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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

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If it turns out that FPL price rises are now less predictable, do you think that is good or bad?

Good, I prefer some unpredictablility
33
36%
Bad, price change timing should be predictable
34
37%
Don't really mind
25
27%
 
Total votes: 92

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blahblah
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah »

thebillfella wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:19 Of course prices are determined by demand?
Yep. The more that buy the higher the price and the more that sell the lower it goes.

I can't wait for the International Break.... 😂

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:07
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:05 the issue here is the word supply, and a habit of questioning what a word literally means rather than the underlying principle under discussion.

If I sell a player I am, by definition, supplying him. The fact I am not supplying the player back into a limited pool of that player does not change the fact I am supplying him. I agree that this is unrelated to demand, as in this market the ability to demand and the ability to supply are unrelated. Anyone willing to pay the price can buy Salah, irrespective of whether others have sold him.

However, the algorithm is assuming a market and if enough people sell (i.e. supply) a player, the price falls.

Same principle, but artificially being mimicked by the algorithm. Selling = supply = pushes price down.
So now we agree prices are not determined by supply and demand.
for someone who repeatedly tells everyone to read their posts... :lol:

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Payet
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Payet »

Maybe I'm just wrong, but I think most of the people do not understand that this game is a marathon, not a sprint.
Few catches of the price rises will not make significant impact on your total score at the end of the season. It's only my opinion, I assume there is a huge possibility it's not everyone else's.

That's why I, in fact, like this randomness in price changing. This makes my FPL journey more peaceful and in some way it forces my opponents to make some stupid mistakes which are ''suicidal'' in the long term. :D

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:36
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:07
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:05 the issue here is the word supply, and a habit of questioning what a word literally means rather than the underlying principle under discussion.

If I sell a player I am, by definition, supplying him. The fact I am not supplying the player back into a limited pool of that player does not change the fact I am supplying him. I agree that this is unrelated to demand, as in this market the ability to demand and the ability to supply are unrelated. Anyone willing to pay the price can buy Salah, irrespective of whether others have sold him.

However, the algorithm is assuming a market and if enough people sell (i.e. supply) a player, the price falls.

Same principle, but artificially being mimicked by the algorithm. Selling = supply = pushes price down.
So now we agree prices are not determined by supply and demand.
for someone who repeatedly tells everyone to read their posts... :lol:
FPL prices are not determined by supply and demand. FPL prices are determined by the secret price change algorithm which is based on transfer volumes.

I really can't figure out how I could say it more precisely than that.

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Your first and second sentence contradict each other. And very precisely!

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:49 Your first and second sentence contradict each other. And very precisely!
No, they don't. The secret price change algorithm which is based on transfer volumes has nothing to with the concept of supply and demand. Here is a brief introduction to the concept of supply and demand, please read it so you know what you are talking about:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

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Tall Paul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Tall Paul »

Image

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Pirlo's Beard
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Tall Paul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 15:09 Image
This is me last week when I realised I had Taylor and Wood instead of Pieters and Barnes. :lol:

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by thebillfella »

Tall Paul wrote:Image
I think TP has provided the thread summary I asked for! Image

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:54
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:49 Your first and second sentence contradict each other. And very precisely!
No, they don't. The secret price change algorithm which is based on transfer volumes has nothing to with the concept of supply and demand. Here is a brief introduction to the concept of supply and demand, please read it so you know what you are talking about:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
if I can find an experienced Economics lecturer to agree with my analysis, would you believe them over your interpretation of Wikipedia?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 15:55
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:54
raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 14:49 Your first and second sentence contradict each other. And very precisely!
No, they don't. The secret price change algorithm which is based on transfer volumes has nothing to with the concept of supply and demand. Here is a brief introduction to the concept of supply and demand, please read it so you know what you are talking about:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
if I can find an experienced Economics lecturer to agree with my analysis, would you believe them over your interpretation of Wikipedia?
Just drop it, please. Move on man.

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Pirlo's Beard
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:10 Just drop it, please. Move on man.
Oh the irony. :lol:

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jacksosi
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by jacksosi »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:10 Just drop it, please. Move on man.
Oh the irony. :lol:
ImageImageImage

Agent Overson
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Agent Overson »

Can someone point me in the direction of the grown ups forum?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Pirlo's Beard wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:11
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:10 Just drop it, please. Move on man.
Oh the irony. :lol:
Like I replied to your previous PB-trademark-cheap-sarcastic-oneliner: if I sometimes argue with facts and say something that is factually wrong, I will drop it. I asked you to point me when I have done such things but you failed to do it.

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:26
Pirlo's Beard wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:11
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:10 Just drop it, please. Move on man.
Oh the irony. :lol:
Like I replied to your previous PB-trademark-cheap-sarcastic-oneliner: if I sometimes argue with facts and say something that is factually wrong, I will drop it. I asked you to point me when I have done such things but you failed to do it.
The unfortunate issue here is you are saying things about economics which are either plain wrong, or only part of the whole truth.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

raoul wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:56
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:26
Pirlo's Beard wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:11
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 16:10 Just drop it, please. Move on man.
Oh the irony. :lol:
Like I replied to your previous PB-trademark-cheap-sarcastic-oneliner: if I sometimes argue with facts and say something that is factually wrong, I will drop it. I asked you to point me when I have done such things but you failed to do it.
The unfortunate issue here is you are saying things about economics which are either plain wrong, or only part of the whole truth.
I'm saying FPL prices are not determined by the concept of supply and demand. So let's move on now, both of us. I'm fed up with this.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 17:06 I'm fed up with all of this.
Maybe you shouldn't have started it then?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 »

Pirlo's Beard wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 17:07
Finisher1 wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 17:06 I'm fed up with all of this.
Maybe you shouldn't have started it then?
Started what exactly?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by germainelefoe »

Sorry if this pertinent piece of info has been provided in the thread, I couldn't see it.

What time (UK) did the price changes that have occurred so far this season happen?

It used to always be roughly 1am-2am.

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sorbiegunner
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by sorbiegunner »

germainelefoe wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 17:27 Sorry if this pertinent piece of info has been provided in the thread, I couldn't see it.

What time (UK) did the price changes that have occurred so far this season happen?

It used to always be roughly 1am-2am.
Nobody knows what time they do happen, have happened or will happen. It's a secret. Stumbling inadvertently on this secret might well be injurious to your well being. There is no knowing how far the keepers of this secret will go to keep it a secret. It is thought that more people know the recipe for HP sauce than know the workings of the top secret FPL price change algorithm.
One person did at one time claim to have discovered the secret but a Panorama investigation later found that this same person also believed the Earth to be flat and not only did he believe that man had never been to the moon but that the moon itself does not exist. No one pays much attention to him these days.
I note that you have stated a rough time frame. Hopefully the keepers of the secret won't read to much into this, but just make sure your affairs are all in order never the less. Do yourself a favour and get skating towards thicker ice.

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

sorbiegunner wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 18:24
germainelefoe wrote: 15 Aug 2019, 17:27 Sorry if this pertinent piece of info has been provided in the thread, I couldn't see it.

What time (UK) did the price changes that have occurred so far this season happen?

It used to always be roughly 1am-2am.
Nobody knows what time they do happen, have happened or will happen. It's a secret. Stumbling inadvertently on this secret might well be injurious to your well being. There is no knowing how far the keepers of this secret will go to keep it a secret. It is thought that more people know the recipe for HP sauce than know the workings of the top secret FPL price change algorithm.
One person did at one time claim to have discovered the secret but a Panorama investigation later found that this same person also believed the Earth to be flat and not only did he believe that man had never been to the moon but that the moon itself does not exist. No one pays much attention to him these days.
I note that you have stated a rough time frame. Hopefully the keepers of the secret won't read to much into this, but just make sure your affairs are all in order never the less. Do yourself a favour and get skating towards thicker ice.
I think I might know who the above person might be :wink:

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Mav3rick »


This thread is being temporarily locked to allow the contributors a short cooling off period, it will be unlocked some time in the next 12 hours.

I would like to take the opportunity to remind all posters that FISO is an open and welcoming environment and that differences of opinion are welcomed and celebrated rather than shouted down or dismissed. For those unfamiliar with the forum rules and particularly the forum etiquette, may I point out one or two that should be kept in mind by everyone when the discussion in this thread is re-opened:


1. FISO members come from all walks of life and all parts of the world. We are as diverse in our make up as we are alike in our passion for sport & fantasy sports. Because we all bring a unique perspective to the forum, our collective experience is broadened, and we gain new insights. Our diversity demands that we respect each other.

2. We encourage a healthy exchange of opinions. If you disagree with another member, challenge the opinion or idea - not the person. Personal attacks, insults and "flaming" will not be tolerated and will be removed, and the violator will be subject to disciplinary action. You may challenge others' points of view and opinions, but do so respectfully and thoughtfully.

3. The number one rule of FISO is don’t be intentionally annoying; Be polite, be mature, keep your language clean and respect the opinions of others (even if you disagree)

4. Do not use the reporting feature just because you dislike a member or their argument. The report function is only there for when a post breaks these rules or is in any other way offensive, indecent or improper.


Any posters violating any of these rules or of the general FISO Forum Rules may be subject to disciplinary action from the mod team.

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Bobby Fetta
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Bobby Fetta »

This thread seemed to generate a lot of comments very quickly, some of them duplicated several times, but I still enjoyed catching up on it. :D

I agree with Finisher that the current system is unsatisfactory. Personally I think the official FPL site should have the progress bars displays (like on FFFix or FPLstats) to update on whether price rises or falls are imminent. This would seem a good idea from their point of view too, in terms of generating website traffic. However, I doubt they have the technical expertise to implement this properly. Taking it a step further, I would like the price changes to occur at the end of the GW when the game updates but that’s probably because I like to delay my transfers.

Having said that, I think F1 is asking for something impossible when saying they should publish the algorithm because:
1) They seem to constantly tweak the rules, perhaps arbitrarily, to modify the outcomes (hence why the predictor websites have to keep updating). So what would they publish – would they keep updating the description of the algorithm – would we saddos keep looking at that page to see the changes in the thresholds?
2) The changes themselves seem to be implemented manually. Hence the irregular update times, the occasion last season when suddenly no price changes happened for several days (because the operator was off sick??), the lack of changes at the start of this year followed by several changes on the same day (because the operators were busy fixing all the other bugs in the website??).

The main reason this won’t happen is that if they published the rules, they would be inundated with twitter generated complaints when they failed to implement the rules properly. By not publishing them, it is impossible to prove that sometimes they get things wrong.

When they made the change a couple of years ago in the website which seemed to break the CTC predictor, was there any consensus if the removal of the data that could be scraped from the FPL website was an accidental change or deliberate to derail price predictor sites? On reflection I’d guess accidental but it felt like sabotage at the time.

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raoul
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul »

Whilst the debate descended into something unnecessary, it demonstrated some useful things.

The main thing being there is no perfect fantasy game model in terms of what us consumers demand.

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Mo Bot
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Mo Bot »

In the vernacular of a Love Island contestant, it is what it is. None of the price prediction sites have ever been that accurate.
I haven’t read through all of the pages of this topic simply because I’m in the ‘don’t care’ camp but I don’t believe FPL have a committee meeting at 1am to decide who rises and falls. There must be a formula but why would they publish that? They don’t publish the process behind giving a player his initial price for example.

Another reason for the unpredictability may be the 600k new teams that have joined since the GW1 deadline. They may have made transfers since joining which may or may not be counted.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah »

They are not counted, I believe.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Ruth_NZ »

All else aside, I have to admit that I tend to agree with F1s central issue (I think). I have always felt that there is too much manual interference in price changes, which makes it a semi-subjective system. Though my complaint about that is different to most; I object to the way that high-owned players are allowed to rise freely but prevented from falling as freely. It's like how the government always supports house prices in the UK, whether or not it is sound policy.

As soon as the system becomes subjective there will always be a feeling that the playing field isn't level. F1 says "random"; I would say "skewed".

The price change system is one of the worst aspects of the FPL game and one of the reasons I'm not playing this year. I just can't be spending my week monitoring transfers in and out and trying to be ahead of changes. It's too time-consuming, especially when you can't even rely on it that consistent terms of reference are being applied and it's one thing that I am very happy not to have in my head. :)

hancockjr
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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by hancockjr »

Can’t be reading 7 pages but to me it is clear. Either:

A) FPL should have a “% towards next rise” stat in the player drop downs or

B) There should be an element of unpredictability so no-one is too disadvantaged by not knowing about price change sites. No-one should have to know about them.

I favour the first, a lot, but can perfectly accept the second if that is what it is.

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