Saturday 31 January – Monday 2 February 2026
GW24 sits in a familiar sweet spot for goals. The Champions League pause removes midweek fatigue for most sides, but League Cup semi-final second legs on Tuesday and Wednesday next week do slightly cloud the picture for Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Newcastle United. With first-leg advantages already established for Arsenal and City, rotation risk is modest rather than extreme.
The algorithm-based score predictions for GW22 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) and c) Away Form performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home) and d) XGs from past 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot? The model expectation this GW24 bweek is 26–30 total goals, slightly lower than GW23 but still above the season mean. Several fixtures show xG imbalance carry-over, particularly where teams under- or over-performed in GW23.
Brighton vs Everton
Brighton continue to post solid underlying numbers without fully converting them, while Everton remain one of the league’s strongest away units by recent form. Everton’s defensive xG suppression away from home keeps this tight, but Brighton’s chance volume suggests they should at least score.
Prediction: Brighton 1–1 Everton
Confidence: Medium
Leeds vs Arsenal
Leeds remain competitive but struggle to control matches against top-six opponents. Arsenal’s attacking output dipped slightly last week, but their xG trend remains strong and they rotate far more comfortably than most ahead of the League Cup.
Prediction: Leeds 1–2 Arsenal
Confidence: High
Wolves vs Bournemouth
Two sides who concede chances regularly. Wolves’ home xG against is creeping upward, while Bournemouth continue to outperform expectations in open games. This profiles as a volatile, BTTS-friendly fixture.
Prediction: Wolves 1–2 Bournemouth
Confidence: Medium
Chelsea vs West Ham
Chelsea’s recent results have lagged behind their attacking xG, while West Ham’s defensive numbers remain among the weakest in the league. Even with a semi-final looming, Chelsea should create enough.
Prediction: Chelsea 2–1 West Ham
Confidence: Medium
Liverpool vs Newcastle
Liverpool’s recent home xG has been strong but finishing erratic. Newcastle’s away numbers are solid, yet defensive lapses persist against elite attacks. With no Champions League distraction and a point to prove, Liverpool look set for a narrow win.
Prediction: Liverpool 2–1 Newcastle
Confidence: Medium
Aston Villa vs Brentford
Villa’s home control remains excellent, but Brentford are one of the league’s most dangerous transition sides away from home. Villa’s xG edge should tell, though a clean sheet looks unlikely.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2–1 Brentford
Confidence: Medium
Manchester United vs Fulham
United’s attacking form has improved noticeably, particularly at Old Trafford. Fulham remain competitive but concede chances in clusters away from home. This feels like a fixture where United’s recent xG momentum converts.
Prediction: Manchester United 2–1 Fulham
Confidence: Medium
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
Forest’s home performances are improving, while Palace’s attacking output remains one of the weakest in the league by xG and are now bottom of the 6 game form table. A low-tempo, low-margin game suits Forest.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace
Confidence: Medium
Tottenham vs Manchester City
City may rotate slightly, but Spurs’ defensive numbers against top sides remain fragile. City’s ability to control territory and limit counter-attacks gives them a clear edge, even away from home.
Prediction: Tottenham 1–2 Manchester City
Confidence: Medium
Sunderland vs Burnley
Sunderland continue to draw frequently, but Burnley’s underlying numbers suggest they should be scoring more than they are. These two teams are in the bottom 3 of the 6 game form table so low on confidence. This looks like a fixture where regression nudges Burnley onto the scoresheet, though not necessarily to a win.
Prediction: Sunderland 1–1 Burnley
Confidence: Medium
GW24 Predictions Table
| Fixture | Score Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton vs Everton | 1–1 | Medium |
| Leeds vs Arsenal | 1–2 | High |
| Wolves vs Bournemouth | 1–2 | Medium |
| Chelsea vs West Ham | 2–1 | Medium |
| Liverpool vs Newcastle | 2–1 | Medium |
| Aston Villa vs Brentford | 2–1 | Medium |
| Manchester United vs Fulham | 2–1 | Medium |
| Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace | 1–0 | Medium |
| Tottenham vs Manchester City | 1–2 | Medium |
| Sunderland vs Burnley | 1–1 | Medium |