Gameweek 30 arrives with an unusual tactical backdrop. An incredible 6 Premier League sides are involved in the Champions League knockout second legs next week, and the level of jeopardy in those ties may influence selection and intensity in the league this weekend.
- Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle are still alive in their ties, meaning rotation or cautious minutes management could appear in GW30.
- Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham, having lost their first legs heavily (all by 3 goals), are more likely to prioritise the league.
Using our model principles — last-10 form, home/away form, and xG signals from the last two rounds — below are the projected outcomes. FISO was founded over 25 years ago in 2000 and is the longest-running UK fantasy sports online community – Independent, community-driven fantasy football analysis since before FPL existed!
GW30 Predictions Table
| Fixture | Model Score | Notes |
|---|
| Burnley vs Bournemouth | 1–1 | Two weak attacks |
| Sunderland vs Brighton | 1–2 | Brighton slight quality edge |
| Arsenal vs Everton | 2–1 | Everton strong away but Arsenal home strength |
| Chelsea vs Newcastle | 2–1 | Chelsea attacking well, Newcastle UCL distraction |
| West Ham vs Man City | 1–2 | City control but West Ham score at home |
| Crystal Palace vs Leeds | 1–1 | Very balanced matchup |
| Man Utd vs Aston Villa | 2–1 | United elite home form |
| Nottingham Forest vs Fulham | 1–1 | Forest poor but Fulham inconsistent |
| Liverpool vs Tottenham | 2–1 | Home advantage dominates despite UCL distraction |
| Brentford vs Wolves | 2–0 | Wolves worst away form |
Match-by-Match Analysis
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Burnley remain one of the weakest sides in both the last-10 form table and home form metrics. Bournemouth, however, have struggled to convert chances recently. With both sides inconsistent defensively, this has the feel of a balanced lower-midtable contest.
Prediction: Burnley 1–1 Bournemouth
Sunderland vs Brighton
Brighton’s away form is poor overall, but Sunderland have struggled to generate goals in recent weeks. Brighton’s possession style usually produces enough chances against teams in the bottom half.
Prediction: Sunderland 1–2 Brighton
Arsenal vs Everton
Arsenal are second in the last-10 form table and strong at home, but Everton arrive with the best away form in the league over the last six matches. Arsenal may also have an eye on their Champions League second leg.
Still, the Emirates advantage should be enough.
Prediction: Arsenal 2–1 Everton
Chelsea vs Newcastle
Chelsea’s attacking output over the last 10 matches has been strong (21 goals). Newcastle are inconsistent away from home and could be influenced by their European tie.
Chelsea’s freedom from Champions League pressure could show.
Prediction: Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle
West Ham vs Man City
City remain unbeaten in their last six away matches and continue to generate strong xG numbers. West Ham can be competitive at home but tend to concede against elite sides.
Prediction: West Ham 1–2 Man City
Crystal Palace vs Leeds
Both teams sit mid-table in form metrics and neither defence is particularly reliable. Palace’s home edge may balance Leeds’ ability to nick goals on the counter.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1–1 Leeds
Man United vs Aston Villa
United top both the home form table and the last-10 form standings. Villa remain dangerous but their away performances have dipped recently.
United’s defensive record at Old Trafford suggests they should edge this.
Prediction: Man United 2–1 Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
Forest are struggling badly at home (no wins in their last six). Fulham have produced strong attacking numbers but remain inconsistent on the road.
This looks like one of the most draw-leaning fixtures of the round.
Prediction: Forest 1–1 Fulham
Liverpool vs Tottenham
This is the most volatile match of the week. Tottenham’s form is extremely poor, but they remain capable of scoring. Liverpool may also rotate slightly ahead of their Champions League tie.
Goals look likely.
Prediction: Liverpool 2–1 Tottenham
Brentford vs Wolves
Brentford are one of the best away teams in the league and solid at home too. Wolves remain bottom of the away-form metrics and struggle to create chances.
Brentford should control this one.
Prediction: Brentford 2–0 Wolves
Key Statistical Angles This Week
Best Home Edge:
- Man United vs Villa
Strongest Away Side:
- Man City at West Ham
Most Likely Draws:
- Burnley vs Bournemouth
- Forest vs Fulham
- Palace vs Leeds
Most Open Match:
- Liverpool vs Tottenham
✅ Model Lean Summary
- Home wins: 5
- Draws: 3
- Away wins: 2
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