GW34 Captain Poll
- Turd Ferguson
- FISOhead
- Posts: 943
- Joined: 16 Aug 2015, 03:32
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
I was looking for news on Son's injury and saw this post-game interview.
Obviously if he's injured he's not going to advertise it but there wasn't any concern on his face when asked about players stepping up. He was rocking back and forth on his feet without any sign of discomfort. He seems good to go to me.
Obviously if he's injured he's not going to advertise it but there wasn't any concern on his face when asked about players stepping up. He was rocking back and forth on his feet without any sign of discomfort. He seems good to go to me.
- BobMem
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 4222
- Joined: 24 Dec 2010, 08:54
- FS Record: The Graduates - FISO 5AS H2H Champions 13/14
FISO King of Rock and Roll - Elimination game winner 2015/16 - FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Not a chance I was going to captain Duffy...
...until I read this.
...until I read this.
- Bixer
- FISOhead
- Posts: 791
- Joined: 14 Dec 2015, 09:37
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Seems like madness, but with Kane's injury and Spurs potentially rotating a bit this weekend, I just can't see past Duffy.
-
- FISO Knight
- Posts: 11198
- Joined: 13 Sep 2013, 12:30
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
No standout option this week, so think I may chance it on Murray. Probably Vardy vice.
Would actually be tempted to captain Auba if guaranteed to start, despite Arsenal's away form.
Would actually be tempted to captain Auba if guaranteed to start, despite Arsenal's away form.
-
- Treebeard
- Posts: 219
- Joined: 06 Aug 2010, 13:12
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
I haven't given Duffy any thought until I read this thread... I have always hade Vardy captained... Duffy (v). Feels to risky.
- Vsz
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 2092
- Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:34
- Location: Spain
- FS Record: Won lots of cash leagues and was once, very briefly, top of TFF. Finished 15th too. Various top 5K and 10K FPL finishes
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Think I'm going for Duffy (C), Vardy (assuming I keep him on WC) (V).
-
- Kevin and Perry
- Posts: 15
- Joined: 26 Aug 2014, 08:07
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Step forward Fernando Llorente
-
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 1640
- Joined: 19 Jul 2015, 00:29
- FS Record: Reasonable
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Lukaku
-
- Treebeard
- Posts: 279
- Joined: 29 May 2016, 16:05
- FS Record: Never been outside the top 3
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Can't believe people are actually considering Duffy. I know he has the extra game but Brighton are on a terrible run at the moment and have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games.
Lukaku or Vardy for me.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lukaku or Vardy for me.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- thekitkatshuffler
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 4042
- Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:33
- Location: Hoppipolla
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
2 clean sheets in their last 10 and 3 in their last 12.johnjoe107 wrote: ↑11 Apr 2019, 19:19 Can't believe people are actually considering Duffy. I know he has the extra game but Brighton are on a terrible run at the moment and have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games.
Plus none of those 12 were at home against a Bournemouth side who are awful away from home (and currently on the beach) and Cardiff. Not to mention that Duffy has 5 goals, 2 assist and a crazy number of touches in the opposition box for a defender.
I haven't got him captained at the moment, but I'm certainly tempted.
- Pirlo's Beard
- FISO Jedi Knight
- Posts: 20556
- Joined: 21 Aug 2013, 17:48
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Yep, Brighton's whole gameplan basically revolves around finding the head of Duffy from set pieces.thekitkatshuffler wrote: ↑11 Apr 2019, 21:59 Not to mention that Duffy has 5 goals, 2 assist and a crazy number of touches in the opposition box for a defender.
Ireland's too, come to think of it.
- eastcentral1
- Dumbledore
- Posts: 7973
- Joined: 30 Jul 2007, 16:38
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Probably Son or Eriksen, depending on press conferences
- Drew_Peacock
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 1765
- Joined: 15 Sep 2006, 08:46
- FPL:
- Contact:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
I’m keeping Vardy with my WC in play specifically to captain him this week.
He swaps out for Deeney next week
He swaps out for Deeney next week
- ROCKFISHDG
- FISOhead
- Posts: 749
- Joined: 20 Jul 2009, 06:23
- Location: Long Beach CA USA
- FS Record: FPL Results (06/07~9,044) (07/08~68,533) (08/09~14,557) (09/10~8,120) (10/11~9,875) (11/12~17,404) (12/13~41,149) (13/14~342,190)(14/15~223,908) (15/16~435,446) (16/17~105,445) (17/18~2266~34,029) (18/19~367,582) (19/20~64,137)
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Knockaert (c) Vardy (vc)
- Plopsack
- Wideboy
- Posts: 94
- Joined: 26 Jun 2012, 21:06
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Shall I be brave enough and TC Duffy?
-
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 1432
- Joined: 28 Jun 2011, 02:11
- FPL:
-
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3049
- Joined: 28 Dec 2015, 12:14
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Son (c), Eriksen (vc) or reversed.
- Stevieste
- Dumbledore
- Posts: 9599
- Joined: 19 Aug 2017, 10:28
- FS Record: 24,360
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Ive come to the conclusion that not only will i be the only 1 to captain Niasse this week, but im prob the only one to have in him in there team also
I wonder why im losing ground in my mini league as well
I wonder why im losing ground in my mini league as well
- swadd1er
- Dumbledore
- Posts: 5828
- Joined: 28 Jul 2013, 16:37
- FPL:
- Contact:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Over to you Duffy
- Lucky
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3994
- Joined: 13 Sep 2006, 07:24
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
no clue!
But I follow the Duffy (c) bandwaggon, Lukaku (vc)
But I follow the Duffy (c) bandwaggon, Lukaku (vc)
- Smurphy Paw
- FISO Knight
- Posts: 14525
- Joined: 17 Aug 2006, 17:48
- FS Record: Mediocre, apparently
13/14: FPL 1792; FIFA 14 Top 700.
17/18: FPL 696th; loads of mini-League wins and side game promotions
18/19 1FC Köln 5AS Champions
#1 Spring Super League regular season 19/20 & 20/21 - FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Duffy/Son here
- Stemania
- FISO Jedi Knight
- Posts: 20448
- Joined: 27 Aug 2006, 11:54
- Location: On the Iron Throne of xG, the seat of The Crown Prince of the Stat Perverts. Or if not, in the STC!
- FS Record: Best: TFF 321st. FPL 129th. FFS Career HoF Peak 2nd (Live 1st). Ability since lost.
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
I don't love it, but I think it's Duffy here too (Son vc). Best of a bad bunch.
Fun tweet from @FPLEditor this morning:
Fun tweet from @FPLEditor this morning:
Duffy’s back-to-back gameweek combos this year:
8, 9, 3, 13, 16, 4, 5, 12, 13, 7, 2, 11, 8, 8, 14, 10, 3, 0, 5, 13, 8, 10, 11, 4, 3
If we say any score under 5 is a failure, this only occurred 28% of the time
While his average back-to-back gameweek score this year is 8pts
- blahblah
- FISO Viscount
- Posts: 108519
- Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:46
- Location: .. he thinks that he knows something which he doesn't, whereas I am quite concious of my ignorance.
- FPL:
-
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3227
- Joined: 17 May 2006, 00:27
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
100 points behind in mini league.
It's either Duffy or Erikson or Kun.
I really am torn. Erikson at home to HUD just shouts potential points (if Kane was about) or will he be more advanced with him not about.
It's either Duffy or Erikson or Kun.
I really am torn. Erikson at home to HUD just shouts potential points (if Kane was about) or will he be more advanced with him not about.
- eastcentral1
- Dumbledore
- Posts: 7973
- Joined: 30 Jul 2007, 16:38
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Yeah I'm surprised Eriksen so under the radar. Think I'll take a punt.
- Turd Ferguson
- FISOhead
- Posts: 943
- Joined: 16 Aug 2015, 03:32
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
I was on Son all week, but the attention to Duffy made me do some back of the napkin math.
Here are my scenarios with likelihoods, and expected points. The expected points roughly include clean sheet points, cards, and bonus points.
Son:
Starts, 1 goal: expected points = 8, 40%
Starts, multiple returns: xP = 16, 20%
Starts, blanks: xP = 2, 30%
Doesn't start: xP = 1, 10%
.4 * 8 + .2 * 16 + .3 * 2 + .1 * 1 = 7.1
For Duffy, both games are very similar, so I'm just going to double his expected points from one game. I give him a 36% chance of a clean sheet in each game and a 6% chance of a goal in each game (implying one goal every 17 game or so).
Duffy:
Starts, clean sheet: xP = 7, 33%
Starts, CS and goal: xP = 14, 3%
Starts, No CS: xP = 1, 61%
Starts, No CS and goal: xP = 8, 3%
.33 * 7 + .03 * 15 + .61 * 1 + .03 * 8 = 3.61 * 2 games = 7.22
In other words, Duffy just about shades it. Given the weakness of his opposition and the fact both games are at home, my odds for his clean sheets and goals might be underestimated.
Here are my scenarios with likelihoods, and expected points. The expected points roughly include clean sheet points, cards, and bonus points.
Son:
Starts, 1 goal: expected points = 8, 40%
Starts, multiple returns: xP = 16, 20%
Starts, blanks: xP = 2, 30%
Doesn't start: xP = 1, 10%
.4 * 8 + .2 * 16 + .3 * 2 + .1 * 1 = 7.1
For Duffy, both games are very similar, so I'm just going to double his expected points from one game. I give him a 36% chance of a clean sheet in each game and a 6% chance of a goal in each game (implying one goal every 17 game or so).
Duffy:
Starts, clean sheet: xP = 7, 33%
Starts, CS and goal: xP = 14, 3%
Starts, No CS: xP = 1, 61%
Starts, No CS and goal: xP = 8, 3%
.33 * 7 + .03 * 15 + .61 * 1 + .03 * 8 = 3.61 * 2 games = 7.22
In other words, Duffy just about shades it. Given the weakness of his opposition and the fact both games are at home, my odds for his clean sheets and goals might be underestimated.
- Turd Ferguson
- FISOhead
- Posts: 943
- Joined: 16 Aug 2015, 03:32
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
I've convinced myself. I can't quite believe it but I'm captaining a Brighton defender.
-
- FISOhead
- Posts: 822
- Joined: 02 Mar 2006, 19:32
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
100% Duffy TC
- Stemania
- FISO Jedi Knight
- Posts: 20448
- Joined: 27 Aug 2006, 11:54
- Location: On the Iron Throne of xG, the seat of The Crown Prince of the Stat Perverts. Or if not, in the STC!
- FS Record: Best: TFF 321st. FPL 129th. FFS Career HoF Peak 2nd (Live 1st). Ability since lost.
- FPL:
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Worth noting Duffy's record of 5 goals in 29 PL starts this season is significantly better than 1 in 17.
I can't believe it either, but it's a magnificent thing. I'm rooting for him to be the most captained!
I can't believe it either, but it's a magnificent thing. I'm rooting for him to be the most captained!
- Turd Ferguson
- FISOhead
- Posts: 943
- Joined: 16 Aug 2015, 03:32
Re: GW34 Captain Poll
Yeah, I'm not blown away by his xG numbers in recent weeks, but he does have 5 goals for the season. Set piece targets are tough to judge by xG. They go weeks without a good chance and then one day they get a free header from 6 yards out.
Begovic really struggled against Burnley's muscle in the box, so here's hoping for more of the same. The bookmakers have Duffy's odds of a goal this week at 20+%, and I think that's probably closer to accurate than my ~12%.
I'm actually pretty confident it's the right decision having thought it through. Good luck everyone.
View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts