Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

[Joccki_10]

A Bournemouth keeper is the other option. Will Boruc keep his place?

Will they keep more clean sheets is the bigger question I think.

[Smurphy Paw]

A Bournemouth keeper is the other option. Will Boruc keep his place?

Will they keep more clean sheets is the bigger question I think.

I’m far from convinced about either Leicester or Bournemouth. Clean sheets are few and far between
However 2 points plus saves are better than no points

[Neath boy]

I have made some poor decisions since Christmas, and now have a squad I don't like.

This week has been a disaster for me. Season ending but I will keep battling to finish as high as possible.

[dod]

Stemania, Joccki and Skip all smashing it this season (and that's just this page ). Nice work people .

[dod]

I have made some poor decisions since Christmas, and now have a squad I don't like.

This week has been a disaster for me. Season ending but I will keep battling to finish as high as possible.

2.8k OR isn't exactly a tragedy .

[Neath boy]

Man City midfielders have trolled me all season. Sane off in the 59th minute ffs! never again!

[Ironfist]

Man City midfielders have trolled me all season. Sane off in the 59th minute ffs! never again!

You realise of course Sane will score against Chelsea...

[Wyld]

Is anyone using Expected Goals/Expected Assists statistics religiously to determine their transfers for the week? How's that working out? Asking out of genuine interest...

[FranckKessie]

Where are you guys with Mane?

I am considering whether to do Sane Mane this week with my second free transfer. My bench is rather strong containing at least one of Shaw(ful),WBA(WHU) or Digne(wat) so would you perhaps opt to bench Sane (or play?) and have an extra free for GW27 where we more knowledge of who will blank?

Ideally I think I'd rather go with Liverpool double defence. They are remain better value than Mane who have delivered FPL points lately and is a differential both of which I could use
The assets of other teams (LEI,BOU,WHU) with no blanks look best in MID and FWD positions. Fraser,Wilson,Anderson and Arnautovic look like good prospects for the future.
The problem however is that I cannot get in a Liverpool defender this week and the other teams need an extra week before the fixtures turn good. Mane have a great fixture this week and if Spurs or Che should get a GW31 match then I can go for one of their defensive assets instead.

[Bobby Fetta]

Is anyone using Expected Goals/Expected Assists statistics religiously to determine their transfers for the week? How's that working out? Asking out of genuine interest...

I use expected goals quite a lot. I wouldn't say religiously but it is a big part of my assessment of how players are doing as I don't get to watch much football with my own eyes. i.e. is this a genuine run of form for a player or team, or just random luck that they've scored a few goals. Hence the charts I sometimes post here.

Don't use expected assists at all.

I started using xG when it got added to the FFS members area last season. I had objectively my best season ever last year and in my mind gave quite a lot of credit to xG data. This year hasn't been so good though! I think its important to remember that real goals are useful too - something the casual player often does better than those of us who waste our lives thinking about fpl

[Stemania]

I use xG very often, but as just one part of a whole host of factors. Essentially it has replaced my looking at the plethora of SoT, SiB style stats, and made that aspect of my stat prep far more efficient.

I recommend having a read of Patrician's RMT to see an explicit reliance in practice.

Sorry (or not ), for unusually short answer on my fave topic, but I managed to break my hand playing football 2 days ago.

[Smurphy Paw]

Sorry (or not ), for unusually short answer on my fave topic, but I managed to break my hand playing football 2 days ago.

Ouch

[Ironfist]

I use xG very often, but as just one part of a whole host of factors. Essentially it has replaced my looking at the plethora of SoT, SiB style stats, and made that aspect of my stat prep far more efficient.

I recommend having a read of Patrician's RMT to see an explicit reliance in practice.

Sorry (or not ), for unusually short answer on my fave topic, but I managed to break my hand playing football 2 days ago.

That is the worst excuse I ever heard to avoid changing nappies!

[Stemania]

It's my wife I feel sorry for, have essentially rendered her a single parent for 5-6 weeks.

Where are you guys with Mane?

I've gotten him in this week.

Have nothing big against the Liverpool defensive doubleup, but with a FH32 planned I'm thinking of the players I might want for 31 & 33. As thinks stand, there aren't many expensive attacking players that stand out. Salah will be in just about everyone's squads I'm sure, but other than that at the moment the pickings look slim. Chelsea going out the cup would add Haz and Higuain, but even then. So, as just about the only current high end non-Salah attacker in the game with great fixtures now and in 31 & 33, Mane seems a bit like goldust atm - or at worst a very safe bet.

Wilson (& Arnie?) to be added in a few weeks most likely for me. Maguire in this week too.

[FranckKessie]

It's my wife I feel sorry for, have essentially rendered her a single parent for 5-6 weeks.

Where are you guys with Mane?

I've gotten him in this week.

Have nothing big against the Liverpool defensive doubleup, but with a FH32 planned I'm thinking of the players I might want for 31 & 33. As thinks stand, there aren't many expensive attacking players that stand out. Salah will be in just about everyone's squads I'm sure, but other than that at the moment the pickings look slim. Chelsea going out the cup would add Haz and Higuain, but even then. So, as just about the only current high end non-Salah attacker in the game with great fixtures now and in 31 & 33, Mane seems a bit like goldust atm - or at worst a very safe bet.

Wilson (& Arnie?) to be added in a few weeks most likely for me. Maguire in this week too.

I've gone for immediate points as well (hopefully) and he is in. Next up is probably a Leicester defender. Chillwell,Pereira and Maguire all seems like options, but have to look at my budget going forward.

[fred1266]

hello everyone looking for some advice

in my money league am currently 13th, if i make it to 10th or below i receive a prize

so was wondering how should i move forward should i start monitoring who the players bring in or just continue playing my game ideally i would like to finish 4th which am 38 points from

so any advice on approach would be greatly appreciated

[Stemania]

38 points is a very small margin at this stage of the season. Defo play as normal till at least after the blanks/first double imo.

[fred1266]

thanks stem

[Finisher1]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I looked back at a few reasons why I decided not to bring in Aguero for GW25-26:

Aguero could be favoured for the crucial match against Chelsea, which might see him benched for Everton after having started at home to Arsenal. However, he could just as easily be benched against the Gunners and started at Goodison Park.

Either way, it does seem very unlikely that either one of Jesus or Aguero will start both matches in Double Gameweek 25, making signing one of them beforehand a questionable move.

https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... an-update/

If we accept that poll winner Aguero is likely to be benched for one of the Double Gameweek 25 matches, and treat each one like a single Gameweek, his captain credentials to drop somewhat. When competing with Salah away at West Ham, Son against Newcastle, Pogba away at Leicester or even Hazard at home to Huddersfield, handing Aguero the captaincy for just a home match against Arsenal doesn’t feel quite right. The same would be true, to a lesser extent, if he started only against Everton.

https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... meweek-25/


Did these articles make any sense in the first place? Was it very unlikely that Aguero would start all these three matches, and hence we can just conclude Aguero owners (and captainers) got incredibly fluke points from him? Or is the joke on me for trusting source that don't know what they are talking about?

[From4corners]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I looked back at a few reasons why I
Did these articles make any sense in the first place? Was it very unlikely that Aguero would start all these three matches, and hence we can just conclude Aguero owners (and captainers) got incredibly fluke points from him? Or is the joke on me for trusting source that don't know what they are talking about?

The latter, one of the reasons I hardly visit FFS and don't regard whatever they write as the holy grail or what not.

Also, Aguero is a big game player and Pep is Pep. No matter what logic or historical data you throw at it, it's hard to figure out Pep's ways.

[Finisher1]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I looked back at a few reasons why I
Did these articles make any sense in the first place? Was it very unlikely that Aguero would start all these three matches, and hence we can just conclude Aguero owners (and captainers) got incredibly fluke points from him? Or is the joke on me for trusting source that don't know what they are talking about?

The latter, one of the reasons I hardly visit FFS and don't regard whatever they write as the holy grail or what not.

Also, Aguero is a big game player and Pep is Pep. No matter what logic or historical data you throw at it, it's hard to figure out Pep's ways.

Interesting. FFS are a profit-making organisation, they actually make money with their advice (even if most articles are free, they effectively advertise their chargeable services). So it's interesting if you are suggesting their advice is not worthy?

I can accept Aguero is a big game player and he can score six goals in two matches. But FFS were very loud about "Aguero being very unlikely to start both matches in DGW25", so it's peculiar if this advice had no credibility in the first place?

[Patrician]

Before the three matches, I would say that it would be correct to say that Aguero was unlikely to start all three. For double gameweeks I normally view it as a guarantee of one match and a chance of two (for attacking players at clubs with big squads). For that reason, I wouldn't shy away from a rotation risk player for a double gameweek, because I never expect two full games. As it turns out, this was a crucial time and if anyone managed to have Aguero, Sterling and Laporte they are laughing. I had three city assets and only picked out one of those (nothing much from Sane and De Bruyne).

Of course I was very lucky that Aguero got two hattricks, but at the same time I will always play my TC on a DGW player, and I only have five candidates always in mind (Aguero, Salah, Kane, and to a lesser extent Hazard and Auba). Salah is my prefered pick, but he has no doubles, Kane 18/19 is not as prolific as Kane 17/18 and injured, Chelsea are all over the shop and Auba hasn't quite got himself into the regular hattrick club for me. In that context, with City very much in squeeky bum time, and needing a differential pick, the TC Aguero was the punt that made sense to me. Despite what FFS might have had to say on the matter.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I looked back at a few reasons why I
Did these articles make any sense in the first place? Was it very unlikely that Aguero would start all these three matches, and hence we can just conclude Aguero owners (and captainers) got incredibly fluke points from him? Or is the joke on me for trusting source that don't know what they are talking about?

The latter, one of the reasons I hardly visit FFS and don't regard whatever they write as the holy grail or what not.

Also, Aguero is a big game player and Pep is Pep. No matter what logic or historical data you throw at it, it's hard to figure out Pep's ways.

Interesting. FFS are a profit-making organisation, they actually make money with their advice (even if most articles are free, they effectively advertise their chargeable services). So it's interesting if you are suggesting their advice is not worthy?

I can accept Aguero is a big game player and he can score six goals in two matches. But FFS were very loud about "Aguero being very unlikely to start both matches in DGW25", so it's peculiar if this advice had no credibility in the first place?

FFS may be a profit-making organisation but every article is merely someone's 'opinion'/'interpretation.' From memory, I think Aguero has been benched twice so far this season when he was fit so saying that he is 'very unlikely' to start both matches was, in my opinion, misleading. Lots of people have written lots of words on likely City line-ups, most of it hot air especially when it comes to predicting line-ups for particular GWs.

[blahblah]

Also, Aguero is a big game player and Pep is Pep.

And Jesus has been pants?

blah nails it, lol/size]

[Stemania]

Tbh, I just went for the two City attackers I thought had the best chance of playing all three - so Kun & KDB. Sterling and Sane were most likely going to get 2 each I thought.

I had FFS down as being far too gloomy on Kun's prospects, especially given that all the fixtures were tough and it was Sun-Wed-Sun - Pep doesn't just rotate for the sake of it and they were behind Liverpool. If it was an easy home game on the Tuesday instead, that would have been different for sure. I had it in my head as sortof 70-75% that Kun would start both DGW fixtures, which is why I TC-d - but actually thought KDB was most likely of all- that was put to bed when he went off with cramp on 87 in game 1.

FISO is monetized too btw, just not as successfully - and no opinion here is gospel either.

[zipnolan]

You can be sure that if FFS made a mistake they will be kicking themselves just as hard as anyone else is. I've noticed that, pretty much whatever the week, Man City are one of the last teams whose line-up they try to predict. Must be frustrating for them, as they very clearly want to be right about everything. Any deviation from their advice is likely to have a much bigger impact on weekly movements, positive or negative - they create their own variance.

[blahblah]

They can say: No idea, or any 2 from 3 etc?

Did they have Mendy starting? He was due to, but was pulled out late on, accirding to Sky "Commentator".

[Finisher1]

Tbh, I just went for the two City attackers I thought had the best chance of playing all three - so Kun & KDB. Sterling and Sane were most likely going to get 2 each I thought.

I had FFS down as being far too gloomy on Kun's prospects, especially given that all the fixtures were tough and it was Sun-Wed-Sun - Pep doesn't just rotate for the sake of it and they were behind Liverpool. If it was an easy home game on the Tuesday instead, that would have been different for sure. I had it in my head as sortof 70-75% that Kun would start both DGW fixtures, which is why I TC-d - but actually thought KDB was most likely of all- that was put to bed when he went off with cramp on 87 in game 1.

FISO is monetized too btw, just not as successfully - and no opinion here is gospel either.

Oh, I didn't mean it makes their opinions gospel. I just meant the fact that they are a profit-making organisation makes them open for criticism.

By the way, now this very same guy who gave that gloomy advice seems to be very confident that Aguero is now nailed for good:

In the last four matches, he has proved without a shadow of a doubt that he is no longer under threat of rotation from Gabriel Jesus (£10.0m).

https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/ ... at-tricks/

This guy is always very confident of his advice, isn't he? Personally I wouldn't be so confident about Aguero starting GW28 WHU (H) because it's just after two crucial matches in UCL and Carabao Cup final. Surely Aguero is nailed for those two matches, hence Jesus could possibly start GW28 WHU (H). It would be quite hilarious if that happened.

Here is the FPL team of this guy. Not in the top 100k until this season:

https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/2032/history

[Smurphy Paw]

I find it easier to understand Pep if I don’t think of it through an FPL/fantasy football lens. He has an enviable ability to manage a large squad of high profile, often world class players and to keep everybody positive and motivated. That means giving all of them pitch time, but not necessarily in equal proportion or distribution.

For me the narrative leading into the recent games included City being up against it for the first time in a long time. If ever there was a time for a manager to support his talisman when he was in form, this was it. That’s never a guarantee, but we don’t see the data against which decisions are made - who is at peak fitness, who is managing a niggle or a bug. Effective midfield rotation gave licence for Pep to run with Aguero, others doing more of the running (although Kun has improved in this respect over the last couple of years).
FWIW, I wrote in my blog before that I thought he’d get 120 minutes and I suspect that had the Everton game gone to plan sooner that might have been the case. We’ll never know.

PS There’s no, ‘I told you so’, about this. I also lost points by bringing in and taking out Sané. I guess that the point I am making is that I went into this with my eyes open and so I was better able to roll with the punches

[Stemania]

I just meant the fact that they are a profit-making organisation makes them open for criticism.

It was a free-to-view article you linked though, right? They have ads on those since, like FISO, they need to pay for server costs etc (and for a site their size some part time staff).

The accuracy of paid-for info is another question, but it's pretty clear all their articles are essentially opinion pieces and don't necessarily represent the view of the FFS leadership team as a whole. Anyone in the community can write and submit one for a start!

Incidentally, the BBC have started producing regular FPL articles now too - and they are....well...not better.