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Stu255 RMT 19/20

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Everybody out!

Go back to your own RMT you’re spilling jinx everywhere.

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by jacksosi »

Stu255 wrote:Everybody out!

Go back to your own RMT you’re spilling jinx everywhere.
ImageImageImage

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Stevieste
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stevieste »

We allowed back yet 😳🤣

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

This is my team just now...
81721E00-DAFE-4946-9224-E77E3276FE39.png

My bench is dreadful and more than a few weak players in the team too, so very prone to injuries.

But I do wonder if there is too much concern given to you 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th man. If they can muster 3pts between them that’s probably OK.

You can spend a lot of cash in this part of your team and only reliably get 5pts instead of the bargain basement 3pts. Also cash locked up here is illiquid, it takes lots of FT’s to get at it.

So structurally I like having 9 players with some value and 6 who are fodder.defenders rarely come off the bench so it’s usually 2pts or zero for the cheapest ones.
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DavidLloydIsAHero
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by DavidLloydIsAHero »

I agree that cash locked here isn't liquid at all, transfers to these parts of the team should never be a priority. Both times this year I have made serious changes to my 11-15 players have been on a WC (I had other issues as well or I wouldn't have pulled the trigger). But a little extra spend on these areas when you have the luxury to do so is worth it imo. I reckon for max 1M more (depending on your purchase prices) I have a playing keeper (McCarthy) to cover Henderson when he misses against Utd, Lascelles to rotate with Stephens and both Cantwell/Hayden to provide the two pointers (with the possibility of more) should another player be rested/dropped.

Maybe it is a TV thing as I also have .5M ITB but that extra spend brings me points (Lascelles clean this week for example), flexibility and peace of mind. It was a luxury I would only go to on a WC or if I had a FT about to burn, especially when there aren't that many premium or upper mid range players screaming to be bought this year that I would need to scrimp to get to.

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Stevieste
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stevieste »

Not sure if you have any cash ITB, but if you had 0.5 would you swap Saka ( who LB instead of LW at moment) to Fleck who seems class act for Sheff Utd ?

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by dino1980 »

Hey Stu, given your posts in TRK I imagine you’ve already read this article in the NYT, published in May about Liverpool’s analytics team. If not, grab a brew and enjoy. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/maga ... rpool.html
And if you subscribe to The Athletic, here’s a more recent one about Fortress Anfield, strong focus on how Klopp has changed the playing surface, down to the length of the grass required, since he took over. https://theathletic.com/1570062/2020/02 ... ed-article

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

So...

I have long had a theory that KDB went out injured last season and spent much of that time locked in a classroom with MCI's nerds.
This season Aguero was injured in GW13 and didn't come back until GW20. Interestingly his game has changed and we now have New-Aguero, to go with New-KDB. Lots of people will scoff at this but who cares? Modern football has no place to hide such things as analytic tools dig beneath the eye test and highlight stuff that video doesn't really show.

What does that even mean? Well take a look below at this map of shots taken...

Aguero GW 1 -13 ......................... Aguero GW 20 - ...
Aguero 1-20-38.PNG
Since returning in GW20 Kun has been prolific. But he isn't back to his old self, he is doing something different. There are whole areas of the penalty box where he just doesn't venture any more.

Previously and in all his data from past seasons, he plays straight down the middle of the goal, and he prefers to shoot from approximately 12 yards. But he just isn't playing that way any more.

Now he doesn't go beyond the left post. Ever. Interestingly this is also an area of the pitch where he did not score from GW1-13. In his data from previous seasons he is far less prolific outside of the left post. Now he seems to have been made aware of this, and is less wasteful and more efficient.

Kun is also making it into the six yard box much more than previously, his "shoot from" channel is now much narrower and also much deeper than before.


I find this stuff really interesting, whenever Man City players are out injured they seem to come back vastly smarter. I am therefore keenly awaiting the return of Laporte and Sane. What visible changes to their game will we detect?
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blahblah
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by blahblah »

Doesn't Sterling go to the left?

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

blahblah wrote: 11 Feb 2020, 14:17 Doesn't Sterling go to the left?
That's Aguero's shot locations from GW 1 - 13 on the left side, and GW 20 - 25 on the right.

Same player in both maps.

Sterling has been on the left throughout. But look at how Aguero's shot locations have changed since his injury.

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by blahblah »

Yes, I know- my point was more with and without Sterling. I know Pep has something of an obsession with the ball over the top of the CB's to the left (for City) of the goal.

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by From4corners »

Stu255 wrote: 11 Feb 2020, 13:50 ...

I find this stuff really interesting
Me too, many thanks for sharing! Really neat insight.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Jamie Vardy had zero shots against Wolves.

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Stevieste
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stevieste »

Stu255 wrote: 15 Feb 2020, 22:24 Jamie Vardy had zero shots against Wolves.
That wont continue though will it ?

After Man City game will everyone not want to be on Jamie Vardy again ?

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Stevieste wrote: 15 Feb 2020, 22:31
Stu255 wrote: 15 Feb 2020, 22:24 Jamie Vardy had zero shots against Wolves.
That wont continue though will it ?

After Man City game will everyone not want to be on Jamie Vardy again ?
Dunno? I think he’s pants and he’s in my team.

This is all his passes since GW17 (baby). What’s he doing over here?
CEC13850-CE25-40E9-9406-886A4FAF83D0.jpeg
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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Vardy’s touch heat map for his 8 games before baby...
9C7AF11A-697B-4424-9FD2-C4FD6ECE6A77.jpeg
Vardy’s touch heat map for his 8 games after baby...
F2EA89E5-CD0F-43C2-B4A4-3CAE1AD5E470.jpeg
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Joccki_10 »

He will most likely be leaving my team for Jiménez and I’ll be keeping Calvert-Lewin in the process.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Taken a hit this week.

Think it’s only my 3rd of the season?

Vardy :arrow: Jiminez
Saka :arrow: Perez
£0.4m itb


That leaves me with this...
7AECDD03-260E-456C-9237-575647160153.png
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Joccki_10 »

Why did you bring in Pérez for a hit?

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by blahblah »

Joccki_10 wrote: 17 Feb 2020, 17:41 Why did you bring in Pérez for a hit?
Insanity?

😂😂😂

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Because it’s the only way to fit in the subsequent transfers around GW28 and 31.

I worked out the difference over the next 5 games is probably about 12pts if I take a hit this week.

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Gambit »

Stu255 wrote: 17 Feb 2020, 18:54 Because it’s the only way to fit in the subsequent transfers around GW28 and 31.

I worked out the difference over the next 5 games is probably about 12pts if I take a hit this week.
What made you choose Perez above Barnes? Currently looking to get Barnes in but I can afford Perez, you think he's a much better pick?

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Currently looking good for GW28...
AE1D3AF1-3160-40A3-90AC-D051034C08EA.png
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FranckKessie
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by FranckKessie »

Your 11th player for the GW28 clearly must be from an (a)-team such that you can field an entire line-up with (a)-fixtures :)

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

FranckKessie wrote: 21 Feb 2020, 20:36 Your 11th player for the GW28 clearly must be from an (a)-team such that you can field an entire line-up with (a)-fixtures :)
Was planning Greenwood to Long so that is quite likely.

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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by SirMattBugsby »

Gambit wrote:
Stu255 wrote: 17 Feb 2020, 18:54 Because it’s the only way to fit in the subsequent transfers around GW28 and 31.

I worked out the difference over the next 5 games is probably about 12pts if I take a hit this week.
What made you choose Perez above Barnes? Currently looking to get Barnes in but I can afford Perez, you think he's a much better pick?
I'm thinking Barnes too, although I might get both in if Leicester look better.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

I have 2FT's for GW29, this is a tricky one as DGW players in GW29 are BGW players in GW31.

Considering

Mane to Sterling and McGovern to Leno (whilst retaining Pope).

This gives me 3 players in the DGW, with only Sterling really needing to move on before GW31. Should have 2FT's by then so I can go back to Mane + A.N.Other

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

My entire chip strategy and thus season now hinges on whether or not I think KDB will start v's Man Utd. Sigh.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

I've been doing OK since the restart, but my captain picks have been frustrating.

I've had 98 and 100 past two GW's and currently on 44 this week, all the while I seem to have a knack of picking my lowest scoring player as captain.

Also, Jamie Vardy is in my team and i have come to the conclusion that he is terrible at football.
I remember learning this back in March, but I seem to have forgotten it again whilst football was cancelled.


Since GW19 Vardy has returned 2.9 ppg shockingly bad, and for 9.8m? The guy is an FPL landmine.

Look under the hood and all his underlying stats are also bad. Again you have to look at Vardy from GW19 (paternity leave).

xG per 90 = 0.33
shots per 90 = 1.72
shots in box per 90 = 1.28
shots on target per 90 = 0.80

Do you know who has a higher xG and shots in the box than Vardy since GW19?
Harvey Barnes (£6.1m)

Vardy has played 785 mins
Barnes has played 790 mins


Harvey Barnes
xG per 90 = 0.33
shots per 90 = 2.39
shots in box per 90 = 1.71
shots on target per 90 = 1.14

Barnes is in the same team as Vardy, but is taking more of their shots, is more involved in all of their build up. He is also a midfielder so he gets CS and an extra pts for a goal. He is also £3.5 million cheaper than Vardy.

Now I don't have Barnes, I don't think he's fantastic. So why the hell do I have Vardy? All the FPL models that everyone uses still include Vardy's pre GW19 run. But he isn't the same player now. He isn't even playing the same role for Leicester.

Unless something radically different happens tonight, I'm going to punt him and play a 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 for the run in.

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Stu255
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Re: Stu255 RMT 19/20

Post by Stu255 »

Vardy played 90 minutes tonight against Everton.

Shots from Vardy?
Zero. F***ing Zero.

Case closed!

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