Another quick turnaround Gameweek as the Premier League schedule barely pauses for breath after GW25. With only a short break, rotation risk, fatigue and regression to the mean all come into play – making this an ideal week to lean on form tables, home/away splits and xG trend signals rather than simply raw results.
GW25 again highlighted several “process vs outcome” mismatches, with Bournemouth, Burnley, Fulham and Newcastle all posting strong xG but failing to win. Those teams are now firmly on the regression watchlist for GW26, while the usual elite home sides (Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United) continue to justify trust when the underlying numbers support them.
Below is the fixture-by-fixture breakdown. The algorithm-based score predictions for GW26 below are based on a) Recent form (last 6 to 10 matches) including Home and Away Form and b) Results and XGs from last 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.
Chelsea vs Leeds
Chelsea’s win away at Wolves was backed up by dominant underlying numbers, and Stamford Bridge remains a difficult place to go. Leeds did produce big xG against Forest, but their away form across the season remains among the weakest in the league. This feels like a narrow home win rather than a comfortable one, with Leeds capable of contributing a goal.
Prediction: Chelsea 2–1 Leeds
Everton vs Bournemouth
Everton’s victory at Fulham was one of the more misleading results of GW25, with Fulham dominating the chances. Bournemouth, by contrast, were unlucky not to beat Aston Villa after creating heavily. This is a classic “process beats result” spot, with Bournemouth looking the value side based on recent xG trends.
Prediction: Everton 1–2 Bournemouth
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Tottenham continue to struggle for consistency, and their recent form remains patchy. Newcastle were one of the most eye-catching teams in the underlying numbers last week, posting a high xG total despite losing. With both teams capable of conceding chances, this has the look of a volatile fixture, but Newcastle’s attacking process gives them a slight edge.
Prediction: Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle
West Ham vs Manchester United
United’s away form profile is among the strongest in the league, and their performance at Spurs was solid across most metrics. West Ham’s win over Burnley came despite being second best on xG, which often proves unreliable as a platform for momentum. This looks like a relatively strong away spot for United.
Prediction: West Ham 0–2 Man United
Aston Villa vs Brighton
Villa remain a strong home side, even if their recent result against Bournemouth flattered them slightly. Brighton’s form has dipped and their away performances haven’t carried the same threat seen earlier in the season. Villa’s home edge and greater attacking consistency tip this one in their favour, though Brighton are competitive enough to keep it close.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2–1 Brighton
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
Burnley were arguably unlucky to lose to West Ham and have been more competitive in chance creation than the table suggests. Palace’s win at Brighton was supported by the underlying numbers, but they still struggle to turn control into goals consistently. This profiles as a low-margin game, with a draw the most likely outcome.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1–1 Burnley
Manchester City vs Fulham
City’s home record remains elite, and their draw at Spurs was backed by strong xG. Fulham, however, were unlucky against Everton and continue to create chances regularly, even away from home. Expect City to dominate territory and chances, but Fulham may have enough to avoid a shut-out.
Prediction: Man City 2–1 Fulham
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
Wolves’ away form remains one of the weakest in the division, and Forest’s home performances tend to be more competitive even when overall form dips. Neither side is prolific, so this looks more like a narrow, low-scoring affair than a high-event game.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–0 Wolves
Sunderland vs Liverpool
Sunderland’s home form has been quietly strong over a sustained period, while Liverpool’s away performances have fluctuated between impressive and flat. With Liverpool often conceding chances on the road and Sunderland competitive at home, this has draw written all over it.
Prediction: Sunderland 1–1 Liverpool
Brentford vs Arsenal
Arsenal continue to top most of the recent-form metrics and were convincing again last time out. Brentford’s win over Newcastle came despite being second best on xG, suggesting some short-term overperformance. Arsenal’s consistency across results and process makes them the safer pick, though Brentford are strong enough at home to keep this tight.
Prediction: Brentford 1–2 Arsenal
GW26 Predictions Table
| Fixture | Score Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Leeds | 2–1 | Medium-High |
| Everton vs Bournemouth | 1–2 | Medium |
| Tottenham vs Newcastle | 1–2 | Medium |
| West Ham vs Man Utd | 0–2 | High |
| Aston Villa vs Brighton | 2–1 | Medium-High |
| Crystal Palace vs Burnley | 1–1 | Medium |
| Man City vs Fulham | 2–1 | High |
| Nottingham Forest vs Wolves | 1–0 | Medium |
| Sunderland vs Liverpool | 1–1 | Medium |
| Brentford vs Arsenal | 1–2 | Medium-High |
Also here’s the EPL results stats up to GW25 including most common scores:
Home/Draw/Away results Out of 250 matches:
Home wins: 110 (44%)
Draws: 65 (26%)
Away wins: 75 (30%)
Takeaway:
Home advantage is still real, but away wins are pretty chunky this season (30%).
Most common scores up to GW25:
1–1 → 30 matches (12%)
2–1 → 23 matches (9.2%)
2–0 → 23 matches (9.2%)
0–0 → 17 matches (6.8%)
0–1 → 17 matches (6.8%)
1–2 → 17 matches (6.8%)
3–0 → 16 matches (6.4%)
2–2 → 15 matches (6%)
1–0 → 14 matches (5.6%)
3–1 → 14 matches (5.6%)