Gameweek 30 Manager Mindset
Updated Notes
I was finally able to come up with some semblance of a strategy now that we have the majority of the DGW fixtures defined. I am looking at a likely 10 doublers in GW 34 + Haaland, providing no injury issues. I can get there without a hit and without sacrificing any key players with good fixtures except for Watkins vs. Brentford in 31 and Foden vs Luton in 33. My team in 34 looks pretty good, although I would prefer Darwin but that doesn't seem to be on the cards. This GW I will be rolling barring any injury news. This will allow me to go Watkins + Foden -> Semenyo + Salah in 31 with no hit. I toyed around with pulling that move forward a week but it doesn't improve me enough to justify the 4 points, especially as my team long term doesn't get that much better (is the potential for Cunha or Mateta instead of Haaland worth a -4 even with the DGW? I don't think so). If Alisson comes back, my Kelleher transfer is going to be annoying as it blocks Darwin, but nothing I can do about that now. I expect another red arrow this gameweek as my team will be at a big disadvantage to wild carders, but hopefully I can make that up later on.
Original Notes
The free hit in 29 went about as badly as possible. Reguilon (who few would have had if not for the BGW) killed the week with a 9 minute red card that impacted both my GK and my FWD. I was on Gibbs-White the entire week until looking more thoroughly at Elanga who had much better underlying stats, actually played longer in the game (costing him a point) and saw a massive chance for an assist get cleared off the line. Spurs players were absolute shit as well. The only good thing is that almost no one else did anything barring Muniz and MGW so the damage was minimal. Still, like almost every year since its existence my FH went terribly.
Still though it was the correct decision for my team. I would have had virtually no chance of getting to even 9 players without major team surgery. Plus, I would have had to bring in players I didn't want earlier and would be looking at a quick WC after. I did not want to go that route with all the unknowns in the fixture calendar. Now, if you could have guaranteed me the exact GW 34 and 37 fixtures beforehand I may have planned differently. But you couldn't and we still don't even know. So ANYONE claiming using the chip was a terrible (or good decision) is just full of it. It was individual to each team determined by the mix of players, willingness to play a WC early, and existence of bench boost and triple captain chips. There is no "correct" decision with so many variables, the biggest being we have no idea who plays when heading down the stretch. FPL is a game with a ton of luck and this is just another example of it.
As far as my team strategy, it's all dependent upon fixtures. Once those are known I will plan. Until then it's worthless speculation.