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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

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If it turns out that FPL price rises are now less predictable, do you think that is good or bad?

Good, I prefer some unpredictablility
33
36%
Bad, price change timing should be predictable
34
37%
Don't really mind
25
27%
 
Total votes: 92

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by HungryHungrySuarez » 14 Aug 2019, 14:56

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:41
HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:36
I think it could be argued that there is a skill to predicting price changes in the same way there is a skill to predicting who to captain in a given GW, or which of those two 4.0 defenders you have on your bench will play / will score points.
So you would want the points change algorithm to be secret as well? You'd only know that "players get points based on their performances" and the prediction sites had told you "goals and assists affect points but we don't know exactly how much". That would definitely require skills as well, hey-ho.
i think that conflates core game mechanics with added-value depth. The goal of playing FPL is to score the maximum amount of points in a given season. Players are awarded basic performance points based on real-world actions which are auditable and immutable. However, there are elements of the BPS calculation that are also less than crystal clear, for example the definition of 'should score' or 'big chance'.

Price changes contribute to the skill/difficulty of achieving a good score - increasing team value may be advantageous in achieving the goal of scoring the most points, but it isn't in itself the goal of the game.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 15:04

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:56
However, there are elements of the BPS calculation that are also less than crystal clear, for example the definition of 'should score' or 'big chance'.
Let's not go there, please. We all know what "should score" and "big chance" mean and they are determined by a third party, just like other subjective decisions like goals, offsides and fouls are determined by a third party, referees.

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:56
Price changes contribute to the skill/difficulty of achieving a good score - increasing team value may be advantageous in achieving the goal of scoring the most points, but it isn't in itself the goal of the game.
Prices are an important component for scoring points. The price change algorithm is just as important as the points change algorithm.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by sorbiegunner » 14 Aug 2019, 15:20

I don't think that the case for stating the algorithms are or contain a random element is very convincing. Not knowing how the algorithm works might make it appear random but that's not the same thing.
There are other factors in the game that are a lot more random. When your opponent in the mini league will play his bench boost or his wild card for example. Not to mention random injuries. Ederson's rise in value was more a result of Alisson's injury than any other factor so even if the algorithm was public the reasons for the algorithm kicking in could still be totally random.
There are other FF games that don't include this price change feature but none of them are as popular as FPL. And it's a feature that has been there for what seems like forever whils't FPL has gone from strength to strength.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 15:22

jacksosi wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:54
I Am Ville wrote:Has anyone called the Police?
ImageImageImage
Four candles or fork handles?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 15:25

sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:20
I don't think that the case for stating the algorithms are or contain a random element is very convincing. Not knowing how the algorithm works might make it appear random but that's not the same thing.
It's random to us just like the points changes would be random to us if we didn't know the points change algorithm. We would just know "players get points based on their performances" and we would have a vague guess that goals and assists affect points some way. Would you like that?

sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:20
There are other factors in the game that are a lot more random. When your opponent in the mini league will play his bench boost or his wild card for example. Not to mention random injuries. Ederson's rise in value was more a result of Alisson's injury than any other factor so even if the algorithm was public the reasons for the algorithm kicking in could still be totally random.
Those are obviously part of the game. The secret price change algorithm and the secret points change algorithm are not part of the game.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by sorbiegunner » 14 Aug 2019, 15:32

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:25
sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:20
I don't think that the case for stating the algorithms are or contain a random element is very convincing. Not knowing how the algorithm works might make it appear random but that's not the same thing.
It's random to us just like the points changes would be random to us if we didn't know the points change algorithm. We would just know "players get points based on their performances" and we would have a vague guess that goals and assists affect points some way. Would you like that?

sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:20
There are other factors in the game that are a lot more random. When your opponent in the mini league will play his bench boost or his wild card for example. Not to mention random injuries. Ederson's rise in value was more a result of Alisson's injury than any other factor so even if the algorithm was public the reasons for the algorithm kicking in could still be totally random.
Those are obviously part of the game. The secret price change algorithm and the secret points change algorithm are not part of the game.
The secret price change algorithm is part of the game and (as I said a moment ago) has been a part of the game since the year dot. There isn't a points change algorithm.In answer to your question, if there was a secret points change algorithm I wouldn't play the game. Nearly 6 Million do play it with the price change system in place.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 15:40

Random: made, done, or happening without method or conscious decision.

Not being aware of the mechanics random

It might give the illusion of being random (but appearing is not the same as being).

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 15:40

sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:32
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:25
sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:20
I don't think that the case for stating the algorithms are or contain a random element is very convincing. Not knowing how the algorithm works might make it appear random but that's not the same thing.
It's random to us just like the points changes would be random to us if we didn't know the points change algorithm. We would just know "players get points based on their performances" and we would have a vague guess that goals and assists affect points some way. Would you like that?

sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:20
There are other factors in the game that are a lot more random. When your opponent in the mini league will play his bench boost or his wild card for example. Not to mention random injuries. Ederson's rise in value was more a result of Alisson's injury than any other factor so even if the algorithm was public the reasons for the algorithm kicking in could still be totally random.
Those are obviously part of the game. The secret price change algorithm and the secret points change algorithm are not part of the game.
The secret price change algorithm is part of the game and (as I said a moment ago) has been a part of the game since the year dot. There isn't a points change algorithm.In answer to your question, if there was a secret points change algorithm I wouldn't play the game. Nearly 6 Million do play it with the price change system in place.
There is a points change algorithm and luckily it's public. For some reason the price change algorithm still remains secret.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Turd Ferguson » 14 Aug 2019, 15:41

It's quite suspicious that so many players rose last night after nobody rose for the first few days. Something to watch. They may have changed the price change mechanism so that it only happens once a week or something like that. Or maybe it was just a lot of people playing wildcards immediately. We'll see.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 15:48

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:40
Random: made, done, or happening without method or conscious decision.

Not being aware of the mechanics I random

It might give the illusion of being random (but appearing is not the same as being).
The price change algorithm is secret which increases randomness for FPL managers.

What if a football match wasn't decided by goals, but instead by a secret algorithm that players and managers are not aware of? Would you say to players and managers that "match officials have a secret method for deciding this match so it doesn't increase randomness, just play and take what comes".

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by HungryHungrySuarez » 14 Aug 2019, 16:33

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:04
Prices are an important component for scoring points. The price change algorithm is just as important as the points change algorithm.
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:48
What if a football match wasn't decided by goals, but instead by a secret algorithm that players and managers are not aware of? Would you say to players and managers that "match officials have a secret method for deciding this match so it doesn't increase randomness, just play and take what comes".
The price change algorithm doesn't decide the outcome of FPL. It's a stretch to attribute the same importance to price change timing as it is to points awarded. The football match example is irrelevant for the same reason - a more apt example might be if red cards or penalties were decided without anyone knowing the reasons behind them.

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RomynPG
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by RomynPG » 14 Aug 2019, 16:37

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math!
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by math! » 14 Aug 2019, 16:39

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:48
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:40
Random: made, done, or happening without method or conscious decision.

Not being aware of the mechanics I random

It might give the illusion of being random (but appearing is not the same as being).
The price change algorithm is secret which increases randomness for FPL managers.

What if a football match wasn't decided by goals, but instead by a secret algorithm that players and managers are not aware of? Would you say to players and managers that "match officials have a secret method for deciding this match so it doesn't increase randomness, just play and take what comes".
I think the word you are looking for is unpredictable not random. Like someone said, having players rise and fall for no reason is random. Having a player's % spike is down to not knowing the workings behind it. It isn't randomly occurring, it's just unknown. I think there is a methodology but we can't see it and it is usually like this at the start of every season.

I can understand why you would call it random. Seeing a player go from 60% to 100%+ sounds random but every year we have seen players at 99%, 100% and assume they will rise/drop but they don't. You can never really trust the numbers. If it is going to be like this then at least we won't be rushed into transferring players because we think they will rise/fall. I've always hated doing that only to see the price stay the same.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by zalk » 14 Aug 2019, 16:45

I voted good because I don't mind a bit of unpredictability. It makes some sense that the price rise occurs when the transfer is made that tip the scale.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 16:45

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:33
a more apt example might be if red cards or penalties were decided without anyone knowing the reasons behind them.
Yes, and no one here wants that, right?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by HungryHungrySuarez » 14 Aug 2019, 16:50

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:45
HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:33
a more apt example might be if red cards or penalties were decided without anyone knowing the reasons behind them.
Yes, and no one here wants that, right?
I agree. But my point was to suggest you are overstating the importance of knowing which day a player's price will go up or down by .1

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 17:07

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:50
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:45
HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:33
a more apt example might be if red cards or penalties were decided without anyone knowing the reasons behind them.
Yes, and no one here wants that, right?
I agree. But my point was to suggest you are overstating the importance of knowing which day a player's price will go up or down by .1
My point is there should be clear rules for price changes. Just like there are clear rules for penalties and red cards.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 14 Aug 2019, 17:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 17:07

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:48
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 15:40
Random: made, done, or happening without method or conscious decision.

Not being aware of the mechanics I random

It might give the illusion of being random (but appearing is not the same as being).
The price change algorithm is secret which increases randomness for FPL managers.

What if a football match wasn't decided by goals, but instead by a secret algorithm that players and managers are not aware of? Would you say to players and managers that "match officials have a secret method for deciding this match so it doesn't increase randomness, just play and take what comes".
I would say it was unpredictable rather than random.

(Try not to derail the thread ;) )

EDIT: appears Math! Beat me to it
math! wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 16:39

I think the word you are looking for is unpredictable not random.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 17:08

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:07
I would say it was unpredictable rather than random.

(Try not to derail the thread ;) )
Yes, and my point is it shouldn't be unpredictable. Do you agree with me?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 17:13

No, I don’t mind it’s not predictable.

The Sun game has price rises that are not known. We can guess and we know when they occur. But they are what they are.

A large part of the Sun game is based on a rating (think bonus points but for everyone in the team attaining 7/10 rating). It’s a bit of a mystery how the ratings are arrived at. We can guess, we can predict... but we don’t know for sure. It is what it is. It doesn’t diminish my enjoyment (or willingness to play).

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 17:16

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:13
No, I don’t mind it’s not predictable.
Well you are entitled to your opinion. In my opinion the price change algorithm should be public. Just like the points change algorithm is public. Just like we know how a football match is decided and how many points teams get if they win, draw or lose. Just like we know the rules for penalties and red cards.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 17:26

But we don't know why MU paid 50m for W-B, and why they then moaned when Leicester demanded more for an established International.

The Prediction Websites aren't worth looking at until GW6 (ish) and then start to become reliable. This has been known for years.....

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 17:30

blahblah wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:26
But we don't know why MU paid 50m for W-B, and why they then moaned when Leicester demanded more for an established International.

The Prediction Websites aren't worth looking at until GW6 (ish) and then start to become reliable. This has been known for years.....
No one here has said anything else.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 17:35

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:16
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:13
No, I don’t mind it’s not predictable.
Well you are entitled to your opinion. In my opinion the price change algorithm should be public. Just like the points change algorithm is public. Just like we know how a football match is decided and how many points teams get if they win, draw or lose. Just like we know the rules for penalties and red cards.
We don’t know how much injury time is awarded (or why so much/little was added on to be more precise).
We don’t known why the referee makes certain decisions.

We have an idea based on the rules and guidelines... but we don’t know exactly why.

Some things are just out of our control.

I’ve still got faith in people cracking the code and we’ll be out of our misery.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 17:37

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:35
We don’t know how much injury time is awarded (or why so much/little was added on to be more precise).
We don’t known why the referee makes certain decisions.

We have an idea based on the rules and guidelines... but we don’t know exactly why.
We all have the same information about those rules: managers, players, referees and fans, we all have the same information. For price changes, only FPL Towers know the rules, only FPL Towers have the information.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by sorbiegunner » 14 Aug 2019, 17:41

We don't know why Man City got a fine and Chelsea got a transfer ban for the same thing. It's a seemingly random decision. It's probably not random at all though.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 17:44

sorbiegunner wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:41
We don't know why Man City got a fine and Chelsea got a transfer ban for the same thing. It's a seemingly random decision. It's probably not random at all though.
Bizarre example. Chelsea and Man City know the laws and regulations.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stevieste » 14 Aug 2019, 17:45

Its not random, but when this thread reaches page 5, it will be odd.....yep im bored now 🤣

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 17:55

Stevieste wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 17:45
Its not random, but when this thread reaches page 5, it will be odd.....yep im bored now 🤣
Odd, even, odd even.....

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by FranckKessie » 14 Aug 2019, 18:16

Incredible how many posts this thread has accumulated in one day :shock:

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