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Returning Maniac Tinkering

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Kotzata
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Returning Maniac Tinkering

Post by Kotzata »

I've had a 2-year break from the game but decided to play this season. I didn't watch EPL games during this period so I am currently learning about already established players like Jimenez etc.

I am creating this thread due to a transfer hesitation for several days now.

I banked a transfer in GW2. Last week I incurred a 4 point hit to do Barkley, Robertson, Aubameyang -> Martial, Lundstram, Pukki

This week I've already done Moura -> Sterling as planned

Here is my current team:
RMT.png
I was convinced on Monday that I won't do another transfer for a further hit and will give King one more chance. However, over the last several days I have almost decided to swap him for Haller for a 4 point hit. I have 1.1 ITB so if I do it I will be left with 0.1.

Reasons I should go for it:
1. King is out of form. He missed an unbelievably easy chance 1-on-1 with the keeper in the EFL Cup midweek. A player with confidence should easily score from that position.
He had a similar lethargic shot in the 2nd minute of the Man City game.
2. Related to the above, his only goals thus far are from penalties. No assists yet.
3. Bournemouth as a whole seem out of form. Even if we take out the City game, they weren't very good against Sheffield and Villa. The Villa match also developed quite fortunately for them due to the 2nd minute penalty. Teammates C. Wilson and Fraser also don't look great at the moment.
4. His fixture is not easy with Leicester away. Last year the same fixture finished 2:0.
5. I already lost 0.1 from him and he is 56% on the way to another price drop if he flops again.
6. He will be with the Norwegian national team during the international break.
7. Haller scored two very clinical goals last week. He also speaks confidently in interviews and seems confident.
8. Haller has a good goalscoring record from last season's Bundesliga.
9. He has a great fixture this week. It has even become tastier after Klose's season ending injury meaning Hanley will continue at CB and from what I've seen he is very shaky. Norwich seem an attacking team that will try to outscore their opponents rather than rely on good defence.
10. Haller has good fixtures after this gameweek too. King's ones aren't hard either, has to be said, but I prefer to avoid his clash with Digne next week who I also have.
11. If Haller scores this week, there is a bandwagon potential for some money making.
12. Haller is a big differential owned by just 5% of teams.
13. Haller is not called up for international duty to the best of my knowledge.

Reasons I shouldn't go for it:
1. The 4 point hit.
2. Taking a player out too soon instead of giving him more chances. But as I said he looks out of form to me...
3. King is a penalty taker.
4. Daniels injury - I read that Fraser will play at the wing and they will probably go 4-4-2 now, so King should play in attack instead of midfield like the City game?
5. Jumping on a new EPL player that's only played 2 matches so far. What if he is a Carlos Kickaball or whatever you're calling such guys :D
6. Michail Antonio injury. West Ham won the game against Watford exactly after Antonio was subbed in. Haller scored his goals to a big extent due to him. Now that he's missing, they will probably rely on Yarmolenko again and he didn't look great against Watford.
7. Doing this transfer will leave me with only 0.1 ITB which reduces my flexibility for future transfers.

As a whole, I am inclined to go for that transfer. If Haller scores just one goal and King blanks the transfer will have been worth it because I would have been obliged to spend my free transfer next week on King.

With this move, I am planning to bank my GW5 transfer and have two freebies for GW6 when, if needed, I could do another 4 point hit to restructure the team. Usually I have always been a conservative manager in prior years but now I am trying to reassess all facets of taking hits.

Another issue giving me headache this week is who to start. Martial is injured so he'll be benched. Dunk will be definitely benched too due to his awful fixture and the fact I have Ryan as a GK anyway. I need to bench one of Lundstram, Dendoncker and Greenwood.

I was sure I'll bench Dendoncker (before Martial's injury news arrived) due to Europa League game 65 hours before and fixture congestion with fatigue, and the fact I have Digne in defence. However, he scored a goal yesterday and also had another 1-on-1 chance against the keeper. He seems in form, scored another goal recently that was disallowed by VAR. He will also get 2 weeks without games as from what I see he is a deep substitute for Belgium. For a 4.5 midfielder he looks dangerous and probably the better pick than Lundstram? I thought of playing Lundstram because he is essentially a midfielder too, but with the added bonus of clean sheets. And he has started well, he had a big chance this last weekend against Leicester too to build up on his GW2 goal.

And then there is the Martial injury and suggestions that maybe Greenwood could start? Which of these three guys would you bench?

Also, any opinions on the proposed 4 point hit for King -> Haller?

Sorry for the very long post. Hopefully some of the other maniacs will read it :lol:
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Last edited by Kotzata on 30 Aug 2019, 10:06, edited 1 time in total.

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SlamSam111
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Re: Returning Maniac Tinkering

Post by SlamSam111 »

I think chances of Dendoncker starting are thin given EL game yesterday.

Lundstram has a tough fixture coming up but Chelsea's defence is leaking goals so why not go for a gamble on him?

Nobody knows if Greenwood will make it to the XI unfortunately, maybe Rashford will play up top.

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Smurphy Paw
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Re: Returning Maniac Tinkering

Post by Smurphy Paw »

Welcome back!

To hit or not to hit?
In part this depends on when you plan to wildcard. The emerging consensus in these parts is Wk4-8 is the optimal time to take advantage of the blend of quality information, price rises, etc. If you’re planning to wildcard in a week or two then there are fewer opportunities for the hit to repay the outlay.

More a personal opinion, notwithstanding the wildcard point above I don’t mind a hit or two to set up my team in the first few weeks. Getting the structure right and not missing out on the (right) bandwagons are important.

As for the specific transfer, at the moment Haller looks to be the better proposition. I too moved away from King very quickly. Until he proves us wrong I doubt we’ll miss him based on current form!

A long answer to a long question, without actually answering your question :lol:
TL:DR - don’t do it if you’re going to wildcard in the next couple of GWs!

Who to bench?
Get a three-sided coin! I wouldn’t sweat that decision too much

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blahblah
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Re: Returning Maniac Tinkering

Post by blahblah »

No need for a 3 sided coin. Get 3 coins and allocate one option to each coin and toss them. If all the are the same, repeat until a 1-2 split and you have your winner ie the 1 head or tail.

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Smurphy Paw
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Re: Returning Maniac Tinkering

Post by Smurphy Paw »

I read an OGS quote on the Martial thread about Greenwood not being used to not playing and he was back up to Martial and Rashford. I read that as signalling that MG starts. May be wrong, but might that tip the balance?

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Kotzata
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Re: Returning Maniac Tinkering

Post by Kotzata »

Thank you for the input, guys!

I am now fully convinced on the 4 point hit and will do the transfer. Leicester have a decent defence, Chilwell is back, overall form, fixtures and potential bandwagon tilts the scales towards Haller.

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 30 Aug 2019, 10:56 don’t do it if you’re going to wildcard in the next couple of GWs
I don't plan to use the WC in the next couple of GWs. My current plan is to bank a transfer in GW5 and use two or three transfers in GW6, depends on what happens until then, I hope my plan isn't shattered. This also, as you've implied, plays a part in my decision to do the transfer and 4 point hit.

I also have decided to play Lundstram as Kante is out again which may make Chelsea fragile at the back again.

Smurphy's Paw wrote: 30 Aug 2019, 11:58 I read an OGS quote on the Martial thread about Greenwood not being used to not playing and he was back up to Martial and Rashford. I read that as signalling that MG starts. May be wrong, but might that tip the balance?
I watched the last 30 mins of the Man Utd - Palace game and Greenwood was totally anonymous. Seemed to me not quite ready for this level and after United lost there will be pressure for 3 points tomorrow, and maybe a 17 year old is not the best solution. Other people have suggested Pereyra or Mata could start instead.

I had a decision to play Dendoncker also because this Gbamin guy from Everton played as DMC in their two clean sheets and as soon as he went out they conceded at Villa, he is out again this week. But saw just now Dendoncker is flagged. Will have to check later today information from their coach how serious it is, if there is such information at all.

This flag changes things slightly because I assume now most people that have Dendoncker will bench him, whereas a higher proportion of Greenwood owners will play him. So I may play Greenwood purely for ranking damage purposes. I'll check back later tonight if there's more information.

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