Blanks, DGWs, and those pesky chips (18/19) - Summary in OP

[Stemania]

So are Chelsea likely to have a DGW over the next few weeks? I think this was mentioned but can’t see where the clash is? Tempted to ditch Alonso for VVD before they play Arsenal but will hold if a double is on the cards.

The winner of Chelsea vs Spurs League Cup semi will have a blank in GW27 and reasonable chance of a DGW25 before that (depending on what the FA decide to do with the GW27 fixture). The loser will have no DGWs until GW32 at the earliest.

[pokeface]

Cheers, gives me a slight headache then.

[No Way Jose]

Injuries are tempting me to WC this week, but reading this I’m not sure. Best to hold? Or worth gambling on a spurs or Chelsea DGW in 25 and take a few hits later?

I’ve already taken a hit this week and have Arnie, camarasa, Ings and TAA flagged. Will probably just take a hit to get TAA out as he’s long term

[Bobby Fetta]

Southampton out of FA Cup means no blanks or double gameweeks for Liverpool I think

[Aldershot Rejects]

Southampton out of FA Cup means no blanks or double gameweeks for Liverpool I think

correct.
It also means that most of us have an interesting decision in the dgw as to whether to play any sgw Liverpool players (especially when they play Cardiff)

[tarkens]

no brainer imo, Salah is not going anywhere if his sgw is Cardiff

[Beerfuelledman]

Good opportunity to get in some Liverpool defenders like Fabinho & Milner.
No, wait....

[Sutter Kane]

I think for me a lot will depend on how similar GW31 and GW33 are in terms of players I'd like to have. GW31 is very easy to plan for without even thinking of using a wildcard or Free Hit before GW32. At that point though, final details of the DGW schedule appear - the ideal option would be FH32 in order to bounce back to GW31 team for GW33 with a transfer to use then WC in GW34 before BB/TC GW35. There does appear to be some possibilities for BB before all this carnage begins. TC could also be deployed on Hazard at GW25 should they get a double - I don't think you're going to get much better than those two home games if Chelsea get to League Cup final and that DGW is announced. He's virtually certain to start both as well. All very much up in the air at the moment but a few pieces of useful information will surface in the next week or so with the results of the two cup competitions.

At this moment, I'm assuming GW33 will be different enough to GW31 that I'll want to FH in GW33 which means a likely WC in GW32. Still got the issue of BBoost and TC though. With the way the DGWs/blanks have fallen, might be good to get BBoost out the way if the opportunity presents itself. (Australia getting past Uzbek then getting through the Asia Cup game on Friday would help this...for me )

[Finisher1]

TC could also be deployed on Hazard at GW25 should they get a double - I don't think you're going to get much better than those two home games if Chelsea get to League Cup final and that DGW is announced. He's virtually certain to start both as well. All very much up in the air at the moment but a few pieces of useful information will surface in the next week or so with the results of the two cup competitions.

We will know it for sure until GW24 whether or not DGW25 will happen.

[redmen82]

If I have BB and TC would you be looking to use one of them soon and use the other gw 35?

[Finisher1]

If I have BB and TC would you be looking to use one of them soon and use the other gw 35?

Regarding BB, it depends what your bench is. No reason to use it soon unless you have an exceptionally good bench in some gameweek. Regarding TC, I will almost certainly play it during DGW.

[Nailer6245]

Am I right in thinking that we'll have a clearer idea of DGWs etc after this coming weekend of cup games?

[Ruth_NZ]

Am I right in thinking that we'll have a clearer idea of DGWs etc after this coming weekend of cup games?

We already know the DGWs (the main ones). We will know about any DGW25 before GW24 begins (though I personally very much doubt it will happen). And we will know more about which fixtures are likely to survive in GW31 & 33 and which teams will blank in GW27 (we'll know that this Thursday). So, yes, by the time GW24 arrives we'll know a fair bit more.

[raoul]

Could a PL game be brought forward to Feb 16 and be played alongside fa cup 5th round matches? Say if MC and Everton both get knocked out? And if so does that mean a double for GW 26?

[Bobby Fetta]

Could a PL game be brought forward to Feb 16 and be played alongside fa cup 5th round matches? Say if MC and Everton both get knocked out? And if so does that mean a double for GW 26?

Yes, if they were both to get knocked out that would seem the logical thing to happen. I'm fairly sure the equivalent has happened in previous seasons. They would need to get knocked out in the first match, rather than in a replay, though I think to give enough time. Both Everton and City losing first off seems quite unlikely to me though - well the City part at least

[snout]

Then there's always the possibility of a big snow dump creating havoc.

[Magic]

Then there's always the possibility of a big snow dump creating havoc.

That'll be snow joke.

[TheRumourMill]

Actual evidence of someone, be it the premier league or Man City themselves, considering a DGW25.

https://twitter.com/BenCrellin/status/1 ... 3296924677

[Stemania]

Good quote spot dino and TRM. GW25 is the sensible and most likely place to move the games to, the only barrier left being the FA's organisational skills. (Edit: other than cup replays or crazy Burton comebacks getting in the way of course.)

As someone who recently bought in two City attackers in anticipation, here's hoping it actually gets finalised!

[Ruth_NZ]

1. Chance that neither City nor Everton require a FAC4 replay and that Burnley don't beat City: c. 65%
2. Chance that the FA/PL have their act together enough for them to bring the game forward to GW25 at very tight notice and that they consider that kicking the can down the road isn't more sensible given that the game could be squeezed into GW29 at a push and that GW32, GW35, GW36 or GW37 could be used as long as City don't reach the SF of both the CL and the FAC: 50% shall we say?
3. Chance that a GW25 midweek game would be accepted by both clubs (City would play Wednesday-Sunday but for Everton it would be Wednesday-Saturday): 80%?
4. Chance that police, broadcasters and other interested parties would be happy with a GW25 re-schedule at short notice: 75% perhaps?

A DGW25 for City must get through all those hurdles. Most of the percentages are my estimation but hopefully not unreasonable. If they are in the ballpark then there is an 19.5% chance of it happening and it could easily fall at the first hurdle; Millwall v Everton resulting in a draw certainly wouldn't be an outlandish outcome.

That's my calculation of it anyway.

[snout]

Then there's always the possibility of a big snow dump creating havoc.

That'll be snow joke.

Currently tipping it down with snow in Finchley.

[Smurphy Paw]

^^ I’d agree that the odds are against. I don’t think the actual percentage matters much though given the benefit of waiting to make this week’s transfers

[Stemania]

Your percentages are overly-gloomy there imo, Ruth, for a few reasons.

A week and a half is generally fine for match arrangement - indeed, there are only 7-10 days between the FA Cup 4th games and the replays - the point being that much of the arrangement is done behind the scenes based on the unknown outcomes of other games. There are just under 2 weeks between CL quarters and semis etc. (Edited to remove an inaccurate fact about 5th round)

Additionally, TV companies have a vested interest in the game being in a week without European football, since (I seem to recall) PL TV coverage is not allowed to coincide with European coverage. For example, when Southampton vs Arsenal was arranged for a European week (GW36) in 2016/17 it was not shown on UK TV. Additionally, clubs themselves have very little say (if any) in the dates on which games are rearranged, I believe.

Of course there are factors that make DGW25 tricky (and in some circumstances impossible), we can all agree on that, but there are issues with all of the potential places. I'd personally place the odds nearer 40%, maybe even slightly higher given the precedent set by the FA last season - so fairly comfrtably the most likely gameweek of those available.

Edit 2 (an hour later ): Ah, so the other contributing factor that I meant to write, but apparently forgot, is that in this case any behind the scenes prep re policing etc for the existence of a game in GW25 midweek is all being made regardless; because everyone must prepare for the possibility of Everton having a home replay with Millwall. So if they're already prepreparing for that, that's a lot of the work for a potential Everton vs City fixture at the same ground already done!

(The same is true of Burnley should Spurs progress)

[Stemania]

Speaking of estimating fixture likelihoods using percentages of factors, it looks like BC has just updated his bookie-based percentages for the GW31 blanks:

GW31
Everton vs Chelsea (80.50% blank)
Man United vs Man City (79.66%)
Wolves vs Arsenal (65.68%)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace (63.53%)
West Ham vs Huddersfield (43.22%)
Brighton vs Cardiff (27.93%)
Watford vs Southampton (27.93%)
Bournemouth vs Newcastle (24.20%)
Burnley vs Leicester (6.05%)

Fulham vs Liverpool (0%)

with a current projected 4.19 blanks. All to be superseded/updated this weekend of course.

An additional caveat (to the usual one of them being based on bookies odds) is that it's unclear whether the odds of the very small chance of the GW27 fixtures ending up in GW31 are taken into account (due to GW27 blankers going out of the cup but their GW31 opponents progressing to the QFs) - though the margin of error in the sheet percentages is surely far far greater than the chance of this happening.

One noteable thing is that this projected number is on the lower end of the normal blank tally - presumably due to the large number of all PL ties in the 4th round! So it could turn out that both 'big' DGWs are slightly less big than we've seen recently.

[pokeface]

Sorry if this is a bit of a noob question, but the DGW’s are not something I have paid attention to as much as I should have done in previous years, I still wake up in cold sweats some nights about the year I decided to TC Andy Carroll instead of Payet in GW37 and lost my mini league.

Anyway I digress..

We usually get 2 DGW’s a season right? And sometimes 3? (It was early last year iirc). So can we say with any likelihood that we are going to definitely have 3 this year?

Or do we usually have 3?

[Archy]

So Ruth thinks there’s a 19.5% chance of Man City rescheduling to GW25, Stem thinks there’s a >33% chance (it being the most likely outcome out of 3) and I think there’s a 100% chance I’m going to wait and see what actually happens before I worry myself about it

[Finisher1]

Brilliant posts again Stemania. I think Stemania and BC are established DGW experts, it's based on their posts on this subject over the years. They clearly have a deep understanding how these things work, I just listen to what they say on this subject.

[Ruth_NZ]

I'll just stop posting my inexpert views then.

[wonkypenguin]

the year I decided to TC Andy Carroll instead of Payet in GW37 and lost my mini league.

Funniest thing I've read on here for a long time

[raoul]

Is Man C v West Ham on the Tuesday after the Cup Final at risk? Presumably it could be pushed a day back to the Wednesday assuming Burton fall a goal or two short tonight?