All,

As you may or may not be aware, I'm a bit of a stats geek when it comes to the Sun Dream Team (and fantasy football games in general). And I've had messy spreadsheets all over the place for quite some years now, so thought it was about time I tidied the whole lot up and released them.

Thanks to Google Docs I can now publish the whole thing online, which is great.

Here's the link for version 1.0 of "Zarch's SDT Player Stats (2002 to 2009)"
http://zarch1972.blogspot.com/2011/07/s ... stats.html

In a nutshell, here's what is included: (each section is a different worksheet on the spreadsheet)

Full end of season scores for the 98-99 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 99-00 SDT Season (sadly no transfer window breakdown)
Full end of season scores for the 02-03 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 03-04 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 04-05 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 05-06 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 06-07 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 07-08 SDT Season
Full end of season scores for the 08-09 SDT Season
Points History showing end of season scoring from the last 6 seasons for every player still in the game as of last season
07-08 Detail showing each player from the 07-08 season in complete statistical detail

And each "season" sheet has been divided into the three scoring sections; "End of TW1", "TW1 - TW2" and "TW2 Onwards". (apart from 98/99 and 99/00)


Hope this is of use to some of you?

I would appreciate any feedback via this thread and maybe the odd request or two?
I would like someone to explain the "real way of calculating points per million" as I would happily add that.

Also, please let me know how the Google Docs thing is working and if it satisfies the requirement?

There might be more that I could release over the next few weeks once I've tidied it all up and put it into a sensible form. Can't promise anything else though as it might not be worth releasing, but i'll take a look.

Watch this space.

Cheers, Mick

*UPDATE* - For Info, the "Poiits History" sheet only goes back to 03/04 because this is the season that clean sheets for midfielders was added to the game. And the average figures wouldn't ring true if i included pre-03/04.

*UPDATE* - Just done some digging and found end of season 98-99 spreadsheets. Although it says there must have been only 1 transfer window!!! crikey, not sure I can remember than far back to confirm! LOL!

*UPDATE* - Oh Dear, digging behind the cupboard has now found 99-00 too. Hurrah!

Top top work again Zarch. I nicknamed you the stats geek, and i am delighted to see you living up to you excellent reputation once again

Invaluble dater you have collated, and worth being made a sticky for all our useage.


Good work bud!!

Brilliant work Zarch

I had the scores going back to 2002/03 but didn't have TW scores for 05/06 so thanks for helping me finish the lot.

Edited on behalf of TheTon (by Zim)

The opening post has been copied into the sticky at the top of this forum containing all our other stats.

Excellent work Zarch, all the information you provide is of great use!

Cheers

Bit of an update.

Managed to find some really old spreadsheets on the computer, so i've added some figures from around 1998/1999/2000 seasons.

They are so old, they even have some Wednesday players on them!! Jeez, those were the days.

Still missing a few seasons figures, don't suppose anyone else has got anything to fill in the gaps?

Based on the conversations in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=55962
I've added "Points Per Million Square Root" to all sheets right back to 02/03 in addition to the simple PPM calculation already listed.

If someone wants to convince me of the merits of other PPM calculations, I could add them too.

Can you explain the ppm square root thing again?

I can't............. yet!

I quickly skimmed over the suggested thread and people cleverer than me deemed it the correct way to calculate value!!

awesome, will try give them a close butchers in detail to try decipher whats what. well done mick. quality as per. England cracking start, makes a huge difference to picking there main 11 players, in our teams, in my opinion. confidence is v high, plus its almost as though we have to show platini and blatter how we can if we apply ourselves, give it a good shot, especially in the last qualifiers. if England win the Ashes too, that will put massive confidence in the England footy players to up their game and represent.

Not people cleverer than you but people more desperate than you?
Beware of false prohets!

Just spotted this. Nice one Zarch .

Maybe it should have been in bigger letters then?

I was pro PP SqR M (in comparison to PPM).

My viewpoint (which is open to debate) is that PPM may well highlight (or hint at) the best value for money players.

My view is that PPM taken in isolation is misleading.

i.e. Dawson at Hull. He got 53 points (at a cost of just £1m). So a PPM of 53.
John Terry's PPM was a mere 40.

Would Dawson be a better player to select?
Not IMO.

Whereas the PP SqR M, gives a more 'balanced' comparison;
Dawson = 53
Terry = 98.

Rick's (valid) argument is that this skews the figures in favour of the dearer players.
My personal opinion is that it levels the playing field.

In either scenario, both can only be used as a tool to help settle a quandry. Neither system can/should take the place of pure instinct, blind faith or out and out luck!!!!

Dawson is a better pick than Terry if you are up against a budget constraint where the rest of the expenditure on the team has produced at least a return of 40 ppm. If it hasn't Terry is the better pick. Its essentially a simple linear programming maximisation problem.

You know what Striker, I was just thinking that myself!! Uncanny!

50pts per million spent is what I always aim for (using the full budget).

being really pedantic (not aimed specifically at you GB);

so you get 11 players returning 40 PPM.

Say you're dead good (and lucky) and you pluck out 11 sub £2m players all managing this feat. You'd be lucky to hit the 1000 point mark (and consequently win nothing).

I did say using full budget(50m x 50pts)2500 is the target I set (but never achieve )got around 2200 a few years back.

Excellent data Zarch. I was just checking in to look up any news of prices etc. for next season and notice a reference to my old PPsqrtM theory (I thought no one was interested!). I'll try to explain, if I can remember. If you chose a team on basic PPM (M to the power of 1) principals you would only spend about £20m on your team and it would be rubbish. If you chose a team purely based on points (PPM (M to the power 0)) you'd have loads of points but you'd spend £100m (or whatever). So a balance is needed, you need to find the optimum power factor for M. Square rooting M is the same as M to the power of 0.5, so that's what I did, just to split the difference as it were. I tweaked it further on my spreadsheet to try to find the figure to power M by so that if you added up the players at the top of the list for each position to make a team the total would be around the £50m mark. Powering the M by 0.4 seemed to give the best results. These are the top few in each position for 08/09

1 35 M Schwarzer Fulham £2.0m £2.0m 153 116
2 24 P Cech Chelsea £5.5m £5.5m 205 104
3 92 R Green West Ham £3.0m £3.0m 148 95
4 82 Gomes Tottenham £3.0m £3.0m 133 86
5 54 E van der Sar Manchester U£5.5m£5.5m 164 83
6 2 M Almunia Arsenal £5.0m £5.0m 157 82
7 65 S Given Newcastle United £4.0m £4.0m 141 81
8 31 T Howard Everton £5.0m £5.0m 151 79
9 43 J Reina Liverpool £5.5m £5.5m 147 74
10 96 C Kirkland Wigan £2.5m £2.5m 97 67

1 383 T Bramble Wigan £1.0m £1.0m 170 170
2 209 M Turner Hull City £1.0m £1.0m 165 165
3 194 B Hangeland Fulham £1.5m £1.5m 183 156
4 254 J O'Shea Manchester United£2.0m £2.0m 187 142
5 164 J Bosingwa Chelsea £3.0m £3.0m 197 127
6 258 N Vidic Manchester United£6.0m £6.0m 257 126
7 174 J Terry Chelsea £6.0m £6.0m 241 118
8 179 L Baines Everton £2.0m £2.0m 139 105
9 160 Alex Chelsea £3.5m £3.5m 168 102
10 220 J Carragher Liverpool £6.0m £6.0m 206 101

1 564 F Lampard Chelsea £8.0m £8.0m 353 154
2 622 S Gerrard Liverpool £8.0m £8.0m 307 134
3 598 D Murphy Fulham £2.0m £2.0m 161 122
4 663 C Ronaldo Manchester£9.5m £9.5m 298 121
5 618 X Alonso Liverpool £3.0m £3.0m 178 115
6 641 S Ireland Manchester City £4.0m £4.0m 194 111
7 717 G Whelan Stoke £1.0m £1.0m 99 99
8 655 R Giggs Manchester Unite£3.5m £3.5m 163 99
9 568 F Malouda Chelsea £3.0m £3.0m 152 98
10 651 M Carrick Manchester£4.5m £4.5m 172 94

1 840 N Anelka Chelsea £5.0m £5.0m 238 125
2 808 R van Persie Arsenal £5.5m £5.5m 212 107
3 893 Robinho Manchester City £4.5m £4.5m 184 101
4 880 D Kuyt Liverpool £4.5m £4.5m 182 100
5 878 P Crouch Liverpool £3.5m £3.5m 156 95
6 952 D Bent Tottenham £2.5m £2.5m 133 92
7 896 W Rooney Manchester£8.0m £8.0m 210 91
8 900 C Tevez Manchester Unite£5.5m £5.5m 171 86
9 974 C Bellamy West Ham£1.5m £1.5m 101 86
10 882 F Torres Liverpool £8.5m £8.5m 197 84

Picking the top players out of that you'd spend £45.5 and have 2427 points. A certain amount of fiddling will obviously have to be done to find the best team to fit within the rules of the game though.
Remember, it's just a theory that arised from spending too much time playing with my spreadsheet possibly.
Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Great stats Mr Zarch ,
Have you ever managed to do a kind of analysis of previous performance as an indicator of future performance e.g. using stats from 2005 pick the optimum team for 2006 and see how it performs?

No, but you're welcome to have a go and tell us the winning team for next season!

I reckon for £48m you can get 2450 (for a legal team).
Basically all the top PPSqrM players in each position except bringing Ronaldo for Murphy (already using Hange and Schwarzer).

Schwarzer Ful 2 153
Bramble Wig 1 170
Turner Hul 1 165
Hangeland Ful 1.5 183
O'Shea MU 2 187
Lamps Che 8 353
Gerrard Liv 8 307
Ronaldo MU 9.5 298
Anelka Che 5 238
RVP Ars 5.5 212
Robinho MC 4.5 184

48 2450

Pity we dont which will be the best PPSqrM players for next season.... then it'd be easy to pick a team.

If only it was that easy!! lol

I've added PPSqrM column to the "points history" worksheet.

Do you all feel there is value to have that calculation on this sheet as well as the individual seasons?

If so, i'll add it to the last 6 seasons columns too.

Just a quick question for zim and zarch is it better to go 442 or 433? or does it vary season to season?

Davov,

I will leave the spreadsheets at 0.5 (basic Square Root) for now, but I would have no problem amending it to 0.4 if the consensus is that this is a better representation of true value. (but you'd have to come up with a nice acronym like PPM0.4root or whatever!)

Does someone want to go back through previous seasons to come up with the answer? <hint hint>

PS. Added PPSqrM for all seasons on the "Player History" worksheet!

Stats Geek

you'd be better off asking someone who knows what they're doing!

Dont think there is an easy/right answer.
With midfielders gaining extra points for clean sheets, then they have a slight edge.
Obviously strikers have the edge in terms of goals returns though.

After the official 09/10 Player List has been published, I'll use my software to calculate the optimum starting 11 based on 08/09 scores (obviously, prices, teams and positions will be the 09/10 ones). The results will be interesting but, of course, one has to remember that it's all about picking a team for the coming season and there will be many players who will perform well in 09/10 who weren't even in the game last season.

all we need now is an injury algorithm to be factored in!