Patrician's Crystal Ball
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Nice thread this, Patrician, keep it up please!
I'm particularly interested in your observation about Auba and his conversion rate, though LamebrainEddy has a very good point on the xG front. He's an interesting one to predict given a new manager and likely a new 4atb system - if Emery reverts to his long-favoured 4231 then Auba suddenly looks wider to me and potentially less likely to be involved than last season. Maybe Lacazette could be the one to have, but in the 433 of Emery's PSG it could be that Auba improves his output, with the team just being better all round.
I find it very hard to predict (in view of LbE's point) whether Arsenal will continue to provide higher quality chances, as it may be that Auba's unique pace and movement/unknown factor was just as big a factor in their occurrence (vs the sheer quality of passes to him). Though it seems very unlikely to me that Arsenal as a rule should provide higher quality chances than the other top teams with their creative powers - so maybe we should indeed expect a little less of Auba as you suggest.
I'm particularly interested in your observation about Auba and his conversion rate, though LamebrainEddy has a very good point on the xG front. He's an interesting one to predict given a new manager and likely a new 4atb system - if Emery reverts to his long-favoured 4231 then Auba suddenly looks wider to me and potentially less likely to be involved than last season. Maybe Lacazette could be the one to have, but in the 433 of Emery's PSG it could be that Auba improves his output, with the team just being better all round.
I find it very hard to predict (in view of LbE's point) whether Arsenal will continue to provide higher quality chances, as it may be that Auba's unique pace and movement/unknown factor was just as big a factor in their occurrence (vs the sheer quality of passes to him). Though it seems very unlikely to me that Arsenal as a rule should provide higher quality chances than the other top teams with their creative powers - so maybe we should indeed expect a little less of Auba as you suggest.
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I will try! Next up, the defence. I have been convinced over the last few months that a premium defence is key, so lets get that set in stone before I get tempted by all the exciting midfield and forward talents.
Yummy. Nailed on, clean sheet grabbing, occasional attacking returns, realtively cheap. Whats not to like? They are all much of a muchness.
Mendy is very interesting, Awesome stats in his few minutes last term. Back in pre-season despite the World Cup. If I think he plays. he should be first on my team sheet. Defintiely want a Man City, so him or Otamendi.
Definitely want a Liverpool, so toss a coin between Robertson and Van Dijk. Nothing betwwen them.
Bit worried about Chelsea, who knows what Sarri will be up to. Alonso amazing last year, but doea he still play? Azpi over performed, but nailed on?
Smalling is the only ManU defeneder I fancy with Valencia possibly injured.
Lets go Azpiculeta, Robertson, Mendy (6.5, 6.0. 6.0) - easy swtich to Alonso, plenty of easy swtiches to other 6.0. Can't go wrong. Mendy the only risk I think, but maybe high reward.
Yummy. Nailed on, clean sheet grabbing, occasional attacking returns, realtively cheap. Whats not to like? They are all much of a muchness.
Mendy is very interesting, Awesome stats in his few minutes last term. Back in pre-season despite the World Cup. If I think he plays. he should be first on my team sheet. Defintiely want a Man City, so him or Otamendi.
Definitely want a Liverpool, so toss a coin between Robertson and Van Dijk. Nothing betwwen them.
Bit worried about Chelsea, who knows what Sarri will be up to. Alonso amazing last year, but doea he still play? Azpi over performed, but nailed on?
Smalling is the only ManU defeneder I fancy with Valencia possibly injured.
Lets go Azpiculeta, Robertson, Mendy (6.5, 6.0. 6.0) - easy swtich to Alonso, plenty of easy swtiches to other 6.0. Can't go wrong. Mendy the only risk I think, but maybe high reward.
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Last edited by Patrician on 25 Jul 2018, 22:40, edited 1 time in total.
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One mid-price defence
Quite a few candidates, and if Arsenal didn't have such a shitty start I wouldn't look further. However they do, so the easy Bellerin, becomes Bellerin vs Van Aanholt. I love Van Aanholt, and Arsenal defenders have really screwed me over the years.
Choice: PvA
Quite a few candidates, and if Arsenal didn't have such a shitty start I wouldn't look further. However they do, so the easy Bellerin, becomes Bellerin vs Van Aanholt. I love Van Aanholt, and Arsenal defenders have really screwed me over the years.
Choice: PvA
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Not sure Aub does as Citeh will be lacking defenders and Chelsea could be learning a new system, and maybebedding in a few key players inc a GK?
I am trying to be strong and agree re Salah and 250, well sub 250 player.
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Yeah maybe Blah, but I just cant get past the Arnie level stats. Call me stats junkie.
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Stats need an eye test too, imho - Bellend may well not start
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Good job I didn't pick him!
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First of all great blog. I share many of your views.
I think it is close between Aguero and Salah. Its an important decision as it starts a chain reaction. The tipping point for me I imagine will be whether I would like an addiotional spot amongst forwards or midfielders.
Are you standing firm on your 4.5/4.0 GK strategy? I like 5.0/4.0 better up until first WC.
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You have a few weeks to fall into that trap
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Not sure on the goalies. I think it is the least interesting position, so will see whats left when everything else is done.
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Ok so premium midfielders, new principle: all choices must rhyme....Sane, Mane...
Two to pick. Have included Sanchez in the table even if he would break my rule of only one 10M player. After great consideration, Mahrez wait and see, Sanchez I love you but you need to do better. Eriksen lets wait for your mates to recover from the world cup.
Picks: Sane Mane
Two to pick. Have included Sanchez in the table even if he would break my rule of only one 10M player. After great consideration, Mahrez wait and see, Sanchez I love you but you need to do better. Eriksen lets wait for your mates to recover from the world cup.
Picks: Sane Mane
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Mid Midfielders, oh Richarlison you massive tease.
Richarlison is the type of player I snap up. Great underlying stats + poor returns = future profit. If I am going to play a stats game, I have to pick him, look at the starting fixtures. No idea what the everton move will do.
Matrtial, seems certain to start the season up front for ManU as a 7.5 M with great stats and performance. No brainer.
Silva I will probably regret my choices and have you n the end.
Ramsey. One good season you had. We know you can do it. High on my watch list you are.
Mkhi - Sorry dude, easy on the eye, spectacular goals now and again. No fantasy prospect.
Choices: Richarlison and Martial.
Richarlison is the type of player I snap up. Great underlying stats + poor returns = future profit. If I am going to play a stats game, I have to pick him, look at the starting fixtures. No idea what the everton move will do.
Matrtial, seems certain to start the season up front for ManU as a 7.5 M with great stats and performance. No brainer.
Silva I will probably regret my choices and have you n the end.
Ramsey. One good season you had. We know you can do it. High on my watch list you are.
Mkhi - Sorry dude, easy on the eye, spectacular goals now and again. No fantasy prospect.
Choices: Richarlison and Martial.
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Last edited by Patrician on 26 Jul 2018, 07:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Low on Mahrez if he starts? When the rest are back I doubt he will get the minutes until he buys into Pep's high\constant press thang. My gut is that next season he could Salah and if he gets it quickly then chew chew chomp chomp. The CS could well be a big watch FPL wise.
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I think Mahrez could be amazing, yes Salah levels, but I think that right hand berth in the city side is highly contested. If he secures it, I am all in.
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Why right side? I sense Pep will go 4-2-3-1 with KdB as 1 of the 2, and Raheem as the central one of the 3, as Dilva is eased out.
Or he goes similar to Engalnd, bit more 3-4-3, with Kdb as one of the 4, which has 2 from Sane, Sterling and Mahrez starting with Jesus\Kun - so the one above wins? He could go with Walker right and Stones left with freedom to go forward, but that sounds insane, unless the WB's drop back?
Or he goes similar to Engalnd, bit more 3-4-3, with Kdb as one of the 4, which has 2 from Sane, Sterling and Mahrez starting with Jesus\Kun - so the one above wins? He could go with Walker right and Stones left with freedom to go forward, but that sounds insane, unless the WB's drop back?
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Thats the thing, who the hell konws what Pep will do. I do know that Man City will score a shed load of goals, I will have three of them, but which three?
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My kinda 5hite you are dishing up herePatrician wrote: ↑25 Jul 2018, 23:07
Richarlison is the type of player I snap up. Great underlying stats + poor returns = future profit. If I am going to play a stats game, I have to pick him, look at the starting fixtures. No idea what the everton move will do.
Matrtial, seems certain to start the season up front for ManU as a 7.5 M with great stats and performance. No brainer.
Silva I will probably regret my choices and have you n the end.
Ramsey. One good season you had. We know you can do it. High on my watch list you are.
Mkhi - Sorry dude, easy on the eye, spectaucular goals now and again. No fantasy prospect.
Choices: Richarlison and Martial.
I have 3 ot these atm:
Rich as he was zonked and Silva should get hum firing again.
Martial should start up top, and if sold to the Prem becomes even better? Obv if goes to the Continent then Sanchez becomes that dust of gold, until the WC'ers return.
Mkh (currently pipping Ramsey) as he rocked when linking with Aub, but a wait and see re Dick's formation.
I do have Silva as an option, but down to CS eye test over Sane and Mahrez
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Forwards
Big decision here, I can premium (which means Firminho or Morata) plus a 4.5, or two mid priced.
Charlie Austin, with a full season should be a beast. My formula predicts a premium return.
Niasse, could be super if first choice. Fixtures are very friendly.
Tried and tested, bang on? Arnie plaus Zaha - thats my choice
Big decision here, I can premium (which means Firminho or Morata) plus a 4.5, or two mid priced.
Charlie Austin, with a full season should be a beast. My formula predicts a premium return.
Niasse, could be super if first choice. Fixtures are very friendly.
Tried and tested, bang on? Arnie plaus Zaha - thats my choice
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I can be boring\sensible and this is a season to be safe and set up something flexible for the first however many GW's. I have 9\10 as WC due to Fixture shifts, and if I WC before then then part oft hat will be minimal hits for then.
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This is actually the big one, assuming Zaha is at CP, which I doubt. I am thinking one as 2nd For, and 5ish bod as third so I can load the mids - imagine Eden and fister friend go to RM and a Willian\Martial swap, Even without Hig and the runt forwards going Martial and Pedro look good for not a lot. Barkley could even be worth having (Not to mention Willian at MU)
Arse have Ramsey and Mkh. (Apparently Torr 5mish should be on set pieces)
That is 3 or 4 for really not a lot...... Arnie plus Zaha and those 3 or 4 means a load itb.
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I think you are right on one of Zaha/Arnie plus a 5ish. I am a bit uneasy about not having Salah and uncertainty about Aguero game time, and I think I can get Salah in partially funded by this.
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Slightly drinkled I watched the Lpool Citeh match and went to bed just after Salah nearly had a 2nd within minutes of getting off the bench.
I had that same sense that I did last season...... so he will be in my squad subject to other stuff happening.
I had that same sense that I did last season...... so he will be in my squad subject to other stuff happening.
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I’m with you blah. I’ve considered going without him but going into every weekend willing him not to score and hiding behind the sofa as you say sounds horrible. I will virtually permacaptain him to justify the spend. I think the value in midfield makes including him doable
Just wanted to say I love your work patrician. Great thread
Just wanted to say I love your work patrician. Great thread
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Thanks
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re Salah: it's the 5+7 up top which mages this feasible plus all those cheap mids...
Getting Citeh coverage will be tricky, but Mahrez was a busy bee last night.
Getting Citeh coverage will be tricky, but Mahrez was a busy bee last night.
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last season Aubameyang played on the left wing Lacazette in the lineup but hide the licence to roomStemania wrote: ↑25 Jul 2018, 12:58 Nice thread this, Patrician, keep it up please!
I'm particularly interested in your observation about Auba and his conversion rate, though LamebrainEddy has a very good point on the xG front. He's an interesting one to predict given a new manager and likely a new 4atb system - if Emery reverts to his long-favoured 4231 then Auba suddenly looks wider to me and potentially less likely to be involved than last season. Maybe Lacazette could be the one to have, but in the 433 of Emery's PSG it could be that Auba improves his output, with the team just being better all round.
I find it very hard to predict (in view of LbE's point) whether Arsenal will continue to provide higher quality chances, as it may be that Auba's unique pace and movement/unknown factor was just as big a factor in their occurrence (vs the sheer quality of passes to him). Though it seems very unlikely to me that Arsenal as a rule should provide higher quality chances than the other top teams with their creative powers - so maybe we should indeed expect a little less of Auba as you suggest.
in today's game he started on left wing but hardly got into the box
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You may well be right but not so sure on that as you are, be interesting to see how our Swiss player fits in when he joins up with squad.
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Re: Patrician Blog
FYI, something that was shared on fantasypl reddit, on Unai Emery's predisposition for rotating his FB's:
https://i.imgur.com/L9Q2Eht.jpg
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In the 4-2-3-1 formation, I think Mahrez has more chance of playing the no 10 role than Sterling. I think we'll see a lot of Sterling but it'll be in the wide positions rather than behind whichever striker starts.blahblah wrote: ↑25 Jul 2018, 23:21 Why right side? I sense Pep will go 4-2-3-1 with KdB as 1 of the 2, and Raheem as the central one of the 3, as Dilva is eased out.
Or he goes similar to Engalnd, bit more 3-4-3, with Kdb as one of the 4, which has 2 from Sane, Sterling and Mahrez starting with Jesus\Kun - so the one above wins? He could go with Walker right and Stones left with freedom to go forward, but that sounds insane, unless the WB's drop back?
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