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The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

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The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Query Thread

Post by Mav3rick » 22 Jul 2018, 16:52

Crack The Code

Roll of honour
FISO has spent over 10 years working to understand price rises in FPL. The information in this topic has been built and maintained by a great many users during FISO's long and proud history. This is the list of members who have contributed significantly over the years to what we know about price changes today.

Any missing credits should be notified to the moderator team, who will add the names.

In alphabetical order, we thank the efforts of:

Benj987, Black_Horse, dandg, diamondplus, jamgillespie, ferg, Flyman, garypallister, Glasgowlatic, JMW123, lucanjerry, ludermor, malefice, MrSmedley, nash0819, organdonor47, redrum, reds363, reg, Rob, RomynPG, slarty, squealy, Stuboy, Tort, viddleodge, whuuf, Wyld.

Special credit goes to diamondplus, lucanjerry, organdonor47, Rob, slarty who have made particularly large contribuitions over the years.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Mav3rick » 22 Jul 2018, 16:59

Information about the FPL Price Change Algorithm

Note that this guide borrows from the excellent work done by reds363 in the 2010/11 season. I am updating as best I can with what we believe to be true in 2018. If you spot a discrepancy or inaccuracy, report it by posting below and I'll update this post.

As you may be aware already, the prices of players in FPL can vary throughout the season. Players can rise or drop in price dependent on the number of managers buying or selling a particular player. When a player is transferred in by a lot of managers, then his price may rise, and similarly if a player is transferred out by a lot of managers then his price may drop.

FPL closely guard the exact algorithm that decides if and when players rise or drop in price, but over the years many of the rules have been reverse engineered and a list of what we believe to be true currently is shown below. I say what "we believe to be true" since FPL have never confirmed or denied any of these assumptions, and FPL Towers would be free to add or remove rules at any time.

The basic rules - price changes

Q: How often do players change in price?
A: Players can change in price once per day (by 0.1m) either rising or falling by that amount. Players cannot rise or fall more than once in a single day. Additionally, a player can only rise (or fall) 3 times in a given gameweek.

Q: At what time do players change in price?
A: There's no set time, although usually price changes all happen in one go at 01:00am GMT (02:00am BST). However, this is not a hard and fast rule and sometimes price changes have occured later than this time. You should assume price changes could occur in a window between 00.30am and 03.30am GMT.

Q: What causes a player to rise in price?
A: The simple answer is transfers in cause a player to increase in price, however the precise answer is a little more nuanced that that. A player will rise in price when his "Net Transfers In (NTI)" (that is his total transfers in minus his transfers out) hits a certain threshold.

The threshold can change through the season depending on the number of active managers in FPL, and FPL themselves may tweak the number to make price changes more or less aggressive. This season, the threshold started at around 55,000, while last season (2016/17) the NTI threshold varied through the season from around 45,000 to 21,500. That means that once a player's ownership has grown by the threshold (let's say 55,000) then he will rise in price by 0.1m (there is more to the precise answer than that, please see the advanced rules section below for details if you are interested).

Q: What causes a player to drop in price?
This is similar to rises, except that for a price drop to occur a threshold of "Net Transfers Out (NTO)" (that is his total transfers out minus his transfers in) must be breached. The exact level of the NTO threshold for any given player is the lower number of either:

1) The negative of the NTI threshold value (for players who have already risen in price during the season)
2) OR 10% of their ownership (for players who are at or below their season starting price)

The key difference between rises and drops is that the price rise threshold is the same for all players while the number of transfers required to affect a price drop is different for each player. We also believe that there are differences in how multiple price drops or multiple price rises within a single GW work (please see the advanced rules section for details on that).

The basic rules - flags & price protection

Q: Can flagged players drop in price?
Yes!! When a player is flagged in FPL (either red, orange or yellow) then they can still change in price. A flagged player is not protected from price drops, however the NTO threshold does increase under certain circumstances. That means that a flagged player may require more NTOs to effect a drop, but that they can still drop!

The exact rules in this area are not 100% known, but to the best of our current knowledge the following is true;
  • A player with a red flag will have roughly between 2x and 3x his usual NTI/NTO target. This exact value of the multiplier can vary for individual players and circumstances, but the thing we're quite certain of is that a red flag does increase the required threshold.
  • Red flags (injury) - a popular (i.e. well owned) player red-flagged due to injury could have as much as a 3x multiplier on his usual NTO/NTI target. For lesser owned players, we think this reduces to around 2x the NTI/NTO threshold. Very low ownership players have a threshold around 2.5x.
  • Red flags (suspension) - a player red-flagged with a suspension appears to have a multiplier somewhere between 2x and 2.5x his usual NTI/NTO target. Note that this could be less than the multiplier for an injured player.
  • Orange and yellow flags do not, we think, alter the NTI/NTO threshold. In past seasons there did used to be a multiplier on orange or yellow flags, but we think this no longer applies and therefore NTO/NTI targets for yellow or orange flagged players are the same as for unflagged players.
Q: Can flagged players still rise in price?
In theory, yes. The NTI threshold for a price rise is not believed to be affected by a flag. However in practice, the behaviour of FPL managers is such that flagged players are rarely in Net Transfer In territory so the theory is rarely tested.

Q: Are players that have been unflagged protected from price changes?
This depends on the nature of the unflagging.
Red (for more than 2 days) => Clear: A player will enjoy 8 days of price protection and cannot rise or fall in price during this window.
Yellow => Clear: There is no price change protection.
Orange => Clear: There is no price change protection.
Red => Orange/Yellow => Clear: There is no price change protection.

CtC will show you when a player was unflagged, and how long their protection window (if applicable) lasts for.

Q: Are newly transferred players price protected?
If a player is newly added to FPL (perhaps he joined in the January transfer window for example) then he would be price protected for 8 days. If he has just transferred between clubs (and he already existed in FPL) then he would not be price protected.

The advanced rules - price changes

Q: Are the NTI/NTO thresholds constant?
FPL may change the thresholds at any time, but we generally believe that the threshold is related to the number of active managers in the game. Since the number of active managers decreases during the season, then the NTI/NTO thresholds may change. Price change sites keeps track of this for you, however, so you don't have to adjust for this yourself.

Q: When calculating price changes, do wildcard transfers count?
No. This is one of the reasons that price change websites are a guide rather than a definitive resource for price rises - not all transfers in are equal (in terms of contributing to price rises) and the data visible to price change sites does not allow us to determine which transfers do contribute to the NTI/NTO threshold.

The main issue is Wildcard transfers in/out, which are thought not to count toward the NTI/NTO threshold, are not published by FPL. When we talk of the NTI threshold, we mean net transfers in excluding wildcards. The assessment of how close a player is to a rise or drop therefore requires a price change site to make an estimate of the ratio of the two types of transfer accrued by any given player.

Q: If a player is way over their NTI threshold and changes in price, what happens to all the extra transfers?
This is probably best illustrated with an example. So, lets assume that a player requires 55,000 NTI to achieve a price rise. Let's also assume that he receives 40,000 NTI every day. By the end of day 2, our player has received 80,000 NTI and he therefore qualifies for a price rise of 0.1.

At this point, because his price changed, then his current NTI number is reset to 0 and so the extra 25,000 NTI that our player had are, in effect, lost and will not contribute at all to his next potential price rise.

Q: If a player has risen once this gameweek, how many transfers are required for him to rise a second or third time in the same GW?
FPL apply what we call multipliers in this situation. So a player may require 55,000 NTI for his first rise, but that number will multiply to 2x the value (so 110k ADDITIONAL transfers) for each of the second and third rises.

Q: Do multipliers apply to drops?
We don't believe so. Remember that a player will drop when his NTO hits the lowest of

1) The negative of the NTI threshold value (for players who have already risen in price during the season)
2) OR 10% of their ownership (for players who are at or below their season starting price)

The critical difference between rises and drops appears to be that there is no multiplier applied to price drops. In practical terms, this means a player may drop in price faster than they rose, if they are above their season starting price.

Q: When are multipliers reset?
When the GW deadline passes any multipliers in effect are dropped. That means that players will once again just require the 55,000 NTI threshold to rise in price.

So if a player had risen in price last GW, but not reached the second rise threshold (due to the 2x multiplier being applied) but he was in excess of the basic NTI threshold, then he would be eligible for a price rise at the next price change window as his multiplier would have been removed meaning his current NTI would now be above the required threshold.

Q: What if a player has risen and fallen in the same GW?
This doesn't happen often, but we believe that the effect is to negate all the rules so you are effectively back to the start. Multipliers would not count, and your player would technically still be eligible for a further 3 rises (or drops).

Q: What about very low ownership players?
There is a belief that very low ownership players (perhaps below 1% owned in FPL) may have some slightly different rules, possibly to prevent too much price volatility. Low ownership players therefore may be slightly more susceptible to an unexpected price rise or drop, or may not rise or drop when predicted.

The advanced rules - flags & price protection

Q: When a player is unflagged, what happens to his NTI/NTO?
When a player goes from either red, orange or yellow flagged to clear, then his NTO or NTI at that time is reset to 0. That would mean that an unflagged player would have to breach the NTI/NTO threshold again to effect a price rise. If a player simply changes between flag colours his NTI/NTO tally is believed to be unaffected.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Mav3rick » 22 Jul 2018, 17:00

Sources of Price Change Information

I'd currently recommend once price change site and that is FPL Statistics, which will show you which players are likely to rise or fall in price. FISO member nigeljdean is the owner of FPL statistics and can be followed on Twitter: @Fpl_statistics.

Be warned that the accuracy will be less early in the season and during times when large numbers of wildcards are played, it's an indicator of a likely price change not a guarantee! It can be especially inaccurate if any new rules are introduced by FPL.

FISO has it's own Price change history site which has been contributed to by many members over the years. It is a good resource for looking back at past trends in price rises, but is not as accurate as FPL Statistics for predicting impending price rises.

It's most certainly worth having both CtC and FPLS bookmarked as your go-to price change predictors.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Mav3rick » 22 Jul 2018, 17:05

FPL Strategies Influenced or Defined by Price Changes

There are some common FPL strategies that are either driven by or heavily influenced from the FPL price change mechanisms. The relative strengths and weaknesses (or even overall viability) of these strategies can change entirely dependent on the circumstances of a season.

A few of the most frequently talked about price-related strategies are outlined below, it would be useful to debate their strengths and weaknesses in the circumstances that face us in the new season.

Wildcard Money Making
This is a strategic idea that has stuck from several years ago when it was a more viable strategy. The idea is that you play your wildcard in a week early in the season with the intention of playing the market. I.e. bringing in players that will rise twice, but who you don't want to keep, and then pocketing the 0.1 profit before finalising your real wildcard team. It's often said that playing a wildcard in an international break (when we have a two week window for transfer activity) is beneficial for this strategy. In truth, the transfer activity is usually so low during the middle week of an international break that it makes no difference. Traditionally, it was the fact more wildcards were played in IBs (often seen as a natural time to take stock) that was one of the main drivers to the strategy. But since wildcard transfers are now not believed to contribute to price changes the argument that more price-affecting transfers will be made during the IB is somewhat shakey.

In recent seasons, the price rises have been more controlled so the opportunity for playing the market has decreased. It's still worth considering anyway when you do play your wildcard, but really if you make an extra 0.1 these days then you will have done well.

Team Value Building
This is very common strategy, the basic premise being that you make deliberate calculated extra transfers (hits) in an attempt to follow the market and to build team value in the first half of the season. That team value is then, in theory, unleashed in the second half of the season where you can afford players more expensive than your rivals.

Last season (2016/17) Jonty from FFS coined the phrase "Super Teams" to describe those who had followed this strategy. The downside is that generally you'll be further behind having used transfer hits on players you may not have really wanted but had to get to follow the money.

There are more serious disadvantages though, most notably that seasonal circumstances (cheap, high scoring assets) have the ability to make this kind of strategy completely irrelevant.

Team Value Preservation
One of the key differences between price rises and drops last year seemed to be that drops could happen faster with popular players than rises. This meant that losing TV was a critical problem and the preservation of team value, especially early in the season, is something to be aware of.

Team value preservation, rather than team value building, is the defence against price drops of your season starting squad possibly at the expense of hits, and differs from TV building as it's less aggressive on the number of hits necessary and is generally less transfer intensive overall. This article on price changes early in the season is particularly interesting and concludes:
FantasyFootballPundits wrote:there is a drastically higher level of price drops in the early weeks of the season under the parameters in operation over the past two seasons. More than 6 drops to every price rise which is more than double the drop/rise ratio of the season overall.

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Price rise / price fall

Post by Weisenwolf » 14 Aug 2018, 00:07

Well there are't any yet but we need a thread to monitor what will
Certainly happen.

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Re: Price rise / price fall

Post by Weisenwolf » 14 Aug 2018, 00:16

Well Mandy, neves & Wand-bass are the only players over 100% and
Experience sugget none of them will
Go up until the end of the week. Only major drop zone fella is Jones of Man U. So lots of knee jerks. The fastest risers don't
Include the three above so it's hard to guess who will gain price. It is clear there will
be fewer than usual IMHO.

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Re: Price rise / price fall

Post by brencarr » 14 Aug 2018, 00:17

I was looking for a place to chat about this so thanks for setting it up.

Is there a delay before price rises/falls kick in or is it just down to market forces?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Weisenwolf » 14 Aug 2018, 01:07

It's the early hours FPL being as they are they're is no reliable time so it's a bit random. It's worth knowing that the prediction sites are mathematical projections. So they take the NTI (transfers in - transfers out) and assume these are constant until the deadline. They are not. Richarlison was over 100% late Saturday night and is now +84.5%. So he's not going up (especially with that minor injury) Any time soon despite many more teams bringing him in . I.e the hysteria is over.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Fuzzy » 14 Aug 2018, 04:11

7 risers (including Richarlison) and 3 fallers tonight.

As always, it takes time for the price prediction sites to calibrate. Don’t overinterpret the data (or blame the predictors!).

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by ppath » 14 Aug 2018, 04:41

Richarlison is still 6.5?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Billy Bongo » 14 Aug 2018, 08:02

ppath wrote:Richarlison is still 6.5?
Refresh your page

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by hancockjr » 14 Aug 2018, 08:20

Sobhi of Huddersfield fell - seems like an odd one to me.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Oxford NZ » 14 Aug 2018, 09:13

ppath wrote:
14 Aug 2018, 04:41
Richarlison is still 6.5?
If you are looking at your transfer page and he is in your team he will still show at 6.5 because that is your selling price, until he goes up to 6.7 when you will get 6.6 for selling him if you go that way.
Look at the list view that will give you your purchase price, current value and selling price.
Keep any eye on the transfers out and in for key players if you want to build team value.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Oxford NZ » 14 Aug 2018, 09:24

hancockjr wrote:
14 Aug 2018, 08:20
Sobhi of Huddersfield fell - seems like an odd one to me.
Interesting. . At 5.0 he was over priced so that may be why along with the 0.3% ownership. Less that 3k transfers out and and a price drop is triggered but maybe it happened because of the low ownership and a alignment to a more realistic price. 4.5 would have been a better starting figure imo.
234 transfers in is very interesting though, do they know something we don't? :shock:

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by seagulluk » 14 Aug 2018, 09:52

hancockjr wrote:
14 Aug 2018, 08:20
Sobhi of Huddersfield fell - seems like an odd one to me.
Ramadan?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by ppath » 14 Aug 2018, 10:19

Got it, changed late morning though

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by seagulluk » 15 Aug 2018, 08:09

Pererya the only riser overnight.
Wheras Fabregas, Son, & Bakayoko fall

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by dod » 16 Aug 2018, 05:31

What do we think of this season's algorithm?

FPL statistics seem to have worked it out remarkably quickly and are making very accurate predictions so far. Judging by the first day it seems to be slightly less volatile than last season's (which in turn was far less volatile than the one in the previous season). Personally i'd have preferred slightly more volatility but maybe the second price movement of the GW will be a lower threshold than last season where we almost never saw double rises or drops. We'll have to wait and see.

If it is fairly similar to last season's algorithm then making money is going to be hard and the onus is going to be on avoiding drops and maintaining our budget. This is probably a good thing as it may mean simply owning and captaining Salah every GW may not be the optimum strategy.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by gio » 16 Aug 2018, 07:03

dod wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 05:31
What do we think of this season's algorithm?

FPL statistics seem to have worked it out remarkably quickly and are making very accurate predictions so far. Judging by the first day it seems to be slightly less volatile than last season's (which in turn was far less volatile than the one in the previous season). Personally i'd have preferred slightly more volatility but maybe the second price movement of the GW will be a lower threshold than last season where we almost never saw double rises or drops. We'll have to wait and see.

If it is fairly similar to last season's algorithm then making money is going to be hard and the onus is going to be on avoiding drops and maintaining our budget. This is probably a good thing as it may mean simply owning and captaining Salah every GW may not be the optimum strategy.
The second movement seems to be over 120,000 transfers, that is a hell of a lot isn't it? How much was it last year?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by seagulluk » 16 Aug 2018, 07:57

Jorginho & Holebas up.
Christensen down

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by dod » 16 Aug 2018, 08:21

gio wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 07:03
dod wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 05:31
What do we think of this season's algorithm?

FPL statistics seem to have worked it out remarkably quickly and are making very accurate predictions so far. Judging by the first day it seems to be slightly less volatile than last season's (which in turn was far less volatile than the one in the previous season). Personally i'd have preferred slightly more volatility but maybe the second price movement of the GW will be a lower threshold than last season where we almost never saw double rises or drops. We'll have to wait and see.

If it is fairly similar to last season's algorithm then making money is going to be hard and the onus is going to be on avoiding drops and maintaining our budget. This is probably a good thing as it may mean simply owning and captaining Salah every GW may not be the optimum strategy.
The second movement seems to be over 120,000 transfers, that is a hell of a lot isn't it? How much was it last year?
TBH I can't remember. This season FPL stats seem to think it's 70k for the first rise and 140k for the 2nd but Neves has had over 270k net transfers in and has yet to have a 2nd rise and Holebas has just has his 1st rise after about 120k NTI so it looks like the thresholds are likely to be 120k and 240k respectively but maybe i'm misreading something.

So far though we've had 10 risers and 8 fallers and generally the early weeks of the season are the most active given that there are few dead teams at this stage. It does seem this season that the market is very unvolatile. Maybe this is in line with what seems to be a general policy of protecting the "casual" players. The way I see it a 'slow' market makes it less important to chase bandwagons but more important to avoid fallers.

This is less crucial than determining whether or not money is going to be tight this season. Salah and Kane are expensive and eat up a lot of the budget. It is unlikely to be optimal to own both at the same time given that you can only captain one each week. Most of the other players though seem very reasonably priced and if you should choose to go without either Salah or Kane that leaves a lot of budget to go round. If a few cheap essentials emerge and Salah and Kane fail to live up to their premium price tags it would make budget constraints and chasing bandwagons pretty much irrelevant.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Finisher1 » 16 Aug 2018, 08:57

gio wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 07:03
The second movement seems to be over 120,000 transfers, that is a hell of a lot isn't it?
We can't know it yet because no one has risen twice yet. It can be one million transfers, who knows?

Also I think we have quite remarkably more managers than at the start of last season, so raising the threshold makes perfect sense.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by MoSe » 16 Aug 2018, 09:59

Mav3rick wrote:
22 Jul 2018, 17:00
FISO has it's own Price change history site which has been contributed to by many members over the years.
It is a good resource for looking back at past trends in price rises, but is not as accurate as FPL Statistics for predicting impending price rises.
as pointed out in the past, it was also a useful resource to check daily ownership data for a single player,
by clicking on his name and opening a player-history page

now instead if we try to check for the two players mentioned above
Holebas http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/fpl ... ry/?id=378
Neves http://crackthecode.fiso.co.uk/blog/fpl ... ry/?id=433
the pages are empty...

does the "recording" have to be "switched on", Rob?

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by MoSe » 16 Aug 2018, 11:02

dod wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 08:21
gio wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 07:03
dod wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 05:31
What do we think of this season's algorithm?
The second movement seems to be over 120,000 transfers, that is a hell of a lot isn't it?
How much was it last year?
TBH I can't remember.
This season FPL stats seem to think it's 70k for the first rise and 140k for the 2nd
but Neves has had over 270k net transfers in and has yet to have a 2nd rise
and Holebas has just has his 1st rise after about 120k NTI

so it looks like the thresholds are likely to be 120k and 240k respectively but maybe i'm misreading something.
if you check indeed FPLS, browsing it till you find those at 0.0% of the target,
you'll see a bunch of them with 69876 NTI missing, i.e. that's the 100.0% target they have to reach, around 70k as you said

if you sort the table by "Chgs" column, you'll see at the top the 10 players who already rose once this GW
none is exactly at 0.0
Holebas who just rose this morning is at 1.2% now with 138083 missing.
we can reverse-engineer the threshold from any player, take for instance Pogba
he's at 27.5%, missing 101280 NTI which are thus 72.5% of his target
if you do 101280 / 0.725 you get ~ 139.7k, the same if you try with other players, given some margin for the % rounding

so far that's in line with what you report (bolded statement)

for the rest, you seem to overlook what summarised by Mav in first posts
Changes occur once a day (generally 1am UK time)
if a player had 60k the day before, and 120k just before the change triggers, this doesn't mean the threashold is at 120k
it means the threshold is BETWEEN 60k and 120k
if FPLS, which is in learning mode, reports 70k, it means this is the current best assumption all data considered

and don't forget after a rise the excess NTI get "burned, the count for the 2nd rise is reset
if you check CTC you see Holebas had 3,743 net NTI today - but I think that's counted from midnight
FPLS says he had 1.2% since his rise, roughly 1.7k, probably because they're counted from 1am, change time

as with Neves, he rose 2 days ago
CTC says he got +8.5k net NTI today
FPL says he got
288913 TIR https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... s_in_event
16028 TOR https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... vent/te_20
Transfers In/Out Round, i.e. 272885 NTI since Friday 10 deadline (just over 5 days)
FPLS says he's missing 102156 for his 2nd rise, thus he has stashed around 37.6k in two days, since the change
this is where CTC's daily Neves ownership data would have come handy, alas it's not working (yet?)

you say "Neves has had over 270k net transfers in and has yet to have a 2nd rise"
you forget that his NTI for the 2nd rise got reset after his first one
he had to get 70k for the first rise, "burned" all the excess he had then, and started the count anew to reach 140k

provided it all works as we knew from last season, and that FPLS has already found a good approximation for the thresholds

FFFFix have a decent price prediction tool as well
they report ownership in a graph every half hour, only as ownership % those (and that's less useful as the total teams are constantly increasing)
they had Neves at 19% owners when he rose and at 20.6% now (that must be about 1M, 1,036,798 as CTC reports)
1.5% ownership increase in 2 days would be at least 75k, double the value we got above from FPLS
Neves 2nd Rise.png
FFFix have him at ~31% of his target, vs FPLS just ~27%
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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by swadd1er » 16 Aug 2018, 14:56

I hope Hudson-Odoi doesn’t drop..

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Stemania » 16 Aug 2018, 15:04

In addition to MoSe excellent post, the other important factor to note (regarding the observation that some players achieve far higher NTI/NTO than their stated thresholds) is of course that wildcard transfers don't count towards price changes but are included in NTI/NTO data.

In fact, the main problem for price change sites is in estimating the proportion of transfers that are down to wildcards, since that proportion varies from player to player. In fact, if it weren't for that complication the price change system would be near 100% solved and predictions would be near 100% accurate by now (assuming FPL are consistent in implementing their system).

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by dod » 16 Aug 2018, 21:33

MoSe wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 11:02
dod wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 08:21
gio wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 07:03
dod wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 05:31
What do we think of this season's algorithm?
The second movement seems to be over 120,000 transfers, that is a hell of a lot isn't it?
How much was it last year?
TBH I can't remember.
This season FPL stats seem to think it's 70k for the first rise and 140k for the 2nd
but Neves has had over 270k net transfers in and has yet to have a 2nd rise
and Holebas has just has his 1st rise after about 120k NTI

so it looks like the thresholds are likely to be 120k and 240k respectively but maybe i'm misreading something.
if you check indeed FPLS, browsing it till you find those at 0.0% of the target,
you'll see a bunch of them with 69876 NTI missing, i.e. that's the 100.0% target they have to reach, around 70k as you said

if you sort the table by "Chgs" column, you'll see at the top the 10 players who already rose once this GW
none is exactly at 0.0
Holebas who just rose this morning is at 1.2% now with 138083 missing.
we can reverse-engineer the threshold from any player, take for instance Pogba
he's at 27.5%, missing 101280 NTI which are thus 72.5% of his target
if you do 101280 / 0.725 you get ~ 139.7k, the same if you try with other players, given some margin for the % rounding

so far that's in line with what you report (bolded statement)

for the rest, you seem to overlook what summarised by Mav in first posts
Changes occur once a day (generally 1am UK time)
if a player had 60k the day before, and 120k just before the change triggers, this doesn't mean the threashold is at 120k
it means the threshold is BETWEEN 60k and 120k
if FPLS, which is in learning mode, reports 70k, it means this is the current best assumption all data considered

and don't forget after a rise the excess NTI get "burned, the count for the 2nd rise is reset
if you check CTC you see Holebas had 3,743 net NTI today - but I think that's counted from midnight
FPLS says he had 1.2% since his rise, roughly 1.7k, probably because they're counted from 1am, change time

as with Neves, he rose 2 days ago
CTC says he got +8.5k net NTI today
FPL says he got
288913 TIR https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... s_in_event
16028 TOR https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/sta ... vent/te_20
Transfers In/Out Round, i.e. 272885 NTI since Friday 10 deadline (just over 5 days)
FPLS says he's missing 102156 for his 2nd rise, thus he has stashed around 37.6k in two days, since the change
this is where CTC's daily Neves ownership data would have come handy, alas it's not working (yet?)

you say "Neves has had over 270k net transfers in and has yet to have a 2nd rise"
you forget that his NTI for the 2nd rise got reset after his first one
he had to get 70k for the first rise, "burned" all the excess he had then, and started the count anew to reach 140k

provided it all works as we knew from last season, and that FPLS has already found a good approximation for the thresholds

FFFFix have a decent price prediction tool as well
they report ownership in a graph every half hour, only as ownership % those (and that's less useful as the total teams are constantly increasing)
they had Neves at 19% owners when he rose and at 20.6% now (that must be about 1M, 1,036,798 as CTC reports)
1.5% ownership increase in 2 days would be at least 75k, double the value we got above from FPLS
Neves 2nd Rise.png
FFFix have him at ~31% of his target, vs FPLS just ~27%
Very good post. I actually thought of much of that after I went to bed but you have put it in a very clear and understandable format while I'd probably have just waffled a bit.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by dod » 16 Aug 2018, 21:38

Stemania wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 15:04
In addition to MoSe excellent post, the other important factor to note (regarding the observation that some players achieve far higher NTI/NTO than their stated thresholds) is of course that wildcard transfers don't count towards price changes but are included in NTI/NTO data.

In fact, the main problem for price change sites is in estimating the proportion of transfers that are down to wildcards, since that proportion varies from player to player. In fact, if it weren't for that complication the price change system would be near 100% solved and predictions would be near 100% accurate by now (assuming FPL are consistent in implementing their system).
Excellent point.

Does anyone remember what the thresholds were last season or if they were ever really worked out at all? It did seem there were quite a few price changes last year that caught us all out. Some people on FFS came to the conclusion that the system was being manually tampered with but that all seems a bit tinfoil hat to me.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by Stemania » 16 Aug 2018, 21:49

FPLS' rough estimates are pretty widely accepted (whatever they are), so 70k NTIs for the first rise, 140k for the 2nd, 210k for the third. As are the approximate 10% of ownership NTO for the first drop etc (for reasonably well owned players anyway).

However, the rise thresholds tend to vary (get lower) as the season progresses and there are fewer active players. The second post in this thread is worth a read.

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Re: The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes & Price Change Strategy

Post by hancockjr » 16 Aug 2018, 22:51

Stemania wrote:
16 Aug 2018, 15:04
In fact, if it weren't for that complication the price change system would be near 100% solved and predictions would be near 100% accurate by now (assuming FPL are consistent in implementing their system).
How do you know this? Clearly wildcards cause an error, but how do you know it accounts for 100% of the error?

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