FISO FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner: Best and Worst Fixtures from GW4 to GW13

Three Gameweeks into the 2026/27 Fantasy Premier League season, we now have some early evidence about the relative strength of all 20 Premier League clubs.

The FISO Fixture Difficulty Planner (FDR) has therefore been updated for the next ten rounds of fixtures, covering GW4 to GW13.

Unlike a traditional FDR that assigns a fixed difficulty to each opponent, the FISO tool uses editable club Strength ratings. We have now adjusted our default ratings to take account of performances during the opening three Gameweeks of the season.

That produces some interesting results for FPL managers planning their next transfers.

Try the FISO Fixture Difficulty Planner:
https://www.fiso.co.uk/games/fdr/

How the FISO FDR works

Each Premier League club is given a Strength rating, with stronger teams receiving a higher number which are initially based on last season’s finishing positions.

We’ve for example adjusted our personalised FDR based on the 1st 3 GWs action so that Arsenal lead the ratings on 93, followed by Manchester City on 90. Chelsea are third on 83, while Manchester United and Liverpool are both rated 82. See screenshot below.

The difficulty of each fixture is calculated using the difference between the two teams’ Strength ratings, with an adjustment for home advantage.

Positive numbers indicate a more favourable fixture and negative numbers a more difficult one. The colour coding then ranges through nine different levels from Very easy in dark green to Brutal in dark red.

The important difference with the FISO FDR is that these Strength figures aren’t fixed. If you think we’ve underestimated or overestimated a club, change its Strength yourself and the entire fixture table recalculates instantly.

Arsenal have the outstanding GW4-GW13 schedule

Arsenal combine the highest Strength rating in the league with an excellent set of fixtures.

Their ten matches are:

GW4 Sunderland (A)
GW5 Brighton (A)
GW6 Leeds (H)
GW7 Nottingham Forest (A)
GW8 Everton (H)
GW9 Liverpool (A)
GW10 Hull (H)
GW11 Newcastle (A)
GW12 Manchester City (H)
GW13 Brentford (A)

The FDR gives Arsenal an extraordinary +25.3 Avg 3, +27.6 Avg 5 and +23.1 Avg 10.

Liverpool away in GW9 and Manchester City at home in GW12 interrupt the run, but virtually everything else is green.

Particularly attractive are Leeds at home (+31), Forest away (+31), Everton at home (+31) and Hull at home (+35).

For FPL managers, that makes Arsenal assets very difficult to ignore. It also makes their defence particularly interesting because the favourable fixtures aren’t concentrated into just two or three Gameweeks – they extend across most of the next ten.

Manchester City also have a superb long-term run

Manchester City’s opening three fixtures aren’t quite as attractive as Arsenal’s, largely because they visit Manchester United in GW4 and Liverpool in GW6.

Their Avg 3 is +11.7, but the picture improves considerably when looking further ahead.

City’s Avg 5 rises to +20.2 and their Avg 10 is +20.6, second only to Arsenal among the teams shown at the top of our FDR.

From GW7 they face:

Ipswich (H), Aston Villa (A), Brighton (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Fulham (H), Arsenal (A) and Leeds (H).

Ipswich at home receives a huge +40 rating, while Forest away (+28), Fulham at home (+30) and Leeds at home (+28) also stand out.

This illustrates why looking beyond the next couple of Gameweeks can be so valuable. A manager looking only at GW4 might not be particularly enthusiastic about City’s immediate schedule, whereas the ten-Gameweek picture is excellent.

Chelsea’s fixtures deserve attention

Chelsea are another club sitting prominently near the top of the FDR.

Their figures are:

Avg 3: +16.3
Avg 5: +18.6
Avg 10: +17.5

They start with Hull at home (+25), followed by Brentford away (+11) and Bournemouth at home (+13).

Everton away, Tottenham at home, Sunderland away, Leeds at home, Forest away and Crystal Palace at home also provide plenty of opportunities.

The obvious difficult fixture is Manchester United away in GW9, but Chelsea otherwise have one of the most consistently attractive schedules in the league.

Manchester United and Liverpool also rank well

Manchester United’s +10.9 Avg 10 puts them comfortably on the favourable side of the FDR despite some notable difficult fixtures.

They face Manchester City in GW4, Chelsea away in GW9 and Liverpool away in GW11. However, matches against Fulham, Tottenham, Leeds, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Brentford and Newcastle help compensate.

Liverpool have an Avg 10 of +9.4.

Their schedule includes favourable home fixtures against Fulham, Brighton, Manchester United and Sunderland, while Everton away in GW12 also scores well.

The tougher fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal prevent Liverpool from joining Arsenal, City and Chelsea right at the top, but the overall run remains attractive.

Bournemouth offer an interesting longer-term improvement

Bournemouth are a good example of why the three different averages are useful.

Their numbers are:

Avg 3: -5.7
Avg 5: -4.8
Avg 10: +3.2

The immediate schedule isn’t particularly attractive, with Liverpool at home in GW5 and Chelsea away in GW6.

Things subsequently improve.

Sunderland, Leeds, Ipswich, Forest, Fulham and Brighton all appear between GW7 and GW13.

Managers interested in Bournemouth assets may therefore prefer to wait rather than buying immediately.

Newcastle’s good start gives way to tougher fixtures

Newcastle have a healthy +8 Avg 3 and +7.6 Avg 5, but their Avg 10 falls to just +1.1.

The early period contains Leeds, Hull, Coventry and Crystal Palace.

Later, however, Newcastle face Arsenal, Brighton and Manchester United across GW11-GW13.

Again, the FDR highlights the difference between buying a player for the short term and expecting to hold him for ten Gameweeks.

Which clubs have the hardest schedules?

At the other end of the table, the colour coding becomes noticeably more orange and red. Here is a screenshot with our adjusted strengths based on the action over the 1st 3 GWs.

Ipswich currently have the most difficult ten-Gameweek schedule among the clubs shown in our lower-table screenshot, with:

Avg 3: -10.7
Avg 5: -15.6
Avg 10: -12.6

The standout problem is a GW7 trip to Manchester City, rated -40. Bournemouth away and Tottenham away also feature before meetings with Aston Villa and Coventry.

Nottingham Forest aren’t far behind with an Avg 10 of -10.0.

They face Arsenal away in GW7 (-31), Manchester City away in GW10 (-28) and Chelsea away in GW12 (-21).

That is a particularly uncomfortable schedule for anyone considering Forest defenders.

Leeds and Coventry also face difficult runs

Leeds have an Avg 10 of -8.9.

Their fixtures include Arsenal away (-31), Manchester United at home (-16), Chelsea away (-21) and Manchester City away (-28).

There are opportunities – notably Crystal Palace at home and Coventry at home – but they’re mixed among some of the most difficult fixtures available.

Coventry’s Avg 10 is -8.1. Brighton, Newcastle and Sunderland are among their more difficult early matches, although Crystal Palace at home and Ipswich at home provide some relief later in the run.

Hull’s fixtures look difficult despite some opportunities

Hull have:

Avg 3: -12.3
Avg 5: -9.8
Avg 10: -8.0

Chelsea away immediately stands out as difficult, while Newcastle away follows in GW5.

The biggest problem comes in GW10 when Hull travel to Arsenal, currently rated -35 by the FISO model.

However, Ipswich away in GW9 and Forest away in GW13 are considerably more appealing.

Tottenham and Fulham have plenty of red and orange

Tottenham’s Avg 10 is -6.8, with Manchester United away (-26) and Chelsea away (-27) particularly difficult.

There are some good fixtures – Coventry at home and Ipswich at home – but their overall schedule remains below average.

Fulham’s Avg 10 of -6.4 includes Liverpool away (-22), Manchester United at home (-18) and a particularly difficult trip to Manchester City in GW11 (-30).

Aston Villa (-5.1) and Crystal Palace (-4.9) also sit on the difficult side of the ten-Gameweek averages.

Use the averages according to your FPL strategy

One of the most useful parts of the FISO tool is having Avg 3, Avg 5 and Avg 10 alongside one another.

They answer three different questions.

Avg 3 is useful when considering a short-term transfer or planning towards an imminent Wildcard.

Avg 5 gives a better picture for normal transfer planning.

Avg 10 is particularly useful when assessing players you expect to hold for a substantial period – premium players, goalkeepers and defenders being obvious examples.

A team can look very attractive according to one measure and much less appealing according to another. Bournemouth and Newcastle are good examples in the current FDR.

Don’t agree with our Strength ratings? Change them

The default ratings are FISO’s assessment following the opening three Gameweeks, but they’re deliberately not presented as definitive.

Perhaps you think Arsenal at 93 are too strong.

Maybe Manchester City should be closer to Arsenal.

Perhaps one of the promoted clubs has impressed you enough to deserve a substantial upgrade.

Simply change the relevant Strength number and the FDR recalculates the fixture difficulty scores, colours and averages.

You can also alter the home-advantage setting, sort the table according to different periods and share your customised FDR with other managers.

That is the main idea behind the FISO planner: rather than telling every FPL manager exactly how difficult a fixture is, it provides the tools to build an FDR around your own assessment of the Premier League.

FPL planning for GW4 and beyond

Based on FISO’s current Strength ratings, Arsenal are the clear standout for the next ten Gameweeks, with Manchester City and Chelsea completing an impressive top three.

Manchester United and Liverpool also have favourable overall schedules.

At the opposite end, Ipswich, Nottingham Forest, Leeds, Coventry and Hull have considerably more difficult fixture runs.

But fixture difficulty is only one part of FPL selection. Expected minutes, price, attacking involvement, clean-sheet prospects, injuries and form all need to be considered alongside the schedule.

The FDR provides the fixture part of that equation – and, importantly, lets you change the assumptions yourself.

Explore the updated FISO Fixture Difficulty Planner for GW4-GW13:
https://www.fiso.co.uk/games/fdr/

Discuss your FPL team and the new FDR ratings on the FISO FPL Forum:
https://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/viewforum.php?f=18

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Fantasy NFL 2026: 5 Breakout Candidates to Watch From Week 1


Source

Established stars shape fantasy football drafts, but breakout candidates can change a season once their workloads become clear. Identifying those players requires more than simply chasing last year’s statistics.

Opportunity, scoring format and weekly matchups all influence how quickly emerging players become relevant. The 2026 season brings several intriguing options across different positions.

Luther Burden III, Jadarian Price, Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton and Jaxson Dart each offer fantasy football managers a different route toward potential early-season production from Week 1 onward.

Luther Burden Offers Week 1 Target Upside

Luther Burden III enters Year 2 in Chicago after flashing considerable potential as a rookie. His 2025 production grew as the season progressed, and his ability to create after the catch makes increased target volume particularly interesting for fantasy football managers.

That progression also provides useful context when comparing fantasy projections with betting odds for the NFL. Burden’s weekly production will depend heavily on how frequently Caleb Williams looks his way and whether those opportunities arrive in scoring positions.

Fantasy football managers should consider draft position alongside expected volume. Burden enters 2026 with considerable breakout expectations without yet belonging among the established elite receivers. His growing involvement creates an intriguing ceiling, although competition for targets remains relevant when projecting weekly production.

That makes him a mid-round receiver with flex value and the potential to develop into a weekly WR2-level option rather than the foundation of a fantasy football roster. If his late-2025 involvement carries into September, Burden could quickly earn more prominent lineup consideration.

Jadarian Price Emerges as a Mid-Round Upside Pick

Jadarian Price enters Seattle with immediate fantasy football relevance. The first-round rookie joins a backfield without Kenneth Walker III, while Zach Charbonnet begins the season unavailable as he continues recovering from the ACL injury suffered last season.

Seattle expects Price, George Holani and Emanuel Wilson to share the early workload. That makes Price more than a conventional handcuff because touches should be available immediately, although the exact division of carries remains uncertain entering Week 1.

Fantasy football managers can consider Price as a mid-round upside selection. His first-round draft status provides another indication that Seattle could view him as an important part of the backfield, particularly while Charbonnet remains unavailable.

In most standard 10- and 12-team leagues, Price is already being drafted, so the more relevant question is how large his Week 1 role becomes rather than whether he should be added from waivers. Fantasy football managers should watch snap share, carries and passing-down usage rather than reacting solely to rushing yards.

Ladd McConkey Climbs Fantasy Draft Boards

Ladd McConkey already has a substantial NFL résumé entering Year 3 with the Los Angeles Chargers. After recording 82 receptions and 1,149 yards as a rookie, he remains one of Justin Herbert’s established targets despite experiencing a statistical decline during his second season.

That history creates an interesting fantasy football profile. McConkey’s reception volume naturally carries greater importance in PPR formats, where consistent intermediate targets can provide production even when touchdowns or explosive plays are absent.

Draft position determines how fantasy football managers should approach that consistency. McConkey becomes particularly useful when an early selection has already provided a higher-ceiling receiver and dependable weekly volume is needed alongside that player.

Standard formats yield different calculations because receptions themselves do not generate points. Downfield gains and touchdowns consequently carry greater weight.

Fantasy football managers should therefore watch McConkey’s early target share under Mike McDaniel. Those opportunities can indicate whether his 2026 production is moving toward his impressive rookie level or settling closer to his second-year output, making league format particularly important when assessing his draft position.

Omarion Hampton Offers Workload and Touchdown Upside

Omarion Hampton enters his second Chargers season with an opportunity to become a more dependable fantasy football contributor. Injuries limited him to nine games as a rookie, but he still produced 545 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

His fantasy football appeal is closely tied to scoring opportunities. Hampton possesses the physical running style needed for short-yardage situations, while the Chargers have rebuilt portions of their offensive line and introduced Mike McDaniel’s running system.

But his fantasy value is not dependent on touchdowns alone. Hampton also caught 32 passes for 192 yards and a receiving touchdown in those nine games, giving him a potentially meaningful receiving floor alongside his rushing workload.

Fantasy football managers should monitor red-zone carries particularly closely. Consistent work near the goal line can sustain useful weekly totals even when overall rushing yardage is modest. His receiving usage should be monitored just as closely, because passing-game involvement can help support his weekly value even when touchdowns do not arrive.

That makes Hampton’s early usage more informative than simply evaluating his yards per carry. If he receives most of the Chargers’ goal-line work alongside a substantial rushing workload and continued passing-game opportunities, fantasy football managers could increasingly view him as a regular starter.

Jaxson Dart Offers Low-End QB1 Upside

Jaxson Dart enters Year 2 with the New York Giants after demonstrating why rushing quarterbacks attract fantasy football attention. He finished as a QB1 in nine of his 12 rookie starts, with his mobility providing another scoring route when passing production fluctuated.

That rushing component creates an appealing weekly floor for fantasy football managers. Dart can accumulate points even when his passing yardage remains relatively modest. His 2026 draft position, that said, has already moved him beyond pure streaming territory in many leagues. He is being treated more like a low-end QB1 or high-upside starter than a quarterback managers simply rotate in and out based on matchup.

Defenses capable of containing quarterbacks inside the pocket may reduce his rushing opportunities, while opponents vulnerable to scrambling can make Dart considerably more appealing. Fantasy football managers should also monitor whether the Giants encourage him to protect himself more frequently.

Dart can still be used selectively by matchup in shallower leagues, but fantasy football managers should not assume he will be readily available as a streamer. Where alternatives exist, managers can compare his matchup against their rostered quarterback rather than automatically starting him.

Early Usage Will Shape Fantasy Decisions

These five players are not entering 2026 from the same starting point. Burden and Price fit the traditional breakout profile, while McConkey is looking to rebound, Hampton already carries strong starter-level expectations and Dart is increasingly being drafted as a potential QB1.

That said, these candidates become considerably easier to evaluate once real workloads replace preseason projections. Fantasy football managers can follow snap counts, targets, touches and scoring opportunities from Week 1 to develop a clearer picture of which emerging players deserve regular lineup consideration as the 2026 season develops.

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FPL & FanTeam Gameweek 1 Review: Early Stars, Value Picks and Price-Rise Watch

The opening weekend of the 2026/27 Premier League season has already given fantasy managers plenty to think about. There were surprises, strong performances from several cheaper players and, perhaps most importantly at this early stage of the season, some potential bargains beginning to emerge.

For FPL managers, attention now turns quickly towards transfers and the first price changes of the campaign. For FanTeam managers, where there is less reason to chase short-term price movements, Gameweek 1 instead gives us our first opportunity to assess which players are providing the best points per million.

It is worth remembering that one Gameweek is a very small sample. Nevertheless, early-season information can be particularly valuable because player roles, new signings and unexpected starters are only just becoming apparent.

The Premier League’s opening weekend also produced some major surprises, including newly promoted Hull beating Manchester United 2-0, Leeds winning 1-0 at Nottingham Forest and Brentford defeating Spurs 3-0. Manchester City needed late goals to overcome Bournemouth 2-1, while Liverpool drew 2-2 at Newcastle.

FPL GW1: don’t ignore the price market

The first few weeks of an FPL season are unusual because transfers aren’t only about points. Team value can matter too.

Once millions of managers start moving towards the same emerging players, prices can begin changing quickly. Losing £0.1m on one player while a planned replacement gains £0.1m can effectively turn a straightforward transfer into one that is no longer affordable.

The latest FPL price-change indicator on Tuesday 25 August has two players standing out as particularly likely risers:

PlayerClubFPL PricePrice-change progress
Maxim De CuyperBrighton£4.5m+120.0%
Mamadou SangaréBrentford£5.5m+103.7%

Both are currently shown as “Very likely to rise”.

FPL price changes take place overnight, so managers already intending to buy either player should pay particular attention before the next update.

De Cuyper – the early defensive bandwagon

Maxim De Cuyper is the clearest name on the current price-rise list.

Brighton’s opening weekend has propelled the £4.5m defender into the spotlight and his transfer activity has already pushed him to +120% on the price-change indicator.

That is exactly the profile that can create an early FPL bandwagon: inexpensive enough to fit easily into squads, a big opening score and potentially capable of producing returns at both ends of the pitch.

There is also an interesting crossover with FanTeam.

De Cuyper scored 15.3 FanTeam points in GW1. At a FanTeam price of £5.0m, that equates to an exceptional 3.1 points per million – joint highest in the entire game after GW1.

The key question is whether he is simply GW1’s big scorer or a player who can offer sustainable value. FPL managers should avoid buying purely because a price is rising, but anyone who already wanted De Cuyper has an additional reason not to wait too long.

A word of caution on Brighton

Brighton’s emphatic 4-0 opening-day victory over Aston Villa is likely to attract plenty of FPL investment, with De Cuyper at the front of the queue after his huge GW1 return. However, managers should be wary of simply chasing last week’s points. Brighton travel to Chelsea in GW2, which is a considerably tougher test and reduces the immediate appeal of bringing in their defensive players purely for the next Gameweek. De Cuyper’s potential price rise adds some urgency for managers who already want him longer term, but the Chelsea fixture means there is also a perfectly reasonable case for waiting rather than jumping aboard the Brighton bandwagon after just one match.

Sangaré – another possible overnight riser

Brentford midfielder Mamadou Sangaré is the other player currently beyond the 100% threshold, sitting at +103.7%.

Brentford’s 3-0 victory over Spurs was one of the outstanding results of GW1, and Sangaré was among their standout performers.

Again, the FanTeam numbers back up the attraction. Sangaré produced 9.7 points and costs only £4.5m there, giving him a GW1 PPM of 2.2.

There is an important distinction between the two games, however. His FPL price is £5.5m according to the current price-change table, whereas FanTeam managers can obtain him for £4.5m.

That potentially makes Sangaré even more interesting as a FanTeam budget enabler.

Other FPL players attracting transfers

Several Arsenal players appear prominently on the price-change screen, although none is currently classified as very likely to change.

Ødegaard is at +77.0%, while Calafiori is +87.0%. João Pedro is another player attracting buyers at +70.8%.

At the opposite end are players being transferred out heavily. Martinelli (-94.9%), Gyökeres (-87.6%), Sarr (-78.8%), Dowman (-78.2%), Hincapié (-76.6%) and Amad (-68.8%) are among those showing substantial downward ownership movement.

Those figures should not automatically trigger transfers. The danger after GW1 is chasing last week’s points while selling good players simply because they blanked or failed to start.

This is especially relevant with premiums. Haaland, for example, blanked against Bournemouth, but Manchester City still won 2-1 and his long-term fantasy potential has obviously not disappeared because of one match.

FanTeam GW1: points per million reveals some unlikely leaders

FanTeam’s GW1 data gives us another way of analysing the opening weekend.

Rather than simply sorting players by total points, FISO’s FanTeam player table can be sorted by Points Per Million (PPM). This measures the return a player has generated relative to his price.

After GW1 the leading value players are:

RankPlayerClubPosPriceGW1 ptsPPM
1AjayiHullDEF£4.0m12.33.1
2De CuyperBrightonDEF£5.0m15.33.1
3KayodeBrentfordDEF£4.5m12.32.7
4MendyHullDEF£4.5m12.32.7
5Lewis-PotterBrentfordDEF£5.0m12.32.5
6HinshelwoodBrightonMID£6.0m13.32.2
7SangaréBrentfordMID£4.5m9.72.2
8TzolakisHullGKP£4.5m8.82.0
9KelleherBrentfordGKP£4.5m8.31.8
10JaneltBrentfordMID£5.0m8.31.7

The striking feature is the dominance of defenders.

Five of the first six players are classified as defenders, with Hull, Brighton and Brentford accounting for all of them.

That doesn’t necessarily mean we should rush to build a defence consisting entirely of GW1’s PPM leaders. Clean sheets are inherently volatile, and a defender’s PPM can change dramatically following one shutout or one goal.

But it does reinforce an important fantasy principle: relatively inexpensive defenders from teams capable of keeping clean sheets can provide the budget savings needed to afford premium attacking players.

Brentford emerge as an early FanTeam value source

Brentford deserve particular attention.

Kayode (£4.5m) returned 12.3 points, Lewis-Potter (£5.0m) also scored 12.3 and Kelleher (£4.5m) collected 8.3.

Sangaré and Janelt then appear among the leading midfield values.

That gives FanTeam managers several different routes into Brentford rather than simply chasing one standout player.

For managers prepared to use a block-defence strategy, Kelleher combined with one or two Brentford defenders is particularly interesting. Their 3-0 victory over Spurs immediately rewarded anyone prepared to concentrate defensive investment rather than spreading it across several clubs.

Hull provide the surprise bargains

Very few fantasy managers would have expected Hull players to dominate an early-season value table.

But their 2-0 victory over Manchester United has done exactly that.

Ajayi sits joint top of the FanTeam PPM rankings after scoring 12.3 points from a £4.0m price. Mendy produced the same score for £4.5m, while £4.5m goalkeeper Tzolakis returned 8.8.

The temptation is obvious. The caution is equally obvious.

One excellent defensive result against Manchester United does not suddenly make Hull one of the Premier League’s strongest defensive sides. The promoted club’s players may nevertheless prove extremely useful if they continue to offer starting players at £4.0m–£4.5m.

Brighton’s GW1 stars

Brighton provide arguably the most interesting combination of high scores and potential longer-term assets.

De Cuyper’s 15.3 was the highest FanTeam score among the leading PPM players, while midfielder Hinshelwood produced 13.3 points for £6.0m.

Brighton’s strong start also produced several more players further down the FanTeam value rankings, including Verbruggen, Dunk, Boscagli and Vuskovic.

De Cuyper is therefore one of the most intriguing players across both games after GW1 although the much tougher fixture at Chelsea in GW2 should be borne in mind.

In FPL he is threatening an immediate rise from £4.5m. In FanTeam he has started with 15.3 points from a £5.0m price.

Some established names still delivered

The FanTeam PPM rankings aren’t entirely populated by cheap players.

Cole Palmer looked in scintillating form and returned 10.7 points from his reasonable £8.5m FanTeam price. Chelsea won a lively 3-2 match at Fulham, with Palmer among the scorers alongside João Pedro and Morgan Rogers.

Manchester City’s defenders also appear relatively high in the value rankings. Guéhi and Gvardiol both returned 8.3 FanTeam points at £6.0m thanks to their goals.

Arsenal defenders White and Calafiori also feature prominently thanks to their assists, with White producing 9.3 points at £5.5m and Calafiori the same score at £6.0m.

These players may not match the spectacular PPM of a £4.0m defender who scores 12 points, but established defenders from stronger clubs could prove more reliable over a much longer period.

Don’t build a GW2 team entirely from GW1 points

The first Gameweek always creates temptation. Someone scores 12 or 15 points and suddenly looks essential. Someone else blanks and managers immediately want rid of him. That is rarely the best way to play either FPL or FanTeam.

What GW1 has given us is new information. We now know more about the EPL starting line-ups, formations, set-piece responsibilities, attacking roles and the competitiveness of newly promoted sides.

The challenge is separating information that might be sustainable from what was simply a one-match event.

In FPL there is the additional complication of team value. De Cuyper and Sangaré are the two players who require particular attention today because the current indicators suggest both could rise imminently.

FanTeam managers can afford to concentrate more heavily on footballing considerations. The first PPM table suggests Brighton and Brentford could contain some genuinely useful value options, while Hull’s budget players are worth monitoring rather than automatically assuming their opening-week returns will continue.

Above all, GW1 has reinforced the basic construction principle for fantasy squads: identify genuine value at the cheaper price points and use the savings to accommodate the premium players capable of producing the biggest scores and becoming strong captaincy options.

One Gameweek isn’t enough to tell us who those season-long bargains will be – but it has given us the first set of clues.

Calculating Outs: The Basic Probability Every TCG Player Should Know

There’s a moment every card player knows. You’re one card away. You need a removal spell, or a fourth land, or literally anything that answers the thing sitting across the table. You draw. It isn’t that.

Whether that was bad luck or a bad deck is a question you can actually answer, and it doesn’t take much maths. Understanding outs is probably the single biggest jump in play quality available to a casual player, and it costs nothing.

What an Out Actually Is

An out is any card in your deck that solves the problem in front of you.

The important word is “any”. Newer players tend to count one specific card, which is why the numbers feel so grim. Experienced players count everything that does the job. If you need to deal with a creature, your outs aren’t just your one removal spell. They’re every removal spell, every bounce effect, every board wipe, every blocker big enough to hold the line, and every tutor that can find one of those.

Counting properly usually turns three outs into nine or ten, and that changes the answer enormously.

The One Calculation You Need

The formal tool is the hypergeometric distribution, which sounds intimidating and isn’t. It answers the question: if my deck has this many cards, and this many of them are what I want, what’s the chance of seeing at least one in the next few draws?

You don’t need to compute it by hand. Plenty of free calculators exist, and any of them will do. What matters is developing intuition for the shape of the answer.

The rough rule for a single draw is simple division. Ten outs in a forty-card library is a one in four chance. Ten outs in a ninety-card library is closer to one in nine.

Numbers Worth Having in Your Head

In a 60-card constructed deck, if you run four copies of a card, you’ll see at least one in your opening seven roughly 40 percent of the time. That’s a number worth sitting with, because most players assume four copies means they’ll reliably have it. They won’t. They’ll have it a bit less than half the time.

Push it to eight functionally similar cards and that figure climbs to roughly 65 percent. Twelve gets you to around 80 percent.

The pattern is the point. Each additional copy helps less than the one before, and getting from “usually” to “almost always” costs far more slots than getting from “rarely” to “usually”.

Why Commander Feels So Different

In a 99-card singleton deck, you can’t run four copies of anything. One copy of a card is a genuinely unreliable plan, and this is why Commander games feel so swingy compared to constructed formats.

Say you want a specific card by turn five, having seen roughly twelve cards. One copy in 99 gives you somewhere around a 12 percent chance. That’s not a plan, that’s a hope.

Which explains why good Commander decks look the way they do. They’re built around a commander you can always access, plus a lot of redundancy, plus tutors that turn one card into many.

Redundancy Beats Tutoring

New players discover tutors and want to jam eight of them. It rarely works as well as expected, because a tutor costs you a card and often costs you a turn.

Running eight cards that all do roughly the same job is usually stronger than running four plus four ways to find them. It’s faster, it’s cheaper, and the maths is better. Save tutors for effects that genuinely have no substitute.

Mulligans Change the Maths

The London mulligan, where you draw seven and put cards on the bottom, is more powerful than most casual players use it as.

If your deck needs a specific piece to function, mulliganing to look for it is often correct even at the cost of a card. A six-card hand that does what your deck wants to do beats a seven-card hand that does nothing.

The practical version: know before you shuffle up what your hand needs to contain. If it doesn’t, ship it. Players lose far more games to keeping bad sevens than to mulliganing too aggressively.

Variance Is Not Bad Luck

Here’s the mindset bit, and it matters more than any calculation.

If you have a 70 percent chance to find your answer and you don’t, you didn’t get unlucky in any meaningful sense. Three times in ten, that happens. It’s the deck working as designed.

Players who understand this stop tilting, and they stop making bad deck changes after single games. One loss tells you almost nothing. Ten games with a pattern tells you something. The whole reason casinos and bookmakers are profitable businesses is that most people badly misjudge how normal a streak of bad outcomes is, and the same misjudgement is what makes people rip apart a perfectly good deck after one rough evening.

Betting on trading card games has grown with the competitive scene, as Magic, Pokémon, and Yu-Gi-Oh! tournaments now draw enough viewership to support match odds and outright winner markets. Since results hinge on deck composition, draw variance, and shifting metagames, informed punters study player histories and format trends rather than backing names alone. Markets remain niche, so most action sits with a handful of sportsbooks and the best usdt casino platforms with fast tether deposits and withdrawals that have added esports sections. Stick to licensed operators and set deposit limits before staking.

Try It With Your Own Deck

Pick one card you always want in your opening hand. Count every card in your deck that does the same job, not just the exact one. Put those two numbers into a free hypergeometric calculator with a draw of seven.

If the answer is under 50 percent and your deck genuinely needs that effect early, you’re short. Add more, or add cards that do something similar.

That one exercise will improve most casual decks more than any single card purchase. Bring the list down to the shop and someone will happily talk through what else does the job.

FanTeam 2026/27: The FISO Team Reveal

The new Premier League season is almost here, which means it is time to lock in our FISO squad for FanTeam’s 2026/27 EPL Season Game.

The headline £20 Season Game has a minimum guaranteed prize pool of £65,000, with £13,000 guaranteed to first place. There is no late registration, so teams need to be entered before Arsenal v Coventry gets the season underway on Friday. We have spent £99.5m of the £100m budget and are starting Gameweek 1 in a 3-5-2.

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford (£5.0m) starts for us, with Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m) providing cover.

We like Pickford as a dependable long-term option and Everton’s home meeting with Crystal Palace is enough to give him the nod in GW1 with Everton having a softer run of opening fixtures.

Defence

Our back three is:

Gabriel (£6.5m) – Neco Williams (£5.0m) – Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.5m)

Gabriel is the premium pick and looks particularly attractive at his FanTeam price. Arsenal begin at home to Coventry, while his threat from set pieces gives him routes to points at both ends of the pitch.

Williams offers a little more attacking potential, while Branthwaite gives us a reasonably priced route into the Everton defence.

Maxence Lacroix (£4.5m) and Adrien Truffert (£5.0m) complete the defensive unit on the bench.

Midfield

This is where we have invested heavily.

Bruno Fernandes (£10.5m) is one of our favourite FanTeam picks and takes the vice-captaincy for Gameweek 1.

Alongside him are Cole Palmer (£8.5m), Bruno Guimarães (£7.0m), Ismaïla Sarr (£6.5m) and Emi Buendía (£6.0m).

Palmer and Fernandes provide the premium attacking threat, while the other three allow us to field a strong five-man midfield without compromising the rest of the squad.

Forwards

There was never much doubt over our first forward.

Erling Haaland (£12.5m) leads the line and gets the captain’s armband for Manchester City’s home fixture against Bournemouth.

Alongside him is Igor Thiago (£8.0m), who begins with Brentford at home to Spurs.

Will Osula (£5.5m) is our third forward and starts the campaign on the bench.

There are certainly a few positions we will be watching closely over the opening weeks, but we are happy with the balance: a strong premium core, plenty invested in midfield and enough value picks to leave £0.5m in the bank.

FanTeam managers receive one free transfer per Gameweek, with unused transfers able to be carried forward, so there is no need to chase every early bandwagon immediately. The game also includes two Wildcards across the season.

With £65,000 guaranteed in the main £20 contest, now is the time to get your squad entered and see if you can beat the FISO team over the course of the season. FanTeam’s EPL Season Game is available to players aged 18 and over. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly. For more discussion visit FISO’s FanTeam forum.

FISO FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner 2026/27 – Plan Your Opening Gameweeks

The 2026/27 Fantasy Premier League season is almost here, and with the new Premier League fixtures confirmed, FPL managers can start planning their opening squads whether it be for FPL or FanTeam’s £65k fantasy game.

Fixture difficulty is always an important part of pre-season planning. A player might look attractive in isolation, but a difficult opening run can considerably reduce his appeal. Conversely, identifying clubs with several favourable fixtures can help managers find defenders with clean-sheet potential, attacking players capable of producing early returns and useful lower-priced options.

To help with that process, two months ago in June, FISO launched its new interactive Fixture Difficulty Planner (FDR) covering the opening ten Gameweeks of the 2026/27 Premier League season.

Try the FISO Fixture Difficulty Planner:
https://www.fiso.co.uk/games/fdr/

The Premier League season begins on Friday 21 August with Arsenal hosting promoted Coventry City and runs through to the final round on Sunday 30 May 2027.

What is Fixture Difficulty Rating?

Fixture Difficulty Rating – usually shortened to FDR – provides a quick visual indication of how difficult a team’s forthcoming fixtures are likely to be.

The official FPL system rates fixtures from one to five, with one representing the easiest fixtures and five the hardest. The Premier League says its FDR uses formulas incorporating Opta data together with teams’ recent home and away form.

FDR can be particularly useful when looking beyond an individual Gameweek.

For example, an FPL manager deciding between two similarly priced defenders might discover that one has a significantly better run over the next five matches. Likewise, a run of favourable fixtures could strengthen the case for doubling up on a particular team’s defence or investing in one of their attackers.

The FISO tool takes that idea further by allowing managers to create their own assessment of team strength.

Why FISO’s FDR is different

There is an obvious problem with any fixed Fixture Difficulty Rating: football supporters don’t necessarily agree about how strong every team is.

A club rated as a difficult opponent at the beginning of the season could lose key players, suffer injuries or simply perform below expectations. Another team might make several strong signings and prove considerably better than initially expected.

The FISO Fixture Difficulty Planner therefore makes team Strength editable.

The initial ratings are based on performances from the 2025/26 season, but they are only intended as a sensible starting point.

If you think a team is stronger or weaker than the default rating, simply change its Strength figure.

The complete FDR immediately recalculates.

That means you aren’t restricted to somebody else’s opinion of fixture difficulty – you can create your own.

Home advantage is included – and adjustable

Playing Arsenal at the Emirates shouldn’t have exactly the same difficulty as playing Arsenal at home.

The FISO model therefore incorporates home advantage into its calculations.

The default Home Advantage setting is 2, but this is also adjustable.

Managers who believe home advantage should have a greater influence can increase it. Those who think the difference is relatively small can reduce it.

Again, the entire fixture grid recalculates automatically.

Nine colour bands make fixture runs easy to spot

Rather than relying on only a few difficulty categories, the FISO FDR uses additional colour shades to provide greater separation between fixtures.

At a glance, managers can identify:

  • favourable fixture runs in shades of green;
  • relatively neutral fixtures through the middle of the scale;
  • increasingly difficult matches moving through orange and red.

Each fixture also displays its underlying difficulty figure, providing more information than colour alone.

The result is particularly useful when scanning several Gameweeks simultaneously.

Compare the next 3, 5 or 10 Gameweeks

One easy fixture isn’t necessarily a good reason to buy an FPL player.

What happens afterwards is often more important.

The FISO planner therefore calculates rolling difficulty figures for:

Avg 3 – the opening three Gameweeks

Avg 5 – the opening five Gameweeks

Avg 10 – the entire period covered by the planner

This makes it much easier to distinguish between a team with one attractive match and a club embarking upon a genuinely favourable run.

The Premier League itself recommends looking at fixture difficulty over a period rather than concentrating solely on an individual match, and its pre-season analysis has highlighted the value of planning across the opening four-to-six Gameweeks.

Sort the table to find the best fixture runs

The FISO FDR isn’t simply a static fixture chart.

Managers can sort the teams according to different periods, making it possible to identify the clubs with the strongest schedules for the part of the season that matters to their own FPL strategy.

That could be particularly useful when building a Gameweek 1 squad.

You might, for example, prioritise the first three Gameweeks if you’re expecting an aggressive early Wildcard, while another manager intending to hold their initial squad for longer may be much more interested in the five or ten-Gameweek ratings.

Save and share your own FDR

One of the most useful features is the ability to share your customised rankings.

After changing the Strength ratings to reflect your own view of the Premier League teams, the planner can generate a shareable version.

That makes it possible to post your FDR on the FISO FPL Forum and compare it with other managers.

Think Manchester United should be rated higher?

Think one of the promoted clubs is being underestimated?

Adjust the numbers, see what happens to the fixtures and share your version with other FPL managers.

Which teams have attractive early fixtures?

The official Premier League FDR has already identified Manchester City and Manchester United among the teams with favourable schedules over the opening six Gameweeks.

Manchester City’s early schedule, for example, contains home matches against Bournemouth, Coventry and Sunderland in the first five Gameweeks, along with a trip to Crystal Palace. The official FPL analysis gives City an average FDR of 2.8 over GW1–5.

Arsenal, meanwhile, start the season at home to promoted Coventry before facing Aston Villa away and Chelsea at home. Their first six also include Sunderland, Brighton and Leeds.

But that’s where the editable FISO ratings become useful.

Do you consider Coventry significantly weaker than the rest of the Premier League? Increase the gap.

Do you think another club’s summer recruitment makes them much stronger than their 2025/26 finishing position suggests? Increase their Strength.

The fixture colours and rolling averages change accordingly.

Why only GW1–10?

The FISO tool deliberately concentrates on the opening ten Gameweeks.

The main purpose is to help FPL managers with their pre-season squad selection and early-season planning.

There is also little point pretending that the fixture calendar will remain untouched throughout the campaign. Television selections, domestic cups and European competitions can all affect scheduling as the season develops.

Restricting the planner to GW1–10 therefore keeps the tool focused on the period when it should be most useful: selecting that initial 15-man squad and planning the first few transfers of the new season.

Start planning your 2026/27 FPL squad

Fixtures shouldn’t be the only factor when selecting an FPL player. Price, expected minutes, attacking potential, clean-sheet prospects, set pieces and individual form all matter.

But favourable fixtures can make a good FPL asset considerably more attractive.

The new FISO Fixture Difficulty Planner provides a quick way of finding those opportunities – while allowing you to decide for yourself just how strong each Premier League team really is.

Use the FISO FPL Fixture Difficulty Planner:
https://www.fiso.co.uk/games/fdr/

And if you want to discuss your ratings, opening squad or 2026/27 FPL strategy with other managers, head over to the FISO FPL Forum.

Can Bruno Fernandes enhance his reputation as the Premier League’s assist king?

(Stock no: 2249024643)

Bruno Fernandes finished last season with more assists in a single Premier League campaign than any player in the competition’s history, a remarkable achievement for a player already firmly established as one of the division’s most creative midfielders.

His numbers have only improved as the seasons have gone by, rather than tapering off as some expected once he entered his 30s. Anyone checking Manchester United odds this season will find Fernandes central to almost every conversation about United’s attacking output.

Fernandes has been Manchester United’s most reliable creative outlet for several years now, but last season took his influence on the team to an entirely new level, one that will be difficult for even the division’s other elite midfielders to match.

A record breaking 2025-26 season

Fernandes registered 21 assists in 35 Premier League appearances last season, breaking the all-time record of 20 previously shared by Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne, with his 21st assist arriving on the final day against Brighton to confirm the milestone.

He added nine goals of his own and was named the division’s Player of the Season, while United’s overall improvement, finishing third after a 15th place campaign the year before, gave him forwards genuinely capable of finishing the chances he created.

Career numbers since joining from Sporting

Fernandes arrived from Sporting CP in January 2020 for an initial fee in the region of £47m and has gone on to win the FA Cup and EFL Cup with United, alongside domestic honours in Portugal before his move. He has taken on the captaincy at Old Trafford and become the club’s primary penalty taker, converting 55 of his 60 career spot kicks for a conversion rate above 91%.

For those following football betting odds markets on individual awards each season, Fernandes has been a fixture near the top of the assists charts for almost every year he has been at the club, regardless of where United have finished in the table.

What makes him such an effective player

Fernandes combines relentless work rate with genuine range as a passer, capable of picking out teammates with both short combination play and longer diagonal balls into space. His willingness to take on shooting and creative responsibility in equal measure, reflected in his high shot volume alongside his assist numbers, makes him difficult for opponents to plan around, since he poses a threat from open play, set pieces and the penalty spot alike.

That combination of end product and sheer workload across every phase of a match is rare even among the Premier League’s other elite creative midfielders.

Can he do it again this season

Repeating a record-breaking season is rarely straightforward, and Fernandes will need his supporting cast, particularly forwards like Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha, to continue converting the chances he creates at a similar rate.

Age is also a factor to monitor, with Fernandes now past his 30th birthday, though his numbers last season showed no obvious sign of decline and, if anything, suggested a player getting better with age and experience.

If United’s improved form under Michael Carrick continues, Fernandes has every chance of extending his reputation as the Premier League’s most creative midfielder even further this season.

What 11,658 World Cup predictions taught us about calling football scores

By Paul Morris, founder of Guess a Game

This summer I ran a free score predictor for the World Cup at guessagame.com. 131 players called all 104 games — 11,658 predictions in total, every one of them settled against the real results. Now the confetti has been swept up in New Jersey, the data tells a story about how football fans actually predict: what we get right, where we kid ourselves, and what “good” really looks like in a prediction league.

If you play score predictors — Super 6, Kicktipp, a spreadsheet with your mates — some of these numbers might change how you pick.

The one-in-eleven rule

Across the whole tournament, 9.1% of predictions nailed the exact score. That’s the honest baseline: play a full World Cup and roughly one pick in eleven lands perfectly. Calling the result (win, draw or defeat, 55.3%) is only a little better than a mildly educated coin flip.

The spread between players is where it gets interesting. Among the 107 players who predicted at least 80 games, the best result-caller hit 70% and the worst managed 28% — worse than picking home wins every time. Our exact-score champion landed 20 perfect scores from 103 games, nearly one in five. Over a hundred-game sample that’s not luck; that’s someone who understands what scorelines football actually produces.

Which brings us to what most of us get wrong.

The 2-1 reflex and draw blindness

The most-predicted scoreline in our data was 2-1 — picked 1,491 times, ahead of 1-1, 2-0 and 1-2. Fans love 2-1: it feels specific, it hedges towards excitement, it says “I think they’ll win but I’m no mug.”

Meanwhile, 28% of group games ended in a draw — but only 21% of predictions were draws. Almost every player in our league systematically under-picked the most boring outcome in football, in a group stage that averaged 2.99 goals a game. If you take one number from this article into your own prediction league, take that one: you are probably not picking enough draws either.

The games nobody saw coming

The beauty of settling every prediction is you can rank the tournament’s shocks by how few people called them:

            •           Spain 0-0 Cabo Verde — called by 1% of players. The eventual champions, held goalless by the tournament’s smallest nation. The single most unpredicted result of the World Cup.

            •           Uruguay 2-2 Cabo Verde — 3%. Cabo Verde again. No one learned.

            •           Qatar 1-1 Switzerland — 5%.

            •           Portugal 1-1 DR Congo — 5%.

            •           England 0-0 Ghana — 6%. England fans will not need reminding.

            •           Ecuador 2-1 Germany — 6%. The result that detonated a thousand brackets.

Notice the pattern: five of the six biggest shocks were draws. Draw blindness isn’t just a leak; it’s where prediction leagues are won and lost.

At the other end, the most predictable games of the tournament: 97% of players called France beating Iraq (3-0), 96% had Spain over Saudi Arabia (4-0), and 95% backed Germany against Curaçao — though precisely nobody suggested it would finish 7-1.

Knockout football is (slightly) easier to predict

You might expect knockout games between well-matched sides to be harder to call. The opposite happened: exact-score accuracy rose from 8.4% in the groups to 10.8% in the knockouts. Once the minnows go home, football gets more conservative and scorelines cluster — 1-0s and 2-1s — which is exactly where predictors live. (The France–England third-place game, a ten-goal 4-6 lunacy won by England, is the exception that proves it.)

The final was the coin flip it deserved to be: 47% of players had Spain beating Argentina, and just 7% called the exact 1-0. The most popular picks were 2-1 and 1-2 — that reflex again.

Then the new season started, and everyone got humbled

Guess a Game now runs season-long predictors for the Premier League, English Championship and Scottish Premiership, so the World Cup class of 2026 has rolled straight into the 2026/27 season. Early verdict: club football in August is chaos.

In the Championship’s opening round — eleven games at 2.91 goals each — our players called just 24% of results correctly, with two exact scores between them. That’s half their World Cup accuracy. Portsmouth 1-3 QPR, Wolves 2-2 Blackburn, four different 2-1s: promoted, relegated and rebuilt squads that nobody has properly seen yet.

The Scottish Premiership has been wilder still: St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock, Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic a week later, Hearts 4-0 Dundee United. Six home wins, two draws and four away wins from twelve games.

We also run a stats model — The Bot — that publishes its prediction for every game before kick-off. It called 36% of Championship results and 33% in Scotland, beating the humans, but it hasn’t landed a single exact score yet. August football makes fools of everyone, silicon included.

There’s a lesson in that for anyone starting a season-long prediction league: the first month is a lottery, so a league that rewards consistency over 46 gameweeks will always find a better champion than one decided by a hot fortnight. Don’t let anyone quit in September.

What good looks like

Pulling it all together, the data suggests a realistic scorecard for a serious prediction-league player over a big sample:

            •           Exact scores: 10% is solid, 15% is excellent, 20% is elite.

            •           Results: 55% is par, 65%+ wins most leagues.

            •           Draws: if fewer than a quarter of your picks are draws, you’re leaking points.

            •           Scoreline choice: 2-1 feels clever; it usually isn’t. The modal football score is still 1-1 or 1-0.

And the meta-lesson from 11,658 predictions: nobody — not the 70% result-caller, not the bot, not the bloke who got twenty exact scores — saw Spain 0-0 Cabo Verde coming. That’s why we play.

Guess a Game is a free, non-betting score predictor for the Premier League, English Championship and Scottish Premiership — predict every game, build your final table, and run a private mini-league with your mates at guessagame.com.