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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

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If it turns out that FPL price rises are now less predictable, do you think that is good or bad?

Good, I prefer some unpredictablility
33
36%
Bad, price change timing should be predictable
34
37%
Don't really mind
25
27%
 
Total votes: 92

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 12:55

Stu255 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:50
Is this thread a joke? Or some kind of clever satire?

Price changes ARE predictable. They are based on transfers in and transfers out. There are some other parameters but net transfers is about 85% of the probability weighting.
So would it be fine to you if the POINTS change algorithm was also secret? If the rules just said "points will change based on players' performances"?

Would you then say "points ARE predictable. They are based on goals and assists. There are some other parameters but goals and assists are about 85% of the points"?

Stu255 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:50
You can predict price movements with far far greater probability than goals.
So would you be happy if you had to predict how many points you might get for a goal? If the rules just said "points will change based on players' performances", so you could figure out you probably get some points but you didn't know for sure how many points exactly.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 14 Aug 2019, 13:03, edited 6 times in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by SirMattBugsby » 14 Aug 2019, 12:57

I'm one of the people who voted "Don't really mind." But if I were bothered to pay attention, I'd say yes, price changes should be predictable. The randomness doesn't help those who play this game seriously.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stu255 » 14 Aug 2019, 13:04

The reason the price change algorithm is secret is to prevent cheating.

FPL players cannot control Premier League football matches or goals. So they cannot conspire to cheat the points algorithm.

FPL players CAN control FPL price rises because those price rises are based on FPL player behaviour.

If you got say 5,000 FPL players (for example who were all on an Internet forum together), it would be extremely easy for them to conspire to align their transfers in such a way as to rapidly accumulate team value (by trading bench players)... IF they had sight of the price change algorithm.
Last edited by Stu255 on 14 Aug 2019, 13:05, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by SirMattBugsby » 14 Aug 2019, 13:05

Finisher1 wrote:
zipnolan wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:48
This part of the discussion is simply not true. Amongst price risers only Martial was a little below expectation. All of the others (de Gea, Sterling, Rashford, Emerson) were expected to rise quite early. The droppers were equally predictable: Alisson, Ozil, Sane, Matip. Anyone could have seen this coming, without a prediction tool - whether it happened on Tuesday , Wednesday or Thursday wasn't especially problematic to me, and it certainly wasn't "random".
Price change sites had Martial at about 60%, so many managers reasonably decided to wait for today's Super Cup before making any moves. You may argue it was a poor judgment and people shouldn't completely trust price change sites, but that's really really off the point. The point is we shouldn't be forced to make guesses about price change timing in the first place, because the price change algorithm should be public just like the POINTS change algorithm is public.

zipnolan wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:48
I certainly wouldn't blame FPL for that - if you have a beef it is surely more with the sites like fplstatistics, who are diligently trying to understand the underlying logic so us lazy beggars can get that info at the click of a button. So I don't think it's fair to blame them either.
No, of course my beef is completely with FPL. They have decided to have a secret price change algorithm, which is totally irrational. Price change sites shouldn't be needed in the first place.
Agree with you Finisher, but it is what it is. Maybe the price sites will figure it out, in which case, you'll know when to transfer.

If they don't, you'll be on the same page as someone knee-jerking a player in or making a transfer on Saturday morning. So you'll have to learn to be 'casual' about it Image

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Lucky » 14 Aug 2019, 13:05

First of all, I have also been caught out by the price rise. It messes up my plan to get in Martial. :evil:

However, I think the price element is a very positive one in FPL as long as there is no manipulation. It gives a more realistic touch to the game.

So far my understanding is that price moves are on the basis of supply and demand. Do not forget that it is a global game with almost 6m players. So when we go to bed and assume that Martial will not rise there is still the possibility that activity by players in other time zones move the price. In the past the price change seemed to happen at 1.30 am roundabout. Today it rather seemed to be this morning. So the only random factor could be at what time the price changes take place.

I accept that it is a nuisance when your plans go out of the window, but just get back to the drawing board and find a new solution …. like in real life. :wink:

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 13:06

Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:45
In fact it just looks like Origi is the other one who perhaps should have risen too. Seems a massive amount of NTIs to force a rise or is that just me? I thought around 40k net would do it.
Of course, wildcard transfers are believed not to count towards price changes (but they are included in the NTI numbers) so being top of NTI numbers doesn't tell the whole story. In fact, my understanding is that essentially this factor alone is responsible for price change sites not being incredibly accurate all of the time.

I.e., even if the price change mechanism was made completely transparent by FPL, this would not necessarily mean price change sites would be significantly more accurate unless FPL also published wildcard transfer ratios for every player (or removed wildcard transfers from NTIs).

I can certainly believe that Martial has had an particularly high ratio of actual non-wildcard transfers in (vs other players like Origi), seeing the number of people on fantasy sites that were wanting him (and are in general less inclined to WC week 2 than the masses).

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul » 14 Aug 2019, 13:08

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:33
Tall Paul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:29
I expected Martial to rise sometime this week. That's why I brought him in on Sunday night.
So you guessed it right. Good for you. What's your opinion on the poll? Do you think guessing a price change timing is a necessary part of FPL, even though it has nothing to do with watching matches, analyzing stats and using football knowledge?
It wasn't a guess though. As I said, I expected him to rise sometime this week.

My answer to the poll question is that I don't really mind.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by SirMattBugsby » 14 Aug 2019, 13:10

Stu255 wrote:The reason the price change algorithm is secret is to prevent cheating.

FPL players cannot control Premier League football matches or goals. So they cannot conspire to cheat the points algorithm.

FPL players CAN control FPL price rises because those price rises are based on FPL player behaviour.

If you got say 5,000 FPL players (for example who were all on an Internet forum together), it would be extremely easy for them to conspire to align their transfers in such a way as to rapidly accumulate team value (by trading bench players)... IF they had sight of the price change algorithm.
You mean, like, creating artificial demand, as in stock market?

I'm not sure why we'd call accumulating TV 'cheating' otherwise. Not sure it works in terms of points either, since additional transfers cost -4.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by SirMattBugsby » 14 Aug 2019, 13:14

Tall Paul wrote:
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:33
Tall Paul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:29
I expected Martial to rise sometime this week. That's why I brought him in on Sunday night.
So you guessed it right. Good for you. What's your opinion on the poll? Do you think guessing a price change timing is a necessary part of FPL, even though it has nothing to do with watching matches, analyzing stats and using football knowledge?
It wasn't a guess though. As I said, I expected him to rise sometime this week.

My answer to the poll question is that I don't really mind.
Same as me, and I fully endorse your approach in the current scenario. If I feel something will happen, I pull the trigger now. If not sure, I wait till Saturday morning.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by zipnolan » 14 Aug 2019, 13:17

I would agree that FPL could be more transparent about price rises / falls - looking a the rules there is a lot more detail about how bonus points are calculated than how rises / falls are assessed. On the other hand, bonus points can never be anticipated so that an adjustment can be made in advance, so the comparison is flawed.

Most of what we think we know about price changes has been deduced by people who have more time to spend on this stuff than I could ever comprehend. It has always been this way, though, so I don't know why the complaint is coming now - it does appear that Martial is the only slight anomaly so far.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 13:18

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:06
I.e., even if the price change mechanism was made completely transparent by FPL, this would not necessarily mean price change sites would be significantly more accurate unless FPL also published wildcard transfer ratios for every player (or removed wildcard transfers from NTIs).
And that's exactly what they should do, isn't it? Heck, then we could calculate price changes by ourselves with just a pen and paper. Or the FPL site itself could easily calculate them, just like they calculate POINTS as well. Why is this so eff hard for the mighty FPL Towers?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Owsler » 14 Aug 2019, 13:22

The harder they make it to predict, the easier I'll find it to detach from the whole agony of it all. That's my view.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 13:25

Personally I quite like the current system (in the knowledge that we do have the sites making educated guesses on our behalf).

It's part of the charm of the game for me - and conversely, I'd say it makes it better for 'skilled players' because you've got to employ more risk management, estimates of population behaviour etc. Deciding whether to take a transfer early and take a risk on injury, or to accept the risk of missing price changes in order to wait for information, is one of the more demanding dimensions of the game. :)

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 13:28

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:25
Personally I quite like the current system (in the knowledge that we do have the sites making educated guesses on our behalf).

It's part of the charm of the game for me - and conversely, I'd say it makes it better for 'skilled players' because you've got to employ more risk management, estimates of population behaviour etc. Deciding whether to take a transfer early and take a risk on injury, or to accept the risk of missing price changes in order to wait for information, is one of the more demanding dimensions of the game. :)
That's a valid opinion and I'm very sure both of us are on the winning side of it in a long run, because we are very analytical and put the effort on it. But even though I'm on the winning side, I still strongly oppose it. So you could say I'm very altruistic with my rally this time!

The thing is, Stemania, all of those factors you present would still exist even if the price change algorithm was public. You do realise that? Like I have said many times in this thread: I have nothing against price changes. I just want the price change algorithm to be public for everyone.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 13:43

If the system was public to the extent that FPL would publish precise NTI numbers and exact targets, then they would almost certainly just telegraph when all the changes were going to happen to the masses too (and have a rise percentage on every player). Then the game would be completely different. There'd be very little risk management to do because you'd essentially have zero risk until the night they were about to hit the threshold. It would also push the population of global transfers until much later in every gameweek and significantly advantage anyone who happens to be awake around the price change times every night (assuming FPL would not know themselves for certain until the price change time). It would also supercharge the bandwaggon behaviour of prices because the masses could see exactly who was going to rise/fall. It would also pressurise FPL into having a set time for price changes every day and a set regularity with which they update the NTI numbers (which is logistically unsustainable based on their previous actions).

Not for me. :)

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 13:48

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:43
If the system was public to the extent that FPL would publish precide NTI numbers and exact targets, then they would almost certainly just telegraph when all the changes were going to happen to the masses too (and have a rise percentage on every player). Then the game would be completely different. There'd be very little risk management to do because you'd essentially have zero risk until the night they were about to hit the threshold. It would also push the population of global transfers until much later in every gameweek and significantly advantage anyone who happens to be awake around the price change times every night (assuming FPL would not know themselves for certain until the price change time). It would supercharge the bandwaggon behaviour of prices because the masses could see exactly who was going to rise/fall. It would also pressurise FPL into having a set time for price changes every day and a set regularity with which they update the NTI umbers (which is logistically unsustainable based on their previous actions).

Not for me. :)
The game already favours those who are awake when the gameweek deadline happens, it's not different really. In fact, if the price changes happened at night (like they now happen) then it would favour exactly those people who are in an unfavourable position with gameweek deadline. So it would be just a fair (yet small) equaliser. Why are you against it? Do you want to have all advantages by yourself? :lol: ;)

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 13:53

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:48
The game already favours those who are awake when the gameweek deadline happens, it's not different really.
The difference is huge imo. Now there is uncertainly over when the changes will happen, plus the margin for error of price change sites is so large that being awake around the deadline is of fairly little consequence.

As soon as you have a completely public system with a fixed change time (which you'd have to do if your system was public, else there'd be thousands of complaints every week) then the advantage of being awake at the price change time would be much much larger. As soon as there is certainly in the numbers, you would see rushes of transfers 1 hour before the deadline (significant numbers most likely) and being awake to see that happen would give you far more info on whether a player would rise/drop than other players have.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 13:56

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:53
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:48
The game already favours those who are awake when the gameweek deadline happens, it's not different really.
The difference is huge imo. Now there is uncertainly over when the changes will happen, plus the margin for error of price change sites is so large that being awake around the deadline is of fairly little consequence.

As soon as you have a completely public system with a fixed change time (which you'd have to do if your system was public, else there'd be thousands of complaints every week) then the advantage of being awake at the price change time would be much much larger. As soon as there is certainly in the numbers, you would see rushes of transfers 1 hour before the deadline (significant numbers most likely) and being awake to see that happen would give you far more info on whether a player would rise/drop than other players have.
You missed that I was speaking about the GAMEWEEK deadline, right? The game already favours those who are awake when the gameweek deadline happens. So those people who are disadvantaged with the gameweek deadline would just have a fair (yet small) equaliser with the price change deadline. Wouldn't that be only fair?
Last edited by Finisher1 on 14 Aug 2019, 14:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 13:57

As for vs the gameweek deadline, I would favour moving it further from kickoffs in order to give nobody a chance of seeing the teams early.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 13:59

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 13:53
As soon as you have a completely public system with a fixed change time (which you'd have to do if your system was public, else there'd be thousands of complaints every week) then the advantage of being awake at the price change time would be much much larger. As soon as there is certainly in the numbers, you would see rushes of transfers 1 hour before the deadline (significant numbers most likely) and being awake to see that happen would give you far more info on whether a player would rise/drop than other players have.
Well then another option is that a price change deadline is 24 hours (or 12 hours, whatever) before the price changes in question are actually implemented. So similar to your suggestion about moving the gameweek deadline further from kickoff. How about that?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 14:02

As soon as you formally announce that changes will happen you have the issues I tried to describe in the previous post. No risk management, completely changed (and lopsided) market dynamic, more extreme mass-drive price behaviour, impossible logistics for FPL etc.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 14:06

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:02
As soon as you formally announce that changes will happen you have the issues I tried to describe in the previous post.
I think you described only the situation when the price changes happen immediately when the price change deadline happens. But my suggestion was different. I suggested that the price changes are actually implemented 12 hours after the price change deadline, so no one would have any advantage for being awake when the price change deadline happens.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 14:09

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:02
No risk management, completely changed (and lopsided) market dynamic, more extreme mass-drive price behaviour, impossible logistics for FPL etc.
Fair enough, so all of this would be solved if FPL site itself didn't publish the price change tracker, but the price change algorithm could still be public. I think that would be the most fair solution.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 14:14

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:06
Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:02
As soon as you formally announce that changes will happen you have the issues I tried to describe in the previous post.
I think you described only the situation when the price changes happen immediately when the price change deadline happens. But my suggestion was different. I suggested that the price changes are actually implemented 12 hours after the price change deadline, so no one would have any advantage for being awake when the price change deadline happens.

All that moving the price change deadline from the time of changes does is move the time of the pile-up. The advantage comes from being present in the lead up to the moment the transfers are about to reach the known threshold, not when the changes will actually be implemented. Unless you're suggesting the NTIs/thresholds etc are hidden, but FPL just announce who will soon more in price?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stevieste » 14 Aug 2019, 14:17

Now im stuck with Fraser and cant bring in Martial, im hoping for a Fraser brace and Martial injury 😁

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 14:18

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:14
All that moving the price change deadline from the time of changes does is move the time of the pile-up. The advantage comes from being present in the lead up to the moment the transfers are about to reach the known threshold, not when the changes will actually be implemented. Unless you're suggesting the NTIs/thresholds etc are hidden, but FPL just announce who will soon more in price?
Yeah it moves the time of the pile-up, so what? There would be no advantage from being awake at certain time for anyone.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by HungryHungrySuarez » 14 Aug 2019, 14:36

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:50
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:48
although Raheem has already texted me the dates he will score for the season, so that's helpful.
What's your point?

Guessing when players are likely to score = the ultimate purpose in FPL
Guessing when price changes might happen = should not be a part of this game by any means
I think it could be argued that there is a skill to predicting price changes in the same way there is a skill to predicting who to captain in a given GW, or which of those two 4.0 defenders you have on your bench will play / will score points.

NTI isn't a hidden stat; nor is ownership. We don't know the algorithm, but FPL towers do make it known that these stats factor into price changes. Whilst not accurately calculable, its possible to be correct within a gameweek with some degree of accuracy above 'random'. Price changes add an extra dynamic to the game, and i think it's a good thing that adds more depth. It's a skill to synthesise the data and form a decision based on this - it wouldn't be a skill to be spoon-fed the price change times for each player. Therefore, publishing such data would reduce the skill required to play FPL and bring us all that bit closer together in terms of team, transfer decision making and ultimately points. That would seem a bit less exciting to me.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 14:41

HungryHungrySuarez wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 14:36
I think it could be argued that there is a skill to predicting price changes in the same way there is a skill to predicting who to captain in a given GW, or which of those two 4.0 defenders you have on your bench will play / will score points.
So you would want the points change algorithm to be secret as well? You'd only know that "players get points based on their performances" and the prediction sites had told you "goals and assists affect points but we don't know exactly how much". That would definitely require skills as well, hey-ho.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by I Am Ville » 14 Aug 2019, 14:52

Has anyone called the Police?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by jacksosi » 14 Aug 2019, 14:54

I Am Ville wrote:Has anyone called the Police?
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