17–19 January 2026
GW21 again leaned towards higher-than-average goal output, continuing the post-Christmas trend of open matches and defensive fatigue. While GW22 offers a slightly longer rest than GW20/21, the presence of midweek Champions League fixtures for several clubs introduces a new rotation and focus risk — especially for Spurs, Newcastle and Liverpool who face more important fixtures than Arsenal, Man City & Chelsea.
Recent xG data across the last two GWs shows several clubs either under- or over-performing their chance quality, which is factored into the scorelines below. Away-form specialists also continue to outperform expectations, particularly Aston Villa and Everton, while some traditionally strong home sides are showing vulnerability.
The algorithm-based score predictions for GW22 below are based on a) the current overall EPL Leaderboard, b) Recent form (last 6 matches) and c) Away Form performances (to factor in the clubs that perform better away from home) and d) XGs from past 2 GWs. FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot?
Match-by-match analysis
Man Utd vs Man City
The Manchester derby comes at an awkward time for both sides. Man City remain solid but have shown slightly reduced attacking sharpness recently, while Man Utd continue to draw frequently and rarely keep clean sheets. City’s away form is strong but derbies are often tight and scrappy, with momentum and small details often deciding the outcome.
Because of that, many fans look beyond the basic scorelines and follow in-depth previews, statistics, and expert breakdowns shared across football-focused platforms such as Mostbet, where match context, form trends, and tactical expectations are often discussed alongside other sports content. This broader perspective helps explain why derby games so often resist clear predictions.
Prediction: Narrow City win rather than a blow-out.
Pred: Man Utd 1–2 Man City
Chelsea vs Brentford
Brentford are one of the standout away performers this season and continue to create high xG chances. Chelsea remain inconsistent and concede chances even when controlling possession. Brentford’s physicality and counter-pressing suits Stamford Bridge away trips.
Pred: Entertaining draw with goals.
Pred: Chelsea 2–2 Brentford
Leeds vs Fulham
Leeds are competitive but concede too many chances, while Fulham are one of the most balanced sides in the league right now. Fulham’s recent xG suggests they’re converting efficiently without relying on luck.
Pred: Fulham edge it late.
Pred: Leeds 1–2 Fulham
Liverpool vs Burnley
Liverpool have underperformed xG over the last two GWs, especially in finishing, suggesting attacking regression to the mean is likely. However, with a Champions League game looming, some rotation is expected. Burnley will defend deep but still concede chances.
Pred: Liverpool win without going wild.
Pred: Liverpool 3–1 Burnley
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace
Two mid-table sides who often cancel each other out. Palace’s away form is respectable, while Sunderland continue to rack up draws. Neither side shows strong xG dominance recently.
Pred: Low-margin stalemate.
Pred: Sunderland 1–1 Crystal Palace
Tottenham vs West Ham
Spurs have a Champions League fixture shortly after this match, and rotation is likely. West Ham are struggling overall but often raise performance levels in London derbies. Spurs’ defensive structure has looked vulnerable when rotated.
Pred: Open game, goals at both ends.
Pred: Tottenham 2–2 West Ham
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Arsenal are the most consistent side in the league and top the away table over recent matches. Forest have been competitive at home but concede high-quality chances. Arsenal’s xG conversion remains strong.
Pred: Professional Arsenal win.
Pred: Nottingham Forest 0–2 Arsenal
Wolves vs Newcastle
Newcastle are in good scoring form but have a key Champions League fixture midweek. Wolves’ underlying numbers suggest they often concede more than results indicate. Expect rotation and some defensive looseness from Newcastle.
Pred: Tight away win.
Pred: Wolves 1–2 Newcastle
Aston Villa vs Everton
This is a fascinating matchup between two strong away-form sides — but Villa at home remain very reliable. Everton’s recent clean sheets came despite conceding high xG, suggesting defensive regression.
Pred: Villa edge a competitive game.
Pred: Aston Villa 2–1 Everton
Brighton vs Bournemouth
Both sides play open football and rank highly for BTTS and Over 2.5 metrics. Bournemouth concede plenty but also score regularly, while Brighton’s home xG remains solid.
Pred: Goals for both, honours even.
Pred: Brighton 2–2 Bournemouth
GW22 Predictions Table
| Fixture | Score Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd vs Man City | 1–2 | Medium |
| Chelsea vs Brentford | 2–2 | Medium |
| Leeds vs Fulham | 1–2 | Medium |
| Liverpool vs Burnley | 3–1 | High |
| Sunderland vs Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Medium |
| Tottenham vs West Ham | 2–2 | Medium |
| Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 0–2 | High |
| Wolves vs Newcastle | 1–2 | Medium |
| Aston Villa vs Everton | 2–1 | Medium |
| Brighton vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | Medium |