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Vice captain points

Posted: 13 Jan 2019, 11:27
by Sutter Kane
Just checked on FPL statistic (anewpla) and I'm wondering what, if anything your VC points tells you about the number of premiums you have to select from - too many or too few. Also the points as a % of actual captain points must tell you something.

I know there was a count up of captain points this season to date: mine sat at 314 (VC 164) including this week: anyone suffering more than that? Now, with a low total captain score as a given:

If my VC points are near to this, am I right in saying a) it's OK cos I have owned the VC who's scored heavily anyway or b) I'm not picking correctly, I should be picking VC more even just on variance. However if my VC are a long way off the captain points am I right in saying a) I'm picking as well as I could, no problem or b) Big problem, VC not even performing either, so my total points for the week are going to be low as I likely didn't even own any big hitting premiums that week.

Is it more/less complicated than I'm making out - e.g. Does anyone garner huge success from just copying the FFS (or FISO) highest poll results each week?

If I can identify the reason that each season (I have been monitoring this for a few seasons now) my captains are failing due to my squad setup, then I can maybe do something to rectify e.g. just stick it on a poll leader, or keep it on Salah and reduce my number of premiums as they won't represent value, etc. Before anyone points it out, it is a post based on frustration, but that frustration has been boiling for a long time now... :lol:

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 13 Jan 2019, 19:21
by Zimmerman
So has your captain(s) scored 157 (doubled)?

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 13 Jan 2019, 19:26
by Zimmerman
My captain (coincidently) scored 157 and my vice a mere 117.

But I’m doing terribly. So even if I’ve got my captian picks right... it probably says more about my poor team.

So maybe that gives you some form of answer about your own situation. The fact your in a position whereby you have a VC outscoring your C, it’s not necessarily a negative.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 13 Jan 2019, 20:03
by Joccki_10
Captain: 166
Vice: 151

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 13 Jan 2019, 21:32
by Sutter Kane
Yes 157 doubled for me. I think that's pretty awful. Was just thinking that almost always picking Salah captain does allow other decisions to be made irrelevant of thinking about captain choice and more about value. There's so many variables to consider but when I look at a lot of the people around me (and in the top 10k), they are over 100 points ahead in terms of captains, which is well...quite annoying. Captaincy has a fair amount of volatility attached to it so perhaps reducing that is more advantageous for some people than others.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 13 Jan 2019, 22:37
by reds363
C 188
V 146

20 vs 35 over the last three weeks

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 00:00
by Chinese Whisperer
Comparing the difference between your total (C) points and the total points you could have earned through captaining your best scoring player each week is another method of assessing your ability for making the right captain choices 😉.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 07:43
by Zimmerman
That’s a tricky path to go down.
Effectively you are comparing your captain choice with 10 others. Realistically, I’m not going to captain Wan Bissaka.

Similarly, if I captian Aguero for a home game against someone but Maddison outscores him that’s not bad judgement (IMO).

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 07:46
by Zimmerman
Sutter - whilst you might not be happy with your captain score (you shouldn’t be if it’s the same mine 😂) it’s counterproductive to look at those ahead of you.

Are they ahead in the captain stakes because of inspired captain choices... or are they ahead because they are cavalier (and lucky)? How many are cavalier (and stupid)? It’s a self-fulfilling theory to look at the successful teams and retro-fit their decisions.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 11:33
by Bixer
Points scored by both so far:

Captains: 144
Vices: 133

Pretty close.

I've had 7 captain blanks so far this season (3 points or less), but 5 of those have come in the last 6 GWs...

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 12:09
by Stevieste
Whats the easiet way to find out your totals without going through week to week with my calculator :lol:

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 13:41
by MoSe
I agree with both Zimmerman comments

FPL Statistico is imho rather circuitous on the matter, calling/highligting same things in different ways
https://www.anewpla.net/fpl/report-test ... tatSection
I prefer to summarise my data this way
FPL 18-19 Captaincy - MoSe gw21 - Summary.gif
I didn't start bad, but got worse recently
my C added pts end to be generally bad so far, the worst posted here I reckon

at the bottom of the Captaincy box, FPL Statistico reports your C scores (doubled) for each GW
the blue ones (cold) should be when your VC outscored your C (?), but I think he messes it counting Doubled C vs non-doubled VC

My C vs VC totals are similar, but when you break them down, you see
>
FPL 18-19 Captaincy - MoSe gw21 - by GW.gif
     9 times my C outscored my VC, by +61p (almost 7p/gw)
     1 time my C did not play (Martial), and the VC got doubled (Auba 8p), those points are counted in the C total
   11 times my VC outscored the C, and I'd have gained +63p. But in 4 times I lost a lot (48p, 12p/gw)), the remaining 15p VC loss spread over 7gw (2p/gw)
so only 1 time in 5 I lost a lot by choosing the wrong C vs VC, the other times I got it right or lost a little

My highest scoring players every gw outscored my captain choices by 129p
8 times tho my best (C|VC) was also the highest scorer (4C, 4VC)
13 times my High outscored (C|VC), but 9 times they were defenders (or Gudmundsson), who as Zim said I'd have hardly captained
   in 5 gws I'd have gained 7+p by choosing the (improbable) highest, tallying 42p or 8.4p/gw
   in 8 gws I'd have gained 5-p, not that great difference, tallying 24p or 3p/gw

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 14:56
by The Royal BlueNose
This is some interesting data...

C: 254
VC: 132

So not far off double but I have Aguero to play tonight and I doubt he will outscore Salah's 11.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:00
by Football Hero
Sutter Kane wrote:
13 Jan 2019, 21:32
Yes 157 doubled for me. I think that's pretty awful. Was just thinking that almost always picking Salah captain does allow other decisions to be made irrelevant of thinking about captain choice and more about value. There's so many variables to consider but when I look at a lot of the people around me (and in the top 10k), they are over 100 points ahead in terms of captains, which is well...quite annoying. Captaincy has a fair amount of volatility attached to it so perhaps reducing that is more advantageous for some people than others.
This is the wrong way to look at it imo.

For example, if the top 10k do have 100 points more than your 157 points so far, then this means that they have scored 257/22 = 11.7 points per game with their captains, and this amount you can not possibly hope to get long term when the best player, (Salah), scores about 9ppg. Therefore they can only have this type of average through luck and variance, (which is always the case with the people at the top each season, they always run hot with their captains and normal players too).

To be honest, it seems like the best strategy at the moment is captaining Salah about 87% of the time, and then the likes of Kane/Auba/Aguero occasionally the other 13% of the time if Salah is away against the big 6. This is because his current ppg from the last season and a half is a good 1.5+ppg clear of the next best alternatives and only severe fixture-difficulty swings would give Salah a lower ppg than the second best options in any given week.

However this is only really clear now, early in the season Salah looked like he was dipping a bit and had perhaps over-achieved last season, so it's only in hindsight that this looks like the obvious strategy.

I think I read somewhere that we should be looking at around 8ppg long term from our captains, with the implication that we are captaining many 6.5ppg - 7.0ppg players in favourable fixtures each week over that long time period. During periods where there is a player like Salah about however, we should be able to do better than 8ppg over that particular sub-time frame.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:17
by Joccki_10
The Royal BlueNose wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 14:56
This is some interesting data...

C: 254
VC: 132
Averaging 11,55 points for captaincy is ridiculously good.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:30
by Sutter Kane
Football Hero wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:00
Sutter Kane wrote:
13 Jan 2019, 21:32
Yes 157 doubled for me. I think that's pretty awful.
This is the wrong way to look at it imo.

For example, if the top 10k do have 100 points more than your 157 points so far, then this means that they have scored 257/22 = 11.7 points per game with their captains, and this amount you can not possibly hope to get long term when the best player, (Salah), scores about 9ppg. Therefore they can only have this type of average through luck and variance, (which is always the case with the people at the top each season, they always run hot with their captains and normal players too).
It's 100 after doubling, not before. 100 points is an enormous deficit to try and make up - when you're captaining premiums with decent fixtures like we all do (pretty much) every week and people are beating you by around 2.3points doubled to 4.6 every week, that's not haphazardness, there's something in that, especially when you assess over multiple seasons. I'd like to know what that is, as I (as many do) captain players near or top of the captain polls every week. Unsure if I'm too fixated with fixture and not paying enough attention to form, or not sticking enough with Salah, or etc...

Joccki_10 wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:17
The Royal BlueNose wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 14:56
This is some interesting data...

C: 254
VC: 132
Averaging 11,55 points for captaincy is ridiculously good.
Must be 254 after captaining not before, surely.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:32
by MoSe
Joccki_10 wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:17
The Royal BlueNose wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 14:56
This is some interesting data...

C: 254
VC: 132
Averaging 11,55 points for captaincy is ridiculously good.
not sure if tongue in cheek, but of course the C: 254 FPL Statistico figure means that TRBN Captains scored 127p, doubled to 254

comparable to mine :mrgreen:

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:39
by MoSe
reds363 wrote:
13 Jan 2019, 22:37
C 188
V 146

20 vs 35 over the last three weeks
reds plz, update your FPL Button or remove it altogether, thx :)

remarkable 188 doubled (including GW22)

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:45
by Football Hero
Miss-post due to messing up the quotes. :D

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:46
by Football Hero
Sutter Kane wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:30
Football Hero wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:00
Sutter Kane wrote:
13 Jan 2019, 21:32
Yes 157 doubled for me. I think that's pretty awful.
This is the wrong way to look at it imo.

For example, if the top 10k do have 100 points more than your 157 points so far, then this means that they have scored 257/22 = 11.7 points per game with their captains, and this amount you can not possibly hope to get long term when the best player, (Salah), scores about 9ppg. Therefore they can only have this type of average through luck and variance, (which is always the case with the people at the top each season, they always run hot with their captains and normal players too).
It's 100 after doubling, not before. 100 points is an enormous deficit to try and make up - when you're captaining premiums with decent fixtures like we all do (pretty much) every week and people are beating you by around 2.3points doubled to 4.6 every week, that's not haphazardness, there's something in that, especially when you assess over multiple seasons. I'd like to know what that is, as I (as many do) captain players near or top of the captain polls every week. Unsure if I'm too fixated with fixture and not paying enough attention to form, or not sticking enough with Salah, or etc...

No there's not. Check what all of these managers in the top 10k now, are getting in subsequent seasons and you will see that they will have long stretches of captaining good players that end up only giving them 6ppg across that period to balance the long term averages out. There is nothing these particular managers can do to outperform the long term averages of the fpl players that they are captaining, it just takes ages for things to even out, like maybe 500 gameweeks or so, not exactly sure but it will be a lot for things to even out so that mostly skill edge discriminates between points totals and the luck element is mostly eliminated.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 15:49
by MoSe
Sutter Kane wrote:
13 Jan 2019, 21:32
Yes 157 doubled for me. I think that's pretty awful.
...when I look at a lot of the people around me (and in the top 10k), they are over 100 points ahead in terms of captains, which is well...quite annoying.
excuse me, was that just an "eye assessment" by "random" sampling, or did you find some consolidated season Captaincy figures for top 10k?

FFFix has it for single GW, not season
FPL Statistico shows it for single teams, not top 10 (afaik)
couldn't find Season Captaincy stats in FPLD either...

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 17:21
by Sutter Kane
It was through everyone I seem to check upon! I am scavenging to find lower, unless one is captaining the likes of Rondon or playing a game with constraints (such as the want to enjoy the game which is a rank killer I'll tell you). Ruth also did a thread (or Dod) and some of the scores there were very high, much higher than mine (Ruth will confirm as his was similar to mine). I'm not saying 157 is below average but then given 80% of FPL are either not even playing any more or spend 5 minutes on a Friday checking their teams, the average is, well pointless. I can't survey everyone so I came to the conclusion based on a smallish sample of others around my rank. And nothing so far is really making me think I'm doing well from captains. If it was the one thing that could make a huge difference to rank each season, wouldn't anyone want to try and see if there was a way to gain say 30-100 points more? Unless FH is right and it's all just variance that takes too long to stabilise. To be honest, even if 157 was above average for top 10k, I'd still be 'interested' to know what others have done to record their 400 odd scores. Yes there are plenty on fiso, just can't remember who they are now! (do they use polls, just pretty much leave it on Salah (because of his underlying stats) except for huge opportunities elsewhere or if he's playing top6, rely solely on the eye test, or something else. And does it work most seasons because what I'm doing fails most seasons?

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 21:24
by Spreadsheet
Interesting food for thought. Mine currently stands at (including this GW22 as I am spent before tonight's game):

C: 202 doubled to 404
V: 116

Entirely down to who I have in my team each week (i.e. transfers made) but 20 mins furtling has told me that I've managed to pick the right way around between my C and V in 16 out of 22 weeks (73%).

But, if extended to the top scorer in my team each GW, then I have picked the right C only 8/22 weeks (36%). This extends to 10/22 weeks (46%) if I had at least identified my top scorer in the GW as either C or V. However, as Zimmerman said, of the other 14 weeks I didn't get the C right, there are many weeks where a slightly unfancied player, like a GK, defender or Snodgrass, outscored my C and VC, so this might be more par for the course and it may not be more optimal to try too hard to predict when the random players shine (certainly, picking the right C almost three quarters of the time from the premium players appears to suggest a stronger strategy?).

Not really sure what this data is telling me: whether the above is good/bad, whether I have just been lucky and a downturn is imminent, whether I have been better at picking the right Cs from a poorer squad/transfers, or actually whether the stats above are poor in comparison to other players - I am not aware of any baseline analysis already done (first season on this side of the forum) on past winners/high performers.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 14 Jan 2019, 21:59
by The Royal BlueNose
Joccki_10 wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:17
The Royal BlueNose wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 14:56
This is some interesting data...

C: 254
VC: 132
Averaging 11,55 points for captaincy is ridiculously good.
Ignore me - I got a bit too excited and didn't check that was the case :oops: :oops: :oops: :oops:

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 15 Jan 2019, 01:12
by reds363
MoSe wrote:
14 Jan 2019, 15:39
reds plz, update your FPL Button or remove it altogether, thx :)

remarkable 188 doubled (including GW22)
Done

Mostly helped by an 8-week run (GW10-17) where I hit 91 points of a squad-max 95

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 15 Jan 2019, 16:25
by Sutter Kane
There's a couple of monster captain scores just there, 188 and 202.

Been to check some of the scores of managers on FFS top 10 as those guys won't take any risks with their captaincy but at the same time aren't superhuman, some perhaps go with poll results??
Total doubled captain score followed by current rank in brackets:
Grant Barclay 348 (41482), Matthew Jones 320 (5863), Marlen Rattiner 312 (2796), Owen Walker 344 (175991), Richard Clarke 314 (40466), Paul Gee 374 (55549), Lester Cheng 294 (412430), Jay Egersdorff 294 (359606), Ville Ronke 376 (8386). Also, our own consistent Stemania 408 (614!) and FFSs 'eratic' Mark Sutherns 404 (6294).

Not sure whether there's anything really to learn and that FH may be correct. I do find it very tough to reconcile a 90 point deficit in such a short span as 22 gameweeks though - that's basically a season definer that one can't really do a lot about which is a bit frustrating? What I would say is that anything around 300 looks like pants as I suspected and perhaps 350ish is the average. (8ppg)

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 15 Jan 2019, 16:57
by Joccki_10
My 332 looks pretty average compared to those although I really feel I’ve done a bad job there. Add 50 - yes, that’s a lot - and I’m in the top 100. 408 from Stemania is amazing though.

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 15 Jan 2019, 18:00
by Pirlo's Beard
Joccki_10 wrote:
15 Jan 2019, 16:57
408 from Stemania and Pirlo's Beard is amazing though.
Fixed that for you. :wink:

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 15 Jan 2019, 18:06
by Joccki_10
Pirlo's Beard wrote:
15 Jan 2019, 18:00
Joccki_10 wrote:
15 Jan 2019, 16:57
408 from Stemania and Pirlo's Beard is amazing though.
Fixed that for you. :wink:
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Re: Vice captain points

Posted: 16 Jan 2019, 04:45
by MoSe
Hmmm....
If you picked a Player from Miami FC in your Fantasy American Soccer, would he be your
Miami Vice Captain