FPL's Likely Champion - What Should We Learn?

[Bixer]

Getting into the top 10k and 100k or so regularly requires a level of skill.



Winning outright is almost always mostly luck.



There's little more to it. We all have an array of 50/50 calls we have to make in a given season and the overall winner basically just happens to be fortunate enough to get most of theirs right. There's not really much you can learn from a winner in any given season as doing so is based purely on hindsight, which is almost literally the exact opposite of what the game is about.

[Zimmerman]

Agree with Bixer.

It’s like analysing the captain choices of the top teams.... low and behold, they’ll have got the right choice more often than not.

I think it’s always good to do the analysis as per Ruth. It’s just how much you actually learn/take away.

Maybe what you learn is that you can’t beat the system. You cant beat the template. Your only chance is spotting the template choices ahead of the curve... and for that you need luck.

[Ruth_NZ]

Maybe what you learn is that you can’t beat the system. You cant beat the template. Your only chance is spotting the template choices ahead of the curve... and for that you need luck.

Yes, this is quite possible. I'm still undecided but I didn't finish exploring the game yet really.

[Valeron]

You think I can't see where the luck is?

Where you are going wrong is in the assumption that an analysis such as this is made with the purpose of copying something about what the guy did. It isn't. It is done with the purpose of understanding what happened and why. That helps me to form a better understanding about the game and the better I understand it, the better I can develop my own approach to it.

It is odd, and sad, how some people seem to be offended or outraged by that.

I'm not going wrong. Hand picking the guy who happens to be top this season due to variance and analysing his team is a waste of time outside of accepting there's a load of randomness in any given season. Any more and you will tie yourself in knots/overthink. There's a clearly defined path to consistent success in the game, there are no keys to secret treasure chests in the game these days.

[Ruth_NZ]

Consistent success? I didn't know anyone had won it twice?

First you are defining my aims for me and telling me I can't want anything else. Then you are telling me that you understand my reasons for making my analysis better than I do. Then you are telling me there is a clearly defined path to achieving those prescribed aims, one way and the only way, and that I should take advice and/or copy those that know what it is. And lastly you are telling me that there is nothing new to be discovered.

I think you must live in a pretty miserable universe. Seems that way to me anyway.

[Tall Paul]

I think you must live in a pretty miserable universe. Seems that way to me anyway.

Especially after doing his nuts on Burnley being relegated this season

[wonkypenguin]

First you are defining my aims for me and telling me I can't want anything else. Then you are telling me that you understand my reasons for making my analysis better than I do.

It's the Internet .. would you expect anything less?

[Stu255]

I think everyone would benefit from being more open minded and a bit less personal.

Separating the idea / viewpoint from the person proposing the idea is always a good thing to do.

I often propose things that I don’t myself believe in because I am interested to see if anyone else can develop it beyond my own thinking.

Ideas are supposed to be tested, not owned.


I really like the idea that some decisions are vastly more important than others. I think some GW’s are vastly more important than others.

It’s more important not to screw up those GW’s with big points spreads (DGW’s or those with juicer features).
If you want to take a punt it is probably safer to do so on the GW’s where the FPL distribution curve is likely to be less spread out as you are unlikely to be really punished for your punt.

You can take a good statistical guess as to what the average FPL points score will be based on the upcoming fixtures. If the forecast is high, play safe and sail close to the crowd. If the forecast is low you can gamble, with less downside.

[cesc408]

He has Doherty 12p and Frasers 9p on the bench.

Luckily for him everybody else has done so bad that he gets away with that.

[germainelefoe]

It is probably worth looking at his key gameweeks, the ones where he had a top 100k GW rank. Those are the big jumps.

Excellent post Ruth thanks. A lot of top analysis and information there.

To be fair to him Ruth, on his GW34 WC, he bought in both Siggy and DCL because Everton had Fulham away in GW34, I don't think either Everton player were mentioned at all on FFS or FISO for those going for the GW34 WC/GW35 BB combo. As it happens both blanked in 34 and he sold then in 35 before both returned against United. He also only went with single Brighton defence and held both Salah and Wilson, neither of whom were template, FFS or otherwise. I think his later wildcard was very brave given his position.

I agree with this, I think he has been very far from the template. Given he did that when he already had a solid lead, he must be brave. All of us here would no doubt play it completely safe and lock it up if we were clear at the top of the game.

[Dajiba]

Hi. I rarely post as I don’t have too much of use to say (at least that is what I thought), but find myself at 16th overall this year

I think it’s largely luck. Getting the 50/50 and Captain calls right most of the time. They key things I’ve Do e have been to be very patient with players after I brought them in, planned ahead, tried to do transfers in pairs, followed fixtures and form, and kept flexibility by having money in the bank.

No way the difference in what I have been doing this year is huge enough to justify the change from 10k to top 100 (hopefully!) so I guess it’s down to luck....

[Talkie Toaster]

Hi. I rarely post as I don’t have too much of use to say (at least that is what I thought), but find myself at 16th overall this year

I think it’s largely luck. Getting the 50/50 and Captain calls right most of the time. They key things I’ve Do e have been to be very patient with players after I brought them in, planned ahead, tried to do transfers in pairs, followed fixtures and form, and kept flexibility by having money in the bank.

No way the difference in what I have been doing this year is huge enough to justify the change from 10k to top 100 (hopefully!) so I guess it’s down to luck....

Up to 14th now (and #1 in Canada).
Congratulations on a great score and an even better kit.

I wouldn't be surprised if MoSe is along in a bit to encourage you to join the forum league next season.

[Turd Ferguson]

Wow, congrats on the incredible season. Do you think there were any key decisions you made along the way that differentiated this from seasons past? Or was it just a consistent stream of captain choices and bringing in/holding the right players?

[Dajiba]

Thanks guys.

I would be very happy to join the Fiso league if someone points me in the right direction and it boosts the league
ranking. Having said that I can’t imagine those near the top in it would want to be bumped down?

One other thing I have done is kept AWB and Doherty, and as many of the rest of my defence as I could the same all season, tried to avoid defence transfers.

According to those in my work mini league the key decision was selling my soul to the devil in exchange for FPL points

I read Fiso and FFS(not a member) , no other sites and have to say that the contributions on this site are consistently the better of the two. I watch about 1 game per week so can’t attribute any success to that

I think getting on players early is key, and getting off. I had Sons run, Pogba run. Jiminez early. None of that seems to have been individually key, i think it’s perhaps a question of consistently getting the calls right.

I have spent more time on studying the fixtures and my defence rotation than in previous years

I guess next year will be a good test, if I can break the top 10000 or perhaps 1000 again

[raoul]

probably best you hold back on answering this but am intrigued to know how you are going to manage the final week.

You could potentially finish anywhere from 2nd to about 40th.

Good luck however you play it, and I hope your captain pick is a belter.

[Dajiba]

... I think TCing Salah vs Huddersfield and getting 140 points that week was clearly key to get up this far. I would not normally play that in a single gameweek, it was a necessity due to how the chips and schedule fell and wasn’t the result of any particularly in depth plan

[Talkie Toaster]

I would be very happy to join the Fiso league if someone points me in the right direction and it boosts the league
ranking. Having said that I can’t imagine those near the top in it would want to be bumped down?

Yeah, I was thinking more for next season really.

Spencer4 normally organises the FISO Forum league and the details for it are posted in the announcements section (near the top of the page, in-between the fpl subforums and the main threads).

There's also a link to it in RomynPG's sidegames and resources thread: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=127735&start=1 (FISO Official Mini-League), which also contains details of many other leagues and sidegames which are available. Most of them are open to all members.

All the best for the final GW.

[Stemania]

Looks like he'll win it with a cracking score of 2659 and a hefty margin to 2nd. Well done, sir, wherever you are!

By my reckoning that's the second highest score in the history of FPL, behind only Reeson's 2668 in 09/10.

[Dajiba]

I would be very happy to join the Fiso league if someone points me in the right direction and it boosts the league
ranking. Having said that I can’t imagine those near the top in it would want to be bumped down?

Yeah, I was thinking more for next season really.

Spencer4 normally organises the FISO Forum league and the details for it are posted in the announcements section (near the top of the page, in-between the fpl subforums and the main threads).

There's also a link to it in RomynPG's sidegames and resources thread: viewtopic.php?f=18&t=127735&start=1 (FISO Official Mini-League), which also contains details of many other leagues and sidegames which are available. Most of them are open to all members.

All the best for the final GW.

Thanks! Will join next season then for sure, target top 10k again. Looks like I finished 11th overall in the end though equal points with 8th. I would never have thought number of transfers would come into play to such an effect!

[Zimmerman]

I’d definitely be claiming and declaring 8th

[Stemania]

Wow, well done Dajiba, that's amazing!!

I make that the 4th (?) highest finish ever by a FISOer (after only spidey's win, theplayer's 3rd and silky's 7th) - someone please correct me.

Meanwhile, just a few places ahead of you, the winner has done his first interview:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/football/ ... sK3Eiu9GRs

[Stemania]

For ease, here's the actual quotes:

"To be honest even though I knew I had a good lead, when you're number one you still think someone might pull something crazy off,"

"We've just had two Champions League matches where some absolutely incredible stuff happened so I think for me it wasn't until about halftime in the matches this morning that I felt that nobody was possibly going to catch me.

"Everyone is loving it. The phone has been going wild. There have been constant updates on what's happening and who I'm talking to and everyone wants to know the TV times. Everyone is enjoying it and saying 'Adam you're famous' and I'm like 'yeah for 15 minutes.'"

"[Salah and Mane] to me were the threat and I knew a lot of people would captain those players, and perhaps there were triple captain chips floating around, so they were what I was concerned about. Salah didn't do anything in terms of actually scoring or getting Fantasy Premier League returns but Mane did, he scored two goals, but that wasn't enough for anyone to overtake me."

"It's not a realistic thought [that he would ever win]. There are six million people playing it so even just statistically I don't think anybody plays to win. Most people play to go in a mini league with their friends, their family, their work mates and they play for the banter and for the fun. My main objective still was to win my mini league and this is just icing on the cake.

"For all the six years I've played we've had it and it's been great and what the game has been about. I believe I have won every year but the others have consistently tried to catch me. It was a closer run thing last year but obviously this year it was a bit of a blowout but they'll be back at me next year so bring it on.

"I don't think I'm going to retire. There is a temptation because you know you're not going to get number one again but I guess this year I played as another player of the game, I was anonymous. Next year I will be a past FPL champion and I'm interested to see, because my method is to play your own game not take what other people are thinking, so it'll be interesting to see if I can manage that with people seeing how last year's winner is going to do."

"If I was able to go to a West Ham game during their Premier League season that would be fantastic,"

[MPTree]

Interesting. "My method is to play your own game" - I wonder if you do have to do this to a certain extent for a shot at the number one spot. Captaining the poll leader every week protects your rank and minimises swings, but probably won't catapult you up the overall rankings too frequently.

[Stemania]

I think if you ask just about any successful player (inc the vast majority of the top HoF managers with 'consistent' records) it's one of the few things they will all fairly consistantly say (and have, by my recollection, all essentially said if asked).

The words 'template' and 'differential' are two of the most corrosive in FPL imo, and in my experience most successful managers tend not to care too much about ownership in either direction in practice (and certainly don't try to regularly 'beat it' or 'cover it'). The one piece of advice I've always been an adherent to is the dismally disappointing "try to get as many points as you can". It sounds incredibly dumb to say, but it's amazing the lengths managers go to not do that - usually via being put off players because of low ownership or, far worse, being put off players because of high ownership.

[Finisher1]

"I think Player X from Team Y could be a good pick but I already have two other players from Team Y, so should I avoid triple-up?" is a question we hear incredibly often, but it doesn't make sense.

If he is a good pick, he is a good pick. If he is a poor pick, he is a poor pick. It doesn't matter at all whether or not you have his team mates.

On the other hand it's understandable those questions arise, because so much discussion in FPL-related sites (and podcasts, I assume but have not listened to them) is focused on 'differentials' and 'covers'. That doesn't make sense. I think the only relevant discussion is who is likely to score points.

[DavidLloydIsAHero]

Certainly in attacking positions you should be picking the best points potential but there is definitely an argument to spread your bets more on defence and take coverage into account there imo.

[Finisher1]

Certainly in attacking positions you should be picking the best points potential but there is definitely an argument to spread your bets more on defence and take coverage into account there imo.

No, there is no reason to take coverage into account. You should always go for points potential in defence as well.

[raoul]

Assuming you want to go for it, picking 3 defenders from one team has a high ceiling. But it stops you picking others and so reduces likelihood of hitting other Clean Sheets.

If defending a good OR, cover makes more sense.

[Finisher1]

Assuming you want to go for it, picking 3 defenders from one team has a high ceiling. But it stops you picking others and so reduces likelihood of hitting other Clean Sheets.

If defending a good OR, cover makes more sense.

No, always go for the highest expected points.

Let's say team A has 60% likelihood for a clean sheet, while team B has 55% likelihood and team C has 50% likelihood. Then your best defence would include three defenders from team A. Not one defender from each team, no. Three defenders from team A.

[garypallister]

I find this thread interesting and I appreciate both the analysis and the people saying it is useless. I just have to say it is absolutely incredible watching a player finish 57 pts over the 2nd place with 6.3 mil teams competing! WHAT A RIDE