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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

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If it turns out that FPL price rises are now less predictable, do you think that is good or bad?

Good, I prefer some unpredictablility
33
36%
Bad, price change timing should be predictable
34
37%
Don't really mind
25
27%
 
Total votes: 92

Finisher1
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Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 08:32

What are cave dwellers thinking about the fact that price change algorithm is secret and hence increases the randomness in this game? We are putting a lot of effort in analyzing stats and making the best decisions based on data, but price changes are totally random. Personally I dislike the fact that price change algorithm is secret, it just increases the randomness in this game.
Last edited by Stemania on 14 Aug 2019, 11:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by S_sutton87 » 14 Aug 2019, 08:37

Football isn't always about stats and data sometimes you just have to go with gut instinct and the football knowledge that you have

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 08:42

S_sutton87 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 08:37
Football isn't always about stats and data sometimes you just have to go with gut instinct and the football knowledge that you have
Sure, but what does a secret price change algorithm has to do with gut instinct or the football knowledge? I tell you what: nothing. The secret price change algorithm only increases randomness. That's all it does. It only increases randomness.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Aug 2019, 09:01

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 08:32
What are cave dwellers thinking about the fact that price change algorithm is secret and hence increases the randomness in this game?
Well a website may be able to crack a pattern if there is one. If not, I'm unsure who this will favour as there's a few ways people play the game. Some move early to catch the rises, but even then most want to wait until the weekend's games are done which may be too late. Others make their transfer at the last minute to get all the info and I'm not sure whether this will be affected negatively via multiple price changes, or completely unaffected.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 09:06

Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 09:01
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 08:32
What are cave dwellers thinking about the fact that price change algorithm is secret and hence increases the randomness in this game?
Well a website may be able to crack a pattern if there is one. If not, I'm unsure who this will favour as there's a few ways people play the game. Some move early to catch the rises, but even then most want to wait until the weekend's games are done which may be too late. Others make their transfer at the last minute to get all the info and I'm not sure whether this will be affected negatively via multiple price changes, or completely unaffected.
It can favour anyone, because the price change algorithm is secret which increases randomness.

However, increasing randomness favours casuals exactly because randomness is equal to everyone. Just like a lottery. That's why the highly skilled and well-informed managers usually want to decrease randomness.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by math! » 14 Aug 2019, 09:16

Rashford rising killed one of my plans for a double swap.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 09:36

Is it ‘random’?
It follows a formula/algorithm doesnt it?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 09:38

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 09:36
Is it ‘random’?
It follows a formula/algorithm doesnt it?
It's a secret algorithm (so random to everyone except FPL Towers) plus we don't know how much manual interventions they are making on top of it. For example predictor sites had Martial only at 60% but he suddenly rose out of eff nowhere.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Zimmerman » 14 Aug 2019, 10:00

Not knowing what it is, is not the same as random.

We don’t know if there is manual intervention - so to suggest there might be is either paranoid or inflammatory. Is there any evidence to suggest there is (or has ever been) manual intervention?

The price rise sites are based on their assumption of the algorithm (based on last year’s formula)... so can we read too much in to their predictions whilst they are still tuning it?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by math! » 14 Aug 2019, 10:08

Frankly if it was random, and they were caught, it would be a PR disaster. They have nothing to gain from it and plenty to lose.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:08

Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:00
The price rise sites are based on their assumption of the algorithm (based on last year’s formula)... so can we read too much in to their predictions whilst they are still tuning it?
No we can't, because the algorithm is clearly changed (or massive manual interventions have been done) which means no one except FPL Towers have any idea about price changes as things stand. So the price changes are currently totally random. That's my whole point.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:12

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 09:06
Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 09:01
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 08:32
What are cave dwellers thinking about the fact that price change algorithm is secret and hence increases the randomness in this game?
Well a website may be able to crack a pattern if there is one. If not, I'm unsure who this will favour as there's a few ways people play the game. Some move early to catch the rises, but even then most want to wait until the weekend's games are done which may be too late. Others make their transfer at the last minute to get all the info and I'm not sure whether this will be affected negatively via multiple price changes, or completely unaffected.
It can favour anyone, because the price change algorithm is secret which increases randomness.

However, increasing randomness favours casuals exactly because randomness is equal to everyone. Just like a lottery. That's why the highly skilled and well-informed managers usually want to decrease randomness.
I do not think it is highly skilled to read a website like fplstatistics and decide to hold back on a transfer because a certain player is at 70% not 99%. The skill was in that website working out the algorithm, or in realising there is no algorithm or it has changed. It seemed pretty clear that Martial and Sterling and Ederson would rise so to call it a lottery is excessive, the only question was when it would happen.

The skill is surely to realise that since the algorithm itself is not a "rule", FPL might choose at any point to change it, and therefore, especially at the start of the season, it might be wise to make transfers a little earlier than you might ideally want in order not to get caught out.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:14

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:08
Zimmerman wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:00
The price rise sites are based on their assumption of the algorithm (based on last year’s formula)... so can we read too much in to their predictions whilst they are still tuning it?
No we can't, because the algorithm is clearly changed (or massive manual interventions have been done) which means no one except FPL Towers have any idea about price changes as things stand. So the price changes are currently totally random. That's my whole point.
totally random? Matip rising, Sterling falling, and Luke Amos's price doubling … that is totally random.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 10:14

Weren't the players that rose/fell basically the ones at the top of the price change site lists?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:18

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:12
I do not think it is highly skilled to read a website like fplstatistics and decide to hold back on a transfer because a certain player is at 70% not 99%.
Of course it's not, that's why the price change algorithm should be completely public so there would be no need for price change lottery.

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:12
The skill is surely to realise that since the algorithm itself is not a "rule", FPL might choose at any point to change it, and therefore, especially at the start of the season, it might be wise to make transfers a little earlier than you might ideally want in order not to get caught out.
How on earth did you end up in that conclusion? Since none of us knows the algorithm, it could have just been vice versa, that the price changes were slower this season, in which case you shouldn't have rushed transfers. No one knows it, it's a lottery.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:19

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:14
Weren't the players that rose/fell basically the ones at the top of the price change site lists?
Some of them were nowhere near to rise in those lists created by some very intelligent mathematicians based on their algorithm calculation. So, the fact that those players still rose, is simply due to randomness.

Why is the price change algorithm secret? What is the reason for it?

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:29

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:14
totally random? Matip rising, Sterling falling, and Luke Amos's price doubling … that is totally random.
The fact that they happened now and not later like some very intelligent mathematicians predicted is random.

My point is this: predicting when price changes happen should not be a factor in this game.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:31

of course the true skill was picking Martial for GW1 :wink:

although that decision was partly affected by someone on fiso repeatedly bigging him up at the tail end of last season so thanks to whoever that was. Name escapes me …

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:32

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:31
of course the true skill was picking Martial for GW1 :wink:

although that decision was partly affected by someone on fiso repeatedly bigging him up at the tail end of last season so thanks to whoever that was. Name escapes me …
You are welcome :lol:

Martial is a great pick and picking him for GW1 was clearly a solid move. But the randomly early price rise is just an undeserved gain, that's all.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 14 Aug 2019, 10:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 10:33

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:31
of course the freaking lucky bstrd bit was picking Martial for GW1 :wink:
Corrected :wink:

But they won't play Chelsea every week 😂

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:37

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:29
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:14
totally random? Matip rising, Sterling falling, and Luke Amos's price doubling … that is totally random.
The fact that they happened now and not later like some very intelligent mathematicians predicted is random.

My point is this: predicting when price changes happen should not be a factor in this game.
but it is? Otherwise the prediction sites would not exist.

And the prediction sites have not always been spot on, correct? So either the algorithm is not as simple as those sites think, or there is an algorithm with a built in random factor to ensure nobody can know perfectly when a price change will happen and therefore introducing an additional element to the game.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Stemania » 14 Aug 2019, 10:39

The prediction sites are usually the least accurate during the opening few weeks (and around heavy wc periods).

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:41

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:39
The prediction sites are usually the least accurate during the opening few weeks (and around heavy wc periods).
Yes they are. That's why randomness is increased. Guessing when price changes might happen should not be a factor in this game in the first place. Do you agree on this? Or do you think it's a necessary factor in this game to try and guess when price changes happen? Is this price guessing game really what we need in FPL?

We watch matches. We analyze stats. We use our football knowledge. And then we guess when the price changes might happen.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 14 Aug 2019, 10:44, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:41

blahblah wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:33
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:31
of course the freaking lucky bstrd bit was picking Martial for GW1 :wink:
Corrected :wink:

But they won't play Chelsea every week 😂
Glad you do not write my speeches blah :lol: :lol: :lol:

For the record, Martial was an obvious pick in my opinion, as he had an amazing points per minute on the pitch last season, and his only two negatives seemed to be an attitude issue and not getting those minutes on the pitch. Preseason, plus Lukaku move, suggested both negatives had gone.

Oh, and Chelsea's rapidly disappearing defence and an injured Kante, meaning zero chance they would keep a clean sheet last weekend.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:44

Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:41
Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:39
The prediction sites are usually the least accurate during the opening few weeks (and around heavy wc periods).
Yes they are. That's why randomness is increased. Guessing when price changes happen should not be a factor in this game in the first place. Do you agree on this? Or do you think it's a necessary factor in this game to try and guess when price changes happen? Is this price guessing game a crucial part of FPL?

We watch matches. We analyze stats. We use our football knowledge. And then we guess when the price changes might happen.
and we guess when Sterling might score a hat trick.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:47

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:44
Finisher1 wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:41
Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:39
The prediction sites are usually the least accurate during the opening few weeks (and around heavy wc periods).
Yes they are. That's why randomness is increased. Guessing when price changes happen should not be a factor in this game in the first place. Do you agree on this? Or do you think it's a necessary factor in this game to try and guess when price changes happen? Is this price guessing game a crucial part of FPL?

We watch matches. We analyze stats. We use our football knowledge. And then we guess when the price changes might happen.
and we guess when Sterling might score a hat trick.
Sure, it's the ultimate purpose in FPL to guess when players are likely to score, isn't it? It's totally different to guess when price changes might happen, that really should not be part of FPL.
Last edited by Finisher1 on 14 Aug 2019, 10:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by blahblah » 14 Aug 2019, 10:48

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:41
blahblah wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:33
raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:31
of course the freaking lucky bstrd bit was picking Martial for GW1 :wink:
Corrected :wink:

But they won't play Chelsea every week 😂
Glad you do not write my speeches blah :lol: :lol: :lol:

For the record, Martial was an obvious pick in my opinion, as he had an amazing points per minute on the pitch last season, and his only two negatives seemed to be an attitude issue and not getting those minutes on the pitch. Preseason, plus Lukaku move, suggested both negatives had gone.

Oh, and Chelsea's rapidly disappearing defence and an injured Kante, meaning zero chance they would keep a clean sheet last weekend.
Yep to all 😂

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by raoul » 14 Aug 2019, 10:48

although Raheem has already texted me the dates he will score for the season, so that's helpful.

On a slightly less wind-up note, I would be intrigued to hear Dod's views on this, given his game playing background.

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Finisher1 » 14 Aug 2019, 10:50

raoul wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:48
although Raheem has already texted me the dates he will score for the season, so that's helpful.
What's your point?

Guessing when players are likely to score = the ultimate purpose in FPL
Guessing when price changes might happen = should not be a part of this game by any means

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Re: Unpredictable price change timing - opinion poll

Post by Sutter Kane » 14 Aug 2019, 10:56

Stemania wrote:
14 Aug 2019, 10:39
The prediction sites are usually the least accurate around heavy wc periods.
My partner is the least accurate to predict during these times too.

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