same team, because you can only captain one of them, and the favourable fixtures are obviously identical.



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There are occasions during a season where it might be beneficial to own two players from the same team who are expensive - such as a nice run of easy fixtures where you'd expect a team to rack up the goals. This isn't really applicable to Liverpool because they have so many great options (when Allison returns to shore up the defence). But for Man C, having 2 big name attackers is not a mistake if you think they'll smash the goals in for fun during a run, the only problem being the cost of fitting them all in...

I think Ruth is probably right though - with Man City's potential rotation situation, I'd probably steer clear of anyone other than one of their attackers. Oh and I agree and I've mentioned it before about Mane - he's just too expensive.

HungryHungrySuarez wrote: ↑16 Aug 2019, 07:41 Could you briefly go over the 30ppg theory? I've not seen mention of it before.

Basically you need to get 30 points from every million spent to finish around 2500 points. Martial, at 7.5, would therefore need to score at 5.92 ppg (therefore get 225 points). Rashford at 6.71 (255 points) and so on..

But that theory is flawed one simple reason, it's 30m per position on the pitch and you rotate players in and out of your team

Only those strange people that forget you've got a transfer per week to use and who get fixated by team value so keep players too long are fixated by this

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Sutter Kane wrote: There are occasions during a season where it might be beneficial to own two players from the same team who are expensive - such as a nice run of easy fixtures where you'd expect a team to rack up the goals. I think Ruth is probably right though - with Man City's potential rotation situation, I'd probably steer clear of anyone other than one of their attackers. Oh and I agree and I've mentioned it before about Mané - he's just too expensive.

Yeah, that's what I meant by "a very short period or situation-specific". For example if Sterling were to get injured and be expected to be 4 weeks out at a time when Liverpool had 4 great fixtures, you might take Mané as well as Salah for that period, thinking that his points ceiling is particularly high at a time where having him could solve a problem in a simple way for you. But conversations at this stage are generally about the season in general rather than very specific situations, no?

Blue Fire wrote:What do you think about the 30ppm theory doing the rounds here? Going by that, Martial and Rashford would need to score 225 and 255 points respectively to be viable picks. Essentially kills one of them as an option.

I think it is over-simplified (and wrong), because it is based on the fallacy that you have 100m to spend. You don't. You have around 33m to spend. You are obliged to have 15 players and even if you take the cheapest possible options (that will actually play and score some appearance points) then you can't avoid an obligatory spend of around 67m. The game insists on that.

FPL is all about what you do with the 33m that you have a choice about (I call it discretionary budget). You have to get more with it (ppm) than you will get from the 67m obligatory spend if you are to get near 2500 points.

As a very rough (but practical) rule of thumb, you could work on the basis of 18 ppm for the first 4.5m of a player's price and you would then need to achieve around 33 ppm above 4.5m in order to achieve a winning score. That could be slightly lower if you killed captaincy and/or nailed the chips but it's in the ballpark.

That means that a 7.5m player (Martial) needs around 180 season points to deliver value whereas Mané at 11.5m would need 312. Martial could well hit that target or get fairly close. Mané, with the best will in the world, won't get near to 312. That is why you have to be very careful with players valued at 10m or above. There is very little chance they can deliver value (other than in the short-term if you can time it right) without being used quite often as a captain. There is a lot more that could be said about it - and value is an important ingredient but not the only ingredient in selecting a player - but that's the basic theory I would use as a guideline myself.

PS. BillyB is also right. You are best dividing the above numbers by 38 and looking at points per game per million. For Martial the target would be 4.74 and for Mané it would be 8.21. That's why SK is right that a player like Mané can deliver value over a short period - he could easily average 8.21 ppg over a 4-game stretch when fixtures are kind and Liverpool are in rampant form. But he is highly unlikely to average that over a season. So the calculation that counts is of the points a player scores while he is actually in your team.

MOBIUS wrote: ↑15 Aug 2019, 13:04 Anyone else wondering if the potential points gap between Salah and Mané is closing? And enough to justify saving £1m to upgrade elsewhere?


Last season
259 Salah
231 Mané

So I have a choice, possibly this week, definitely before the follow week, about Mane or Salah. All the current waves have Mane at the top but imo Salah has the greater potential...

Anybody any views on these two up until the GW18 hiatus? [I know this has been done to death but things change... ]

Salah has this niggling ankle injury that is a concern. He still has penalties in his favour when Milner is not on the pitch. I'm probably sticking with Salah just to save a transfer but Mane does seem the man in form.

Sutter Kane wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 20:22 Anybody any views on these two up until the GW18 hiatus? [I know this has been done to death but things change... ]

Mané for me. I've seen nothing this season or last to suggest that his points potential is any lower than Salah's (bar perhaps the odd penalty). He'll be coming in for Sterling this week, as planned.

Never mind Salah v Mané though, what about Salah v Lundstram? I've just seen that Lundstram now has more points this season than Salah!

Pulpy wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 20:31 I'm probably sticking with Salah just to save a transit but Mane does seem the man in form.

To be fair, Mané has been the man in form for nearly a season and a half now. Maybe it's more than just a run of good form.

I've just noticed something interesting though: Mané already has one assist more than he had in the whole of last season. Does that mean he had fewer assists last season than he should have, or is he over-performing this season when it comes to assists? He only had 3 assists last season, that does seem unusually low for a regular member of that Liverpool front three.

I think a key thing is that Mane seems to still be improving as a player whereas Salah may be on the top of a plateau (admittedly an extremely high one)

I like the strategic framework that is laid out earlier in this thread.

You can play FPL in a discretionary week by week basis, or you can implement a model. I would guess those using a strategic mathematical model would outperform those who do not. I would also guess the gap would be at least one order of magnitude on a logarithmic scale.

So far I have been playing Mané, Sterling and Agüero. However, I am considering playing playing Mané, Salah plus one of Sterling and Agüero from GW13/14 onwards.

I have got Mané since GW3. He was attractive to me as the price difference was too big. I expect Salah and Mané being priced roughly the same in the end and ending up with give and take 20 points on the same level at the end.

Stu255 wrote:I like the strategic framework that is laid out earlier in this thread.

You can play FPL in a discretionary week by week basis, or you can implement a model. I would guess those using a strategic mathematical model would outperform those who do not. I would also guess the gap would be at least one order of magnitude on a logarithmic scale.

Mane or Salah?

I'll be getting both as it stands. It's pretty clear to me that Salah isn't playing at 100% because he's trying to avoid flaring his ankle injury before the City game so I expect a "sudden" increase in form next week. I think the 2 week break should see him fully recover from it as he probably won't go on international duty with Egypt. I also don't think we look secure enough defensively to warrant doubling up on the defence but the fixtures barring Palace away look good from an attacking perspective even for captaincy.

I'd have to sell Sterling to get Mane but looking at the fixtures from an attacking perspective, Mane will most likely outscore him...

MCI (H) vs LIV (A)
CRY (A) vs CHE (H)
BHA (H) vs NEW (A)
EVE (H) vs BUR (A)
BOU (A) vs MUN (H)
WAT (H) vs ARS (A)

I plan to WC18 so it's a fairly easy decision, probably a lot harder if you've used your WC already though.

Resonare wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 21:26 I'll be getting both as it stands. It's pretty clear to me that Salah isn't playing at 100% because he's trying to avoid flaring his ankle injury before the City game so I expect a "sudden" increase in form next week. I think the 2 week break should see him fully recover from it as he probably won't go on international duty with Egypt. I also don't think we look secure enough defensively to warrant doubling up on the defence but the fixtures barring Palace away look good from an attacking perspective even for captaincy.

There's literally no way this could be clear, and it's almost certainly not true. He's just got a bad ankle (and may well be out of form anyway).

SirMattBugsby wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 21:09 Mane or Salah?

Well the price difference is only £0.5m at the moment, but it’s Mané who has scored 20% more FPL pts than Salah.

Salah has the better underlying stats, Mané’s xG and xA are worse than Fermino... but it’s Mané who is way out in front in terms of FPL pts.

I also think Sadio Mane is physically more robust than Salah which is something very rarely considered.

Here’s a theory... xG type models are great and work for 95% of top flight football analysis hypothesis.

But where is this method likely to be weakest?

At the absolute zenith of the game. Where anomalous players accrue, where the transfer fees go non-linear. The best players in Premier League title chasing teams are capable of confounding xG.

The players who exist out on the hockey stick.

Kevin De Bruyne, Jamie Vardy, and now Tammy Abraham are capable of doing things beyond the best models.

Mane and Salah are both capable of that too.

Look at the character shown by City and Liverpool today. It’s that unnatural determination, that drags you further.

I would suggest that football analysis of the Premier League necessitates a two tier model.

hancockjr wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 21:35

Resonare wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 21:26 I'll be getting both as it stands. It's pretty clear to me that Salah isn't playing at 100% because he's trying to avoid flaring his ankle injury before the City game so I expect a "sudden" increase in form next week. I think the 2 week break should see him fully recover from it as he probably won't go on international duty with Egypt. I also don't think we look secure enough defensively to warrant doubling up on the defence but the fixtures barring Palace away look good from an attacking perspective even for captaincy.

There's literally no way this could be clear, and it's almost certainly not true. He's just got a bad ankle (and may well be out of form anyway).

It's pretty clear to me. I've watched every competitive minute Salah has ever played for Liverpool

But please, explain how it's "almost certainly not true"

Resonare wrote: ↑02 Nov 2019, 22:34
It's pretty clear to me. I've watched every competitive minute Salah has ever played for Liverpool

But please, explain how it's "almost certainly not true"

Are you his doctor?

What is Salah intentionally avoiding?

I think there's a dichotomy with xG

I think it could work and give a reasonable approximation for an overall team which you can compare with other teams as differentials for individuals may be averaged out

However I think it it is deeply flawed as a concept for individual players as for it to work as a scientific measurement it has to assume that all players presented with the same chance have an identical chance of scoring, otherwise you are making a subjective judgement which defeats the purpose of the exercise. Football Manager and before it Championship Manager have the measurements finishing, heading, free kicks, penalties etc for a reason. In a one on one does Che Adams have the same chance of scoring as Sadio Mane, i doubt it. In a set piece headed chance does Mason Mount have the same chance of scoring as Virgil van Dijk, I seriously doubt it.

I'm afraid anyone who thinks xG is some sort of gift wrapped solution or panacea for their FPL difficulties is unfortunately deluded. There's a reason Jamie Vardy is a proven 'stat buster' over several seasons, he's a proven better finisher than most of his rivals.

But he's averaged 10%-15% above for the last 4 seasons, and is currently 100% over. You think he's improved his finishing that much at his age over the summer? Or more likely he's just had a great run which won't be sustained?

Indeed not all players will convert the same, but if their "outperformance" suddenly diverges from past experience it's almost certainly a random fluctuation that will return to normal levels than suddenly becoming a massively improved player.

Not sure where you get the idea that anyone thinks xG is "some sort of gift wrapped solution or panacea for their FPL difficulties" - any quotes you can give? Sensible people find it a useful tool to use, in addition to hence alongside other methods, flaws and all, as there is no one perfect tool available.