Saturday 24th – Sunday 26th January 2026
GW23 arrives with a very different feel to the previous two rounds. The extreme congestion and goal spikes seen in GW20–21 have eased slightly, but the Champions League midweek round (Wed 28th) now plays a decisive role — particularly for Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United, who are all fighting for top-eight qualification whilst Liverpool look to have an easier match. By contrast, Arsenal are already qualified with a perfect Champions League record, giving them a rare scheduling advantage this weekend.
The algorithm-based score predictions for GW22 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) and c) Away Form performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home) and d) XGs from past 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot? For GW23 an upgraded model now formally includes:
- xG regression (for both under-scoring and lucky clean sheets),
- away-form prioritisation over league position,
- fixture-importance downgrades for clubs facing decisive European ties,
- and a low-block / draw-inflation rule when attacking metrics are suppressed.
🔍 Match-by-match commentary
West Ham vs Sunderland
West Ham continue to struggle for control in midfield and remain one of the weakest sides on recent form. Sunderland, meanwhile, are quietly one of the league’s most draw-prone teams, especially away from home. Neither side profiles as a strong finisher, and both average well below 1.3 xGF recently.
Prediction: tight, attritional, and likely level.
Burnley vs Tottenham
Burnley are competitive but blunt, while Spurs now have a decisive Champions League fixture looming midweek. That typically suppresses Spurs’ attacking ceiling rather than their overall result. Burnley’s defence still concedes chances, and Spurs should edge it — but not comfortably.
Fulham vs Brighton
A classic mid-table stalemate profile. Both sides create chances without converting at elite rates, and both rank highly for 1–1 outcomes. Brighton’s away form is respectable but not dominant; Fulham remain stubborn at home.
Manchester City vs Wolves
City’s Champions League match matters after their poor defensive performance away on Tuesday 20th, but this is still a fixture where their squad depth (after a couple of major purchases in this January window) can manage both competitions despite missing their regular centre-back combination due to injuries. Wolves struggle badly away against elite possession sides and generate little sustained xG.
This should be one of the clearer home wins of the round.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Liverpool are in a slightly different European position: they likely only need a draw at home midweek against medium opposition, which reduces rotation risk compared to other UCL sides. Bournemouth concede heavily when pressed aggressively, and Liverpool’s recent xG trend suggests they are due a more clinical display.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
Brentford’s home numbers remain strong, and Forest’s away performances fluctuate wildly and will be a little jaded from their Thursday Europa League match tonight. Forest are capable of frustrating better teams, but Brentford’s pressing and set-piece threat should tilt this in their favour.
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Chelsea’s European fixture is genuinely decisive, and the model continues to fade their attacking output in such weeks. Palace are low-scoring but defensively awkward (and have sold their main centre back to Man City), and this has all the hallmarks of another frustrating Chelsea away trip.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
One of the most volatile fixtures of the round. Both sides generate strong xG, both concede chances, and Newcastle’s Champions League pressure adds uncertainty rather than clarity. Villa are far more dangerous away than league position alone suggests although have 1 day less recovery time after their Europa Cup match tonight.
Goals at both ends feel inevitable.
Arsenal vs Manchester United
This is where the scheduling edge really matters. Arsenal have no European distraction, excellent home control metrics, and consistently suppress opponent xG. United remain dangerous but erratic, and still struggle against structured high-press sides.
Arsenal should edge a high-quality contest.
Everton vs Leeds
Everton’s away luck has already regressed, but at Goodison they remain difficult to break down. Leeds continue to post decent xG without turning it into goals, particularly away from home. This profiles as a narrow home win with limited scoring.
📋 GW23 Score Predictions Table
| Fixture | Score Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham vs Sunderland | 1–1 | Medium |
| Burnley vs Tottenham | 1–2 | Medium |
| Fulham vs Brighton | 1–1 | Medium |
| Manchester City vs Wolves | 2–0 | High |
| Bournemouth vs Liverpool | 1–2 | Medium |
| Brentford vs Nottingham Forest | 2–1 | Medium |
| Crystal Palace vs Chelsea | 1–1 | Medium |
| Newcastle vs Aston Villa | 2–2 | Medium |
| Arsenal vs Manchester United | 2–1 | High |
| Everton vs Leeds | 1–0 | Medium |
🔮 Final GW23 outlook
- Expected total goals: ~28–30
- Fewer extreme scorelines than GW20–21
- Draw probability remains elevated in mid-table fixtures
- Arsenal stand out as the clearest structural edge this week