With over half the 2025/26 season now complete (250 matches played), we’ve got enough data to meaningfully compare this campaign’s scoring patterns against the full 2024/25 Premier League season. This kind of macro trend analysis is invaluable when refining weekly score predictions, particularly around assumptions on home advantage, goal expectation, BTTS and clean sheets.

Below we summarise the headline numbers from 2024/25 (380 matches) and compare them directly to 2025/26 up to GW25 (250 matches), before pulling out the key tactical and predictive takeaways. FISO Goals is the EPL Score Predictions game for FISO Forum Members.

Home Wins vs Draws vs Away Wins
🔵 2024/25 (Full Season – 380 matches)
- Home wins: 155 (40.8%)
- Draws: 93 (24.5%)
- Away wins: 132 (34.7%)
🟣 2025/26 (After GW25 – 250 matches)
- Home wins: 110 (44.0%)
- Draws: 65 (26.0%)
- Away wins: 75 (30.0%)
📌 What’s Changed?
- Home wins are up this season (44% vs 40.8%).
- Away wins are down significantly (30% vs 34.7%).
- Draw frequency is broadly similar.
👉 This suggests home advantage has strengthened in 2025/26, which should slightly nudge predictions toward home wins where the matchup is marginal.
Most Common Scorelines
🟣 2025/26 (After GW25 – Top Results)
- 1–1 → 12%
- 2–1 → 9.2%
- 2–0 → 9.2%
- 0–0 → 6.8%
- 0–1 → 6.8%
- 1–2 → 6.8%
- 3–0 → 6.4%
- 2–2 → 6.0%
- 1–0 → 5.6%
- 3–1 → 5.6%
In 2024/25, the most common results were also clustered around 2–1, 1–1, 2–0 and 3–1, but there was a notably higher share of 4+ goal matches (see below), which slightly diluted the dominance of mid-range scorelines. The most frequent results across the whole 24/25 season were:
- 1–1 → 45 matches (11.84%)
- 2–1 (home win) → 33 matches (8.68%)
- 2–2 → 31 matches (8.16%)
- 1–0 (home win) → 29 matches (7.63%)
- 1–2 (away win) → 29 matches (7.63%)
- 0–2 (away win) → 28 matches (7.37%)
- 0–1 (away win) → 26 matches (6.84%)
- 2–0 (home win) → 21 matches (5.53%)
- 3–1 (home win) → 17 matches (4.47%)
- 0–0 → 16 matches (4.21%)
👉 The big story this season: more tight, low-margin scorelines, fewer blowouts with 2-0 and 0-0 both much more popular results so far in 2025/26 compared to the 2024/25 season.
Goals Per Match & High-Scoring Games
In 2024/25, the Premier League was unusually attack-heavy, averaging 2.93 goals per match, with 34.2% of fixtures featuring 4 or more goals. That placed last season firmly in the “high event” category, with frequent shootouts and a steady stream of 3–2, 4–1 and 4–2 scorelines.
By contrast, 2025/26 up to GW25 has cooled slightly. The league is averaging 2.79 goals per match, and only 29.2% of games have produced 4+ goals. While still a relatively entertaining scoring environment by historical EPL standards, this represents a clear step down in volatility compared to last season.
The practical implication for score prediction models is that big scorelines should be used more selectively in 2025/26. Whereas 2024/25 often rewarded aggressive 3–1 or 4–1 calls, the current season is better approached with a bias toward narrower margins (2–1, 2–0) and a greater respect for matches staying under four total goals unless form, xG trends and fixture context all strongly align.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
🔵 2024/25
- BTTS: 57.4%
🟣 2025/26 (GW25)
- BTTS: 55.6%
📌 What’s Changed?
BTTS remains remarkably stable year-on-year. The slight dip suggests:
- A touch more defensive control this season.
- Slightly more one-sided games (often driven by stronger home performances).
👉 BTTS remains a very solid default assumption in close fixtures.
Clean Sheets & Defensive Outcomes
🔵 2024/25
- Matches with at least one clean sheet: 178 (46.8%)
- Home win + CS: 71 (18.7%)
- Away win + CS: 75 (19.7%)
- 0–0 draws: 16 (4.2%)
🟣 2025/26 (GW25)
- Matches with a clean sheet: 111 (44.4%)
- Home win + CS: 55 (22.0%)
- Away win + CS: 39 (15.6%)
- 0–0 draws: 17 (6.8%)
📌 What’s Changed?
- Home clean-sheet wins have increased significantly (22% vs 18.7%).
- Away clean-sheet wins have fallen sharply (15.6% vs 19.7%).
- 0–0 draws are more common this season.
👉 This aligns with the broader theme:
stronger home performances, tighter away attacks, more cagey low-scoring games.
Big Picture: What This Means for Score Predictions
Compared to the free-scoring, away-friendly nature of 2024/25, the 2025/26 season so far shows:
- 🏠 Stronger home advantage
- ⚽ Slightly lower scoring environment
- 🔐 More home clean sheets
- 🧮 More 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 type outcomes
- 🟰 More 0–0s than last season
Practical Adjustments for Prediction Models
If you’re tuning your weekly prediction logic:
- Slightly downgrade away win probability vs last season.
- Be less aggressive with 3+ goal predictions.
- In evenly matched fixtures, 1–1 remains king.
- In strong home mismatches, 2–0 is emerging as a higher-probability default.
- Clean sheets for top home sides are more reliable than in 24/25.
Final Thought
The 2025/26 season is shaping up to be slightly more controlled, more home-leaning, and marginally lower scoring than last year. That doesn’t mean chaos is gone – it just means score predictions should now lean more towards narrow margins and structural advantages (home form, defensive solidity, and xG under/over-performance correction) rather than last season’s more open-game baseline.









