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The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by dino1980 » 22 Feb 2016, 14:30

Below's a C&P of a very interesting post from Balders on FFS discussing the two main schools of thought on when to WC.

I currently favour the GW33 wildcard but it should be noted that would mean shedding all Lei players in GW33 if planning on getting 15 DGW out in GW34. I certainly think there's an arguement for hanging onto one of Vahrez instead of going for a full compliment of DGW players.

----------------------------
The Types of Teams
----------------------------

There are going to be three or maybe four categories of teams and then Liverpool who will have different levels of relevancy depending on whether you look to wildcard pre gameweek 34 or pre gameweek 37.

First off, there are the straight and narrow teams such as Leicester, Southampton, Stoke, and now Tottenham too who will have no double gameweek in gw 34 and no double gameweek in week 35 either.

Secondly, there will be teams who have a double gameweek in 34 but and also have a game in gameweek 35 maybe because they/their opponents lost their FA Cup quarter final or they are a team like Man City or Newcastle with just a Carling Cup fixture to be re-arranged.

Thirdly there are the FA Cup quarter final winners and their week 35 opponents who will have a double in 34, a blank in 35 and then another double gameweek in week 37. This could be two, four, six or eight teams depending on how the quarter finals go. (Bournemouth and Norwich may be lumped into this set although they likely won't have a double in 34 as they could have a blank in week 35).

Then there's a possibility that FA Cup quarter final losers and also Man City and Newcastle who could have a single gameweek 34, no blank 35 but then a double gameweek in 37.

Finally Liverpool will have the holy grail of a doubles in both 34 and 37 with no blank week in between due to their impending blanks now.

---------------------------------------------------------------
The Case for Wildcarding before Gameweek 34
---------------------------------------------------------------

There will be enough teams with a double gameweek 34 to play this in one of a lot scenarios though in each case you will want 3 Liverpool players if you can get past their disappointing DGW from last year.

My ideal way to run this would be with this WC in gameweek 33
3 Liverpool players
8 players with a dgw in 34 and a fixture in 35
4 players with dgw34, blank 35, dgw 37

This allows a 15 player BB in gameweek 34.

Then having rolled the week 34 transfer you can make one housekeeping transfer in week 35 while still getting 11 players out. Then you use your rolled FT from 35 and your transfers from 36 and 37 and you get something like this:

3 Liverpool players
5 players who had dgw 34, a fixture in 35 and a single gameweek in 37
7 players with dgw34 had no fixture in 35 and dgw37

This results in 10 dgw players for gameweek 37 having had a BB15 in week 34 and 11 players in week 35.

IF Man City vs Newcastle is in GW37 then conceivably your housekeeping transfer in week 35 can get in an 11th DGWer for gameweek 37.

-------------------------------------------------
The Case for Wildcarding in Week 36
-------------------------------------------------

This tactic depends a lot more on your set up for gameweek 30 and works better if Man City vs Newcastle is in gameweek 34.

Ideally you have 11 players for gameweek 30 by week 29 so you can roll a free transfer through the blank week. This should put you on

11 gameweek 30 players (this could include 3/4 Man City/Newcastle with a dgw34)
4 gameweek 30 blanks who have a dgw in week 34

This then gives you 5 transfers to get in players with a dgw 34 but also a fixture in gameweek 35 putting you on

6 gameweek 30 players with a single gameweek 34 (unless the City fixture is in 34)
9 players with a double gameweek 34 and mostly with games in 35

This means you ideally get between 9 and 11 double gameweekers in week 34 (dependant on Man City vs Newcastle), 11 players out in gameweek 35 and then you can wildcard in 15 DGWers in week 36 ahead of DGW37 IF there are 6 or 8 PL teams with a dgw37.

---------------
Conclusion
---------------

There are currently two very good potential ways of playing the Wildcard as it stands although depending on when Man City vs Newcastle falls and how the FA Cup quarter finals pan out there may be a clear favourite post-gameweek 30. There are also caveats that both scenarios above are "best case" and don't legislate for the actual appeal of the players, their fixtures, rotation worries or the fact red cards and injuries will probably reign you in from the idealistic frontiers.

This week I am focusing on getting 11 players out for this weekend and also on replacing Myhill for a useful second goalkeeper. Then I will spend weeks 28 and 29 getting in a couple of Man City players for their good fixtures and for the possibility they have a dgw in 34. I will then hopefully roll my week 30 transfer and re-assess the landscape after the FA Cup quarter finals.

There are ifs and buts all over the place but hopefully the above helps you see how things may fall and whether you are suited more to one camp or another. The gameweek 33 method seems easier to pull off and gives you a bit more flexibility between now and then but if you play it well now and the Man City vs Newcastle fixture falls in week 34, you could benefit from a gameweek 36 wildcard in terms of player numbers.

Finally this is all just hit-free planning, either plan could work particularly well with a couple of well judged hits along the way.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 22 Feb 2016, 15:10

Thanks Dino, as you say interesting. I'm surprised though he doesn't mention Everton who will have DGWs in 34 and 37 and also somewhere else along the way as long as they or Crystal Palace get to the cup semi-final.

I'm currently planning on the basis of a wildcard in 36 but won't decide until after the cup quarters when everything becomes clearer. The tipping point for me may well be when the Newcastle v Man C game is re-arranged for, although it will also depends who gets through in the cup - Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Chelsea and West Ham all getting through would also push me towards a late wildcard.

Just reading that I've realised that we could easily have an all-London semi-final line-up.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Valeron » 22 Feb 2016, 15:20

Thanks for that post. I think another key consideration is that the cheap leicester players have good fixtures in GWS 34 and 35 then it's bad from 36. I''m working towards a GW36 wildcard but accept that plan might need to change based on some of the points in the post above.

is that near certain that both Liverpool and Everton will have DGWs in both 34 and 37?

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 22 Feb 2016, 15:40

Valeron wrote:Thanks for that post. I think another key consideration is that the cheap leicester players have good fixtures in GWS 34 and 35 then it's bad from 36. I''m working towards a GW36 wildcard but accept that plan might need to change based on some of the points in the post above.

is that near certain that both Liverpool and Everton will have DGWs in both 34 and 37?
It depends when the Merseyside Derby is re-arranged for. If it is re-arranged for GW37 then yes, but if CP v Eve is re-arranged for GW37 (assuming that one of them wins their quarter-final) then it will take place during another GW.

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Re: RE: Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by liquidfootball2 » 22 Feb 2016, 21:25

flare2 wrote:There were postponements in Dec 2009, Jan 2010, Feb 2010 and Dec 2010

If I recall, the Dec 2010 had 8 PL matches cancelled in one GW.

We've had an exceptionally mild few years so no major postponements since then I then.
The BBC have been issuing cold weather warnings for plus 5 overnight temperatures recently, it's just got completely out of hand. It seems they've never heard of Peter and the wolf.

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Re: RE: Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Ironfist » 22 Feb 2016, 21:33

liquidfootball2 wrote:
flare2 wrote:There were postponements in Dec 2009, Jan 2010, Feb 2010 and Dec 2010

If I recall, the Dec 2010 had 8 PL matches cancelled in one GW.

We've had an exceptionally mild few years so no major postponements since then I then.
The BBC have been issuing cold weather warnings for plus 5 overnight temperatures recently, it's just got completely out of hand. It seems they've never heard of Peter and the wolf.
What does Prokofiev has to do with the BBC weather forecast? :)
I think you meant Aesop's "The boy who cried wolf" :wink:

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by liquidfootball2 » 22 Feb 2016, 21:35

Ironfist wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:
flare2 wrote:There were postponements in Dec 2009, Jan 2010, Feb 2010 and Dec 2010

If I recall, the Dec 2010 had 8 PL matches cancelled in one GW.

We've had an exceptionally mild few years so no major postponements since then I then.
The BBC have been issuing cold weather warnings for plus 5 overnight temperatures recently, it's just got completely out of hand. It seems they've never heard of Peter and the wolf.
What does Prokofiev has to do with the BBC weather forecast? :)
I think you meant Aesop's "The boy who cried wolf" :wink:
Of course Ironfist, I stand corrected

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Finisher1 » 23 Feb 2016, 11:24

I'm going to ditch Aguero today (and bring him back for GW29). But I'm still wondering, is there any chance he could have DGW28? I guess the likelihood is pretty much zero, right?

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by SFC_Fan » 23 Feb 2016, 12:13

Gw28 is a midweek round so I doubt it.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 23 Feb 2016, 12:14

Finisher1 wrote:I'm going to ditch Aguero today (and bring him back for GW29). But I'm still wondering, is there any chance he could have DGW28? I guess the likelihood is pretty much zero, right?
Given that GW28 is next Tuesday and Wednesday, I think the likelihood of them fitting another game in is zero :D

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Finisher1 » 23 Feb 2016, 12:19

Good, thank you for clarifying this

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by liquidfootball2 » 24 Feb 2016, 12:13

Utd drawn against the hammers in the cup and also scheduled to meet in the league in gwk35 (also FA Cup semi-final day), so because one of the two will get through to the semis, the gwk35 league game will be moved

Utd now have two to reschedule palace and whu. The Palace game looks to be 34 and WHU in 37.

As Aldershot Rejects explains

" Simplicity in terms of overall planning.

With lots of clubs having to rearrange matches the simplest thing is to move whole sets of fixtures.

So when Man Utd play CP and WH also affects when Crystal Palace v Everton and West Ham v Watford take place, and so on for Everton and Watford's other potential dgw opponents.

Of course, there may be individual matches that don't follow this pattern so we can't be certain with respect to individual fixtures but for those who like planning that far ahead, it will probably be correct in the majority of circumstances."

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by liquidfootball2 » 24 Feb 2016, 15:44

Swansea City confirm Arsenal (GWK28) clash will NOT be moved due to FA Cup replay

Swansea City have confirmed that the Premier League tie with Arsenal will take place, as planned, a week on Wednesday.

It had been thought that the game may have to be moved in order to allow Arsenal to fulfill their FA Cup replay with Hull City before the quarter final weekend, but the Swans have said that this will not be case.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/foot ... c-10930518

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Le Red » 24 Feb 2016, 15:58

liquidfootball2 wrote:Swansea City confirm Arsenal (GWK28) clash will NOT be moved due to FA Cup replay

Swansea City have confirmed that the Premier League tie with Arsenal will take place, as planned, a week on Wednesday.

It had been thought that the game may have to be moved in order to allow Arsenal to fulfill their FA Cup replay with Hull City before the quarter final weekend, but the Swans have said that this will not be case.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/foot ... c-10930518
Hope it gives them enough headaches to make them seriously consider ending the replays.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Curmudgeon » 24 Feb 2016, 17:33

Does this means that the Arsenal v Spurs fixture in GW29 will be rescheduled?

The TV people would NOT be pleased about that!

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 24 Feb 2016, 18:00

Curmudgeon wrote:Does this means that the Arsenal v Spurs fixture in GW29 will be rescheduled?

The TV people would NOT be pleased about that!
I doubt it. More likely that the Arsenal game will either take place on the following Monday or on the weekend of GW30.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by gallus » 24 Feb 2016, 18:08

so the idea is to use tripleC in a City DGW and wildcard+bench boost in the other DGW, right?

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Re: RE: Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by liquidfootball2 » 24 Feb 2016, 18:16

Curmudgeon wrote:Does this means that the Arsenal v Spurs fixture in GW29 will be rescheduled?

The TV people would NOT be pleased about that!
I would have thought that the chance of that happening is far too small to be a serious possibility, it's looking most likely to be the Monday before the quarters, but we should know well before that.

(Sorry AR, I see you've already answered this)

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 24 Feb 2016, 18:18

gallus wrote:so the idea is to use tripleC in a City DGW and wildcard+bench boost in the other DGW, right?
The majority of people seem to be looking to BB in GW34 which it is assumed will have the highest number of doubles and then TC in GW37 which will probably be the smaller of the two doubles. At the moment we don't know when the Newcastle v Man City game will be arranged for but given that neither side will have any other doubles to worry about it could be either week.

My concern about TC in a city DGW would be if they are out of league contention by the time of the double but still in Europe they might rest Aguero.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by dino1980 » 24 Feb 2016, 19:33

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
gallus wrote:so the idea is to use tripleC in a City DGW and wildcard+bench boost in the other DGW, right?
The majority of people seem to be looking to BB in GW34 which it is assumed will have the highest number of doubles and then TC in GW37 which will probably be the smaller of the two doubles. At the moment we don't know when the Newcastle v Man City game will be arranged for but given that neither side will have any other doubles to worry about it could be either week.

My concern about TC in a city DGW would be if they are out of league contention by the time of the double but still in Europe they might rest Aguero.
Like you I think the placing of the Newcastle vs City game will likely decide if I WC in GW33 (if City double is GW37) or GW36 (if City double is GW 34). Regardless it looks as if GW34 will be the best time for the TC and the BB, which is a shame as obviously only one can be used.

Regardless I'm unlikely to TC Aguero in either scenario. If the City double falls in GW34 they'll have che/new and if it's in GW37 they'll have ARS/new. Each has their downsides and to my mind there are better options such as:

GW34: Arsenal mid/att if they beat Hull (CPL/WBA) - looks ripe for a Ozil/Sanchez TC if not playing bench boost
GW34: United (AVL/CPL) - probably madness to consider a United player but they've got the fixtures
GW37: WHM have (SWA/MUN) - Payet firmly on the radar (he also will likely have (lei/Wat) in GW34 fwiw
GW37: Liverpool (WAT/EVE*) - Not 100% that the second game will be Everton but Coutinho, Firmino and (gulp) Sturridge are options given two home games
GW37: Chelsea mid/att (sun/bou) - high risk, especially if Sunderland and Bournemouth are both fighting relegation but on paper they look two tasty fixtures for anyone needing to really roll the dice.

A lot will happen in FPL between now and GW34/37 but, as mad as it sounds, if the doubles were tomorrow I don't think Aguero would be at the top of my TC list.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 24 Feb 2016, 19:47

dino1980 wrote:
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
gallus wrote:so the idea is to use tripleC in a City DGW and wildcard+bench boost in the other DGW, right?
The majority of people seem to be looking to BB in GW34 which it is assumed will have the highest number of doubles and then TC in GW37 which will probably be the smaller of the two doubles. At the moment we don't know when the Newcastle v Man City game will be arranged for but given that neither side will have any other doubles to worry about it could be either week.

My concern about TC in a city DGW would be if they are out of league contention by the time of the double but still in Europe they might rest Aguero.
Like you I think the placing of the Newcastle vs City game will likely decide if I WC in GW33 (if City double is GW37) or GW36 (if City double is GW 34). Regardless it looks as if GW34 will be the best time for the TC and the BB, which is a shame as obviously only one can be used.

Regardless I'm unlikely to TC Aguero in either scenario. If the City double falls in GW34 they'll have che/new and if it's in GW37 they'll have ARS/new. Each has their downsides and to my mind there are better options such as:

GW34: Arsenal mid/att if they beat Hull (CPL/WBA) - looks ripe for a Ozil/Sanchez TC if not playing bench boost
GW34: United (AVL/CPL) - probably madness to consider a United player but they've got the fixtures
GW37: WHM have (SWA/MUN) - Payet firmly on the radar (he also will likely have (lei/Wat) in GW34 fwiw
GW37: Liverpool (WAT/EVE*) - Not 100% that the second game will be Everton but Coutinho, Firmino and (gulp) Sturridge are options given two home games
GW37: Chelsea mid/att (sun/bou) - high risk, especially if Sunderland and Bournemouth are both fighting relegation but on paper they look two tasty fixtures for anyone needing to really roll the dice.

A lot will happen in FPL between now and GW34/37 but, as mad as it sounds, if the doubles were tomorrow I don't think Aguero would be at the top of my TC list.
That's pretty much where I'm at at the moment (although I'm not considering the Utd option) - great minds think alike and all that. Given that many are planning the early wildcard, I'd probably prefer the Newcastle v City game to slot into GW34 as doing something different from the pack is probably the best route for me to gain in rank.

Just hope that they get a move on and announce dates then I can stop messing around with 'what-ifs.'

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Pirlo's Beard » 24 Feb 2016, 21:00

Aldershot Rejects wrote:My concern about TC in a city DGW would be if they are out of league contention by the time of the double but still in Europe they might rest Aguero.
My concern would be the fixtures.

If we assume that Newcastle away is a tricky fixture (and it usually is, despite Newcastle's appalling away form) then City are looking at a very tricky pair of fixtures for their DGW.

If it's DGW34, they'll have Newcastle (A), Chelsea (A).

If it's DGW37, they'll have Newcastle (A), Arsenal (H).

Neither an ideal pair of fixtures for playing the triple captain chip, the former pair looking especially difficult IMO with a trip to Stamford Bridge in there.

I know Agüero is a notorious "fail-safe" option for many, but looking elsewhere for your triple captain might be wise.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 24 Feb 2016, 21:04

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Aldershot Rejects wrote:My concern about TC in a city DGW would be if they are out of league contention by the time of the double but still in Europe they might rest Aguero.
My concern would be the fixtures.

If we assume that Newcastle away is a tricky fixture (and it usually is, despite Newcastle's appalling away form) then City are looking at a very tricky pair of fixtures for their DGW.

If it's DGW34, they'll have Newcastle (A), Chelsea (A).

If it's DGW37, they'll have Newcastle (A), Arsenal (H).

Neither an ideal pair of fixtures for playing the triple captain chip, the former pair looking especially difficult IMO with a trip to Stamford Bridge in there.

I know Agüero is a notorious "fail-safe" option for many, but looking elsewhere for your triple captain might be wise.
That's a fair point, although if he's in form at the time it will be brave to go with anyone else.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Pirlo's Beard » 24 Feb 2016, 22:28

Aldershot Rejects wrote:That's a fair point, although if he's in form at the time it will be brave to go with anyone else.
True, and perhaps I'm overestimating the difficulty of Newcastle (A). Chelsea (A) would definitely put me off though. Arsenal (H) isn't as bad, but if it's GW34 I'd be tempted to look elsewhere to see if there's an attacking player with a better pair of fixtures.

Willing Sturridge to stay fit. :D

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 24 Feb 2016, 23:09

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Willing Sturridge to stay fit. :D
Sturridge is an interesting call although Bou/CHE in GW34 is not as attractive as WAT/EVE if it happens in GW37. If I leave my wildcard late I'll probably have Costa and Aguero up front in 34 and probably couldn't afford Sturridge. I'm also not sure I trust him not to break in the first game.

Of course it is all a bit premature but no harm in teasing out options.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by LAMPS27 » 25 Feb 2016, 15:41

LAMPS27 wrote:After Arsenal's 0-0 with Hull, Steve Bruce said the replay will be on 8th March which can only happen if it's not broadcasted, could be played on 7th according to some journalists.
Tweet from Hull

FA CUP: Our #EmiratesFACup 5th Rd replay with @Arsenal will be played at the KC Stadium on Tuesday 8 March (KO 7pm)

Brucey got it right!

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 25 Feb 2016, 15:50

http://www.thefa.com/news/the-fa-cup/20 ... senal-date

More on the replay decision. Sounds like some sort of compromise was reached with UEFA (I guess the games overlap now rather than take place at the same time!)

Just realised that no schedule has been announced for any of the quarter-finals. Waiting on this decision I guess.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by MoSe » 25 Feb 2016, 16:08

don't get it, the matches overlap (FAC 1st half will end when CL matches kick off) AND the domestic match will be televised????

WOW, this sets a relevant precedent

not that I disagree, this opens more options for the DGW schedule, but it just muddles the rules

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by maradonash » 25 Feb 2016, 16:22

Be interesting to see who has the TV rights, BT or The Beeb.
Either way, I can't see BT Sport being happy given how much they spent on exclusive UCL rights. Unless they've been given a sweetener.

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Re: The second wildcard is coming! (Double Gameweek Planning)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 25 Feb 2016, 16:29

maradonash wrote:Be interesting to see who has the TV rights, BT or The Beeb.
Either way, I can't see BT Sport being happy given how much they spent on exclusive UCL rights. Unless they've been given a sweetener.
I'm sure I read somewhere that BBC get first call on replays in this round. I assume BT Sport will have had to agree the decision.

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