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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 26 Jul 2018, 19:53

So keepers. Not much point agonising too much over this one. The main principle is that keepers all score roughly the same points, so there is no point wasting budget. This is because you get points for saves and clean sheets. Keeper who get more clean sheets make fewer saves and the converse is true. For the same reason fixture analysis is also counter intuitive. A keeper can score well against strong teams from making many saves.

Here is a bunch of 4.5 guys, with Courtois and De Gea added in for good measure.
Keepers2.JPG
For the stattos you might notice I calculate a clean sheet chance %. I do that by first calculating how many goals a team concedes on average a game, and then use Poisson distribution to calulate how likely 0 goals conceded is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

Look at Courtois. Better chance of a clean sheet, but fewer saves per 90 = similar points per 90.

My pick is Matt Ryan plus his understudy (any Brighton fans know who that is?)
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by blahblah » 26 Jul 2018, 20:14

Patrician wrote:
26 Jul 2018, 19:53
So keepers. Not much point agonising too much over this one. The main principle is that keepers all score roughly the same points, so there is no point wasting budget. This is because you get points for saves and clean sheets. Keeper who get more clean sheets make fewer saves and the converse is true.
Well, except de Gea last season :wink:

I am at the start of doing some stuff on this, but not a clue how it will turn out re points potential of rotation. Arguably it could be similar to the Banding re sticking with one as opposed to GW by GW argument*?

But no rush as the default is not much of a loss points-wise as long as they start..... And nope, not a clue re Ryan's back up :lol:

*I don;t think it has got to that level\depth yet, but it is certainly an interesting one - assuming the right "one" is picked :roll: :cry:

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 26 Jul 2018, 20:19

Lets look at where that has got to

I'll whack in a couple of cheapies (Wan-Bissaka and Heldar-Costa), and worry about those after pre-season has concluded.

Team 1.jpeg
A few issues to resolve:

1) I have to bench a mid-priced player, I need four budget options
2) Too many risky picks (Aguero, Mendy, Richarlison)
3) Aguero specifically is not a nailed on starter, which is maybe too big a risk in the one super premium
4) Two 7.0 FWDS
5) No Salah, what if he does continue where he left off, with such high ownership %?

So whats the fix?

1) Mane to Salah
2) Aguero to Firminho
3) Arnie (tough fixtures) to Niasse (punty cheapie)

Which gives:

Team 2.jpeg
I like it a lot!
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 26 Jul 2018, 20:23

Even De Gea with his outstanding season didn't out pts/M the 4.5 keepers

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by blahblah » 26 Jul 2018, 20:28

Indeed, Fab was top - but de Gea 4th on saves, or similar and higher with CS's? Not opening that spreadsheet tonight as cnt be assed :lol:

Then there is the "Where is the tipping point between PpM and POINTS?" debate. I'm far from sure it is the 20-odd in Fisterts, but brings peace of mind?

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by fred1266 » 26 Jul 2018, 20:44

mikeg13 wrote:
26 Jul 2018, 16:39
fred1266 wrote:
26 Jul 2018, 15:27
blahblah wrote:
25 Jul 2018, 22:46
Stats need an eye test too, imho - Bellend may well not start :wink:
Bellend? do you mean Bellerin if so he definitly starting
You may well be right but not so sure on that as you are, be interesting to see how our Swiss player fits in when he joins up with squad.
Lichtsteiner is definitly a back up and don't forget he is 34 so i assumed he more there for cup games

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 28 Jul 2018, 06:51

Great to see your thought process there. The outcome is very similar to my initial drafts, with Salah and Firminho ahead of Mane/£11m where I anticipated the biggest differences on the initial read through. As others have said, I can’t imagine hiding behind the sofa every week willing Salah to not score - and he’s an easy switch out if last season was a one-off (I doubt that it was but time will tell). Plus NWJ kept reminding me last year that picking good players because you enjoy watching them has merit.

The main differences
M3/4: Martial is one of two or three or four that I keep toying with. Mkhi another. Arsenal’s less easy start will probably swing it (against Mkhi). Richarlison is hard to ignore.
A3: Not sure about Niasse as compared to two £7m options up front with two £4.5m’s in midfield. It lends itself to 4-3-3 with PVA on the pitch more often whilst budgets increase. As for which midfielder would get dropped, I need to consider this in more detail.
Never tried two keepers from the same team. I have Ryan and Fab, but haven’t looked at rotations yet so subject to change. As you say, not the most urgent decision and budget will probably dictate.

It’s still early days in my case - and I have to say that none of the drafts have looked as strong overall as this. Niasse vs Zaha/Arnie though? Hmm...talk me through it again!

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 28 Jul 2018, 09:54

I like Niasse's numbers, which are just as good as Arnie and Zaha, and it saves money. Will he be a regular starter though? I don't know yet. Sounds like Zaha is being transferred, which means Arnie would come in to my team. I like the idea of 4-3-3, and having one fewer mid priced midfield. Martial and Richarlison are both a bit risky, so either could give way. At this stage, I am going to try not to tinker and then re-assess after the Community Shield and pre-season matches. Mendy and Sane are both a bit risky for starting spots, so hoping the Community Shield clarifies that.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 06 Aug 2018, 22:33

Tinker number two, post community shield and friendlies, in the absence of much transfer action so far.

Forwards

I have tinkered a lot with trying to make two of Zaha/Arnie/King work, but I don't like the inflexibility and some risks around Zaha/Arnie. I have tried really hard to ignore Aguero, and stick to my one super-premium principle. Two goals in the community shield later, looking sharp with a tremendously easy start to the season, in the most creative team and games that roate with Salah quite well. Feels right.

Firminho (risk for week 1, and I want Mane, Salah, VD/Robertson) >Aguero
Zaha (subject to transfer news) > King (easy start, might then switch to Arnie)
Niasse > Kamara (bench fodder who looks like getting gametime)

Midfield

Martial (gone completely cold on him) > Mane
Richarlison (I like, but Everton look shite) > Stephens (2pt bench fodder)
Sane (seems like not quite fit) > Mahrez (more involved)

GK/Defence no change
FPL 3.jpeg
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by blahblah » 06 Aug 2018, 23:09

Looking very similar to mine, or just as "sensible"?

I've still a few transfer related decisions to make, hopefully not as many as Chelsea and Spurs though.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 12 Aug 2018, 21:58

GW1 97 Points, GW 23,877, OR 23,877

GW1.jpg

What a fantastic start! It is only one week, but it looks like I made a lot of the right choices. Specifically I avoided the following players, all of whom tempted me greatly: Sane, Mahrez, TAA, Davies, and the ones I picked instead scored big: Mane, Richarlison, Robertson, Mendy. Overall I stuck to my initial principles (mostly, I'm looking at you Aguero), and I have my best ever start. Even had W-B (12pts) on the bench.

Even though a lot of WC players started, I think on balance it was the right decision to swerve them.

Salah watch: 1G, 3 SiB, 1.57 xGI (Highest) - looks like he is on similar form as last year.

The only issues at this stage are:

King - (1 SiB, 0,14 xGI) playing against Cardiff at home. With 0.5M in the bank, he is an easy transfer to either Zaha (2 SiB, 0.64 xGI, 7M) or Wilson (6 SiB, 1.51 xGI, 6M)
Azpi - I picked because I think he is more nailed on, but I think Alonso will score more per 90 - minor issue for sure, easy swap if nothing else to fix.
Costa (0SiB, 0.06 xGI) - Wasn't much involved, came off quite early after a disappointing display - bench warmer, no big deal
Aguero (2 SiB, 0.61 xGI) - not good enough for the money tied up, but we have HUD (H) next up, so he gets another chance

Players to watch

Wilson (6 SiB, 1.51 xGI) - stand out mid-price FWD performance
Pogba (1 SiB, 0.84 xGI 8.0M) - lots of choice at this price range though
Jorginho (1SiB, 0.83 xGI 5.0M) - this seaons Mili? Costa swap?
Schlupp (1SiB, 0.07 xGI 4.5M) - cheaper OOP PvA?
Jimenez (3 SiB, 0.78 xGI 5.5M) - could be the bargain FWD


Bandwagons to avoid (until proven otherwise)

Pereyra (4SiB, 0.24 xGI, 6.0M) - lucky to get 2 goals in my opinion

It is a bit early to put any faith in the statistics, I will wait until after three games before drawing initial conclusions. Main transfer to consider is King > Wilson or Jimenez, to bank 0.5/1.0M and catch a price rise.
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 12 Aug 2018, 22:46

Arnie may be another issue, did he come off injured?

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 13 Aug 2018, 00:14

Good analysis. I also think that I have the wrong Bournemouth forward, but dropping King for Wilson does seem to be too much of a sideways move with just 90 minutes of data...yet

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 13 Aug 2018, 07:15

I think you are probably right on King > Wilson, I will probably roll the transfer. If I decide to move Aguero on after GW2 then I wil need a 2nd transfer to spend the savings.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 18 Aug 2018, 07:34

GW2 Captain

The first dilema of the season raises its head. The Guardian have reported that Aguero may not start against Huddersfield, while logic dictates that if I have Aguero in my team, then I have to captain him against Huddersfield (H). A disaster would be Aguero (C) coming on for a few minutes while Salah runs amok. In my analysis of last season, I highlighted the mistake of not transferring in Aguero for GW24 (NEW, WBA, bur, LEI) where he scored 46 points and was prime captain material. If I recall though he was nailed on at that time, was Jesus injured? Can't quite remember.

While Aguero had a great match in the Shield, his performance last week was pretty poor, while Salah posted the best attacking stats of the week. Palace (A) looks like a tougher prospect than West Ham (H), Salah scored 12 goals away from home last season. Arrrgh I can tell that having Aguero is going to stress me out all season, I really should have stuck to my guns and not had him in. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I can sense myself transferring Aguero out next week and reinvesting savings on him elsewhere.

Since I doubt that The Guardian would print idle rumour, I can asssume they have decent confidence in their source. Decision status: Undecided :mrgreen:

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by SirMattBugsby » 18 Aug 2018, 07:40

Your disaster scenario (Aguero coming on) should only happen if City are losing. That's how it was last season.

So imho, captaining Aguero is a calculated risk you should definitely take. Make Salah (vc).

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 18 Aug 2018, 08:02

That is a good point. I think it probably comes down to if Aguero starts, it is a prime match for a hatty. If he doesn't start he may well not come on at all, and I can have Salah(vc). I would probably kick myself most if I don't Aguero(c) and he does what he often does.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 18 Aug 2018, 11:07

‘Arrrgh I can tell that having Aguero is going to stress me out all season, I really should have stuck to my guns and not had him in. Regardless of what happens this weekend, I can sense myself transferring Aguero out next week and reinvesting savings on him elsewhere’
Snap
FWIW, I have bottled captaining him, mainly based on comments on here. Safety first with Salah

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 18 Aug 2018, 12:16

Have gone Aguero(c), Salah(vc). Fingers crossed.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 19 Aug 2018, 14:33

So, Aguero... discuss!

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 15:10

Wow what a sensational performance. So glad I stuck to my guns. This means he stays in my team for the next two matches at least, and I can use my two transfers to ditch King and Costa who are the only players I am not happy with.

Looking like another good gameweek!


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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 19:23

GW3 Transfers (2FT, 0.5M in the bank)

Looks like lots of price changes tonight, and I have two primary issues to fix: King and Costa are both looking terrible FPL prospects. The good news is that there are plenty in their price ranges that look promising.

Starting with the easy one, in the 5.5-7.0 FWDs range, the player with the best stats per 90 so far, is also the cheapest at 5.5M, Danny Ings for King is a complete no brainer. So much so I already made that transfer last night due to the risk of a price drop for King.

Now have 1.5M in the bank
FWD.JPG
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 19:38

Ditching Costa 5.0M plus 1.5M in the bank

in the 5.0-7.0M range, these are the interesting players so far.
MID.JPG
Mkhi is the one to have with a run of WHU, car, new, EVE, WAT, ful coming up, but I am 0.5M short.
Perayra does look good after all, but with TOT, MUN, ars coming up and having missed the price rise, I am not so sure.
Kante, in what is more of a box to box role, is a straight swap, low price and has a good run of fixtures. The money in the bank could then be used to upgrade elsewhere.

Is there a third transfer I could make to get an extra 0.5 to afford Mkhi?
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 19:48

It turns out there is!

Azpilicueta is not really getting the sort of attacking stats to justify his 6.5M price tag. Alonso is worth it, Azpi not. So far.

Ben Davies on the other hand has been very unlucky to not get any attacking returns so far. His stats are at Mendy levels, and Spurs defence will stiffen as the WC players get up to speed. Yet his price is probably going to drop tonight. If I wait until tomorrow I can grab Davies at 5.9, and then afford the Mkhi move for a 4pt hit. I am confident that Davies will start piling on the points. Hmmm. Nice!
DEF.JPG
As an aside, based on my calculations so far, Mendy is a serious candidate for scoring the most FPL points this year.
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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Pulpy » 19 Aug 2018, 20:45

I take it Pedro's game time is a risk too far for you? He played well by all accounts against Arsenal so may not be the one to make way for Hazard.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 20:56

Not even that, I am very purist about the stats and I have Kante as looking better points potential for less money. If I go Chelsea, I go Kante.


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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by FranckKessie » 19 Aug 2018, 21:45

Have you considered banking your 2nd transfer?

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 21:52

No, because I have real issues to fix, and this is a good time to be active. People are selling players that will score big and buying players that will flop. The edge to my approach is that I can exploit that. 10 weeks in, and the good/poor players will be obvious to everyone.

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by FranckKessie » 19 Aug 2018, 22:10

I am all for Davies first of all. Him and Trippier ticks the right boxes, amount of Trippier rotation is a concern of mine though.

But what are the real issues? A price drop? Your team looks well setup for next week. You have lots of good fixtures, so Costa would going forward be amongst the subs most of the time anyway I assume?

New question. You described Mkhi as best option. Which numbers from your table do you consider most important? I am also seriously considering Mkhi, but based on your 6 week projection number he doesnt seem like best option?

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Re: Patrician Blog

Post by Patrician » 19 Aug 2018, 22:19

You are right, Costa would be benched a lot and my planned transfers would mean benching a good option every week. I quite like that though. Having a first sub that can score well. I think protecting and gaining squad value is a good thing early on especially if the moves bring more expected points.

Best stat for Mkh is the xGI per 90 stat, together with the good fixture run. It really is too early to rely on the stats too much, another couple of games for confidence.

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