First let’s look at how we did last Gameweek – GW17 – Prediction vs Actual Review
Using the following Scoring system (that’s also in place for FISO Goals) our algorithm scored 10 points in GW17.
- ✅ Correct result (W/D/L): 1 point
- 🎯 Exact scoreline: 3 points (instead of 1)
Match-by-match scoring
| Fixture | Prediction | Result | Outcome | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle vs Chelsea | 2–2 | 2–2 | Exact score | 3 |
| Bournemouth vs Burnley | 1–0 | 1–1 | Wrong result | 0 |
| Brighton vs Sunderland | 1–1 | 0–0 | Correct result | 1 |
| Man City vs West Ham | 3–1 | 3–0 | Correct result | 1 |
| Wolves vs Brentford | 1–1 | 0–2 | Wrong result | 0 |
| Tottenham vs Liverpool | 1–2 | 1–2 | Exact Score | 3 |
| Everton vs Arsenal | 1–2 | 0–1 | Correct result | 1 |
| Leeds vs Crystal Palace | 2–2 | 4–1 | Wrong result | 0 |
| Aston Villa vs Man Utd | 3–1 | 2–1 | Correct result | 1 |
| Fulham vs Nottm Forest | 1–2 | 1–0 | Wrong result | 0 |
🔮 EPL GW18 Algorithm-based Predictions
Man Utd vs Newcastle
Prediction: 1–1
- Man Utd creativity reduced due to missing key midfielder (Bruno) → fewer chances.
- Newcastle steady but not dominant away.
- Home advantage balanced by attacking limitations → draw.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City
Prediction: 1–2
- Man City in strong recent form (5W from last 6).
- Forest likely to defend deep at home, limiting scoreline.
- City’s quality still enough to edge a controlled away win.
Arsenal vs Brighton
Prediction: 2–0
- Arsenal strong recent defensive form and consistent home performance.
- Brighton inconsistent away and lower goal output.
- Form stability + home advantage → comfortable but not high-scoring win.
Brentford vs Bournemouth
Prediction: 2–1
- Brentford stronger at home and more direct.
- Bournemouth draw-heavy with defensive vulnerability.
- Home pressure likely decisive in a close game.
Burnley vs Everton
Prediction: 0–1
- Burnley struggling to score and low confidence.
- Everton pragmatic and capable of managing tight games.
- Away win, but narrow due to low attacking ceiling.
Liverpool vs Wolves
Prediction: 2–0
- Liverpool structurally strong despite attacking absences (Isak & Salah).
- Wolves bottom, poor recent form, low scoring threat, likely to sit deep.
- Professional home win with controlled tempo.
West Ham vs Fulham
Prediction: 1–1
- Both sides inconsistent with similar recent form profiles.
- Neither defence reliable enough for a clean sheet.
- Draw fits balance of momentum and quality.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Prediction: 1–2
- Aston Villa league-leading recent form and high confidence.
- Chelsea competitive at home but concede chances.
- Villa’s momentum outweighs home advantage.
Sunderland vs Leeds
Prediction: 1–1
- Leeds highly volatile; regression expected after high-scoring GW17.
- Sunderland organised and difficult to break down at home.
- Balanced contest → draw.
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Prediction: 2–1
- Tottenham poor recent defensive form.
- Palace stronger at home, opportunistic in attack and looking to bounce back after big loss v Leeds.
- Home advantage + Spurs’ fragility points to narrow upset.
Summary Table
| Fixture | Score Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd vs Newcastle | 1–1 | Medium |
| Nottm Forest vs Man City | 1–2 | Medium–High |
| Arsenal vs Brighton | 2–0 | High |
| Brentford vs Bournemouth | 2–1 | Medium |
| Burnley vs Everton | 0–1 | Medium |
| Liverpool vs Wolves | 2–0 | High |
| West Ham vs Fulham | 1–1 | Low |
| Chelsea vs Aston Villa | 1–2 | Medium |
| Sunderland vs Leeds | 1–1 | Low |
| Crystal Palace vs Tottenham | 2–1 | Medium |
FISO Goals is the EPL Predictions game for FISO Forum Members. Why not give it a shot?