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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

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If it turns out that FPL price rises are now less predictable, do you think that is good or bad?

Good, I prefer some unpredictablility
31
36%
Bad, price change timing should be predictable
33
38%
Don't really mind
23
26%
 
Total votes: 87

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Sutter Kane
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Aug 2019, 10:59

I think it's a wait and see with the price changes. It'll probably settle down and be more predictable again. Else we have to adapt and find the transfer policy least harmful to our chances. (if it's totally unpredictable that is)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 11:02

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:50
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:48
although Raheem has already texted me the dates he will score for the season, so that's helpful.
What's your point?

Guessing when players are likely to score = the ultimate purpose in FPL
Guessing when price changes might happen = should not be a part of this game by any means
my point is twofold:

- would a detective find it unfair when an unknown criminal changed their modus operandi to avoid getting caught, or would they relish the fresh challenge? I am the latter.

- I would guess that the order of events was thus: FPL said price changes would occur based on weight of transfers, players realised this could be predicted, websites appeared that seemed to have worked out almost perfectly when these price changes would happen, players used this info to their advantage. Did anyone at any point play this game because they knew (or thought they knew) exactly when the price changes would happen? I just do not see the issue as a core feature of the game. Price changes yes. Knowing their exact timing, no.

All of which is a difference in opinion between the two of us of course, and a variety of opinion leads to a more interesting existence.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:07

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:02
All of which is a difference in opinion between the two of us of course, and a variety of opinion leads to a more interesting existence.
I think most of us here think that guessing when price changes might happen should not be a part of this game.

We watch matches. We analyze stats. We use our football knowledge. And then we guess when a price change might happen. It doesn't add up.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 11:12

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:50
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:48
although Raheem has already texted me the dates he will score for the season, so that's helpful.
What's your point?

Guessing when players are likely to score = the ultimate purpose in FPL
Guessing when price changes might happen = should not be a part of this game by any means
Is guessing (or knowing) when price rises occur part of the game?

We don’t know how the initial prices are arrived at. Should we?

Knowing (or predicting) when then they (might) occur is just a slight edge the hardcore can take over the unsuspecting masses. I dare say 95% of players are oblivious to these rise predicting sites.

Your average punter wants to make a transfer, can they afford player A or not? Hey ho, I’ll have to pick player B.

As long as there isn’t manual intervention and it isn’t random... then I’ve no issue with it. Adds another dimension to the game and trying to pre-empt moves to the minutest detail could be derailed by some knee jerk transfers adds to the fun.

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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 11:15

I am interested to understand the balance of feeling on this matter :)

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:17

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:12
We don’t know how the initial prices are arrived at. Should we?
Please don't derail the discussion with that kind of comment.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 11:18

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:17
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:12
We don’t know how the initial prices are arrived at. Should we?
Please don't derail the discussion with that kind of comment.
pretty sure some of my comments have done more derailing than Zimm's (quite reasonable, imho) comment!

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 11:19

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:07
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:02
All of which is a difference in opinion between the two of us of course, and a variety of opinion leads to a more interesting existence.
I think most of us here think that guessing when price changes might happen should not be a part of this game.

We watch matches. We analyze stats. We use our football knowledge. And then we guess when a price change might happen. It doesn't add up.
It’s just another judgement call.
Do I bring Martial in tonight because I really want him... or do I wait till Friday because my Liverpool players might get injured on Wednesday. Not sure why this is so offensive to you.

Not to mention - the price site gurus are still tweaking their tools and you may well be back in to an all knowing position before the international break arrives.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:24

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:19
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:07
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:02
All of which is a difference in opinion between the two of us of course, and a variety of opinion leads to a more interesting existence.
I think most of us here think that guessing when price changes might happen should not be a part of this game.

We watch matches. We analyze stats. We use our football knowledge. And then we guess when a price change might happen. It doesn't add up.
It’s just another judgement call.
Do I bring Martial in tonight because I really want him... or do I wait till Friday because my Liverpool players might get injured on Wednesday. Not sure why this is so offensive to you.

Not to mention - the price site gurus are still tweaking their tools and you may well be back in to an all knowing position before the international break arrives.
This judgment call would still exist if the price change algorithm was public.

Price changes = a reasonable (yet not necessary) part of fantasy football
Guessing when price changes might happen = should not be a part of fantasy football

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 11:29

Why not?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:35

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:29
Why not?
Because it's a lottery. It's not based on watching matches, analyzing stats or using football knowledge.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 11:37

Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:56
Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:39
The prediction sites are usually the least accurate around heavy wc periods.
My partner is the least accurate to predict during these times too.
😂😂😂😂😂

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 11:42

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:35
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:29
Why not?
Because it's a lottery. It's not based on watching matches, analyzing stats or using football knowledge.
You know there will be rises and drops.
You know that a player doing well will result in an uplift.

That’s much as you can reasonably expect to know.

Heck.... three weeks ago people were talking about selecting such and such because a price rise would mean they were priced out of him as a planned move in GW3. Or not picking Greenwood because if the masses ditch him, he’ll drop in price impacting your TV. So we know this stuff. Just like we know/expect Sterling to score... we just don’t know exactly when he will score.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:49

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:42
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:35
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:29
Why not?
Because it's a lottery. It's not based on watching matches, analyzing stats or using football knowledge.
You know there will be rises and drops.
You know that a player doing well will result in an uplift.

That’s much as you can reasonably expect to know.

Heck.... three weeks ago people were talking about selecting such and such because a price rise would mean they were priced out of him as a planned move in GW3. Or not picking Greenwood because if the masses ditch him, he’ll drop in price impacting your TV. So we know this stuff. Just like we know/expect Sterling to score... we just don’t know exactly when he will score.
You are once again derailing the discussion. "Not picking Greenwood because he might drop quickly" is a judgment call that would still exist even if the price change algorithm was public. I have no problem with that. I have no problem with price changes. Could you please, please stop derailing the discussion?

The problem is that literally no one expected Martial to rise last night, it was a totally random event. These kind of random events happen every now and then because a price change algorithm is secret.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 11:52

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:42
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:35
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:29
Why not?
Because it's a lottery. It's not based on watching matches, analyzing stats or using football knowledge.
You know there will be rises and drops.
You know that a player doing well will result in an uplift.

That’s much as you can reasonably expect to know.

Heck.... three weeks ago people were talking about selecting such and such because a price rise would mean they were priced out of him as a planned move in GW3. Or not picking Greenwood because if the masses ditch him, he’ll drop in price impacting your TV. So we know this stuff. Just like we know/expect Sterling to score... we just don’t know exactly when he will score.
Stop typing sense 😉

The prices seem to be consistent with a mix of historical stuff and how the Club (as opposed to the player) will do in the new season. Occasionally they muck up a player who was injured ie Kane and KdB this season, as I think they look at total points as opposed to PpG.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by ricardo68 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:53

More players this year so perhaps thats playing havoc with the system. Will be interesting to see if anyone doubles up this week. And whether FPL bosses have just upped the multiplier so we can all have TVs of 115m by season's end:)

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 11:55

blahblah wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:52
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:42
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:35
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:29
Why not?
Because it's a lottery. It's not based on watching matches, analyzing stats or using football knowledge.
You know there will be rises and drops.
You know that a player doing well will result in an uplift.

That’s much as you can reasonably expect to know.

Heck.... three weeks ago people were talking about selecting such and such because a price rise would mean they were priced out of him as a planned move in GW3. Or not picking Greenwood because if the masses ditch him, he’ll drop in price impacting your TV. So we know this stuff. Just like we know/expect Sterling to score... we just don’t know exactly when he will score.
Stop typing sense 😉

The prices seem to be consistent with a mix of historical stuff and how the Club (as opposed to the player) will do in the new season. Occasionally they muck up a player who was injured ie Kane and KdB this season, as I think they look at total points as opposed to PpG.
We are discussing about price changes, blahblah. You totally missed it.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by math! » 14 Aug 2019, 12:09

blahblah wrote:
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:31
of course the freaking lucky bstrd bit was picking Martial for GW1 :wink:
Corrected :wink:

But they won't play Chelsea every week Image
If they did, Chelsea would be the one scoring a few goals in a good number of the games.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 12:10

blah is simply commenting on Zimm's point. He has not missed your point, he has just not yet chosen to address it.

Regarding the discussion diverging into unpredictability of other things in the game which could also be set as a rule and made public (such as how initial prices are set), I think that is related closely enough to your starting post to be part of the discussion?

I still believe that since there is no rule saying price changes will be set by a fixed algorithm that is never going to change, FPL are perfectly within their rights to change it (if that is indeed what has happened). If however they have said there is an algorithm, and it turns out this has been manually overridden (seems unlikely to me) then I would tend to agree with you.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 12:12

early days, but my poll results suggest the opinion is balanced on this matter. And the discussion on here seems to back that up.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 12:14

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:10
Regarding the discussion diverging into unpredictability of other things in the game which could also be set as a rule and made public (such as how initial prices are set), I think that is related closely enough to your starting post to be part of the discussion?
Initial prices are totally irrelevant in this discussion because they are totally predictable. We all know totally accurately what the initial prices are when the game is launched. They are clearly stated in the FPL site.

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:42
You know there will be rises and drops.
You know that a player doing well will result in an uplift.

That’s much as you can reasonably expect to know.
So would it be fine to you if the POINTS change algorithm was also secret? If the rules just said "points will change based on players' performances"? Would you then say "you know players get points for good performances, that's much as you can reasonably expect to know"?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul » 14 Aug 2019, 12:29

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:49
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:42
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:35
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 11:29
Why not?
Because it's a lottery. It's not based on watching matches, analyzing stats or using football knowledge.
You know there will be rises and drops.
You know that a player doing well will result in an uplift.

That’s much as you can reasonably expect to know.

Heck.... three weeks ago people were talking about selecting such and such because a price rise would mean they were priced out of him as a planned move in GW3. Or not picking Greenwood because if the masses ditch him, he’ll drop in price impacting your TV. So we know this stuff. Just like we know/expect Sterling to score... we just don’t know exactly when he will score.
You are once again derailing the discussion. "Not picking Greenwood because he might drop quickly" is a judgment call that would still exist even if the price change algorithm was public. I have no problem with that. I have no problem with price changes. Could you please, please stop derailing the discussion?

The problem is that literally no one expected Martial to rise last night, it was a totally random event. These kind of random events happen every now and then because a price change algorithm is secret.
I expected Martial to rise sometime this week. That's why I brought him in on Sunday night.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 12:33

Tall Paul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:29
I expected Martial to rise sometime this week. That's why I brought him in on Sunday night.
So you guessed it right. Good for you. What's your opinion on the poll? Do you think guessing a price change timing is a necessary part of FPL, even though it has nothing to do with watching matches, analyzing stats and using football knowledge?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Aug 2019, 12:40

Correct me if I'm wrong but net transfers must cause price changes right? I assume there are more players out there with a higher (or similar) NTI than Martial that haven't risen yet? So there must be ownership involved in any algorithm or they've manually dove in and changed his price at an odd time...
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:33
Do you think guessing a price change timing is a necessary part of FPL
No but it is nonetheless. So my answer to your question is no. (to be clear!) I suppose to turn that question around, does one think that a predictable price change timing is a necessary part of FPL?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 12:42

Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:40
I suppose to turn that question around, does one think that a predictable price change timing is a necessary part of FPL?
Yes, it should be. The price change algorithm should be public, just like the POINTS change algorithm is public.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Aug 2019, 12:45

In fact it just looks like Origi is the other one who perhaps should have risen too. Seems a massive amount of NTIs to force a rise or is that just me? I thought around 40k net would do it.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Aug 2019, 12:46

If it does turn out to be random (and sooner than predicted it seems) then I'm all on board for making transfers early at this point of the season. Price drops are of course more key but still...

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by zipnolan » 14 Aug 2019, 12:48

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:19
Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:14
Weren't the players that rose/fell basically the ones at the top of the price change site lists?
Some of them were nowhere near to rise in those lists created by some very intelligent mathematicians based on their algorithm calculation. So, the fact that those players still rose, is simply due to randomness.

Why is the price change algorithm secret? What is the reason for it?
This part of the discussion is simply not true. Amongst price risers only Martial was a little below expectation. All of the others (de Gea, Sterling, Rashford, Emerson) were expected to rise quite early. The droppers were equally predictable: Alisson, Ozil, Sane, Matip. Anyone could have seen this coming, without a prediction tool - whether it happened on Tuesday , Wednesday or Thursday wasn't especially problematic to me, and it certainly wasn't "random".

I say this as someone who was vaguely intending to go to Moura to Martial, but who missed the boat. I certainly wouldn't blame FPL for that - if you have a beef it is surely more with the sites like fplstatistics, who are diligently trying to understand the underlying logic so us lazy beggars can get that info at the click of a button. So I don't think it's fair to blame them either.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stu255 » 14 Aug 2019, 12:50

Is this thread a joke? Or some kind of clever satire?

Price changes ARE predictable. They are based on transfers in and transfers out. There are some other parameters but net transfers is about 85% of the probability weighting.

You can predict price movements with far far greater probability than goals.

Each week FPL set a new threshold (it’s diminishing as engagement drops over a season) for net transfers and if the clock ticks midnight (or 2:00am) and that threshold is exceeded then a player will move up or down in price and their net transfer count resets.

They can only move £0.3m per week.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 12:53

zipnolan wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:48
This part of the discussion is simply not true. Amongst price risers only Martial was a little below expectation. All of the others (de Gea, Sterling, Rashford, Emerson) were expected to rise quite early. The droppers were equally predictable: Alisson, Ozil, Sane, Matip. Anyone could have seen this coming, without a prediction tool - whether it happened on Tuesday , Wednesday or Thursday wasn't especially problematic to me, and it certainly wasn't "random".
Price change sites had Martial at about 60%, so many managers reasonably decided to wait for today's Super Cup before making any moves. You may argue it was a poor judgment and people shouldn't completely trust price change sites, but that's really really off the point. The point is we shouldn't be forced to make guesses about price change timing in the first place, because the price change algorithm should be public just like the POINTS change algorithm is public.

zipnolan wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 12:48
I certainly wouldn't blame FPL for that - if you have a beef it is surely more with the sites like fplstatistics, who are diligently trying to understand the underlying logic so us lazy beggars can get that info at the click of a button. So I don't think it's fair to blame them either.
No, of course my beef is completely with FPL. They have decided to have a secret price change algorithm, which is totally irrational. Price change sites shouldn't be needed in the first place.

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