The way he moves ft. Magnus Carlsen

[Stu255]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... ball-table

[Pirlo's Beard]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... ball-table

Ahem, yes...

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/ ... ball-table

Carlsen, who is currently competing at the London Chess Classic at Olympia, puts his fantasy football success down to luck.

[...]

Carlsen said: “In chess, you know when you’ve done well and when you’ve done poorly, but it’s hard for me to take praise for fantasy league, when I’ve just been lucky.”

[Stu255]

That quote is from October.

He doesn’t want to talk about FPL in case it jinxed him.

We need to send Stevieste to ask him about Jamie Vardy.

[Pirlo's Beard]

We need to send Stevieste to ask him about Jamie Vardy.

He'd somehow inadvertently end up sabotaging Carlsen's season.

I hadn't noticed the part I quoted was from October. Really I was just pointing out that I had already linked to the article four hours ago on the previous page.

As for the actual quote itself? In all likelihood he was just being modest, and he doesn't put the success of his entire season down to luck alone. But still, after weeks of us mere FISO mortals dissecting his moves and praising his genius-level mind, it's pretty funny to hear the man himself come out and say "nah, I've just been lucky."

[Blue Fire]

https://twitter.com/magnuscarlsen/statu ... 16642?s=21

[Billy Bongo]

Wonder what spawn he'll get today?

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[Sutter Kane]

Wonder what spawn he'll get today?

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Well Magnus can't win it without a grotesque amount of spawn! No-one can.

He's got some today again - Salah captain 32 points.

[math!]

He captained a player who got a second goal due to an Origi mishit while goalhanging and a clean sheet point in a match where the opponents airballed twice in great positions.

[Pirlo's Beard]

He captained a player who got a second goal due to an Origi mishit while goalhanging and a clean sheet point in a match where the opponents airballed twice in great positions.

And if Origi hadn't fluffed his shot it would have been two assists for my captain Mané instead of two goals for his captain Salah.

[math!]

He captained a player who got a second goal due to an Origi mishit while goalhanging and a clean sheet point in a match where the opponents airballed twice in great positions.

And if Origi hadn't fluffed his shot it would have been two assists for my captain Mané instead of two goals for his captain Salah.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_effect

Maybe this article needs to be expanded

[Stu255]

He captained a player who got a second goal due to an Origi mishit while goalhanging and a clean sheet point in a match where the opponents airballed twice in great positions.

And if Origi hadn't fluffed his shot it would have been two assists for my captain Mané instead of two goals for his captain Salah.

I’m not sure it is luck when someone captains Mo Salah and Mo Salah scores. I think Salah was one of, if not the, most probable source of points this weekend?

If Carlson had captained John Fleck then I would accept he had been lucky.

[Patrician]

I think he is applying some of the game theory that Dod talks about. Variance play to win. And it is working.


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[Stu255]

I think he is applying some of the game theory that Dod talks about. Variance play to win. And it is working.


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Surely the best way to play v’s overall is to just optimise for the maximum end of season score?

How do you play game theory vs 7 million opponents?

[Smurphy Paw]

Introducing No 1 in the World

4CA4ED1F-735D-4180-8797-59B87A64E93D.jpeg

[blahblah]

What we are seeing is that his transferable skills, earned from an entire childhood of training, make him the best FPL player in the world.

I'm not denying he's a brilliant mind and a brilliant FPL player, but surely it's a bit early to be making the claim that he's the best FPL player in the world? He's been playing FPL for four full seasons and this is the first above average season he's having. His average rank over those four years was 71,824.

You talk about skills he would have learned in childhood. Was he not using them for the past four years? Has he only decided to start using them now?

Yep and out of it

https://youtu.be/1JeEXP717T0

[Pirlo's Beard]

I’m not sure it is luck when someone captains Mo Salah and Mo Salah scores. I think Salah was one of, if not the, most probable source of points this weekend?

I'm not saying Carlsen was lucky, I'm just saying I was unlucky.

Salah was a solid captain pick.

[Sutter Kane]

I’m not sure it is luck when someone captains Mo Salah and Mo Salah scores. I think Salah was one of, if not the, most probable source of points this weekend?

I'm not saying Carlsen was lucky, I'm just saying I was unlucky.

Salah was a solid captain pick.

Yes exactly. Vardy or Mane could have punished him greatly but didn't. It's difficult to say to players like him are lucky because he consistently makes good decisions. However to get where he is you need to basically avoid the bad beats everyone else suffers with.

[Stu255]

I’m not sure it is luck when someone captains Mo Salah and Mo Salah scores. I think Salah was one of, if not the, most probable source of points this weekend?

I'm not saying Carlsen was lucky, I'm just saying I was unlucky.

Salah was a solid captain pick.

It's difficult to say players like him are lucky because he consistently makes good decisions. However to get where he is you need to basically avoid the bad beats everyone else suffers with.

Yes, you could say exactly the same about his 2,872 FIDE score which is 50 more than anyone else (a huge margin). He doesn’t make the small mistakes that every else makes, he plays with a precision that nobody else ever has.

He simultaneously has the highest FIDE score and highest FPL score, is that really a coincidence?

He doesn’t just top both scores for his city, or even his country, but for the whole world. Yeah because luck.


I think it just shows that everyone has to up their game. Or rather everyone CAN up their game.

[Ironfist]

Magnus Carlen's mother in law is Andre Marriner's mistress... that's how Salah got two goals!

[Patrician]

I think he is applying some of the game theory that Dod talks about. Variance play to win. And it is working.


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Surely the best way to play v’s overall is to just optimise for the maximum end of season score?

How do you play game theory vs 7 million opponents?

The Salah(c) is a good example. Most people own Vardy, and against Norwich at home most will captain him (effective ownership was 171% in top 10k), and that is probably the play with the best xPts. However, whatever Vardy scores doesn't matter if you captain him in this match - he does well, so does everyone, he does poorly, so does everyone.

Magnus instead goes for his low effective ownership option Salah (17% effective ownership), who also has a very good fixture. Yes he gets the luck of the brace and a relatively low Vardy score, but he made his luck with his choice. He is making plays that matter, for better or worse. This is the "variance" concept that Dod wrote a lot about and I think that is in the thinking of Magnus. Might as well try to win, as opposed to playing safe, as it is only through getting lucky with a handful of these that he can win.

[SirMattBugsby]

I also feel that such "gambles" are best made when backing a premium who is out of popular favour. A lot of us here called Salah a poor pick ("in foresight and hindsight", something like that). Two weeks on, he's turned into a solid captaincy choice.

Not captaining Vardy was less of a risk to Carlsen than the potential gain of captaining Salah. That's because the majority around him don't even own Salah, whereas he owns Vardy (and Mane).

He got in Salah with his WC in GW 13 and has captained him since 14. Like Patrician said, he created Dod's variance and used the king of FPL for it. Not bad eh?

[math!]

I think he is applying some of the game theory that Dod talks about. Variance play to win. And it is working.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Surely the best way to play v’s overall is to just optimise for the maximum end of season score?

How do you play game theory vs 7 million opponents?

The Salah(c) is a good example. Most people own Vardy, and against Norwich at home most will captain him (effective ownership was 171% in top 10k), and that is probably the play with the best xPts. However, whatever Vardy scores doesn't matter if you captain him in this match - he does well, so does everyone, he does poorly, so does everyone.

Magnus instead goes for his low effective ownership option Salah (17% effective ownership), who also has a very good fixture. Yes he gets the luck of the brace and a relatively low Vardy score, but he made his luck with his choice. He is making plays that matter, for better or worse. This is the "variance" concept that Dod wrote a lot about and I think that is in the thinking of Magnus. Might as well try to win, as opposed to playing safe, as it is only through getting lucky with a handful of these that he can win.

I actually considered captaining Lundstram but chose to play it safe. I guess fortune favours the bold sometimes.

[Patrician]

Yeah, masterclass really, move of the season even.

[Neath boy]

What is a FIDE Score?

[Pirlo's Beard]

A lot of us here called Salah a poor pick ("in foresight and hindsight", something like that).

Ugh, I really don't want to revisit this but you're forcing me to defend myself, so I will. I said Salah was a poor pick at the time and I stand by that. He was carrying an injury and was a gametime risk. How can a £12m gametime risk ever be a good pick?

He is now obviously in much better physical shape and looks more like his old confident self. Therefore he is now a good FPL pick again.

Is this really such an outrageous opinion to have or so difficult to understand?

And yes, things change fast in FPL. A poor pick one week can be a great pick a couple of weeks later due to changes in circumstance. Alli being a good recent example.

[SirMattBugsby]

A lot of us here called Salah a poor pick ("in foresight and hindsight", something like that).

Ugh, I really don't want to revisit this but you're forcing me to defend myself, so I will. I said Salah was a poor pick at the time and I stand by that. He was carrying an injury and was a gametime risk. How can a £12m gametime risk ever be a good pick?

He is now obviously in much better physical shape and looks more like his old confident self. Therefore he is now a good FPL pick again.

Is this really such an outrageous opinion to have or so difficult to understand?

And yes, things change fast in FPL. A poor pick one week can be a great pick a couple of weeks later due to changes in circumstance. Alli being a good recent example.

I agreed with you at the time PB, so I'm not attacking your views any more than my own.

In a season where price hasn't been that much of a problem, maybe gambling on the talisman of the best team in the league wasn't that outrageous? On a similar note, Sterling could prove to be fruitful over next 4-6 weeks..

[math!]

Other than the goal (which was nice) Salah was very poor against Salzburg during the week. Captaining him needed a bit of faith that he wouldn't fluff his lines so emphatically once again.

Anyway it doesn't matter if it's him or peak Emile Heskey, that second goal yesterday was under comical circumstances and was a gift that had no real bearing on whether the captain choice was a good play.

[blahblah]

Magnus Carlen's mother in law is Andre Marriner's mistress... that's how Salah got two goals!

Makes sense...

[Pirlo's Beard]

I agreed with you at the time PB, so I'm not attacking your views any more than my own.

Apologies then, I got a bit defensive when I saw you quoting my earlier line about Salah and misread it as a dig. In my defence, I had only just woken up.

I suppose I'm still a bit peeved that my own high-variance captain pick (Mané over Vardy) didn't work out nearly as well as Carlsen's.

[Smurphy Paw]

I agreed with you at the time PB, so I'm not attacking your views any more than my own.

Apologies then, I got a bit defensive when I saw you quoting my earlier line about Salah and misread it as a dig. In my defence, I had only just woken up.

I suppose I'm still a bit peeved that my own high-variance captain pick (Mané over Vardy) didn't work out nearly as well as Carlsen's.

And some of that was by way of contrast to a point Imade. Just so people understand it wasn’t really a glowing endorsement of Salah at the time. It was more of an observation about how poor Everton were. Looking at it through a (then) hapless Everton lens, they left really big gaps at the back that Liverpool exploited time and again.
None of which is seeking to re-ignite that whole conversation. It’s moved on.