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Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

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Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 31 Oct 2019, 12:48

First of all: I love this forum. Have been a quiet reader even before I logged on to this site.

About me. I'm finnish, so please forgive my english and please (PLEASE!) don't confuse me with the other finnish guy here (JK :oops: ) Have been playing fpl for about ten years. Have had three top10k finishes and you can also almost find a correlation from my season history to the seasons when I have been involved in a money league and when not :mrgreen:

My approach to the game is all about the eye-test. I love all the statistical posts and want to improve that part of my game. My main idea every season is to grow the number of "essential" players from about 6 to about 8. The main reason for starting this thread is that things aren't going so well (rank +1,3M) and I want to understand why. Here's my current team:

Pope (Button)
TAA, Otamendi, Söyüncü (Rico, Guilbert)
Sterling (C), KDB, Mount, Maddison (Cantwell)
Abraham, Auba, Haller
(0,9 in the bank)

This week I already did one transfer (Hanley => Söyüncü) leaving me with one free transfer, which I'm thinking about saving and doing a double transfer of Haller+Cantwell to Ayew+Martial. After that all my problems relate to Otamendi not playing and Auba not scoring.

My current money league is bit weighed on the monthly prize, but I haven't adjusted my strategy at all to this. Last three seasons I have done really well in the money league and I'm currently only 35 points behind the leader (winner almost takes all).

I'm not going to ask any spesific advice for now, but am welcoming all comments on the structure of my team. And the title of this thread is a serious concern. Have been making quite a few of those in the past...
Last edited by JanosKojak on 07 Nov 2019, 22:21, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 01 Nov 2019, 14:27

One of the reasons for my lowscoring start has probably been not being able to see as many games as I would have liked to. Take for example Aubameyang. Brought him in purely on past points. Since then I have watched two Arsenal games and have regretted the transfer alot.

Haller I saw play twice and really liked how he was involved in everything. I think there the mistake was overvaluing West Ham.

Regarding my planned transfers. How are palace looking? For Ayews price he seems like a great bench player. Or should I save the money and go for Greenwood? One replacement for Otamendi in three rounds could be PVA for Palace's great run. Too punty?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 01 Nov 2019, 17:51

Finnish and no Pukki 😱😱😱

It seems like a fair few teams on here. Im more into cash at the back and co consider Vardy a luxury\risk, but has delivered so far.

After another pants start I've gone t9 my usual Plan B which usually delivers: pick Clubs then players, so I have 9 from LPool3, Citeh and Leicester plus 2 Chelsea attackers. Hopefully this gets me past Xmas in a better position...

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 02 Nov 2019, 09:26

Thanks for the comment blah. Although I'm not sure are you actually suggesting something. Get in Vardy for Haller somehow?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 02 Nov 2019, 10:32

I'd downgrade Auba tbh. He has to score a whack more points than Vardy to be worth the cash....

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 02 Nov 2019, 10:47

That's a possibility. Although that would leave me with Haller. Or I would have to take a hit for him. Auba has SOU, nor, BHA, whu after the next two. Where is Patrician with the projections for these two to see if it's worth the - 4 for the next six (Auba vs Vardy) ?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 02 Nov 2019, 11:01

I'd leave it this GW ...

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 04 Nov 2019, 10:48

Gameweek 11 review:
Saturday I thought I had jinxed myself for opening this RMT. Thank jebus for Soyuncu and Maddison. Managed 63 points all out, a small green arrow and only 42 points behind the leaders of my money league. Phew :mrgreen:

Gameweek 12 preview:
Pope
TAA, Rico, Soyuncu
Mount, Sterling, Maddison, KDB
Abraham (C?), Auba, Haller
(Button, Cantwell, Guilbert, Otamendi +0,9itb)

Original idea was Haller+Cantwell to Martial+Connolly. Martial and ManU look really week offensively and although BHA, shu, AVL look decent for the next three I don't trust them enough.

Plan B is to just replace Otamendi with... anyone. Currently thinking hard about Emerson. Chelsea dominated Watford and Emerson could really rack up the points if they manage to start keeping clean sheets. This would leave me with a horrible team for week 12, but two free transfers for the international break. Lack of Lundstram is a pain in the ass but his next three look kind of difficult.

The future:
Week 13: Haller+Cantwell => Any two players
Week 14: Roll
Week 15: Auba+Rico (or Guilbert) => Vardy + Lundstram

Any suggestions?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 10:57

I'm not sure Lund's fixtures are relevant and he is my first transfer this GW.

Do you think Auba is more likely to score this weekend than Vardy?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 04 Nov 2019, 11:37

Why aren't Lundstram's fixtures relevant?

I think Auba (lei, SOU, nor) can be expected to score very similar points to Vardy (ARS, bri, EVE) over the next three. Soton at home and Norwich away feel like great fixtures whereas Leicester have a difficult Brighton away game. Do you see this differently?

e. https://twitter.com/Orbinho/status/1191268565221072896
"Arsenal's win percentage against teams with animal nicknames is 66% compared with 55% for birds and 53% for all the rest. Might not be enough against the Foxes next weekend. #LEIARS". Have you taken this into account for Leicester - Arsenal? 8-)

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 11:48

Yes. Leicester are my bankers for 3rd or 4th so will score more and concede less than Arsenal....

Lund will be starting every GW grom now for me. Just look on here for people who had hum on their bench.... (Ditto Soy, who I would start as per the above.)

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 04 Nov 2019, 11:57

blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 11:48
Yes. Leicester are my bankers for 3rd or 4th so will score more and concede less than Arsenal....

Lund will be starting every GW grom now for me. Just look on here for people who had hum on their bench.... (Ditto Soy, who I would start as per the above.)
Agree about Leicester for the season. Maybe I am putting too much emphasis on fixtures and the idea of being patient. Will have to think about. Thank's again for the suggestions.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 12:08

JanosKojak wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 11:57
blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 11:48
Yes. Leicester are my bankers for 3rd or 4th so will score more and concede less than Arsenal....

Lund will be starting every GW grom now for me. Just look on here for people who had hum on their bench.... (Ditto Soy, who I would start as per the above.)
Agree about Leicester for the season. Maybe I am putting too much emphasis on fixtures and the idea of being patient. Will have to think about. Thank's again for the suggestions.
Or impatient ie going for Auba points now rather than Vardy until May?

There is also the free cash to splash....

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 04 Nov 2019, 12:22

blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 12:08
Or impatient ie going for Auba points now rather than Vardy until May?

There is also the free cash to splash....
That is true. I am very worried about next week and feel like Otamendi is a problem that needs to be fixed briefly with a longterm solution. Lundstram might be the option as you say. Although Haller is another big problem. I feel like I need three transfers (Otamendi and Haller out and Vardy in) and that Aubameyang is the least of my problems. I can understand that I might be using a faulty logic here, but my bench doesn't feel strong enough to keep Otamendi and Haller there for couple more weeks. And taking hits feels also wrong.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 12:24

It is worth -4, not 8 imho.

Hits are for more than 1 GW's points.. .

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 04 Nov 2019, 12:34

So you're suggesting (just making sure):

Auba => Vardy
Otamendi => Lundstram
Haller => Someone for -4p?

I wish I could poll the options:

A) As above
B) Otamendi => Lundstram
C) Otamendi => Emerson (my original plan)

edit. Maybe option D) being Otamendi => Lundstram and Haller => Rashford

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 12:48

You can do a Thread with a Poll( and editing your first post may add it here.

While I'm far from a WHam fan, Haller isn't worth a hit? It depends how many others you want to shift out....

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 04 Nov 2019, 13:09

blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 12:48
You can do a Thread with a Poll( and editing your first post may add it here.

While I'm far from a WHam fan, Haller isn't worth a hit? It depends how many others you want to shift out....
Thank you a lot :!: Poll added. Added my own vote for option a) :roll:. Hopefully someone else votes as well.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by noelix » 04 Nov 2019, 13:26

I went for d), with Jimenez in my mind for the sub-8.8 forward, but up to you!

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 05 Nov 2019, 07:52

noelix wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 13:26
I went for d), with Jimenez in my mind for the sub-8.8 forward, but up to you!
I really have considered Jimenez, but feels like until the Thursday games are over I'm going to avoid Wolves players. Currently really leaning on saving the transfers and going with a) or b). Hopefully someone changes my mind.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 05 Nov 2019, 11:53

Agreed re Wolves and the EL.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 07 Nov 2019, 22:25

Removed the poll. Punted hard with three stupid transfers. This time after one cognac. I hate this game right now :D

Haller, Otamendi and Mount => Vardy, Aurier and McGinn before possible price rices. 0,0ITB.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 11 Nov 2019, 07:36

GW 12 review:

Another small green arrow with 67 points (-4p). Last minute captain change from Vardy to Abraham cost me little, but I'm happy with the result. OR 950k and 41p behind money league leader.

GW 13 preview:

Pope (Button)
Guilbert, Aurier, Soyuncu, TAA (Rico)
Sterling (C), Maddison, KDB, McGinn (Cantwell)
Auba, Vardy (Abraham)
0,0 ITB

Hopefully I can roll. I don't actually see any necessary transfers for the next two gameweeks. After that it's restructuring time. Hoping to get rid of Aubameyang after SOU, nor for a base price player and move the funds to accomodate 442 or 352 for the near future.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 11 Nov 2019, 09:19

Yep to 2 up top and dump Aurier for anyone....

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 11 Nov 2019, 09:29

blahblah wrote:
11 Nov 2019, 09:19
Yep to 2 up top and dump Aurier for anyone....
You might be right on this one. He really looked horrible. Transferred him in as cheap playing Spurs defender. I quess I'm living in the past when it comes to Spurs. Could do Aurier => Lundstram today as Lundstram might be rising. Although Aurier is in team "Magnus Carlsen". So maybe I should just hold on :?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 11 Nov 2019, 09:31

Spurs defence has been poor.... They are lower than MU now?

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 11 Nov 2019, 09:50

Thank's Blah. Transferred in Lundstram for Aurier. I figured I'm definitely going to regret not doing it later. So transfers hopefully done for the international break.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by blahblah » 11 Nov 2019, 17:42

I brought Lund in recently as I kinda felt obliged to have him - he starts for me regardless of opposition...

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Back to basics

Post by JanosKojak » 25 Nov 2019, 11:26

My biggest mistakes this season:
1) Not watching enough football
2) Picking punts without seeing them play
3) Punty captain picks (Kane, Auba)

It's time to get back to basics and identify the key players (bolded):
Pope (Button)
TAA, Soyuncu, Lundstram, Rico, Guilbert
Sterling, KDB, Maddison, McGinn, Cantwell
Vardy, Abraham, Auba

Sterling might receive some critic but I am certainly trusting him over Mane. Still feel that Mane is getting a bit lucky and Liverpool are not going to haul like ManCity. Liverpool will always try to kill the pace of the game and not overcommit sometimes even with only one a goal lead. We haven't seen much of that lately since they have been trailing so often. ManC will usually keep pushing even in lead. As a Liverpool fan this is also insurance. It really hurts whenever Sterling scores, but not so much when Mane does :roll:

Soyuncu just does everything. Meets the eye test, plays for an overperforming, well defending team, rises to corners and has a nice price tag. Vardy, KDB, TAA are pretty self-explanatory but Abraham is someone who I have to keep an eye on.

Who are the key players I don't have yet?

With being able to see a couple of games the last few gameweeks I certainly feel that Pulisic is one of them. But besides him I haven't spotted anyone. Jimenez could definitely be one, but I just can't get in a player who plays 180min almost every week :O

I have an easy way to get to Pulisic with two tranfers in gameweek 15 by getting rid of my biggest mistake: Auba. Then the key player structure would be up to seven:

TAA, Soyuncu
Sterling, KDB, Pulisic
Vardy, Abraham

After that i would be one short of my goal of 8 key players. Currently the one that interests me the most is Son. I could get him in but definitely will need to see a few more games from Spuds pods. Luckily I have two gameweeks for this.

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Re: Drunken punts (JanosKojak's RMT)

Post by JanosKojak » 02 Dec 2019, 08:31

Gameweek 14 review:

Abraham injury news changed my plans. Sometimes goalscorers take more time to recover from injuries mentally and he could easily miss three games. I felt like this was a good time to take a hit and get one key player from my watchlist: Pulisic. So I did Abraham & McGinn => Pulisic & Mousset. Hoping to stick with both of them for a while now.

Got 70p (-4p) all out. Seventh straigh green arrow and narrowed the gap in my money league to 29p. Also won the monthly competition by one point :mrgreen: (although I would have scored more points without the transfers with Cantwell's goal).

Gameweek 15 preview:
Image

Saw enough from Norwich - Arsenal to say that I really don't want any Arsenal players anywhere near my team. So I did Auba to Ings. This is a bit punty especially with Ings playing time being managed. I now have 5,8m in the bank. Thinking about Cantwell to Son in GW16 although this might create some problems on who to bench.

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