Copy of my 4th Virgin Media Fantasy Football blog:
Continuing my analysis of game tactics, today I will look at the formation choices for your team. Then with the warm-up period starting this Saturday, I will suggest two very cheap players from each position that may be worth signing for your 15 man squad in order to make that £100m budget s t r e t c h that bit further.
There are three formations to choose from for your 11 man team. These are:
a) 4-4-2
b) 4-3-3
c) 4-5-1
So in each case you have to field 4 defenders. Your choice is purely whether to field 1, 2 or 3 forwards and reduce/increase your midfielders accordingly.
The main factor in deciding which of these formations should produce the most points over the season is the expected points for a typical player in each position. In other words, due to the scoring system, do you expect your typical midfielder to outscore your typical attacker. Other factors are:
i)How do the price of forwards compares to midfielders and the effect of the overall budget, however, there is a reasonably generous £100m budget in place so a 'value for money' calculation is less important in this case.
ii)You can also use a formation change to maximise the number of players playing at home, so your formation may change from week to week.
If we look at the scoring system (http://fantasyfootball.virginmedia.com/help/scoring.asp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) the only difference in the scoring system between forwards and midfielders is that midfielders receive 5 points for a goal compared to 3 points for goal scored by a forward.
If we look at the pricing of forwards compared to midfielders then the top priced forward is £13.1m (Torres) and the top priced midfielder is £12.4m (Gerrard). There are 7 forwards priced between £10m and £12m whilst there are only 2 midfielders in that range. So are forwards worth the extra money?
If your choice is between Torres or Gerrard then you need to ask yourself how many goals do you think each will score in the 38 league games. If the answer is 18 for Torres and 14 for Gerrard then that converts into 54 goal points for Torres and 70 for Gerrard. The star midfielders for the top ranked clubs are more than capable of getting into double figures and in fact Gerrard outscored Torres (by 16 to 14) last season. If instead your choice is between the £7.3m Aston Villa forward, Agbonlahor, and the £7.3m Valencia of Manchester United then if you feel Agbonlahor will again score 12 Premier League goals and Valencia will chip in with say 6 goals in his first season for Manchester United then Agbonlahor will have 6 more goal points than Valencia (36 versus 30).
The main message the scoring system suggests to me is that Gerrard and Lampard are 'must-haves' in my team. They have proven they are capable of being near the top of the Premier League scoring charts (partly because they take penalties for their clubs) and receive 2/3rds more goal points than forwards under the scoring system. However when you look outside of Gerrard and Lampard (with Ronaldo now departed these shores) there is less of an incentive to choose midfielders over forwards. I think I will be starting the warm-up period with a 4-4-2 formation (including Gerrard and Lampard, assuming Gerrard is fit) and look at how the points have been scored over the first couple of weeks before deciding on which formation to start gameweek 4 with.
Finally, a note of some very cheap players for your squad. Remember, the first 3 gameweeks are a warm-up period so we have plenty of time to see who the value players are before the game starts for real but if you want to do well in the warm-up then why not look at these players to help you spend big on other players:
Goalkeepers:
Brian Jensen – 1st choice for Burnley - £1.5m
Wayne Hennessey – likely to get the nod as Wolves' goalkeeper - £1.8m
Defenders:
Lars Jacobsen – should be 1st choice Right Back for Blackburn after his move from Everton - £1m
George McCartney – could be 1st choice Left Back for Sunderland - £1m
Emiliano Insua – should start as Liverpool's Left Back until Fabio Aurelio is fit - £1.5m
Midfielders:
Nenad Milijas – a goal scoring 26 year old Serbian international recently signed by Wolves - £1.1m
Jack Wilshere – maybe a future star for England but how often will he play for Arsenal - £1.1m
Forwards:
Hugo Rodallega – did well at the end of last season for Wigan - £2.6m
James McFadden – one of Birmingham's best players, although not an out and out striker - £2.9m
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