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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

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If it turns out that FPL price rises are now less predictable, do you think that is good or bad?

Good, I prefer some unpredictablility
33
36%
Bad, price change timing should be predictable
34
37%
Don't really mind
25
27%
 
Total votes: 92

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wonkypenguin
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by wonkypenguin »

wonkypenguin wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:43
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:36 Buyer wants to pay as small price as possible and a seller wants to receive as big price as possible
Not always!

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

wonkypenguin wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:43
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:36 Buyer wants to pay as small price as possible and a seller wants to receive as big price as possible and they settle a price
Not always!
Yes, supply and demand is a complicated process with many nuances, but it also has nothing to do with FPL.

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jonhoggy
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by jonhoggy »

The unpredictability, uncertainty and the fact no price change sites ever get it spot on I'm fine with, as we are all in the same boat and there are already enough strategies for hardcore players. I do often use a prediction site as a guide, particularly when 0.1m is the difference between being able to transfer someone or not, and tend to stick to Fffix and then have a chunter if they are wrong, all part of the fun. That said, if FPL were to offer true % price rise indications, don't they apply at like 1am in the morning ? I actually think it would do my nut in if it was accurate as i'd be forever checking in the early hours.

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wonkypenguin
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by wonkypenguin »

As someone in the "don't care" camp, I struggle to see why people are getting so worked up on either side :shock:

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:29 Transfers involve supply of a player, or demand for a player.
There simply isn't a supply of a player. The supply of players is unlimited. There is an unlimited amount of salahs and an unlimited amount of sterlings (but only one of each for each manager, haha).

Supply and demand means that a supplier gives salah away and a demander gets his salah. In FPL there is no such process.

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Tall Paul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:55
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:29 Transfers involve supply of a player, or demand for a player.
There simply isn't a supply of a player. The supply of players is unlimited.
These two sentences directly contradict one another.

*ducks for cover*

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:04
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:55
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:29 Transfers involve supply of a player, or demand for a player.
There simply isn't a supply of a player. The supply of players is unlimited.
These two sentences directly contradict one another.
Yeah I should have said "there simply isn't a supply of a player as a factor". It's a non-factor, because the supply is unlimited. FPL prices are not determined by supply and demand.

You are a smart guy Tall Paul so you understand this.

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Tall Paul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul »

The supply of players isn't a factor, but the demand for them certainly is.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:12 The supply of players isn't a factor, but the demand for them certainly is.
Exactly. That's why prices are not determined by supply and demand. I knew you would understand this :)

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Tall Paul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:15
Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:12 The supply of players isn't a factor, but the demand for them certainly is.
Exactly. That's why prices are not determined by supply and demand. I knew you would understand this :)
It's not incorrect to say that they are determined by supply and demand though. In this case the supply happens to be constant and unlimited.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by thebillfella »


Finisher1 wrote: Well, you clearly haven't read posts in this thread, but I don't blame you because it's already five pages long. Hint: I have said one million times (no, actually one billion times) that I have absolutely nothing against price changes. I love all the tactical elements price changes bring to this game.
You clearly haven't read my reply properly either (!), but I don't blame you as you've been busy writing 90% of the posts in these pages Image. I'm summary, my question back to you is "why shouldn't the price change timing algorithm be secret" when we know everything else?
Finisher1 wrote: The problem is that a price change algorithm is secret. It's like having a secret points change algorithm, would you be fine with that? So you wouldn't know how exactly points are calculated, you'd just think they are somehow linked to how players perform on the pitch?
Much like your response to Raoul's posts on share price change, this is a flawed comparison and IMO even more irrelevant Image. You yourself have already stated that you don't mind / understand how the price change is calculated - your issue is when.

Part of the problem (if timing is indeed the only problem) is the impatience of some players to do their transfers straight away (which has a direct correlated impact upon price change timing rather than being totally random as you started this thread suggesting - you may have changed your view on this since then but if so have missed in my skim).

If we all agreed not to transfer until Friday (or you weren't allowed to) then we'd know all price changes wouldn't happen until then. But where's the fun in that?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:18
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:15
Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:12 The supply of players isn't a factor, but the demand for them certainly is.
Exactly. That's why prices are not determined by supply and demand. I knew you would understand this :)
It's not incorrect to say that they are determined by supply and demand though. In this case the supply happens to be constant and unlimited.
It is incorrect. Here you can read what supply and demand means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

thebillfella wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:19
I have already answered to all this, please read posts in this thread.

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:36
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:29 Transfers involve supply of a player, or demand for a player. If you really think I am factually wrong, you should sue whoever supplied you with a dictionary because you have been horribly missold. Maybe those PPI people can assist in a claim.
No, you are factually wrong. Supply and demand means there is a buyer and seller who negotiate a price. Buyer wants to pay as small price as possible and a seller wants to receive as big price as possible and they settle a price. In FPL there is no such process. There is only one part, an FPL manager, who individually decides what he does. Supply of players is infinite.

Supply and demand would be the case in FPL only if there was a limited amount of salahs and limited amount of sterlings, and we should trade them with other managers and negotiate the price with other managers.
No, perfect competition is where buyers and sellers jointly and freely negotiate a price.

Other market forms exist, and supply and demand principles apply to those as well.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah »

Perfect Competition also needs perfect knowledge including of the product, competitors etc.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:31 Other market forms exist, and supply and demand principles apply to those as well.
Supply and demand principles don't apply to FPL market though. You compared FPL to stock market but now you changed the subject and started to talk about other markets. Anyway, I'm glad you realised your comparison to stock market was flawed and we can now forget it and move on :)

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Tall Paul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:20
Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:18
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:15
Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:12 The supply of players isn't a factor, but the demand for them certainly is.
Exactly. That's why prices are not determined by supply and demand. I knew you would understand this :)
It's not incorrect to say that they are determined by supply and demand though. In this case the supply happens to be constant and unlimited.
It is incorrect. Here you can read what supply and demand means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
I know what supply and demand means, I studied it for a professional exam (although it was some years ago now!). I suppose you're right in that, according to the model, if there is unlimited supply of something it's price should be zero, in theory.

Thinking about it a bit more, the supply is kind of limited by the restriction on the transfers, squad structure and budget available. At some point the price of a player will rise to a level that managers stop buying them.

While it doesn't exactly conform to the supply and demand model, it shares a lot of its characteristics.

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:35
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:31 Other market forms exist, and supply and demand principles apply to those as well.
Supply and demand principles don't apply to FPL market though. You compared FPL to stock market but now you changed the subject and started to talk about other markets. Anyway, I'm glad you realised your comparison to stock market was flawed and we can now forget it and move on :)
Yes they do. No I didn't. And no I didn't.

Apart from that, well done.

As for forgetting about it and moving on, that is the one thing you have said where I doubt you will get a host of people pointing out the weaknesses of your posts. :roll:

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:44 I know what supply and demand means, I studied it for a professional exam (although it was some years ago now!). I suppose you're right in that, according to the model, if there is unlimited supply of something it's price should be zero, in theory.

Thinking about it a bit more, the supply is kind of limited by the restriction on the transfers, squad structure and budget available. At some point the price of a player will rise to a level that managers stop buying them.

While it doesn't exactly conform to the supply and demand model, it shares a lot of its characteristics.
The supply of a player is unlimited and it's a non-factor in price determination.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:48 Yes they do. No I didn't. And no I didn't.

Apart from that, well done.

As for forgetting about it and moving on, that is the one thing you have said where I doubt you will get a host of people pointing out the weaknesses of your posts. :roll:
The supply of a player is unlimited and it's a non-factor in price determination.

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Tall Paul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:48
Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:44 I know what supply and demand means, I studied it for a professional exam (although it was some years ago now!). I suppose you're right in that, according to the model, if there is unlimited supply of something it's price should be zero, in theory.

Thinking about it a bit more, the supply is kind of limited by the restriction on the transfers, squad structure and budget available. At some point the price of a player will rise to a level that managers stop buying them.

While it doesn't exactly conform to the supply and demand model, it shares a lot of its characteristics.
The supply of a player is unlimited and it's a non-factor in price determination.
Thinking a little more, the supply isn't actually unlimited. As you said, each manager can only have one of each player, so the supply is limited to the number of managers.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:56 Thinking a little more, the supply isn't actually unlimited. As you said, each manager can only have one of each player, so the supply is limited to the number of managers.
And it has nothing to do with price determination. The supply of a player is a non-factor in price determination.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:58
Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:56 Thinking a little more, the supply isn't actually unlimited. As you said, each manager can only have one of each player, so the supply is limited to the number of managers.
And it has nothing to do with price determination. The supply of a player is a non-factor in price determination.
the issue here is the word supply, and a habit of questioning what a word literally means rather than the underlying principle under discussion.

If I sell a player I am, by definition, supplying him. The fact I am not supplying the player back into a limited pool of that player does not change the fact I am supplying him. I agree that this is unrelated to demand, as in this market the ability to demand and the ability to supply are unrelated. Anyone willing to pay the price can buy Salah, irrespective of whether others have sold him.

However, the algorithm is assuming a market and if enough people sell (i.e. supply) a player, the price falls.

Same principle, but artificially being mimicked by the algorithm. Selling = supply = pushes price down.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:05 the issue here is the word supply, and a habit of questioning what a word literally means rather than the underlying principle under discussion.

If I sell a player I am, by definition, supplying him. The fact I am not supplying the player back into a limited pool of that player does not change the fact I am supplying him. I agree that this is unrelated to demand, as in this market the ability to demand and the ability to supply are unrelated. Anyone willing to pay the price can buy Salah, irrespective of whether others have sold him.

However, the algorithm is assuming a market and if enough people sell (i.e. supply) a player, the price falls.

Same principle, but artificially being mimicked by the algorithm. Selling = supply = pushes price down.
So now we agree prices are not determined by supply and demand.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by thebillfella »

Of course prices are determined by demand?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by thebillfella »


Finisher1 wrote:
thebillfella wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 13:19
I have already answered to all this, please read posts in this thread.
Really? Care to summarise for the benefit of those that can't b bothered getting trapped on the mobius strip?

Last edited by thebillfella on 15 Aug 2019, 14:21, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

thebillfella wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:19 Of course prices are determined by demand?
Not by supply and demand. I just linked the concept a few posts back, please look at the posts in this thread.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

thebillfella wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:21 Really? Care to summarise?
Read the posts in this thread.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by HungryHungrySuarez »

ajcairns wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 12:38 so did we actually get to the bottom of whether Martial's price was manually doctored or not?
i dont see a reason why they would tbh. One player, one goal, one week. Hardly threatens the integrity of the league either way.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by thebillfella »

Finisher1 wrote:
thebillfella wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:21 Really? Care to summarise?
Read the posts in this thread.
I have.

I'm none the wiser!

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