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Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

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Stemania
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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Stemania »

Zimmerman wrote: 09 Jul 2018, 12:39
Stemania wrote: 09 Jul 2018, 11:48 Zaha and Arnie's position changes are interesting - it's probably a good thing for the game to help the dwindling number of strikers over the last half decade. I recall reading a calculation suggesting the reclassification from MID to ATT roughly translated to a 10-15 point deficit for both Arnie and Zaha (inc bonus implications) - which is bad - but the reclassification has roughly frozen their prices - which is good.
When you mention bonus implications... has someone worked out how many BPS he would have accrued had he been listed as a striker last year?
Yeah, I've dug it out - was posted by Ludo on FFS when the prices came out:
The start of a new FPL season brings us fresh position changes. Although there was nothing as dramatic as Salah becoming a Forward, I’ve had a look at how the newly re-classified players would have performed in 17/18, if they’d been listed by their 18/19 positions.

To do this, I re-calculated points totals for the affected players, accounting for positional differences in points given for goals, clean sheets, goals conceded and bonus. I looked at the impact on bonus points on a game-by-game basis, so these should be exact figures.

Marko Arnautovic (MID > FWD)
-11 Goal Points
-7 Clean Sheet Points
+9 Bonus Points

144 Points (4.6 PPG) > 135 Points (4.4 PPG)

Wilfried Zaha (MID > FWD)
-9 Goal Points
-10 Clean Sheet Points
+7 Bonus Points

136 Points (4.7 Points Per Game or PPG) > 124 Points (4.3 PPG)

Arthur Masuaku (DEF > MID)
-18 Clean Sheet Points
-2 Bonus Points
+9 Goals Conceded Points

68 Points (2.5 PPG) > 57 Points (2.1 PPG)

James Milner (DEF > MID)
-18 Clean Sheet Points
-3 Bonus Points
+7 Goals Conceded Points

77 Points (2.4 PPG) > 63 Points (2.0 PPG)

Fabian Delph (MID > DEF)
+1 Goal Point
+18 Clean Sheet Points
+13 Bonus Points
-3 Goals Conceded Points

55 Points (2.5 PPG) > 84 Points (3.8 PPG)

Delph would have picked up bonus in each of the 6 matches where he played 60+ minutes and City kept a CS – he actually had the best minutes per Baseline BPS of any FPL player that made 10 or more starts last season.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka (MID > DEF)
+6 Clean Sheet Points
+2 Bonus Points
-4 Goals Conceded Points

15 Points (2.1 PPG > 2.7 PPG)

Ashley Young (MID > DEF)
+2 Goal Points
+27 Clean Sheet Points
+7 Bonus Points
-8 Goals Conceded Points

98 Points (3.3 PPG) > 126 Points (4.2 PPG)

N.B. Fousseini Diabate has also been re-classified as a Midfielder instead of a Forward, but would have still scored 21 Points last season if the change were made a year earlier.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Zimmerman »

Amazing. God bless these geeks with jobs that allow them the time to do this ;)

Must admit didn’t know we had the specifics required to work out the precise bps

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Stemania »

2nd draft has been a bit of an odd top-heavy skinny middle Salah-less affair for me, heavily influenced by potential WC disruptions:

Leno/Fabianski, 2nd GK
Alonso, Mendy, Matip, (4.5, 4.5)
Sane, Siggy, Mkhi, Deulofeu (Chalobah)
Aguero, Lacazette, Firmino

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Zimmerman wrote: 09 Jul 2018, 12:49 What’s the thinking with Chelsea?
Are they lining up a World Cup manager?

If they are going to change it/him - aren’t they leaving it a bit late?

Either way, it doesn’t bode well for the team being overly prepared for the season ahead (new man coming in late v existing man who didn’t seem to have his heart in it).

Throw in the fact that four key players are still in Russia, it doesn’t bode well for them hitting the ground running.

Courtois
Kanté
Hazard
Giroud

To a lesser extent Cahill, Loftus Cheek and Batshuayi.
Willian and Moses too

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Zimmerman »

I think their early exits makes them more likely to be available.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by RuudTheDudeVanTheMan »

Well they played more games than Cahill, RLC and Bats. I fancy Huddersfield to do well against them in gw1.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by blahblah »

RuudTheDudeVanTheMan wrote: 11 Jul 2018, 13:56 Well they played more games than Cahill, RLC and Bats. I fancy Huddersfield to do well against them in gw1.
I wasn't on the BB GW1 thing, but heavy Toon at home to Spurs Reserves has an appeal and something to get out off quite quickly?

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Calvin1979 »

I'm currently on the following which can be a 343 or 433:

Fabianski (4.0)
Coleman, TAA, Tompkins (Cedric, 4.0)
Salah, Eriksen, Mahrez, Deulofeu (4.5)
Aguero, Firmino, Austin

I don't like Fabianski's fixtures at all and would love the extra 1.0 to get Ederson. However, he may rack up a number of save points before his fixtures turn for the better in GW10.

Coleman is great value in defence. TAA is simply because I had 5.0 left over although there are GK and Joe Gomez issues - though the latter stated last week that he sees himself as a centre back. Lots of good options at 4.5 but it's Tompkins and Cedric for now.

In midfield I feel Salah is worth the 13.0 - just. Had he been a 13.0 forward this time around then I probably would have swerved him. Eriksen picks himself and Mahrez must surely start the season. Deulofeu is an interesting pick at 5.5... Watford have goals in them so hoping he picks up some assists and the odd goal himself. Can he be this season's Yaya or Charlie Adam? Maybe.

Aguero over Auba to start but that can be easily changed a few games in. Bobby F should do well again but is at an awkward price point with only Vardy, Lacazette and Morata similarly priced straight swaps. The pub standard footballer completes the line up for now but could easily become King or Wood.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Zimmerman »

Will TAA be available first couple of weeks?
Barely used this summer, but I assume he’ll still need a week or too before being reintroduced (especially as there is Clyne and Gomez to cover... Klopp won’t have to rush him back).

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Aguero vs Auba is an interesting one. I'm currently on the former but am torn between the two.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Calvin1979 »

Zimmerman wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 13:20 Will TAA be available first couple of weeks?
Barely used this summer, but I assume he’ll still need a week or too before being reintroduced (especially as there is Clyne and Gomez to cover... Klopp won’t have to rush him back).
Barely used is what I'm going by. He'll have a week or two off but it's not as if he hasn't been training - albeit with a different squad. Kolasinac could be a great alternative at that price point and would love to hear Emery's thoughts on him.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 13:36 Aguero vs Auba is an interesting one. I'm currently on the former but am torn between the two.
Surely its both?

It's down to how much you pick for the fixtures and how much for the long game?

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Jameselaprendi wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 14:02
Aldershot Rejects wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 13:36 Aguero vs Auba is an interesting one. I'm currently on the former but am torn between the two.
Surely its both?

It's down to how much you pick for the fixtures and how much for the long game?
No, starting with Salah which leaves space for only one other premium attacker.
Aguero would probably only be for the short term with Auba coming in any time after week 3 (but most likely week 6 depending on Aguero gametime).

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

For me it's boiling down to:
Salah or No Salah (I think most won't start with Kane)
and
Whether to take a shorter term view or not (good fixtures, ignore many WC players, wary of Chelsea turmoil, etc)

If I try to have Salah and a Short term view I can build a team around the following:
Robertson
Salah, Sane, Mkiti/Ramsey,
Aubam, Aguero

Leaves enough for a £6.5m and a support cast of £4.5m-ers
Or a even 2-3 in the £5-6m range and maybe throw in a £4m.
I wont name names, but if you look at fixtures there are some cracking options 4.5m to 5.5m...

Yes it means a pretty uninspiring bench*, but the team can be very robust.
Especially if you take into account fixtures and think about a 5-3-2 / 4-4-2
*Is it maybe smart not to bother picking the popular benchwarmers? They're the type of players that probably won't play much and because they have high ownership will be sold more and then lose value? Sometimes better to pick an absolute no hoper?


If you sell Salah and a £5-6m player you can get 1 from Col A and 1 from Col B
Column A: Sanchez, Hazard, DeBruyne, Eriksen, Mane, Firmino, Vardy, Mahrez
Column B: Son, Pogba, Zaha, Arnie, Wood, Lingard, Gross

Based on last season points per match:
Salah (8.5) + £5.5m-er (3.5)
Eriksen (5.5) + Pogba (5.5)
Not much in it, will Salah stay so potent??

Equally:
Aguero (7) + £5.5M-er (3.5)
Eriksen (5.5) + Zaha (4.5)
Still favours Aguero and a fixture orienated £5.5m-er...?

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Sutter Kane »

Have to factor in the Salah captaincy too though. Even if his FF level drops a little, it's worth having him for those devastating captaincy weeks. He's also not really a rotation risk. It's not even in question for me whether I pick him from the start unless it's stated he won't be in the squad GW1.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

I keep forgetting about captaincy - bit of a noob

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by blahblah »

Sanchez or Salah for me. Can't afford both unless I dump Aubething and go light up top, and I sense there will be some tasty cheap mids rather than Fwds.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

I agree

I really want to start with Salah, Sanchez, Aubameyang, Aguero and Sane but it pretty much can’t be done...

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Spinynorman »

blahblah wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 17:10 Sanchez or Salah for me. Can't afford both unless I dump Aubething and go light up top, and I sense there will be some tasty cheap mids rather than Fwds.


Indeed. I've seen a few folks saying they are going with various combinations of two of the more expensive types but when I try a draft including them I end up with a right rubbish squad.

Perhaps I'm just not creative enough. :(

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

It's just about viable to start with this team (attached)?

But how many of the these big 5 do you need to drop to get the right balance?
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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Sutter Kane »

So at least one has to go - if that one is Sane, it becomes possible. For me the one that would open up the funds is Auba out especially as he has Man C up first. At some point he can be brought in, perhaps a double swap with Sane out when Man C start to accumulate WC players. If Salah is a perma-captain again this season, neither Auba or anyone else at that price range will do enough damage to worry about without captaincy. And I see no reason why Salah won't be perma-captain again, even with a 10-15% dip, so too many premiums is not value.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Sutter Kane wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 18:10 So at least one has to go - if that one is Sane, it becomes possible. For me the one that would open up the funds is Auba out especially as he has Man C up first. At some point he can be brought in, perhaps a double swap with Sane out when Man C start to accumulate WC players. If Salah is a perma-captain again this season, neither Auba or anyone else at that price range will do enough damage to worry about without captaincy. And I see no reason why Salah won't be perma-captain again, even with a 10-15% dip, so too many premiums is not value.
Agreed, without captaincy any £10m+ player is going to struggle to be value. 2 or 3 is the max. You certainly don't need both Kun and Auba.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

I feel you guys are thinking over the season

I’m trying to play the conditions as they lie in the first 6-9 weeks

I agree having all 5 is pushing it and he captaincy element is giving me major food for thought...

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Jameselaprendi wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 18:29 I feel you guys are thinking over the season
Nah, we're always like this ;)

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by blahblah »

I'll have a proper look when back and on laptop, but that defence looks seriously pants.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Jameselaprendi »

blahblah wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 18:35 I'll have a proper look when back and on laptop, but that defence looks seriously pants.
I totally agree

But I feel premium defenders tend to achieve later on
And all those defenders have great fixtures and some attacking potential

My actual team has only 4 out of 5 premiums and 2 defenders upgraded...

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Zimmerman »

I never quite understand this “if you’re not captaining them” angle.

Is it always about vfm or does ‘peace of mind’ come in to it.

My angle/thinking is that £10m player might not offer the same vfm as a 6m player... but you have more certainty of greater points from a £10m player. Don’t you?

Do I fancy picking more points up from £10m + £4.5m versus a 7 & 7.5? Absolutely.
There will definitely be combinations that prove that wrong, but I’d fancy my chances are better.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Gambit »

Sutter Kane wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 18:10 So at least one has to go - if that one is Sane, it becomes possible. For me the one that would open up the funds is Auba out especially as he has Man C up first. At some point he can be brought in, perhaps a double swap with Sane out when Man C start to accumulate WC players. If Salah is a perma-captain again this season, neither Auba or anyone else at that price range will do enough damage to worry about without captaincy. And I see no reason why Salah won't be perma-captain again, even with a 10-15% dip, so too many premiums is not value.
The Salah C point is key to me, and it will shape my whole squad for GW1.

Is it better to have Salah and accept that he'll be C most weeks, or leave him out, put another couple of premiums in and rotate the C between 3/4 high value players?

All of my teams have pretty much had Salah but I have messed around doing teams without him and you can get what looks like a seriously strong squad with multiple C picks.

It's a risk because of his ownership and the fact he'll be captained by a huge %, but if Aguero is playing in those fixtures, and Sanchez fires, Aubameyang carries on from last season etc, then I think you can find a captain that should match Salah most GW's.

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Sutter Kane »

Zimmerman wrote: 14 Jul 2018, 08:16 I never quite understand this “if you’re not captaining them” angle.

Is it always about vfm or does ‘peace of mind’ come in to it.

My angle/thinking is that £10m player might not offer the same vfm as a 6m player... but you have more certainty of greater points from a £10m player. Don’t you?

Do I fancy picking more points up from £10m + £4.5m versus a 7 & 7.5? Absolutely.
There will definitely be combinations that prove that wrong, but I’d fancy my chances are better.
Peace of mind is not really a logical method for attempting to accumulate maximum points but I take your point as we often talk about playing safe with captaincy and % ownership. We share so much information here (and other sites) that peace of mind is not enough simply because there are too many dangerous 10mn+ players to be 'at peace'!

Three important aims come to my mind in FPL, captaincy, value and spending all the money in some order of importance. A little of the 'combo' comparisons comes down to what cheap bargains are available in midfield and attack. (and defence to some extent).

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Re: Strategic Thinking Cavern (18/19)

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Aldershot Rejects wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 18:31
Jameselaprendi wrote: 13 Jul 2018, 18:29 I feel you guys are over thinking the season
Nah, we're always like this ;)
Corrected that for you

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