Affects of Europe
- Zimmerman
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Affects of Europe
Loads of parameters and variables not factored in, so take this at face value;
Results following European games so far
Wolves
P7 W1 D5 L1
Spurs
P3 W0 D0 L3
United
P3 W1 D0 L2
Arsenal
P3 W2 D1 L0
City
P3 W2 D0 L1
Liverpool
P4 W4 D0 L0
Chelsea
P4 W2 D1 L1
Other factors might include the fact that Arsenal have had three home games (Spurs 3 away including Liverpool and Leicester).
City have had 3 at home (United 3 aways)
Last season:
United won 4/10 following a European game.... 0/5 following an away European tie
(15/28 in the league without preceding European matches)
= 54% win rate v 40% (or 0%)
Spurs won 7/12 | 3/6
(16/26 in the league without preceding European matches)
= 62% v 58% (or 50%)
Arsenal won 8/13 | 4/6
(13/25 in the league without preceding European matches)
= 52% v 62% (or 67%)
Chelsea won 5/14 | 1/7
(16/24 in the league without preceding European matches)
67% v 36% (or 14%)
There will or course have been some weeks with preceding league cup games or league games etc.
Or rotation came in to play as priorities changed over the course of the season / run in.
So not exactly scientific (and one season is hardly a significant data pool).
I’ve not looked at City as they achieved freak like results in the recent years.
Liverpool did manage 11/12 wins last season following their European games. The unexpected draw at old Trafford and laboured wins against Fulham, Cardiff and Newcastle were all post Europe.
Results following European games so far
Wolves
P7 W1 D5 L1
Spurs
P3 W0 D0 L3
United
P3 W1 D0 L2
Arsenal
P3 W2 D1 L0
City
P3 W2 D0 L1
Liverpool
P4 W4 D0 L0
Chelsea
P4 W2 D1 L1
Other factors might include the fact that Arsenal have had three home games (Spurs 3 away including Liverpool and Leicester).
City have had 3 at home (United 3 aways)
Last season:
United won 4/10 following a European game.... 0/5 following an away European tie
(15/28 in the league without preceding European matches)
= 54% win rate v 40% (or 0%)
Spurs won 7/12 | 3/6
(16/26 in the league without preceding European matches)
= 62% v 58% (or 50%)
Arsenal won 8/13 | 4/6
(13/25 in the league without preceding European matches)
= 52% v 62% (or 67%)
Chelsea won 5/14 | 1/7
(16/24 in the league without preceding European matches)
67% v 36% (or 14%)
There will or course have been some weeks with preceding league cup games or league games etc.
Or rotation came in to play as priorities changed over the course of the season / run in.
So not exactly scientific (and one season is hardly a significant data pool).
I’ve not looked at City as they achieved freak like results in the recent years.
Liverpool did manage 11/12 wins last season following their European games. The unexpected draw at old Trafford and laboured wins against Fulham, Cardiff and Newcastle were all post Europe.
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- Dumbledore
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Re: Affects of Europe
I know it will shrink the datapool even further, but is there a marked difference in post-Euro games depending on whether the Euro game was home or away?
- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
Already included that (haven’t included whether the league game that followed was home or away).
eg united won 0/5 of their games after a European away and Chelsea 1/7
eg united won 0/5 of their games after a European away and Chelsea 1/7
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Re: Affects of Europe
That is Away Euro Tie?
The Spurs data will be shafted by them not having an away Prem match since January or something daft.
The Spurs data will be shafted by them not having an away Prem match since January or something daft.
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- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
Indeed... but is it cause and effect?
Have they not had a win because they have the European exploits? Which came first?
They’ve had 11 league away games since their last league away win (Fulham 20/01).
7 of those 11 have been immediately after a European tie.
- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
7/11 followed a European match
The four that didn’t;
Chelsea (lost)
Liverpool (lost)
City (draw)
Arsenal (draw)
The four that didn’t;
Chelsea (lost)
Liverpool (lost)
City (draw)
Arsenal (draw)
- blahblah
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Re: Affects of Europe
Hmm, so maybe more CL based than bring pants away. They won at Citeh in the CL during that run?
- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
No, they didn’t.
Second biggest game in their history was a 4-3 defeat
CL is one of them
Size of squad is another
Spurs performance against the top 6 over the last 4-5 years another
Second biggest game in their history was a 4-3 defeat
As with all these things, there are many factors.
CL is one of them
Size of squad is another
Spurs performance against the top 6 over the last 4-5 years another
- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
United had 5/9 league games away from home following a European tie last season.
Maybe a factor in why they only managed 4/10 wins post euro (0/10 post euro away).
City away (loss)
Saints away (draw)
Liverpool away (loss)
Chelsea away (won... cup game)
Arsenal away (loss)
Everton away (loss)
With the exception of Southampton... 4 of Uniteds hardest 6 games of the season all came after European ventures?
Or could just because they (and Ole) are rubbish
Maybe a factor in why they only managed 4/10 wins post euro (0/10 post euro away).
City away (loss)
Saints away (draw)
Liverpool away (loss)
Chelsea away (won... cup game)
Arsenal away (loss)
Everton away (loss)
With the exception of Southampton... 4 of Uniteds hardest 6 games of the season all came after European ventures?
Or could just because they (and Ole) are rubbish
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Re: Affects of Europe
Affects of Europe or Effect of Europe
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Re: Affects of Europe
Was going to be me but I didn't want to be seen as a pedant.
Something affects something causing an effect.
"Affected by Europe" would be ok.
Something affects something causing an effect.
"Affected by Europe" would be ok.
- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
United, Wolves, Chelsea and Arsenal all dropping points post europe... wolves and Arsenal had tough opponents (who both also had European encounters themselves).
Win rate post europe / non Europe win rate
Liverpool 100% / 90%
City 50% / 73%
Chelsea 43% / 60%
Spurs 33% / 45%
United 33% / 36%
Arsenal 33% / 27%
Wolves 20% / 43%
Win rate post europe / non Europe win rate
Liverpool 100% / 90%
City 50% / 73%
Chelsea 43% / 60%
Spurs 33% / 45%
United 33% / 36%
Arsenal 33% / 27%
Wolves 20% / 43%
- Zimmerman
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Re: Affects of Europe
Following European encounters, these are their results:
City
Watford h win
Wolves h lost
Villa h win
Liverpool a lost
Newcastle a draw
Arsenal a win
Chelsea
Leicester h draw
Liverpool h lost
Saints a win
Burnley a win
Palace h win
West Ham h lost
Bournemouth h lost
Spurs
Leicester a lost
Brighton a lost
Liverpool a lost
Sheff U h draw
Bournemouth h win
Wolves a win
United
West Ham a lost
Newcastle a lost
Norwich a win
Brighton h win
Villa h draw
Everton h draw
Arsenal
Villa h win
Bournemouth h win
Palace h draw
Leicester a lost
Norwich a draw
City h lost
Wolves
Leicester a draw
United h draw
Burnley h draw
Everton a lost
Palace a draw
City a win
Newcastle a draw
Villa h win
Sheff Utd h draw
Spurs h loss
City
Watford h win
Wolves h lost
Villa h win
Liverpool a lost
Newcastle a draw
Arsenal a win
Chelsea
Leicester h draw
Liverpool h lost
Saints a win
Burnley a win
Palace h win
West Ham h lost
Bournemouth h lost
Spurs
Leicester a lost
Brighton a lost
Liverpool a lost
Sheff U h draw
Bournemouth h win
Wolves a win
United
West Ham a lost
Newcastle a lost
Norwich a win
Brighton h win
Villa h draw
Everton h draw
Arsenal
Villa h win
Bournemouth h win
Palace h draw
Leicester a lost
Norwich a draw
City h lost
Wolves
Leicester a draw
United h draw
Burnley h draw
Everton a lost
Palace a draw
City a win
Newcastle a draw
Villa h win
Sheff Utd h draw
Spurs h loss
- murf
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Re: Affects of Europe
Interesting stats.Zimmerman wrote:United, Wolves, Chelsea and Arsenal all dropping points post europe... wolves and Arsenal had tough opponents (who both also had European encounters themselves).
Win rate post europe / non Europe win rate
Liverpool 100% / 90%
City 50% / 73%
Chelsea 43% / 60%
Spurs 33% / 45%
United 33% / 36%
Arsenal 33% / 27%
Wolves 20% / 43%
Relatively small sample size and can't take into account quality of opposition etc but overall there is a definite effect visible (just under 10% less likely to win post Europe).
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