Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

[Turd Ferguson]

I honestly don't love the double for United. Burnley have improved from their slow start and Wolves have been good all year - they've played the top 6 very tough. I'm holding onto Pogba and I'll likely bring in either Shaw or Lindelof, but I don't see United scoring loads of goals that week.

[TheRumourMill]

I honestly don't love the double for United. Burnley have improved from their slow start and Wolves have been good all year - they've played the top 6 very tough. I'm holding onto Pogba and I'll likely bring in either Shaw or Lindelof, but I don't see United scoring loads of goals that week.

United aren't playing Burnley though?

[Finisher1]

I honestly don't love the double for United. Burnley have improved from their slow start and Wolves have been good all year - they've played the top 6 very tough. I'm holding onto Pogba and I'll likely bring in either Shaw or Lindelof, but I don't see United scoring loads of goals that week.

United aren't playing Burnley though?

They aren't indeed, they play Watford and Wolves.

[Turd Ferguson]

Ah, my mistake. It's Wolves themselves who play Burnley in their other match. That makes it a bit better for United. Watford have been poor away from home.

It's still a question mark for me though. The Wolves game should be tight.

[Stemania]

Finally had time to update first post of the thread. By a weird quirk of fate, we currently have only three teams that are 100% confirmed to have a DGW32, but six that are confirmed for a DGW35:

----------------------------------------------

Key (GWs 31-38):
Green - no blanks, no doubles
Brown - 0 or 1 blank, 0 or 1 double
Yellow - 1 blank, 1 double
Orange - no blanks, 1 double
Red - 1 or 2 blanks, 1 or 2 doubles
Purple - 2 blanks, 2 doubles
Blue - 1 or 2 blanks, 2 or 3 doubles

'A iff B' - fixture A happens if event B happens, but doesn't happen if B doesn't happen
'A if B' - fixture A happens if event B happens, but might still happen even if B doesn't happen

----------------------------------------------

Confirmed GW31 Blanks:
Arsenal, Brighton, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Man City,
Man United, Southampton, Tottenham, Watford, Wolves

Confirmed GW31 Fixtures:
Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Burnley vs Leicester
Everton vs Chelsea
Fulham vs Liverpool
West Ham vs Huddersfield

----------------------------------------------
All remaining fixtures will be finalised between 31 & 32
----------------------------------------------

Confirmed GW32 Doubles:
Brighton (SOT, che/CAR)
Man United (WAT, wol)
Wolves (bur, MUN)

Undetermined GW32 Doubles:
Chelsea (car, BHA) -- if CHE beat KIEV and either BHA beat MIL or MCI beat SWA
Cardiff (CHE, mci) -- iff MCI beat SWA
Man City (ful, CAR) -- iff MCI beat SWA
Newcastle (ars, cry) -- iff MIL beat BHA and CRY beat WAT
Palace (HUD, tot) -- iff BHA beat MIL
Tottenham (liv, CRY) -- iff BHA beat MIL

Potential Further GW32 Doublers
(Fixtures could go in either GW32 or GW35)
Fulham (MCI, wat) -- iff WAT beat CRY
Southampton (bha, wat)
Watford (mun, FUL/SOT)

Cardiff (CHE, bha)
(possible if KIEV beat CHE or both MIL beat BHA and SWA beat MCI)

----------------------------------------------

Confirmed GW33 Blanks:
Man United, Wolves

Confirmed GW33 Fixtures:
Bournemouth v Burnley
Chelsea v West Ham
Everton v Arsenal
Huddersfield v Leicester
Southampton v Liverpool

Undetermined GW33 Fixtures:
Man City vs Cardiff
(blank iff MCI beat SWA - would go into GW32)
Newcastle vs Palace
(blank iff CRY beat WAT - could go in either GW32 or GW35)
Tottenham vs Brighton
(blank iff BHA beat MIL - would go into GW35)
Watford vs Fulham
(blank iff WAT beat CRY - could go in either GW32 or GW35)

----------------------------------------------

Confirmed GW35 Doubles:
Arsenal (CRY, wol)
Brighton (wol, che/CAR/tot)
Man City (TOT, mun)
Man United (eve, MCI)
Tottenham (mci, BHA/CRY)
Wolves (BHA, ARS)

Undetermined GW35 Doubles:
Newcastle (SOT, CRY) -- iff BHA beat MIL and CRY beat WAT
Palace (ars, new) -- iff MIL beat BHA and CRY beat WAT
Palace (ars, tot) -- iff MIL beat BHA

Potential Further GW35 Doublers
(Fixtures could go in either GW32 or GW35)
Fulham (bou, wat) -- iff WAT beat CRY
Southampton (new, wat)
Watford (hud, FUL/SOT)

Cardiff (LIV, bha)
(possible if MIL beat BHA)
Chelsea (BUR, BHA)
(possible if KIEV beat CHE or both MIL beat BHA and SWA beat MCI)

----------------------------------------------

Undetermined GW36/37 Doubles:
Brighton (NEW/ars, CAR)
(if BHA beat MIL and either CHE beat KIEV or MCI beat SWA)
Cardiff (ful/CRY, bha)
(if BHA beat MIL and either CHE beat KIEV or MCI beat SWA)

Possible Alternative GW36/37 Fixture:
CHE vs BHA
(possible if BHA beat MIL, KIEV beat CHE and SWA beat MCI)

----------------------------------------------

Odds-based probabilities of FA Cup QF Results, borrowed from BC's spreadsheet (percentage is chance of team winning):

MIL (39.33%) vs BHA (60.77%)
SWA (11.72%) vs MCI (88.28%)
WAT (55.75%) vs CRY (44.25%)

WOL vs MUN does not effect DGWs.

[blahblah]

Yeah. Chelsea having car BHA in GW32 is a racing certainty.

Such nice DGW's for Chels, City and United.

Which is why I'm tempted to go light then FH in 32 as I have 3 Lpool players plus Vardy.....

[TheRumourMill]

Ah, my mistake. It's Wolves themselves who play Burnley in their other match. That makes it a bit better for United. Watford have been poor away from home.

It's still a question mark for me though. The Wolves game should be tight.

Yeah Watford at home is a superb fixture, City and Liverpool certainly made it count recently. The Wolves game away will be tougher, however if Wolves have beaten United in the FA Cup quarter final then I imagine they will be resting players in the league game v United ahead of the FA cup semi final they would have just a few days later. Conversely if United have won the quarter final then I think we can be more confident of Jota, Doherty, Jiminez et al appearing in both GW32 fixtures.

So it all depends on the circumstances really.

[zipnolan]

Very useful list Stem, thank you....I briefly thought that Newcastle had two potentially good fixtures in GW35.... then I saw that one of them appears to be against themselves....

[Stemania]

Ah yes, Newcastle (SOT, CRY), not Newcastle (SOT, NEW).

[Ruth_NZ]

Just for my own purposes, I need to find out whether any team apart from Chelsea is likely to have a worthwhile DGW32 coupled with a worthwhile GW33 fixture.

Brighton can be discounted; even if they lose to Millwall and get the three fixtures it's SOU che tot 32-33. So they are out.
Palace would be OK but only if they lose at Watford in the FAC and Brighton beat Millwall. That would give HUD tot new 32-33. There is maybe a 33% chance of that; any other combination and they don't get the three fixtures.
Watford would only get the three fixtures if they lose to Palace but there is then the added complication that their missing fixture could just as easily go into GW32 or GW35. The potential GW32-3 would be mun SOT FUL, so pretty good. But you couldn't put the chance of that much above 25%.

I think they are the only ones apart from Chelsea that can get the combination I am looking for. If someone sees otherwise I'd like to be told.

Although the individual numbers are lower, the likelihood is that either Watford or Palace will end up with the DGW-SGW fixtures over 32-33, however. If Watford beat Palace then Palace will get the desired combination as long as Brighton beat Millwall and that is rated as a 60% chance more or less. Whereas if Palace beat Watford there is at least a 50% chance that Watford get the fixture set required. Maybe 60%.

So, in answer to my own question, it seems that there is a roughly 60% chance that either Watford or Palace will get a double in GW32 as well as a surviving fixture in GW33. Once again, if anyone sees a mistake in this assessment I'd like to be told if possible. Believe it or not it this will have an effect on my GW31 transfer and my strategy over the next weeks.

[Finisher1]

Those of you who are going to have TC32 as their top priority, how much gain do you expect to get over TC35?

I think it's safe to assume that Aguero (ful, CAR) is the best TC32 and Aubameyang (CRY, wol) is the best TC35. This should be reasonable. So now, how much more points do we expect TC32 score?

I guess in the most extreme scenario Aguero scores two hattricks in DGW32 (which is 34 points) and Aubameyang blanks twice and only starts once in DGW35 (which is 3 points). Now this is pretty much the most extreme outcome we can imagine and the thing is it's also extremely unlikely. So, I really don't think the absolute best case scenario of 31 points is good enough considering how extremely unlikely it is. It's extremely likely that the difference will be smaller.

If Arsenal go out from UEL tomorrow, then I really think Aubameyang is good to start both matches in DGW35, because Arsenal are desperate to get into UCL. Even if he wouldn't start both matches and plays just 135 minutes he should be odds-on to score decently.

I think the difference in the expected points between Aguero (ful, CAR) and Aubameyang (CRY, wol) is perhaps about 8 points for Aguero's advantage, and I think I'm even being a little generous here. It's not really a big difference and definitely not worth it to make compromises with your other decisions. FH should be a top priority.

Just my own opinion of course.

[blahblah]

MU or Wolves won't be blanking?

[Ruth_NZ]

Those of you who are going to have TC32 as their top priority, how much gain do you expect to get over TC35?

I think it's safe to assume that Aguero (ful, CAR) is the best TC32 and Aubameyang (CRY, wol) is the best TC35. This should be reasonable. So now, how much more points do we expect TC32 score?

I guess in the most extreme scenario Aguero scores two hattricks in DGW32 (which is 34 points) and Aubameyang blanks twice and only starts once in DGW35 (which is 3 points). Now this is pretty much the most extreme outcome we can imagine and the thing is it's also extremely unlikely. So, I really don't think the absolute best case scenario of 31 points is good enough considering how extremely unlikely it is. It's extremely likely that the difference will be smaller.

If Arsenal go out from UEL tomorrow, then I really think Aubameyang is good to start both matches in DGW35, because Arsenal are desperate to get into UCL. Even if he wouldn't start both matches and plays just 135 minutes he should be odds-on to score decently.

I think the difference in the expected points between Aguero (ful, CAR) and Aubameyang (CRY, wol) is perhaps about 8 points for Aguero's advantage, and I think I'm even being a little generous here. It's not really a big difference and definitely not worth it to make compromises with your other decisions. FH should be a top priority.

Speaking personally, it's not that the TC is my top priority. I'm trying to look at how to extract maximum advantage overall but with an emphasis on what gives me the best chance of making big gains, even if it also increases the chance of scoring less than what could be achieved by safety play. I want to increase the high/low margins because my team is at 150k in the OR.

I therefore look at upside. I would captain Sterling, not Aguero in GW32 and with ful CAR I think I'd be giving myself the best possible chance of a TC haul. A pretty good chance actually because as it stands I'd expect him to start twice and they are both plum fixtures. I agree about Aubameyang in GW35 - he was long pencilled-in as my likely TC - and it is true that if Arsenal go out of the EL his starts should be secure (though that's a real if because I think Arsenal may well turn Rennes over tomorrow). But even assuming they are out, I do not see Wolves away as a plum fixture by any means and Palace can also be quite resilient against the top teams. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see Sterling in GW32 to out-score Aubameyang in GW35 by more than 8 points, though I agree there is no guarantee. But I am looking for potential.

But there is another element to it, and that's the FH. I actually like some of my current players that will have a SGW in GW32; Vardy & Maddison for example. I also quite fancy Liverpool to get a CS against Spurs at Anfield and that usually means BPs in a game like that. I'd quite like to play Robertson or TAA. So I'm not all that convinced that the FH32 will be far better than what I will have by using 1-2 hits. The main sacrifice would be that I couldn't have both Hazard & Aguero. On the other hand, I do like the idea of FH35. I can see a deal of trouble coming down the pipe, especially with Spurs, City and United all reaching the CL QF stage. Predicting who will play twice may well be right awkward that week and in addition, many of the players I would like in 34 & 36-38 I'd be less keen on in GW35. This applies to City especially. I think GW35 might best be played with a team of certain doublers from ''smaller' teams (in the main) and that it could therefore be useful to go the way of WC34 FH35. There are therefore potential gains there to offset the potential losses of not using the FH in GW32.

In one way, I am in a somewhat untypical situation because I have no BB to concern myself with. Most that have it will use it in GW35 and I wish them luck with that, I don't think it will be easy to create a GW34 wildcard team that handles a BB in GW35 well and is ideally set up for GW36-38.

Anyways, all of this is in my mind. As is GW33, because if I take my preferred route my GW32 team needs to handle GW33 with only 1 FT. That's why it is of some interest to me as to whether there will be a team with a decent DGW32 and a decent GW33, particularly one that has cheap defenders. If I go the TC32 route then I'll be hoping that either Watford or Palace fit that bill.

[Nailer6245]

Assuming that most of the top 100k still have their FH chip left, what % do you think will play it now in BGW31?

It seems that many (myself included) will have 9/10 out this week, covering the most important bases: Hazard, Salah, Vardy, Rob/TAA, Wilson, Fraser, etc. I'm not too worried about losing ground on FHers who have an extra chelsea defender or maybe an extra Bournemouth attacker, but I'm curious as to how many players that will be. If it's more than 20-30% I'd be surprised.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Assuming that most of the top 100k still have their FH chip left, what % do you think will play it now in BGW31?

It seems that many (myself included) will have 9/10 out this week, covering the most important bases: Hazard, Salah, Vardy, Rob/TAA, Wilson, Fraser, etc. I'm not too worried about losing ground on FHers who have an extra chelsea defender or maybe an extra Bournemouth attacker, but I'm curious as to how many players that will be. If it's more than 20-30% I'd be surprised.

I don't think 20-30% will be far out.

[Stemania]

Let's borrow the following odds-based probabilities from BC (and similarly use a slightly rougher odds-based 97% chance that Chelsea go through in the EL)

MIL (39.33%) vs BHA (60.77%)
SWA (11.72%) vs MCI (88.28%)
WAT (55.75%) vs CRY (44.25%)
CHE proceed vs Kiev (97.00%)

Then, assuming that when a fixture could go in either GW32 vs GW35 then the chance of each is 50/50, then the following are the odds of each double happening based on the implications above. (I don't think I made any errors, but as always it's very possible. )


GW32 Doubles:

Brighton (SOT, che/CAR) --- 100% (94.99%/5.01%)
Man United (WAT, wol) ----- 100%
Wolves (bur, MUN) ---------- 100%
Chelsea (car, BHA) ---------- 94.99%
Cardiff (CHE, mci) ---------- 88.28%
Man City (ful, CAR) --------- 88.28%
Watford (mun, FUL/SOT) -- 77.88% (27.88%/50,00%)
Palace (HUD, tot) ----------- 60.77%
Tottenham (liv, CRY) -------- 60.77%
Southampton (bha, wat) --- 50.00%
Fulham (MCI, wat) ---------- 27.88%
Newcastle (ars, cry) -------- 17.40%
Cardiff (CHE, bha) ---------- 5.01%


GW35 Doubles:

Arsenal (CRY, wol) --------------- 100%
Brighton (wol, che/CAR/tot) -- 100% (5.01%/34.22%/60.77%)
Man City (TOT, mun) ------------ 100%
Man United (eve, MCI) ---------- 100%
Tottenham (mci, BHA/CRY) ---- 100% (60.77%/39.33%)
Wolves (BHA, ARS) -------------- 100%
Palace (ars, new/tot) ---------- 78.17% (17.40%/60.77%)
Watford (hud, FUL/SOT) ------- 77.88% (27.88%/50.00%)
Southampton (new, wat) ------ 50.0%
Cardiff (LIV, bha) --------------- 34.22%
Fulham (bou, wat) ------------- 27.88%
Newcastle (SOT, CRY) ---------- 26.89%


GW36/37 Doubles:

Brighton (NEW/ars, CAR) -- 60.05% (30.03%/30.03%)
Cardiff (ful/CRY, bha) ------ 60.05% (30.03%/30.03%)
Brighton (NEW/ars, che) --- 0.73% (0.37%/0.37%)
Chelsea (mun/WAT, BHA) -- 0.73% (1.19%/1.19%)

[Stemania]

it seems that there is a roughly 60% chance that either Watford or Palace will get a double in GW32 as well as a surviving fixture in GW33. Once again, if anyone sees a mistake in this assessment I'd like to be told if possible.

....so to answer this question. A similar calculation gives this possibility a 55.8% chance, so slightly gloomier I'm afraid, but a very decent estimate.

[Smurphy Paw]

Assuming that most of the top 100k still have their FH chip left, what % do you think will play it now in BGW31?

It seems that many (myself included) will have 9/10 out this week, covering the most important bases: Hazard, Salah, Vardy, Rob/TAA, Wilson, Fraser, etc. I'm not too worried about losing ground on FHers who have an extra chelsea defender or maybe an extra Bournemouth attacker, but I'm curious as to how many players that will be. If it's more than 20-30% I'd be surprised.

I don't think 20-30% will be far out.

I don’t have the Top-100k figures.
FPL Discovery reports on Overall and Top-10k. The proportion of Free Hits left are very similar at 75% and 78%.
So we can reasonably presume that around three quarters of the Top-100k will also have it to play.
Will a third of them use it in GW31 (25% of sample)? That sounds a bit high to me

[Ruth_NZ]

it seems that there is a roughly 60% chance that either Watford or Palace will get a double in GW32 as well as a surviving fixture in GW33. Once again, if anyone sees a mistake in this assessment I'd like to be told if possible.

....so to answer this question. A similar calculation gives this possibility a 55.8% chance, so slightly gloomier I'm afraid, but a very decent estimate.

Thanks.

[Ironfist]

Let's borrow the following odds-based probabilities from BC (and similarly use a slightly rougher odds-based 97% chance that Chelsea go through in the EL)

MIL (39.33%) vs BHA (60.77%)
SWA (11.72%) vs MCI (88.28%)
WAT (55.75%) vs CRY (44.25%)
CHE proceed vs Kiev (97.00%)

Then, assuming that when a fixture could go in either GW32 vs GW35 then the chance of each is 50/50, then the following are the odds of each double happening based on the implications above. (I don't think I made any errors, but as always it's very possible. )


GW32 Doubles:

Brighton (SOT, che/CAR) --- 100% (94.99%/5.01%)
Man United (WAT, wol) ----- 100%
Wolves (bur, MUN) ---------- 100%
Chelsea (car, BHA) ---------- 94.99%
Cardiff (CHE, mci) ---------- 88.28%
Man City (ful, CAR) --------- 88.28%
Watford (mun, FUL/SOT) -- 77.88% (27.88%/50,00%)
Palace (HUD, tot) ----------- 60.77%
Tottenham (liv, CRY) -------- 60.77%
Southampton (bha, wat) --- 50.00%
Fulham (MCI, wat) ---------- 27.88%
Newcastle (ars, cry) -------- 17.40%
Cardiff (CHE, bha) ---------- 5.01%


GW35 Doubles:

Arsenal (CRY, wol) --------------- 100%
Brighton (wol, che/CAR/tot) -- 100% (5.01%/34.22%/60.77%)
Man City (TOT, mun) ------------ 100%
Man United (eve, MCI) ---------- 100%
Tottenham (mci, BHA/CRY) ---- 100% (60.77%/39.33%)
Wolves (BHA, ARS) -------------- 100%
Palace (ars, new/tot) ---------- 78.17% (17.40%/60.77%)
Watford (hud, FUL/SOT) ------- 77.88% (27.88%/50.00%)
Southampton (new, wat) ------ 50.0%
Cardiff (LIV, bha) --------------- 34.22%
Fulham (bou, wat) ------------- 27.88%
Newcastle (SOT, CRY) ---------- 26.89%


GW36/37 Doubles:

Brighton (NEW/ars, CAR) -- 60.05% (30.03%/30.03%)
Cardiff (ful/CRY, bha) ------ 60.05% (30.03%/30.03%)
Brighton (NEW/ars, che) --- 0.73% (0.37%/0.37%)
Chelsea (mun/WAT, BHA) -- 0.73% (1.19%/1.19%)

Incredible piece of work. Thank you.

[johnjoe107]

Need some advice. What is the best strategy?

Free Hit GW32 & Wildcard GW33

Or

Wildcard GW32 & Free Hit GW33


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[Eldorado fenomeno]

Need some advice. What is the best strategy?

Free Hit GW32 & Wildcard GW33

Or

Wildcard GW32 & Free Hit GW33


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm going for WC32 & FH33 - packing ManUTD, Wolves and City players.
Manutd and Wolves are not playing on GW33, but come back with strong GW34 & GW35 fixtures.

[johnjoe107]

I'm going for WC32 & FH33 - packing ManUTD, Wolves and City players.
Manutd and Wolves are not playing on GW33, but come back with strong GW34 & GW35 fixtures.[/quote]

City probably won't be playing GW33 as well. That strategy will leave you quite light in 33.

[Eldorado fenomeno]

So Free Hitting GW33 makes even more sense

[johnjoe107]

Ur using ur free hit in 33, my mistake.

[raoul]

...the following are the odds of each double happening based on the implications above...

Incredible piece of work. Thank you.

Wow indeed.

Question - I am looking at all those 100% doubles and wondering why fixtures have not been rearranged already? Are they really 100.0%? Is it down to potential tv slots? Or just a case of let's get the Cup done, no need to rush etc?

[Stemania]

It's a mixture of things. The main driver is that there are certain 'slots' set aside by the PL precisely for the rearranged fixtures (those are 32 and 35 this year).

For some teams, the knowledge that they have a DGW in a particular GW is known (there are only certain places the fixtures can fit), it's just not know which precise fixture it is. For example, Spurs will definitely have a DGW35 - this will be against Brighton if Brighton beat Millwall, and it will be against Palace if Millwall beat Brighton. Similarly, Brighton have at least two games to rearrange so will definitely have one match in each slot.

The only fixture 100% known in terms of specific opponents, and is not officially arranged, is the Wolves vs Arsenal GW35 game - there is no particular explanation for this, other than convenience of announcing all the fixtures at once. The rogue announcements so far have been for TV purposes (Manchester derby & WOL vs MUN) and, in Spurs case, the announcement of first game in new stadium.

[blahblah]

I'm going for WC32 & FH33 - packing ManUTD, Wolves and City players.
Manutd and Wolves are not playing on GW33, but come back with strong GW34 & GW35 fixtures.

City probably won't be playing GW33 as well. That strategy will leave you quite light in 33.
[/quote]

Hence the FH... I've just s rolled down and thst option is discussed a fee pages back

[johnjoe107]

Need some advice. What is the best strategy?

Free Hit GW32 & Wildcard GW33

Or

Wildcard GW32 & Free Hit GW33


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm going for WC32 & FH33 - packing ManUTD, Wolves and City players.
Manutd and Wolves are not playing on GW33, but come back with strong GW34 & GW35 fixtures.

Thinking about it, it doesn't it really matter in what order you use Free Hit and Wildcard in GW32 & 33? Or am I missing something?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[raoul]

Need some advice. What is the best strategy?

Free Hit GW32 & Wildcard GW33

Or

Wildcard GW32 & Free Hit GW33


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm going for WC32 & FH33 - packing ManUTD, Wolves and City players.
Manutd and Wolves are not playing on GW33, but come back with strong GW34 & GW35 fixtures.

Thinking about it, it doesn't it really matter in what order you use Free Hit and Wildcard in GW32 & 33? Or am I missing something?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you FH in 32, your WC 33 will presumably need to make use of whatever GW33 fixtures remain - which might not be many.

If you WC in GW32 you will focus on core teams likely to be strong in GW34-38 (and especially in DGW35, I suspect).

The point here is that GW33 is more of an oddity compared with other weeks than GW32 is, so a FH33 surely makes more sense.