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The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Stemania » 17 Aug 2018, 00:15

He he, well yes 100% is perhaps over-egging it, but wildcards are arguably the largest contributor to the error factor.

There's obviously always little things like FPL updating their NT numbers discretely not continuously etc, and the difficulty of recording exact price-change NT reset totals precisely. But it would be miles easier to more accurately quantify the precise nuances for very low and very high ownership players, or characterise how the thresholds change as the year progresses, etc, if precise NTI/NTO price-change-contributing numbers were known. :D





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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by seagulluk » 17 Aug 2018, 08:05

Bilva Up

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by swadd1er » 17 Aug 2018, 16:23

does anyone think Hudson Odoi will drop in price anytime soon?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Weisenwolf » 17 Aug 2018, 17:51

swadd1er wrote:
17 Aug 2018, 16:23
does anyone think Hudson Odoi will drop in price anytime soon?
I doubt it; he has just over 2% ownership probably a mix of FISO players and Chelsea fans. He's got no real competition at that price and those who are upgrading will have already sold him to jump on the likes of Neves and so on. I can see him languishing on the bench until
wildcarded out which of course won't change his price at all. There are no guarantees but he remains an enabler even if he doesn't play and would cost to make a meaningful change.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by swadd1er » 17 Aug 2018, 19:07

Weisenwolf wrote:
17 Aug 2018, 17:51
swadd1er wrote:
17 Aug 2018, 16:23
does anyone think Hudson Odoi will drop in price anytime soon?
I doubt it; he has just over 2% ownership probably a mix of FISO players and Chelsea fans. He's got no real competition at that price and those who are upgrading will have already sold him to jump on the likes of Neves and so on. I can see him languishing on the bench until
wildcarded out which of course won't change his price at all. There are no guarantees but he remains an enabler even if he doesn't play and would cost to make a meaningful change.
His target on FPL statistics is -83.8 and dropping so i’m slightly concerned that it happens and I miss it and end up with a 4.4m sell pm value.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Weisenwolf » 18 Aug 2018, 11:31

swadd1er wrote:
17 Aug 2018, 19:07
Weisenwolf wrote:
17 Aug 2018, 17:51
swadd1er wrote:
17 Aug 2018, 16:23
does anyone think Hudson Odoi will drop in price anytime soon?
I doubt it; he has just over 2% ownership probably a mix of FISO players and Chelsea fans. He's got no real competition at that price and those who are upgrading will have already sold him to jump on the likes of Neves and so on. I can see him languishing on the bench until
wildcarded out which of course won't change his price at all. There are no guarantees but he remains an enabler even if he doesn't play and would cost to make a meaningful change.
His target on FPL statistics is -83.8 and dropping so i’m slightly concerned that it happens and I miss it and end up with a 4.4m sell pm value.
Well he can't drop now until Saturday night/Sunday morning

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by blahblah » 18 Aug 2018, 12:24

Stemania wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 21:49
FPLS' rough estimates are pretty widely accepted (whatever they are), so 70k NTIs for the first rise, 140k for the 2nd, 210k for the third. As are the approximate 10% of ownership NTO for the first drop etc (for reasonably well owned players anyway).

However, the rise thresholds tend to vary (get lower) as the season progresses and there are fewer active players. The second post in this thread is worth a read.
Strictly speaking they rise as Active Managers join late, and then tails off as Managers cease to be "Active".

The WC's may include these new managers tinkering before their Squad is set? (I assume they have free transfers before their 1st GW is set.)

Also if there are more managers this season than last then the Thresholds will be different to last season....

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by adrock » 19 Aug 2018, 22:09

Sooooo Wilson has risen 0.1m early this evening. what?? A price change at some point between 7pm and 10pm. Is this a new thing??

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by No Way Jose » 19 Aug 2018, 22:57

adrock wrote:
19 Aug 2018, 22:09
Sooooo Wilson has risen 0.1m early this evening. what?? A price change at some point between 7pm and 10pm. Is this a new thing??
It happened yesterday

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by adrock » 20 Aug 2018, 09:02

No Way Jose wrote:
19 Aug 2018, 22:57
adrock wrote:
19 Aug 2018, 22:09
Sooooo Wilson has risen 0.1m early this evening. what?? A price change at some point between 7pm and 10pm. Is this a new thing??
It happened yesterday
as in the very early hours of the morning? i'm confused as i did some potential transfers at 7pm (i have a screen grab on my phone of them at 7:03pm) and then went to make them at around 10pm and couldn't because wilson was 6.1. so had i just not refreshed the page or something?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by MoSe » 20 Aug 2018, 09:18

probably, refresh and cached data

I can confirm I had bought him Sat evening and on Sun morning I found he had risen
CTC Price Changes tab http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/price-changes/
which records timestamp too (unline FPLS or FFFix)
has it at 2am my time (= 1am UK) just as any other
NameEventChange Date
Callum WilsonPrice rise from 6.0 to 6.12018-08-19, 02:00

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by adrock » 20 Aug 2018, 09:31

ok cool, thanks for the clarification fellas. was worried fpl had introduced a new price rise rule.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by No Way Jose » 20 Aug 2018, 09:37

No worries adrock

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Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by blahblah » 24 Aug 2018, 22:48

Last season was bad, but this is looking even crazier:

Vardy looked interested, so I was interested, yet he could well drop tonight presumably due to the 1 Match Ban;

Milo has already dropped, but I would argue that he was too expensive at 6.5m;

All the starting 4.5 Mids seem to have dropped, or about to.

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by blahblah » 24 Aug 2018, 22:55

Oh and how the freaking freak can be Ings about to rise, while Raul (Jimenez) is on -34%?

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by ajcairns » 24 Aug 2018, 22:56

Milo attracted a lot pre season solely due to last years score. Once they realised he wasn’t a proper goal machine they jumped ship.

I think the price changes like this will calm down a bit from here on.

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by No Way Jose » 24 Aug 2018, 22:59

Lots of drops but that's normal for this time of year isn't it? Haven't seen any price changes that don't make sense. And ings vs Jimenez will largely be due to fixtures and the fact his goal was more recent

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by blahblah » 24 Aug 2018, 23:08

Lots yes, but it is the quality\distribution etc and people have been moaning. Sociuuuulll Mediaaaaarrrrr (in my bestest TOWIE accent, which I can do, lol) etc have been blamed but I do think it has got worse\faster this season.

re Milo: he would have to be under 6m to be of interest - and I was starting hi last season; and yes the 4,5m Mids is a bit of a dead zone, atm. But then I think the 4.5-6m Def's are too.

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by Chinese Whisperer » 24 Aug 2018, 23:13

ajcairns wrote:
24 Aug 2018, 22:56
Milo attracted a lot pre season solely due to last years score. Once they realised he wasn’t a proper goal machine they jumped ship.
Palace get quite a few penalties though and Milo smashes them in.

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by blahblah » 24 Aug 2018, 23:28

Chinese Whisperer wrote:
24 Aug 2018, 23:13
ajcairns wrote:
24 Aug 2018, 22:56
Milo attracted a lot pre season solely due to last years score. Once they realised he wasn’t a proper goal machine they jumped ship.
Palace get quite a few penalties though and Milo smashes them in.
got :wink:

A new record for merging?

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by fred1266 » 25 Aug 2018, 02:05

blahblah wrote:
24 Aug 2018, 22:48
Last season was bad, but this is looking even crazier:

Vardy looked interested, so I was interested, yet he could well drop tonight presumably due to the 1 Match Ban;

Milo has already dropped, but I would argue that he was too expensive at 6.5m;

All the starting 4.5 Mids seem to have dropped, or about to.
no think it 3 match for Vardy

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Moaning Thread 18/19

Post by blahblah » 25 Aug 2018, 02:38

So he could be even cheaper 8-)

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by Ruth_NZ » 25 Aug 2018, 02:42

Chinese Whisperer wrote:Palace get quite a few penalties though and Milo smashes them in.

They did last season. It's just as likely that they get very few this season. It's quite a random and unpredictable thing.

If anyone thinks - "Zaha, twisting and turning in the box = lots of penalties, it isn't random!" - should look at how many penalties Chelsea, with Hazard twisting and turning in the box, got last season. :wink:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Moaning Thread 18/19

Post by blahblah » 25 Aug 2018, 02:49

So Zaha is better than Eden :idea:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Moaning Thread 18/19

Post by Ruth_NZ » 25 Aug 2018, 03:10

blahblah wrote: So Zaha is better than Eden. :idea:

According to Sky Sports, the most-fouled players over 3 seasons between 2014/15 and 2015/17 were Hazard (258), Zaha (210), Mané (195), Sterling (194). Don't know what last season's numbers were but very few players in the world get fouled as much as Hazard. :lol:

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Re: Pice Changes Moaning Thread

Post by ajcairns » 25 Aug 2018, 07:41

Chinese Whisperer wrote:
24 Aug 2018, 23:13
ajcairns wrote:
24 Aug 2018, 22:56
Milo attracted a lot pre season solely due to last years score. Once they realised he wasn’t a proper goal machine they jumped ship.
Palace get quite a few penalties though and Milo smashes them in.
Yes they do (might). But so far the masses that picked milo because of his relatively big score last year are moving on already. Milo to Richarlison must have been a popular move.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Moaning Thread 18/19

Post by sparx14 » 26 Aug 2018, 12:02

What will happen to richarlison price if loads of people ship him out whilst he is on red card?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Moaning Thread 18/19

Post by Ruth_NZ » 26 Aug 2018, 12:11

sparx14 wrote: What will happen to Richarlison price if loads of people ship him out whilst he is on red card?

It will fall, and it's not really an if. He''ll probably be 6.6m by the time he returns, meaning that you'd lose nothing in terms of TV by selling him. Whether to do so is a different matter; possibly it depends on how useful your bench can be for the next couple of weeks.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Moaning Thread 18/19

Post by Weisenwolf » 26 Aug 2018, 12:48

He's at -40 but he's likely to be in free fall after today's games

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Are players protected from dropping below 4.0m this season?

Post by Finisher1 » 27 Aug 2018, 07:27

Let's take a look at Jan Bednarek from Southampton.

Transfers in: 8 431
Transfers out: 72 274
NTO: -63 842

Ownership at this moment: 4.0%
Total managers at this moment: 5 366 192
Ownership at this moment: 214 648 managers
Initial ownership: 278 490 managers

NTO relative to ownership: 29.7%
NTO relative to initial ownership: 22.9%

I'm happy to be corrected if someone notices some inconsistencies in my calculations.

Anyway, the bottom line here is that Bednarek should have dropped ages ago, right? Even if wildcard transfers are not counted, his relative NTO should have exceeded 10% threshold ages ago?

Is there a new rule that players are protected from dropping below 4.0m?

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