Affects of Europe

[Zimmerman]

Loads of parameters and variables not factored in, so take this at face value;

Results following European games so far

Wolves
P7 W1 D5 L1

Spurs
P3 W0 D0 L3

United
P3 W1 D0 L2

Arsenal
P3 W2 D1 L0

City
P3 W2 D0 L1

Liverpool
P4 W4 D0 L0

Chelsea
P4 W2 D1 L1

Other factors might include the fact that Arsenal have had three home games (Spurs 3 away including Liverpool and Leicester).

City have had 3 at home (United 3 aways)


Last season:

United won 4/10 following a European game.... 0/5 following an away European tie
(15/28 in the league without preceding European matches)

= 54% win rate v 40% (or 0%)

Spurs won 7/12 | 3/6
(16/26 in the league without preceding European matches)

= 62% v 58% (or 50%)

Arsenal won 8/13 | 4/6
(13/25 in the league without preceding European matches)

= 52% v 62% (or 67%)

Chelsea won 5/14 | 1/7
(16/24 in the league without preceding European matches)

67% v 36% (or 14%)

There will or course have been some weeks with preceding league cup games or league games etc.
Or rotation came in to play as priorities changed over the course of the season / run in.

So not exactly scientific (and one season is hardly a significant data pool).


I’ve not looked at City as they achieved freak like results in the recent years.

Liverpool did manage 11/12 wins last season following their European games. The unexpected draw at old Trafford and laboured wins against Fulham, Cardiff and Newcastle were all post Europe.

[bspittles]

I know it will shrink the datapool even further, but is there a marked difference in post-Euro games depending on whether the Euro game was home or away?

[Zimmerman]

Already included that (haven’t included whether the league game that followed was home or away).

eg united won 0/5 of their games after a European away and Chelsea 1/7

[blahblah]

That is Away Euro Tie?

The Spurs data will be shafted by them not having an away Prem match since January or something daft.

[bspittles]

Already included that (haven’t included whether the league game that followed was home or away).

eg united won 0/5 of their games after a European away and Chelsea 1/7

Cheers, I'd misread that.

[Zimmerman]

That is Away Euro Tie?

The Spurs data will be shafted by them not having an away Prem match since January or something daft.

Indeed... but is it cause and effect?
Have they not had a win because they have the European exploits? Which came first?

They’ve had 11 league away games since their last league away win (Fulham 20/01).
7 of those 11 have been immediately after a European tie.

[Zimmerman]

7/11 followed a European match

The four that didn’t;

Chelsea (lost)
Liverpool (lost)
City (draw)
Arsenal (draw)

[blahblah]

Hmm, so maybe more CL based than bring pants away. They won at Citeh in the CL during that run?

[Zimmerman]

No, they didn’t.

Second biggest game in their history was a 4-3 defeat

Hmm, so maybe more CL based than bring pants away. They won at Citeh in the CL during that run?

As with all these things, there are many factors.
CL is one of them
Size of squad is another
Spurs performance against the top 6 over the last 4-5 years another

[Zimmerman]

United had 5/9 league games away from home following a European tie last season.

Maybe a factor in why they only managed 4/10 wins post euro (0/10 post euro away).

City away (loss)
Saints away (draw)
Liverpool away (loss)
Chelsea away (won... cup game)
Arsenal away (loss)
Everton away (loss)

With the exception of Southampton... 4 of Uniteds hardest 6 games of the season all came after European ventures?

Or could just because they (and Ole) are rubbish

[SUZYKINS]

Affects of Europe or Effect of Europe

[blahblah]

Affects of Europe or Effect of Europe

I was waiting for who would bring that up

[murf]

Was going to be me but I didn't want to be seen as a pedant.

Something affects something causing an effect.

"Affected by Europe" would be ok.

[Zimmerman]

United, Wolves, Chelsea and Arsenal all dropping points post europe... wolves and Arsenal had tough opponents (who both also had European encounters themselves).

Win rate post europe / non Europe win rate

Liverpool 100% / 90%
City 50% / 73%
Chelsea 43% / 60%
Spurs 33% / 45%
United 33% / 36%
Arsenal 33% / 27%
Wolves 20% / 43%

[Zimmerman]

Following European encounters, these are their results:

City
Watford h win
Wolves h lost
Villa h win
Liverpool a lost
Newcastle a draw
Arsenal a win

Chelsea
Leicester h draw
Liverpool h lost
Saints a win
Burnley a win
Palace h win
West Ham h lost
Bournemouth h lost

Spurs
Leicester a lost
Brighton a lost
Liverpool a lost
Sheff U h draw
Bournemouth h win
Wolves a win

United
West Ham a lost
Newcastle a lost
Norwich a win
Brighton h win
Villa h draw
Everton h draw

Arsenal
Villa h win
Bournemouth h win
Palace h draw
Leicester a lost
Norwich a draw
City h lost

Wolves
Leicester a draw
United h draw
Burnley h draw
Everton a lost
Palace a draw
City a win
Newcastle a draw
Villa h win
Sheff Utd h draw
Spurs h loss

[murf]

United, Wolves, Chelsea and Arsenal all dropping points post europe... wolves and Arsenal had tough opponents (who both also had European encounters themselves).

Win rate post europe / non Europe win rate

Liverpool 100% / 90%
City 50% / 73%
Chelsea 43% / 60%
Spurs 33% / 45%
United 33% / 36%
Arsenal 33% / 27%
Wolves 20% / 43%

Interesting stats.

Relatively small sample size and can't take into account quality of opposition etc but overall there is a definite effect visible (just under 10% less likely to win post Europe).