FISO

cymbalrush84 wrote: ↑06 Aug 2019, 15:16

Bixer wrote:Would you believe I have Sterling, Salah, Kane and KdB

I would believe it, but I'd like to see at what detriment...

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Current team as it stands;



Pope

Van Dijk, Zinchenko, (£4.5m def), (£4.5m def)

Salah, Sterling, KdB, Barkley

Kane, King

Bench: (£4.0m keeper), Dendoncker, Greenwood, (£4.0m def)



Still umming and ahhing, but I think it has most bases covered well enough. It still benefits from the clean sheets of Liverpool and City like most other teams will, only hindrance I suppose is that I'll miss out on the attacking returns of TAA or Robertson.

The weakness is obviously in defence in general, but there are enough nailed on £4.5m options to pick two that'll plug the gap. I'm actually leaning towards Chambers as one of them, as even though it's Arsenal, I do like their opening two fixtures. Otherwise there's the likes of Diop, Dunk, Cathcart etc who can all do a job.

Nice team that Bixer, would you not prefer Perez instead of king though and switch to a 4-5-1 ?

I think long term Perez will score a lot more than him, thats only reason i say this

Stevieste wrote: ↑06 Aug 2019, 16:58 Nice team that Bixer, would you not prefer Perez instead of king though and switch to a 4-5-1 ?

I think long term Perez will score a lot more than him, thats only reason i say this

Cheers! Yeah I must admit, Perez is actually the one player I don't currently have that I really wish I did. It is however why I like Barkley as a placeholder, as it should be quite easy to upgrade him should it appear I've made the wrong choice after a week or two.

Part of the reasoning behind King however is that due to my team making a few sacrifices to squeeze in the big 4, I'm trying to keep the rest as safe as possible should it not quite go to plan and with so many people keen on Bournemouth's attack, that's another base I've got covered there.

Bixer wrote: ↑06 Aug 2019, 17:03

Stevieste wrote: ↑06 Aug 2019, 16:58 Nice team that Bixer, would you not prefer Perez instead of king though and switch to a 4-5-1 ?

I think long term Perez will score a lot more than him, thats only reason i say this

Cheers! Yeah I must admit, Perez is actually the one player I don't currently have that I really wish I did. It is however why I like Barkley as a placeholder, as it should be quite easy to upgrade him should it appear I've made the wrong choice after a week or two.

Part of the reasoning behind King however is that due to my team making a few sacrifices to squeeze in the big 4, I'm trying to keep the rest as safe as possible should it not quite go to plan and with so many people keen on Bournemouth's attack, that's another base I've got covered there.

I like the Pope pick, im on him myself, ive actually doubled up with Taylor the LB.
I think Burnley keep it tight at the back this season ( or so im hoping )

Im starting the season 5-4-1

Ive gone for Barkey myself and think he should have a good season, but failing that i will swap him for Maupay who i think will do well at brighton

Citeh and Liverpool defensive coverage.

No 4.5 forwards.

Balance.

Big three players in.

Boom.

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You just need 1 super premium to leverage the armband.

Super premiums without the armband are poor value. Once you have your captain you are almost always better off with (3x £7m) players than (1x £12m & 2x £4.5m)

Stu255 wrote: ↑06 Aug 2019, 19:47 You just need 1 super premium to leverage the armband.

Super premiums without the armband are poor value. Once you have your captain you are almost always better off with (3x £7m) players than (1x £12m & 2x £4.5m)

I think its a good team personally and nobody knows the best way to do it, as nobody knows what the results will be.

Also Man city play spurs 2nd game so he will be able to Captain Salah then whih makes it easier, as you cant really just stick it on your one 12 million player every week as sometimes he have a hard fixture or might be rested etc, so better to have good cover imo

cymbalrush84 wrote: ↑06 Aug 2019, 19:33 Citeh and Liverpool defensive coverage.

No 4.5 forwards.

Balance.

Big three players in.

Boom.

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Solid team, though I would consider swapping Loris for Pope or Heaton. Loris usually scores around 140 points, Pope's last full season he scored 150 and the combined Burnely keepers last season scored around 130 points. Heaton has a couple of 150 point seasons as well. I'd be fairly confident one of them will be in the same region as Loris based on clean sheets, saves and bonus points.

Then use the 1m saved then let's you upgrade Diop to a 5.5m defender. Coleman and Keane are fairly productive fantasy players and have a good fixture list to start the season, there's Maguire or AWB from Man Utd, or Spurs 5.5m defenders. There's other options in the 5.5m bracket as well.

Just a thought!

Sterling + Kelly?
230 + 40 = 270

Or

KDB + VVD?
200 + 200 = 400

*******

Kane + Dunk + Diop
200 + 90 + 90 = 380

Or

Jimenez + Laporte + Digne
180 + 175 + 160 = 515

Stu255 wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 00:37 Sterling + Kelly?
230 + 40 = 270

Or

KDB + VVD?
200 + 200 = 400

*******

Kane + Dunk + Diop
200 + 90 + 90 = 380

Or

Jimenez + Laporte + Digne
180 + 175 + 160 = 515

Where are these numbers from your just throwing around ? KDB 200 points ?,
he didnt even get 100 points last season.

Im looking forward to keeping an eye on your team this season as you seem very sure about your way being the correct way and only way to play this game.

Wonder what the excuses be, if teams like above beat yours by say a random number like 200 points for example

Have the three, plus Vardy. Three 4.5 mids to facilitate (523) so i'm taking a risk sure, but I hate tying funds up on a bench. Expect to early wildcard so can ride out injuries or suspensions.

Stu255 wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 00:37 Sterling + Kelly?
230 + 40 = 270

Or

KDB + VVD?
200 + 200 = 400

*******

Kane + Dunk + Diop
200 + 90 + 90 = 380

Or

Jimenez + Laporte + Digne
180 + 175 + 160 = 515

With those calculations though you've completely removed the captaincy potential altogether, which is slightly skewed.

You'd never captain KdB or VVD, whereas you would occasionally captain Sterling.

Similarly you'd never captain Jimenez, Laporte or Digne, whereas you would occasionally captain Kane.

I see the point you're making, but just because you can't captain all 3 or 4 every week, doesn't mean you never captain them.

You are missing Stu's point in that the above has a Premium Capt and they are the surplus Premiums compared to their Opportunity Cost ie the alternatives....

Stevieste wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 07:19

Stu255 wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 00:37 Sterling + Kelly?
230 + 40 = 270

Or

KDB + VVD?
200 + 200 = 400

*******

Kane + Dunk + Diop
200 + 90 + 90 = 380

Or

Jimenez + Laporte + Digne
180 + 175 + 160 = 515

Where are these numbers from your just throwing around ? KDB 200 points ?,
he didnt even get 100 points last season.

Im looking forward to keeping an eye on your team this season as you seem very sure about your way being the correct way and only way to play this game.

Wonder what the excuses be, if teams like above beat yours by say a random number like 200 points for example

I suspect the 200 points figure is a projection based on previous FPL production. KDB has two seasons around the 200 mark, and Kane had three consecutive 200+ seasons before his injury trouble last season (arguably he would have scored over 200 again without the injuries).

You would never pick Harry Kane if you think he's only going to score 160 points again. Likewise you would never pick KDB if he's only going to score a 100 points. You pick them because you think they'll return to being 200+ point players.

Bixer wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 09:38

Stu255 wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 00:37 Sterling + Kelly?
230 + 40 = 270

Or

KDB + VVD?
200 + 200 = 400

*******

Kane + Dunk + Diop
200 + 90 + 90 = 380

Or

Jimenez + Laporte + Digne
180 + 175 + 160 = 515

With those calculations though you've completely removed the captaincy potential altogether, which is slightly skewed.

You'd never captain KdB or VVD, whereas you would occasionally captain Sterling.

Similarly you'd never captain Jimenez, Laporte or Digne, whereas you would occasionally captain Kane.

I see the point you're making, but just because you can't captain all 3 or 4 every week, doesn't mean you never captain them.

True, you would probably captain Kane or Sterling occasionally. However, look at the point differences - 140 and 135. It is highly unlikely occasionally captaining them would make up that difference. In all likelihood they would need to be a more regular captain.

If you think about it, Kane has a few 200+ point seasons. Captain him every week and that figure doubles, but if you captain him let's say 1 in 4 games that only adds an extra quarter working on the basis that the weeks you captain him are the weeks he fires. Adding another 50 points or so still leaves the team short by a good 90 points. So he would need to be captain more than half the time to make up the points difference.

Same goes for Sterling. He scored 234 last season. Captain him every week that figures doubles, but to get near to the point differential you'd need to captain him more than half the time.

See the problem? You can't captain Kane and Sterling in more than half the season, and if you do captain them 19 times each, what happens to Salah? He doesn't get the arm band. So while you are right that the points don't take into account the captain's armband, the problem is that the numbers of times they need to captain to make up the difference creates further problems for your team.

This really isn't as complicated as it is being made out to be.

Usually 2x7m + 1x6m will beat an 11+m and 2x4.5m. I'm not counting the 4.5's as bench players as the former can have that too. It is true that a cheap defence may emerge but it is pure guesswork atm. Last season TAA, Robbo and VvD would have spanked Salah, W-B plus a 4.5m....

Go to ffstuff.co.uk and check out the PpM and PpG.

I don’t want to be confrontational, lots of ways to play the game and anything can happen. So outside strategies can do well.

But I’m just making a point that there is better value in the historical data and the price landscape than carrying spare super premiums.


The assumption with the projections is that you would have 1 super premium to be the captain and these are some illustrations for having additional super premiums.

The illustrations show that each surplus super premium probably costs you around 100pts over a season with the opportunity cost of more optimal combos.

Mike1989 wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 10:19 True, you would probably captain Kane or Sterling occasionally. However, look at the point differences - 140 and 135. It is highly unlikely occasionally captaining them would make up that difference. In all likelihood they would need to be a more regular captain.

If you think about it, Kane has a few 200+ point seasons. Captain him every week and that figure doubles, but if you captain him let's say 1 in 4 games that only adds an extra quarter working on the basis that the weeks you captain him are the weeks he fires. Adding another 50 points or so still leaves the team short by a good 90 points. So he would need to be captain more than half the time to make up the points difference.

Same goes for Sterling. He scored 234 last season. Captain him every week that figures doubles, but to get near to the point differential you'd need to captain him more than half the time.

See the problem? You can't captain Kane and Sterling in more than half the season, and if you do captain them 19 times each, what happens to Salah? He doesn't get the arm band. So while you are right that the points don't take into account the captain's armband, the problem is that the numbers of times they need to captain to make up the difference creates further problems for your team.

Yeah fair I get your point, but it's also making the assumption in those scenarios that you have to pick between one group or the other.

For example; Sterling + Kelly or KdB + VVD - in my team that's not a decision to make, I literally just have all 4. Limiting groups down to banks of 2 or 3 isn't really representative when you'll seldom have to make such restrictive selections.




If you widen the groups a little in an attempt to be more reflective of having a £100m budget to play with, let's say under the assumption that Salah is the only super premium you 'need';

- Sterling + KdB + VVD + Kelly
or
- Pogba + Eriksen + Robertson + TAA

Both taking up £32m of your overall budget, but the second group spreading that out more. First group gets 682, second gets 738. Then you can say the times you'd captain Sterling in that scenario probably make up for the 50 point gap where you'd be unlikely to captain any of the second group (using Stu's rough 200 + 40 figures for KdB and Kelly respectively). It's also tricky to make such a comparison however as people having the likes of Kelly in their team aren't actually ever be going to playing him.


I suppose ultimately my point is just that I think to say having more than one £11m+ player in your team is poor value is too black and white - there are too many variables to say for sure either way.

But surely in the short/immediate term - it’s worth the premium for the security blanket.

By their nature, Wilson, Barkley, Moura could easily score you 6 points?

Digne scored 2 or less in 21 weeks last season
Jiménez scores 2 or less in 19 weeks last season
Dunk scored 2 or less in 27 weeks last season

When I did a comparison between Sterling and Salah; Sterling wouldnt have been picked as captain 17 times. He still accrued 95 points in those games (c5.6 ppg). Seems quite good to me.

Swings and roundabouts for me. If you go all three then it's so much easier to move to other premium players later on if needed (if Kane flops but Auba or Aguero start scoring heavily). Also if you just went Sterling and Salah then getting Kane if he starts firing big time would be a wildcard or major adjustment. If you just go Kane and Salah say then swapping to Salah and Sterling would be similar pain.

On the flipside though you are kind of banking on them all doing something fairly quickly as if one gets injured then re-distributing the cash if you downgrade would be a lot of transfers or a wildcard. At least you can do it over a few weeks though...

Zimmerman wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 11:07 But surely in the short/immediate term - it’s worth the premium for the security blanket.

By their nature, Wilson, Barkley, Moura could easily score you 6 points?

Digne scored 2 or less in 21 weeks last season
Jiménez scores 2 or less in 19 weeks last season
Dunk scored 2 or less in 27 weeks last season

When I did a comparison between Sterling and Salah; Sterling wouldnt have been picked as captain 17 times. He still accrued 95 points in those games (c5.6 ppg). Seems quite good to me.

Well in any one GW, anything can happen but over time the above is true. I'm reluctant to post examples as people will go off on that, rather than the general point....

Regarding the Security Blanket: there really isn't one for the first few GW's?

The value arguments apply at lower price points too. There's a flip side that if/when we find this year's Jimenez or Fraser, then you can afford to be "wasteful" on your super premiums and premiums by getting more points for less value.

The argument about cheaper players having better value works all the way down the price scale, not just at super premium level, although it's more pronounced there. As ever, it's more about what the over performing/underpriced picks can provide (whatever their price) and then how you can spend the rest.

Having said that, I'd not put Kane, Salah and Sterling into one team as I don't think it's likely to work over the long term. Two is fine, a single super premium will probably match quite closely if there are no Fraser's or Jimenez's, and the way the early fixtures are I can see getting away with just a Salah captaincy until an early wildcard.

phrampton534 wrote: ↑07 Aug 2019, 11:31 If you go all three then it's so much easier to move to other premium players later on if needed (if Kane flops but Auba or Aguero start scoring heavily). Also if you just went Sterling and Salah then getting Kane if he starts firing big time would be a wildcard or major adjustment.

The problem is "if they start firing" because they will definitely do so at some point and it will often be unpredictably intermittent - just because Kane scores 13 points to Auba's 2 in GW1, doesn't mean you should make that transfer; you'd have to believe Kane is a season keeper based on one game which is virtually impossible to declare. Chasing someone who's just scored twice by removing another premium with a decent fixture can hurt...a lot. So as someone else said, there is no safety blanket early on.

I think you can get away with picking 3 premiums early on but it's not a fundable strategy long term for me.

I still cant decide whether I want the big 3 or to go for KDB over Sterling and pump that 2.5 elsewhere :/

Through all my tinkering I've never dropped any of rico, vvd, salah, sterling, kane. The others have been all completely different at one point or another (Laporte was in that list until I swapped him out for Ederson to maintain City defensive coverage and brought in Zouma)

just had a play around and came up with a pretty decent squad with all 3

Pope/Button
Van Dijk Digne Zinchenko Cathcart 4.0m
Barkley Salah Sterling Tielemens Dendonckor
Kane King Wesley

Thoughts ?

Pope

TAA, AWB, Digne, Rico, Zinchenko

Salah, Sterling, Perez

Kane, Jimenez

Heaton, Dendoncker, Greenwood, Hayden

Thoughts?

Jiminez > King/Jota to fund a Rico upgrade if he is playing every week? Could also squeak .5 out of the keepers and just go with one

Best team I've seen with all 3 in anyway

I like to rotate keepers and I can deal with Rico if he stops playing..