Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

[SirMattBugsby]

Its not random, but when this thread reaches page 5, it will be odd.....yep im bored now

Odd, even, odd even.....

I've asked you this before BB, but who's the hot chick in your DP? Remember you wanting a threesome with her and Angelina Jolie

[ajcairns]

This thread is a real mix of the arch pedants and the whataboutery--ers. FISO at best and worst.

Did we decided that someone had manually changed Martial’s price or it’s part of the algorithm? It feels like that one was a bit out of the normal expected range compared to the other overnight changes. Or whenever they happened.

[blahblah]

Its not random, but when this thread reaches page 5, it will be odd.....yep im bored now

Odd, even, odd even.....

I've asked you this before BB, but who's the hot chick in your DP? Remember you wanting a threesome with her and Angelina Jolie

I'm not dragging Opportunity Cost or my views on XG etc into this

Ruta Gedmintas

[Stu255]

If everyone is playing FPL under the same rules, why does it matter?

The price algorithm CONSTANTLY CHANGES. It changes from one week to the next. It might even be that they change the algorithm every day.

We know this because it requires much more NTI in the early GW’s than the later ones.

Perhaps the reason it is secret is so that FPL don’t have to listen to hundreds of complaints from people whining about how the algorithm keeps changing in “random” (see unpredictable) ways?

[hancockjr]

Love the confidence that “I can’t predict this based on one week” implies “it’s totally random”.

[thebillfella]

although Raheem has already texted me the dates he will score for the season, so that's helpful.

What's your point?

Guessing when players are likely to score = the ultimate purpose in FPL
Guessing when price changes might happen = should not be a part of this game by any means

Why shouldn't it be? That's part of this game (and always has been) and IMO one of the added bonuses of the game - there is an extra strategic element in terms of team value, when to transfer and how many to make (or not) each week that a game like TFF doesn't have.

And the price change isn't a complete random guess - it is based on a secret algorithm which is in itself directly linked to how players perform / score on the pitch along with certain circumstances off it.

We all knew after confirmation that Martial was OOP and played well / got a goal that he was likely to go up this week just as we know anyone who gets a hatrick will) and we also know that price change times are a little more erratic at the start of the season (so sensible to make your decision earlier in the week if possible). Why is any of this such a no no in your eyes?

This all adds to the dynamic of the game. If you are not keen on it then maybe TFF would be a better option for you (where you can wait until 1 minute before kick-off to make your changes)?

[Finisher1]

We all knew after confirmation that Martial was OOP and played well / got a goal that he was likely to go up this week just as we know anyone who gets a hatrick will) and we also know that price change times are a little more erratic at the start of the season (so sensible to make your decision earlier in the week if possible). Why is any of this such a no no in your eyes?

Well, you clearly haven't read posts in this thread, but I don't blame you because it's already five pages long. Hint: I have said one million times (no, actually one billion times) that I have absolutely nothing against price changes. I love all the tactical elements price changes bring to this game.

And the price change isn't a complete random guess - it is based on a secret algorithm which is in itself directly linked to how players perform / score on the pitch along with certain circumstances off it.

The problem is that a price change algorithm is secret. It's like having a secret points change algorithm, would you be fine with that? So you wouldn't know how exactly points are calculated, you'd just think they are somehow linked to how players perform on the pitch?

Love the confidence that “I can’t predict this based on one week” implies “it’s totally random”.

The point is we shouldn't be forced to predict them in the first place. Like we shouldn't be forced to predict how points are calculated.

The points change algorithm is already public. The price change algorithm should be similarly public.

[DAREEL]

I think it would be better with no price changing sites full stop..almost everything is put on a plate for us now as it is. Spoon feed crazy.

[nemo7x]

Its not random, but when this thread reaches page 5, it will be odd.....yep im bored now

Hahaha, and even though I know the discussion will probably be lengthy and not interesting, I am still reading it page by page, for fear of missing some random things here.

[blahblah]

Its not random, but when this thread reaches page 5, it will be odd.....yep im bored now

Hahaha, and even though I know the discussion will probably be lengthy and not interesting, I am still reading it page by page, for fear of missing some random things here.

The living hell of FOMO?

[Salte2]

If everyone could find out exactly when a players price would change that would greatly benefit the FPL managers who already spend countless hours on the game.
Those who can check, many times a day, if any of their 15 players, or the 50 on their watchlist are about to rise/drop.
So those managers who are, in all probability, already outscoring the "causal" players by a great margin would be even further ahead.
And those of us who try to limit the time spent on meaningless online games would have another incentive to quit.
So, the question, Finisher1, is, do you think the organizers of the game want as many players as possible, or would they prefer only properly dedicated players?
If the answer is the former, then a bit of unpredictability makes perfect sense.

[blahblah]

It gets worse if the Prediction Sites could accurately predict who will rise\fall and it happened when the next GW would set.

The game would be Hitsville as all those with doubles were brought in before the price hike and the double fallers bring sold.....

[Archy]

I agree with Finisher on this.

Felt compelled to make transfers on Sunday this week when it looked like Sterling was going to rise. Would really have appreciated some additional time to think about it, so was a bit miffed he didn’t rise until few days later.

I know it will settle down over the course of the season, but still, I don’t think we should be left guessing in this way.

I also disagree that FPL giving an explanation of the algorithm would compel them to publish exact details of price changes and when they were going to happen. They could easily tell us how it works without providing the figures, which would still leave space for the prediction websites to do their thing (they would just be able to do it more accurately)

I suspect the reason they don’t tell us is because it is constantly under review (depending on the no of active players etc) and there are also times when they make manual interventions. The latter, in particular, is a little bit naughty IMO

[Finisher1]

If everyone could find out exactly when a players price would change that would greatly benefit the FPL managers who already spend countless hours on the game.

This is getting ridiculous: yesterday Stemania said that the public price change algorithm would benefit masses, but now you say it would benefit dedicated managers! So you both oppose my idea but your arguments are totally opposite to each other!

I agree with Finisher on this.
...
I also disagree that FPL giving an explanation of the algorithm would compel them to publish exact details of price changes and when they were going to happen. They could easily tell us how it works without providing the figures, which would still leave space for the prediction websites to do their thing (they would just be able to do it more accurately)

Spot on. That's exactly how it should be.

[Oxford NZ]

I am sure we all have a rough idea that player x is going to rise fall in any given game week. Transfers in/out and form alone will dictate that and those stats are on the FPL site.
If we want a particular player who is likely to rise then it is just a matter of making that move or not. I seem to regularly loose value on players I do not have a FT to ship out, but I have to look at that in the grand scheme of things and rue the day I brought them in in the first place and move on.
Life and FPL are both full of ups and downs, it is not necessarily immediate gain loss that makes a difference but the way we handle the situation over the season ( 's).
Personally I do not mind the volatility of price changes and I spend less than 1/4 hour per week applying the likely hood of price change effecting player sales and purchases for my team.

[raoul]

We know how points are calculated, so we know how many points we will get when certain things happen.

We also know what price change will happen (+/- 0.1m).

The issue is not the knowledge of the price rise or fall, it is the timing of it. I am not sure equating the price rises with points works, because nobody gives a stuff when their points credit, as long as they do.

If you invest in shares, currencies etc you are not told in advance when prices will move up and down. You try to move ahead of the pack, but there are no guarantees - and you risk moving early, only for new info to mean you wish you hadn't. But then the markets move continuously, which FPL prices don't.

The poll results prove that the majority do not feel one way over the other. I suspect certain types of player who have come to rely on certain assumptions have either come unstuck, or now realise that is a risk moving forward, but it remains the case that potentially nothing at all has changed in how things work. The price change algorithm is whatever it is, and the forecast sites are just that - a forecast. Not a guarantee.

[Finisher1]

We know how points are calculated, so we know how many points we will get when certain things happen.

We also know what price change will happen (+/- 0.1m).

The issue is not the knowledge of the price rise or fall, it is the timing of it. I am not sure equating the price rises with points works, because nobody gives a stuff when their points credit, as long as they do.

We don't know how prices are calculated, we can only predict it. It makes a massive difference when a price change happens. This is a fact. Ask Stemania who just yesterday said it makes a massive difference when a price change happens.

If you invest in shares, currencies etc you are not told in advance when prices will move up and down. You try to move ahead of the pack, but there are no guarantees - and you risk moving early, only for new info to mean you wish you hadn't. But then the markets move continuously, which FPL prices don't.

Comparing FPL to stock market is always so incredibly stupid. In this case, your flawed comparison would make sense only if we were selling players to each other. So if I was selling players to you and you were selling players to me. Please, let's just leave this here, shall we?

[raoul]

We know how points are calculated, so we know how many points we will get when certain things happen.

We also know what price change will happen (+/- 0.1m).

The issue is not the knowledge of the price rise or fall, it is the timing of it. I am not sure equating the price rises with points works, because nobody gives a stuff when their points credit, as long as they do.

We don't know how prices are calculated, we can only predict it. It makes a massive difference when a price change happens. This is a fact. Ask Stemania who just yesterday said it makes a massive difference when a price change happens.

If you invest in shares, currencies etc you are not told in advance when prices will move up and down. You try to move ahead of the pack, but there are no guarantees - and you risk moving early, only for new info to mean you wish you hadn't. But then the markets move continuously, which FPL prices don't.

Comparing FPL to stock market is always so incredibly stupid. In this case, your flawed comparison would make sense only if we were selling players to each other. So if I was selling players to you and you were selling players to me. Please, let's just leave this here, shall we?

no need for the abuse.

whether or not we are buying/selling to/from each other is irrelevant to my point.

And I concur that the timing of a price change can make a big difference. Which is why I choose to build in some leeway and as soon as I see a potential price rise in a player I want I go and get them without delay. Of course I have to balance this against other factors that might change in the interim, but this is just differing stances on risk management.

Anyone moaning that their planned transfer has been scuppered because their assumption about timings proved to be wrong (being based on forecasts which they seem to have been treating as facts) has been shown a flaw in their approach. Probably better to invest time in reconsidering that approach rather than repeatedly arguing that it's not fair?

[Finisher1]

whether or not we are buying/selling to/from each other is irrelevant to my point.

In stock market prices are determined simply by supply and demand, so the comparison to FPL doesn't make any sense at all.

Anyone moaning that their planned transfer has been scuppered because their assumption about timings proved to be wrong (being based on forecasts which they seem to have been treating as facts) has been shown a flaw in their approach. Probably better to invest time in reconsidering that approach rather than repeatedly arguing that it's not fair?

I have never said it's not fair.

The secret points change algorithm would be fair as well, but I would still oppose it.

So if the points change algorithm was secret, would you be saying this: "Anyone moaning that they got too few points because their assumption about how points are calculated proved to be wrong (being based on forecasts which they seem to have been treating as facts) has been shown a flaw in their approach. Probably better to invest time in reconsidering that approach rather than repeatedly arguing that it's not fair?"

Would you?

[MorrisonDullforce]

Mr Murray is in agreement with you Finisher1

https://twitter.com/roneildinho/status/ ... 9962205184

[Finisher1]

Mr Murray is in agreement with you Finisher1

https://twitter.com/roneildinho/status/ ... 9962205184

Yes, it's not a surprise that guys like Murray and Archy agree with me on this. From what I have seen overall they are on the rationally and logically thinking side in the spectrum of FPL managers

[raoul]

whether or not we are buying/selling to/from each other is irrelevant to my point.

In stock market prices are determined simply by supply and demand, so the comparison to FPL doesn't make any sense at all.

Anyone moaning that their planned transfer has been scuppered because their assumption about timings proved to be wrong (being based on forecasts which they seem to have been treating as facts) has been shown a flaw in their approach. Probably better to invest time in reconsidering that approach rather than repeatedly arguing that it's not fair?

I have never said it's not fair.

The secret points change algorithm would be fair as well, but I would still oppose it.

So if the points change algorithm was secret, would you be saying this: "Anyone moaning that they got too few points because their assumption about how points are calculated proved to be wrong (being based on forecasts which they seem to have been treating as facts) has been shown a flaw in their approach. Probably better to invest time in reconsidering that approach rather than repeatedly arguing that it's not fair?"

Would you?

No I wouldn't. Because the difference is that I know the value of the price change. It is only the timing that is the issue. If I do not know how points were awarded I would have to make my assumptions, enter my team, then wait and see what resulted. When I know prices can move, but do not know when (rather than the amount), I can still counter this by moving earlier than I might assume is absolutely necessary, in order to manage my risk.

And FPL prices are determined by supply and demand. There are buyers and sellers. The fact they are not buying and selling with each other, but instead with a secretive being living in FPL Towers, does not change the principle.

As for "not fair", I am not sure why you oppose something that you consider fair. If so, it becomes personal taste - which is fine, but saying everyone should like Marmite because you do is an argument devoid of logic.

[raoul]

anyone else seeing these poll percentages and thinking general election spread?

[Finisher1]

And FPL prices are determined by supply and demand. There are buyers and sellers. The fact they are not buying and selling with each other, but instead with a secretive being living in FPL Towers, does not change the principle.

Wrong. FPL prices are not determined by supply and demand. FPL prices are determined by algorithm based on transfer volumes. Supply/demand and transfer volumes are two different things. FPL Towers are not a buyer or seller, they simply aren't. They don't sell players or buy players. The whole principle is absolutely totally different.

Please, let's just leave it here, because you are factually wrong here. There's really no point arguing about facts. You can disagree with me on the price change thing, that's completely fine, but do yourself a favour and don't mention this bizarre stock market comparison anymore

As for "not fair", I am not sure why you oppose something that you consider fair. If so, it becomes personal taste - which is fine, but saying everyone should like Marmite because you do is an argument devoid of logic.

So are you saying we shouldn't debate anything unless it's a fundamental question about fair and unfair?

[raoul]

Transfers involve supply of a player, or demand for a player. If you really think I am factually wrong, you should sue whoever supplied you with a dictionary because you have been horribly missold. Maybe those PPI people can assist in a claim.

Happy to discuss anyone's personal tastes. But you stated that your personal taste is clearly right, to the level that most people on here should surely agree with you (the poll proves you are wrong in this respect). Anyone who doesn't agree is labelled factually incorrect and stupid and then told they should stop. Maybe they are the ones who chose to vote, and the clever people (your dictionary presumably defines clever as anyone who shares your views) have not bothered lowering themselves by voting.

It always amuses me when someone instructs someone to "leave it there" during an argument. It demonstrates an argument so unpersuasive that the only way to get out is to inform the other party that they are no longer allowed to voice their opinion.

Not really what forums are about surely, but I will indeed leave it there, because I am tired of the arrogance and abuse.

[Finisher1]

Transfers involve supply of a player, or demand for a player. If you really think I am factually wrong, you should sue whoever supplied you with a dictionary because you have been horribly missold. Maybe those PPI people can assist in a claim.

No, you are factually wrong. Supply and demand means there is a buyer and seller who negotiate a price. Buyer wants to pay as small price as possible and a seller wants to receive as big price as possible and they settle a price. In FPL there is no such process. There is only one part, an FPL manager, who individually decides what he does. Supply of players is unlimited.

Supply and demand would be the case in FPL only if there was a limited amount of salahs and a limited amount of sterlings, and we should trade them with other managers and negotiate the price with other managers.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Please, let's just leave this here, shall we?

Oh Finisher. If only you would take your own advice.

[ajcairns]

so did we actually get to the bottom of whether Martial's price was manually doctored or not?

[Finisher1]

Please, let's just leave this here, shall we?

Oh Finisher. If only you would take your own advice.

When I start arguing about facts and say something that is factually proven wrong, I will leave it there. Could you point out when I have done such things?

[wonkypenguin]

Buyer wants to pay as small price as possible and a seller wants to receive as big price as possible and they settle a price

Not always!