2019-20 Season

[Jules]

I know it’s a little early to be looking at this, and it’s somewhat irrelevant without player prices, but who have you got your eye on for next season?

There’s a few big names who have under performed points wise who could be relatively under priced next season. Kane has hit 200+ points but you might find he’s not the top priced player next season, especially if Hazard stays.

Some players have had an injury hit season like De Bruyne and Mendy, both of whom you’d think will be high scorers next season but may not be premium priced.

I think any of the regular Norwich players could prove good value, so I’ll be keen to see their prices. In particular I’d be looking at Stiepermann and Aarons, but I’m sure if not them, there’ll be a bargain in that team somewhere.

I’m not too keen on any Sheffield United players. I suspect Norwood will be their priciest player, so will probably look elsewhere for a bargain.

Other players I’ll be keenly checking on the prices when they come out:
- Lanzini and Fredericks at West Ham
- Rashford
- Joe Gomez
- Tielemans (assuming Leicester sign him)

Which players’ prices will you be scanning for first when the new game is launched?

[Zimmerman]

Ederson, Laporte, Zinchenko, whoever their new RB is, Sterling, Aguero and Bernardo.

Mane, Van Dijk. Arnold, Robertson, Salah and Keita.

Kane.

If Mendy can stay fit between now and August I’ll consider him.

Tielemans at Leicester will be of interest (Chilwell too).

None of the promoted players will be on my radar.
Antonio might get a few minutes of consideration.

Wolves will have European action won’t they... so no doubt I’ll get sucked in to getting a few too many of their players.

[Redrum2]

First of all , I will be looking at Man Utd defenders, should be cheap as chips. De Gea could be a bargain next season if priced at 3.5m. Luke Shaw is rated well but yellow cards are a problem.

Spurs should be better at their own stadium. Back Kane to be the top goal scorer. Eriksen and Alli could be priced nicely.

Liverpool defence might be too expensive. Doubt you will get Allison, Robertson, TAA and VvD for less than 4.5m each. VvD could be 5.5m or even 6m. Might just settle with two defenders VvD and TAA in my team rather than the full block.

Chilwell and Wan Bissaka could get moves to bigger clubs (thinking city and Utd respectively) so will be on the radar if moves happen after prices announced.

Wolves players especially Jota (predicted price: 2.5m - 3.0m) high on the radar as playing Oop. A wolves block to start the season with?

Felipe Anderson could be better after a full years experience of playing in premier league as has bags of talent but not the consistency. My team Newcastle holds some interest if Rafa stays and their form has improved in 2019. Everton’s Digne is one to watch.

No Chelsea players on radar if Hazard leaves as the most of the squad is old.

Sterling on the shortlist but not if he is listed as a striker. I given up on Mendy ever being fit. Do Man City need a new RB?

Heard that there is a Zimmerman at Norwich so will check out if is any good, although my knowledge of the championship is very poor. So don’t know anything about Norwich or Sheffield Utd so will spend the summer to find any bargains at these club along with the third promoted team.

Would like a return to values changing back to 0.3m per week or even 0.2m will do but I think they will stay at the current setting.

[Biddles32]

I have a core of 6 players in mind that i'd like to think i'll keep all season providing injuries don't assist. Then as mentioned Norwich players for budget will be scanned (Aarons being my favourite pick) Need that new Doherty in my teams.... Will wait to see who the third team is to get promoted but and have already been scouting the teams involved in the play offs. I'm hoping Hazard stays but can't see it especially if Chelsea don't get champs league (although looking like they will at the minute). Will only really focus on a pool of 7 strikers unless we get some more world class forwards arrive in the summer and just mix them up accordingly through my ten teams.

[S_sutton87]

Might give this a miss next season this season has been a bit drab I think very quiet on fiso in the sun game

Sent from my H8216 using Tapatalk

[Nightowl]

Don't think I would consider not entering a free game with a massive prize pool cause a chat room is quiet myself

[Relegated Again]

VAR penalties?

[Zimmerman]

Not sure it will make that much difference... are there an abundance (any) extra penalties in the CL or at the world cup?

[CBN]

Milivojevic plus ten others.

[gutshot]

Milivojevic plus ten others.

Wynayma down to nine.

[Nightowl]

Hope they add a bit more to their game with maybe another formation option (3-5-2) thought the 3-4-3 this year was a nice addition to the game,but still as soon as Kane got injured I really struggled with my third striker pick this season,maybe this would open up more decent differentials in teams for us instead of going to left field as I thought a lot of midfielders had lots to offer at times

[Jules]

Not sure it will make that much difference... are there an abundance (any) extra penalties in the CL or at the world cup?

There were at the World Cup. 29 pens in 2018, then going back through previous tournaments it was 13, 15, 17 and then 18 in 2002.

I’ll consider picking more penalty takers, but I also reckon it could mean fewer clean sheets for teams in general until they learn how to defend set pieces without all the grappling.

[Zimmerman]

Nice stats... wonder how the CL looks

[blahblah]

Nice stats... wonder how the CL looks

More so the Domestic Leagues imho.

From my aged memory Southgate nailed the corners, has that tactic worked domestically?

[Jules]

Nice stats... wonder how the CL looks

Copied from https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleagu ... 64018.html

2018/19 - 35 awarded; 76% scored (as at 20th February)
2017/18 - 34 awarded; 82% scored
2016/17 - 53 awarded; 62% scored
2015/16 - 43 awarded; 58% scored
2014/15 - 39 awarded; 79% scored
2013/14 - 46 awarded; 63% scored

I just counted 9 more since those stats were published, so that's 44 with five games to go. So, about average (there were 43 on average before this season).

[Zimmerman]

Top work Jules.

So we might hit 40-42 by the time it’s over. Up on last year, down in previous years.

EDIT: would help if I read the whole of your mail!

Obviously very small data set (for VAR) but nothing to suggest a massive difference. Obviously selectively ignoring the World Cup uplift but I’m attributing that to dodgy teams and inconsistent levels of referees. Throw in the domestic British ref to the equation and I think most things will remain equal... if anything a slight drop (some of the Salah, Kane, Zaha types might get one or two less).

[Jules]

This article suggests there's no significant increase in penalties in a league once VAR was introduced. However, this article suggests that penalties were higher at the start of the Italian season when VAR was first introduced.

Jan Vertonghen reckons there'll be up to 40 more penalties next season (source).

So, will you be leaning more towards a penalty taker when you've got a tough player choice to make?

[Zimmerman]

Indeed... but aren’t we always? For me it still has a tiny amount of influence on my decisions though.

Most penalty takers are the sorts of players you’d select for their attacking threat anyway (Kane or Aubameyang for example).

The exceptions might be players like Milner and Milivwhatshisname... would 2-3 extra penalties be enough to influence picking a player?

If it was Milner v Henderson in your decision tree, then yes. If it’s Milner v Bernardo then no it wouldn’t.

99 penalties so far (360 games).
40 additional would be extreme?
I think a sharp increase at the start of the season and then it will calm down.

Aside from VAR, what might be more telling is that handball doesn’t have to be deemed deliberate anymore (or have i imagined that)? That could cause a bigger uplift. Especially if you get a clever player capable of flicking the ball up at a defenders hand (Suárez used to do this for Liverpool... not sure if a deliberate ploy or not).

(Most penalties this season)

United 12
Palace 11
Bournemouth 9
Leicester/Liverpool 7
Everton/Saints/Brighton/Chelsea 5
City/Arsenal/West Ham/Spurs/Wolves 4
Newcastle/Fulham/Cardiff 3
Burnley 2
Huddersfield/Watford 1

[cclem345]

You have to factor in that while VAR may bring about a slight increase in penalties in one way the same thing will bring about a decrease on wrongfully awarded penalties meaning in the end it will cancel itself out.

Out of the 99 penalties there's been I'm sure at least 5/6 of those have either been dives or debatable that had the ref seen it again wouldn't have given it.

For example Kanes offside against Arsenal.

[DarkStyles]

initial thoughts are:
zinchenko
b silva
gomez
taa
keita
Hudson odoi
Doherty
boly
jota
jimenez
chilwell
periera
maddison
tielemans
digne
wan bissaka
perez
Wilson
fraser

all good differentials

[Jules]

all good differentials

Yes, differentials now, but all of those have scored well this season, or at least scored a decent amount of points per game, so you'd expect them to be either mid-priced or relatively over-priced next season. Not many (if any) of them will prove to be as good value as they were this season. Surely we're all looking for the next batch of these good value players?

The only exception might be Keita, who has scored 32 points in Liverpool's last 6 matches, having scored just 21 before that run of games. His total points and his points per game is fairly low so I'd expect he'll be in the 2.5m - 3.0m price bracket again, which might be good value if he continues to get in the team and score regular points as he has done these last few matches.

I've been doing some more Norwich research and I'm going to put it out there early that Emi Buendia will be a bargain next season. I fully expect Norwich to be amongst the relegation fight all season, but there's a player in every team who seems to get far more rating points than the others, even in defeat, and I expect it'll be him.

[Walter Bishop]

Joe Gomez for sure as you would imagine his price would be relatively low considering the Season he has had. Not sure how much he will be priced at but Vardy really could have a massive Season if he keeps up his form since Rodgers took charge of Leicester. I'm a little surprised that none of the Top Teams, or Chasers just below, took a chance on him as his form seemed to instantly return once he was under a new System and Manager. Just looked and since GW 27, when Rodgers took charge, he has scored 80 of his 148 Points for this Year, and only 68 in the First 26 Game Weeks. At this rate the Little Weasel will be a Monster Next Year .

[cclem345]

However Rodgers usually likes having possession which means Vardys effectiveness against deep lying defences may not be as effective as one would think. He thrives on counter attack like against Arsenal. But will Leicester be playing in that way next year?

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rodgers buy a more rounded centre forward who can drop deep and link up attack as well as getting in behind.

[Nightowl]

Leicester had 67% possession and 24 shots against Arsenal this weekend which didn't harm vardy, plus not sure it's all about counter attack with Rodgers it's just Leicester hit Arsenal quickly in transition of the ball and went from the back upto the front very direct which really suited vardy, I've got to agree with Walter on this one think Rodgers,Leicester and vardy maybe a hit next year

[cclem345]

You would expect them to batter a team who have a defence made of chocolate and had 10 men. His second goal was typically counter attack and his first was a gift from heaven.

He could well do well I just think that if Rodgers plays possession based football where teams have to drop deeper then Vardy won't be as prolific. But for 4-4.5m could be a value pick at some point in the season.

[Jules]

What are people's thought on these two under-performers:

Ozil
Alli

I expect they'll be mid-priced (around the 4.0m mark) so will they have another poor season, or will they get back to a level we know they're capable of reaching?

Also, will Mkhitaryan ever show his Dortmund form in the Premier League?

[Zimmerman]

Alli worth a punt... surely Ozil is a massive swerve (if he’s even still here).

[cclem345]

What are people's thought on these two under-performers:

Ozil
Alli

I expect they'll be mid-priced (around the 4.0m mark) so will they have another poor season, or will they get back to a level we know they're capable of reaching?

Also, will Mkhitaryan ever show his Dortmund form in the Premier League?

Miki no.
Ozil no.

Alli worth a shout if he can stay injury free. That is of course depending on what happens this summer at Spurs as I expect Alderweirld, Eriksen and one or two others not to be there.

[BLOCKHEAD]

Leno could be good pick as he has a very impressive record at saving pens and that calamitous Arsenal defence will give loads away once VAR comes in.

Lloris saved a few this season too. Not sure how much the whoscored rating goes up once a keeper saves a pen - if it's a big increase then pen saves could be worth up to +8 considering the keeper is in with a good chance of starman after saving one.

[7lb claimer]

Grealish is having a great season. If Villa don't win the play offs, he might still be on the market - perhaps Spurs. Alexis Sanchez on old form. If he stays and plays pre-season he'd be of interest. Hudson-Odoi has potential. Alex Iwobi is improving every year. Maddison can get better figures. Digne top class going forward.