The Rounded Keeper - FPL Pub Talk & Matchday Banter 2018-19

[Pirlo's Beard]

Please can you show your workings?

Please can you all keep quoting each other until we all fall into an endless quotes vortex from which there is no escape.

[Tacalabala]

Please can you show your workings?

Gladly.

If we assume this 0.43 xG comes from 0.15, 0.15 and 0.13, then the likelihood that he had scored all of these chances is 0.15*0.15*0.13=0.0029=0.29%. You can have this 0.43 broken to any possible three figures and the result is about the same anyway.

What was the xG for Aguero's, Hazards, Salah's and Firmino's hattricks this season?

[Finisher1]

Please can you show your workings?

Gladly.

If we assume this 0.43 xG comes from 0.15, 0.15 and 0.13, then the likelihood that he had scored all of these chances is 0.15*0.15*0.13=0.0029=0.29%. You can have this 0.43 broken to any possible three figures and the result is about the same anyway.

What was the xG for Aguero's, Hazards, Salah's and Firmino's hattricks this season?

I already offered you a link, didn't I? Go and check it out if you are that interested.

[hancockjr]

Thanks.

[Tall Paul]

Please can you show your workings?

Gladly.

If we assume this 0.43 xG comes from 0.15, 0.15 and 0.13, then the likelihood that he had scored all of these chances is 0.15*0.15*0.13=0.0029=0.29%. You can have this 0.43 broken to any possible three figures and the result is about the same anyway.

So three times higher than you originally stated?

[hayesag]

Please can you show your workings?

Gladly.

If we assume this 0.43 xG comes from 0.15, 0.15 and 0.13, then the likelihood that he had scored all of these chances is 0.15*0.15*0.13=0.0029=0.29%. You can have this 0.43 broken to any possible three figures and the result is about the same anyway.

What was the xG for Aguero's, Hazards, Salah's and Firmino's hattricks this season?

Please take a pew, grab a cuppa and RELAX whilst finisher checks google for your answer

[Finisher1]

Please can you show your workings?

Gladly.

If we assume this 0.43 xG comes from 0.15, 0.15 and 0.13, then the likelihood that he had scored all of these chances is 0.15*0.15*0.13=0.0029=0.29%. You can have this 0.43 broken to any possible three figures and the result is about the same anyway.

So three times higher than you originally stated?

I'm quite sure the best chance was more than 0.15 xG which decreases the combined result.

[Gambit]

Not that they needed confirming, but today showed two things quite clearly:

DDG is by far the best keeper in the world
Rashford is unquestionably the number one striker under OGS

Lukaku so poor when he came on, lazy, static, poor anticipation, more time pointing than running for the ball, no way is he pushing Rashford from the team.

[Tacalabala]

Aguero vs Hud 3 goals 1.58
Hazard vs Car 3 goals 1.37
Salah vs Bou 3 goals 1.54
Firmino vs Ars 3 goals 1.82

So roughly this lot were putting away 0.5 xG chances. Joccki only said could, he didn't present it as a should, which is what you appear to be alluding to.

To be honest, I'd need to see what a typical 0.15 chance and a 0.5 chance looks like to get a feel for it. Is the xG increased if the chance is put away?

[RomynPG]

I hope we don't all have to become stats experts and have to be willing to produce paperwork for every comment we make in threads - especially this one.

Pogba could have scored a hat-trick...

Response option 1: Had some chances ... etc ... whatever
Response option 2: Well actually if you look at the xyz ...etc...yawn

Now if someone started a thread "Pogba was robbed of a hat-trick today" then go nuts

[Bobby Fetta]

This is, frankly, a silly argument.

However, it intrigued me so I looked on the FFS members area, where they do break down the xG for each shot. First off, Pogba's xG for Opta was only 0.32, so there is a difference there before we even start the calculation. Setting that aside, Pogba's best three chances were 0.07, 0.09 and 0.06. Multiplying them together gives 0.04%.

But I'm not convinced about the logic of disregarding the other three shots completely (0.04, 0.04 and 0.03). I think you need to sum up the probabilities of any combination of those six shots giving three goals. I've exhausted my interest in this but I would say a guess of 0.1% is fairly good.

But I fully support the right of anyone to say he could have had a hattrick without checking xG stats, particulalry in this live matchday thread.

[Finisher1]

This is, frankly, a silly argument.

However, it intrigued me so I looked on the FFS members area, where they do break down the xG for each shot. First off, Pogba's xG for Opta was only 0.32, so there is a difference there before we even start the calculation. Setting that aside, Pogba's best three chances were 0.07, 0.09 and 0.06. Multiplying them together gives 0.04%.

But I'm not convinced about the logic of disregarding the other three shots completely (0.04, 0.04 and 0.03). I think you need to sum up the probabilities of any combination of those six shots giving three goals. I've exhausted my interest in this but I would say a guess of 0.1% is fairly good.

But I fully support the right of anyone to say he could have had a hattrick without checking xG stats, particulalry in this live matchday thread.

Spot on.

[Joccki_10]

I hope we don't all have to become stats experts and have to be willing to produce paperwork for every comment we make in threads - especially this one.

With Finisher1 around we apparently do.

[Finisher1]

I hope we don't all have to become stats experts and have to be willing to produce paperwork for every comment we make in threads - especially this one.

With Finisher1 around we apparently do.

It wasn't me who started to talk about xG, it was Tacalabala. I simply said Pogba was very unlikely to score a hattrick from the chances he got today, that's all really.

[Stevieste]

Good day for my team today, im now on 57 points and have Sane and My captain Sterling to go tomorrow

Almost snap. 56 with Sane and captain Aguero.

Fingers crossed man city have a big win then and our players do the business

[Smurphy Paw]

I’m not sure that this was a maths problem, as much as it was about different uses and understandings of common English phrases. Until Taca chipped in about xG (& I’m not convinced he wanted to know the answer)

[No Way Jose]

Understanding of English phrases or basic social skills?

[Archy]

It’s funny popping on here and seeing this...

I’d have thought the main post-match talking points from today would be:

1. Rashford now seemingly nailed as Man U’s No 1 striker. At a budget of just 7.3m (7.4m after tonight), that has a massive impact on our squads .... and gives shit loads of money to spend elsewhere if going with him as your main striker (which I am doing)

2. Likely injury to Kane, coming at a time when he looked near-essential for the home game triple run coming up. If he is out that’ll increase further the case for Rashford and pumping the money saved into midfield/defence.

[Finisher1]

2. Likely injury to Kane, coming at a time when he looked near-essential for the home game triple run coming up.

Pochettino's comment:

"It was a clear foul on Harry Kane, a big hit, Mike Dean said he didn't see it. Kane twisted his ankle and we hope that it is not a big issue."

Source: https://twitter.com/bendinnery


So based on this comment, it sounds like he only misses Fulham match at most, right? In which case just bench him for GW23.

[Archy]

Twitter also shows videos of him slowly hobbling off the field looking pretty crocked!

The panelists after the game seemed pretty convinced it was a likely ligament injury in the same ankle he was out with before

Guess we’ll find out more soon.

[Finisher1]

Twitter also shows videos of him slowly hobbling off the field looking pretty crocked!

The panelists after the game seemed pretty convinced it was an injury

Well, GW24 is on Jan 30th, so even if it's a real injury he has over two weeks to recover and just miss one gameweek.

[Smurphy Paw]

I just brought him in for a hit and captained his two point showing.
I have already made this week’s switch from Alonso (dropping) to Shaw (rising).
Harry, don’t do this to me!

[Oxford NZ]

If Kane is injured it is time for me to WC. I have him now in a 4-5-1 as my sole forward. This was done to accommodate Salah before his price rise and Snodgrass's fall.
Not seen the match as getting ready for a big concrete pour, but the reports on here seem gloomy.

[Finisher1]

Why don't you just take some hits rather than playing wildcard?

[Oxford NZ]

I am punch drunk on hits so far this season. -4 to do Aubameyang and Snodgrass to Salah and X Siva all ready done. Kane to Aguero would be a -8 and having the cash to upgrade X Silva to a playing reserve would be good for a -12
I all ready want to change Fabianski, Laporte, Richarlison and down grade Robertson to TAA, Pereyra was due to go in a couple of weeks so that could be done now as well. It would be great to wait until more information on the blanks and doubles is available but the cost of a sub optimal team until then could hurt. I could loose interest completely and then the team would be dead.

[Finisher1]

Those transfers are quite pointless in my opinion. Fabianski, Laporte, Richarlison, Pereyra and Robertson are great picks for the upcoming gameweeks and you don't need to upgrade X Silva to a playing reserve, just bench him because your starting XI is very good. You will need wildcard more when blanks and double gameweeks are coming up.

[Oxford NZ]

If I need to replace Kane then my squad is even more out of balance than before so a WC or 2 more hits are required to put things straight. Kane to Aguero and upgrade X Silva as a minimum. If I play the WC then I will down grade Robertson to TAA for the cash, change Laporte to Shaw, upgrade Fab to Alisson and loose Richarlison because I have an urge to do him in.
Thanks for the advice Finisher, just out of curiosity why do you not have a link to your team with the FPL button in FISO? Jut curious.

[Finisher1]

Your team is not out of balance if you replace Kane. Those transfers don't improve your team really, they are just sideways moves. Laporte for example has great fixtures and a possible DGW25 coming up, he is a great pick for the upcoming gameweeks. But if you want to do those changes, then just take two or three more hits rather than playing wildcard.

[Oxford NZ]

I agree on the Laporte thing but my main concern is a non playing forward and no bench cover, too much money invested in defence and if I am going to take hits to sort out the problems the loss in OR may be to high for my limited attention span to comprehend leading to apathy.
I need Blah to whip me into shape but he has hardware problems to sort, his laptop is bust and his hand held is not what it once was.

[Joccki_10]

Just watched the highlights of Leicester - Southampton. Isn’t that second goal an own goal by Schmeichel?