The final day of the 2025/26 Premier League season arrives with several major storylines still unresolved. While the title race is already settled with Arsenal as champions, the final weekend still carries enormous significance:
- Spurs and West Ham are battling to avoid the final relegation place
- Positions 6th to 8th remain crucial in the race for European qualification
- Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea and Brentford are all still fighting for continental football
As always on the final day, motivation becomes a major predictive factor. Teams with everything to play for often outperform underlying season-long metrics, while sides safely positioned can become unpredictable.
Recent xG trends from GW36 and GW37 have also shaped several calls:
- Manchester City completely dominated Brentford and remain in relentless form
- Bournemouth earned another huge result against City and continue to be elite away from home
- Brighton’s underlying numbers against Leeds were excellent despite defeat
- Spurs remain fragile defensively despite picking up points recently
- West Ham continue conceding high-quality chances regularly
The final day traditionally produces goals, chaos and emotional swings — so expect several high-event matches.
FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Below are our predicted EPL scores for the next GW using a statistical model. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!
GW38 Predictions Table
| Fixture | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton vs Man Utd | 2-2 | Medium |
| Burnley vs Wolves | 2-1 | Low |
| Crystal Palace vs Arsenal | 1-2 | Medium |
| Fulham vs Newcastle | 1-1 | Medium |
| Liverpool vs Brentford | 2-2 | Medium |
| Man City vs Aston Villa | 3-1 | High |
| Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth | 1-2 | Medium |
| Sunderland vs Chelsea | 2-1 | Medium |
| Tottenham vs Everton | 2-1 | Medium |
| West Ham vs Leeds | 1-1 | Medium |
Match-by-Match Analysis
Brighton vs Man Utd
United’s home form has been exceptional recently, but their away profile is less dominant. Brighton remain one of the strongest attacking home sides in the division and still have a realistic European target.
The Seagulls created far more than Leeds in GW37 despite losing 1-0, suggesting positive attacking regression could arrive here.
Prediction: Brighton 2-2 Man Utd
Confidence: Medium
Burnley vs Wolves
Both sides are already relegated, which makes this one difficult to model emotionally.
Burnley have at least shown more attacking intent recently, while Wolves continue posting extremely poor away metrics and remain bottom of the away form table.
Final-day freedom could produce goals.
Prediction: Burnley 2-1 Wolves
Confidence: Low
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Arsenal have already secured the title, but Mikel Arteta’s side rarely switch off structurally. Palace’s home form is solid and they remain capable of causing problems in transition.
Still, Arsenal’s defensive consistency and recent form edge make them deserved favourites.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Arsenal
Confidence: Medium
Fulham vs Newcastle
Neither side has been especially reliable recently. Newcastle’s attack remains dangerous but their away defensive numbers continue to fluctuate badly.
Fulham’s home form remains respectable and this feels like a balanced final-day draw.
Prediction: Fulham 1-1 Newcastle
Confidence: Medium
Liverpool vs Brentford
Brentford are still alive in the European race and remain awkward away opponents. Liverpool games have become increasingly chaotic:
- 20 goals scored in last 10
- 17 conceded
- 90% BTTS rate
That points strongly toward another open contest.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Brentford
Confidence: Medium
Man City vs Aston Villa
City remain the strongest home side in the league statistically:
- Best home PPG
- Elite xG dominance
- Excellent defensive control
Villa’s away form has deteriorated sharply and their recent away PPG is among the league’s weakest.
Even with nothing tangible left to chase, City should finish strongly.
Prediction: Man City 3-1 Aston Villa
Confidence: High
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
This may quietly be one of the most important games of the round in the European race.
Bournemouth’s away form is elite:
- Best away PPG in league
- Unbeaten in last 10
- Consistently strong underlying numbers
Forest have improved recently but Bournemouth’s structure and momentum still give them the edge.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Bournemouth
Confidence: Medium
Sunderland vs Chelsea
Chelsea’s decline has continued for weeks and Sunderland remain highly motivated after a strong recent run.
The Black Cats have become one of the better away and transitional sides statistically over the last 10 matches, while Chelsea’s confidence looks extremely fragile.
Prediction: Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea
Confidence: Medium
Tottenham vs Everton
This is the biggest pressure fixture of the day.
Spurs know survival is in their own hands and the emotional energy at home should be enormous. Everton remain competitive but often open defensively away from home.
Tottenham’s attack should just do enough.
Prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Everton
Confidence: Medium
West Ham vs Leeds
West Ham also enter the final day under huge pressure. Leeds, however, remain one of the division’s most resilient away teams:
- Only one away defeat in last six
- Five draws in that stretch
- Strong defensive structure
This feels tense, cagey and potentially frustrating for both sides.
Prediction: West Ham 1-1 Leeds
Confidence: Medium
Final Day Themes
1. Bournemouth Look Best Placed For Europe
Among the European challengers, Bournemouth arrive with:
- The best recent away form
- Strongest momentum
- Consistent underlying xG levels
They look well-positioned to secure continental football.
2. Relegation Pressure Could Distort Normal Form
Spurs and West Ham are both under enormous psychological pressure.
Historically, survival-day matches tend to produce:
- More defensive mistakes
- Higher emotional variance
- Unexpected momentum swings
That slightly reduces confidence in both relegation-related predictions.
3. Final-Day Goals Likely
Several indicators point toward another high-scoring final weekend:
- Multiple teams chasing Europe
- Survival pressure
- Relaxed mid-table teams
- Historically volatile final rounds
Strong candidates for goals:
- Brighton vs Man Utd
- Liverpool vs Brentford
- Spurs vs Everton
- Forest vs Bournemouth
Predicted Final Top 8
- Arsenal
- Manchester City
- Manchester United
- Aston Villa
- Liverpool
- Bournemouth
- Brighton
- Brentford
Predicted Relegation
- West Ham
- Burnley
- Wolves