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Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by thebillfella » 03 Nov 2019, 21:38

Is Mount to Pulisic too sideways a move or a good time to make the switch given impending price rise for Pulisic tonight?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 03 Nov 2019, 21:54

thebillfella wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 21:38
Is Mount to Pulisic too sideways a move or a good time to make the switch given impending price rise for Pulisic tonight?
I wouldn’t. CHO to Pulisic is sideways. Mount to Pulisic is hopping from a (current) certain starter to someone with real competition for their position

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by hancockjr » 03 Nov 2019, 21:55

Zimmerman wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 20:56
P11 W10 D1 L0 F25 A9

Can’t wait for them to find their rhythm
It's true though isn't it, they haven't played well since the first half at Chelsea have they, apart from the end of matches when frantically chasing the game?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by thebillfella » 03 Nov 2019, 22:41

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 21:54
thebillfella wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 21:38
Is Mount to Pulisic too sideways a move or a good time to make the switch given impending price rise for Pulisic tonight?
I wouldn’t. CHO to Pulisic is sideways. Mount to Pulisic is hopping from a (current) certain starter to someone with real competition for their position
Yeh, I think that's where I'm at, but equally I think Pulisic may have pushed himself ahead of CHO right now in the pecking order. Also considering Mount to Martial as well but currently £0.1m short so taking that as a sign!

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 03 Nov 2019, 23:00

blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Fuzz » 03 Nov 2019, 23:44

It’s nice to know I’m not the only experienced player having a shocker.

I often start slowly, but I’m so far behind I’m considering just writing this season off.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Turd Ferguson » 04 Nov 2019, 00:30

Mount had 5 shots and forced a couple nice saves out of Foster. Taking him out is knee jerk imo. If Pulisic or Hudson odoi can solidify a starter role then they’re good picks, but I’m afraid there will be 4 wingers sharing 2 positions the whole season at Chelsea.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Pirlo's Beard » 04 Nov 2019, 00:40

Turd Ferguson wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 00:30
I’m afraid there will be 4 wingers sharing 2 positions the whole season at Chelsea.
Are we overlooking Willian? Pedro seems much less of a threat to him than Hudson-Odoi is to Pulisic. Seems to have nailed down his place since GW5 and has 2 goals and 2 assists since then, averaging 5.57 points per game.

Of course, historically speaking, Willian hasn't always been the most reliable FPL pick. And I'm not suggesting anyone should switch Mount for Willian, just to be clear. But he could be a good pick in his own right.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Mr Clarinet » 04 Nov 2019, 07:56

Season so far...

Three low low price outfield picks emerge for us to put on our benches so we can squeeze some extra star quality into our starting XI.

Turns out the low low price outfield picks on our bench score more points than the star quality picks in our starting XI.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Zimmerman » 04 Nov 2019, 08:01

hancockjr wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 21:55
Zimmerman wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 20:56
P11 W10 D1 L0 F25 A9

Can’t wait for them to find their rhythm
It's true though isn't it, they haven't played well since the first half at Chelsea have they, apart from the end of matches when frantically chasing the game?
They had about 75% possession on Saturday and about 25 shots.

A goal wrongly ruled out and a couple of potential penalties (1-4 pens on another day).

Battered Spurs last weekend similar stats and a keeper playing out of his skin against us.

Comfortably beat Leicester (arguably the 3rd best/form team in the league)?

We’ve become desensitised with City’s exploits in recent years. 31/33 points is ridiculous and you don’t do that by frantically chasing. You do that by dominating matches and grinding down your opposition. Villa had 2 or 3 players go down with cramp on Saturday... in November... after 70 mins 🤣

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by math! » 04 Nov 2019, 08:10

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 00:40
Turd Ferguson wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 00:30
I’m afraid there will be 4 wingers sharing 2 positions the whole season at Chelsea.
Are we overlooking Willian? Pedro seems much less of a threat to him than Hudson-Odoi is to Pulisic. Seems to have nailed down his place since GW5 and has 2 goals and 2 assists since then, averaging 5.57 points per game.

Of course, historically speaking, Willian hasn't always been the most reliable FPL pick. And I'm not suggesting anyone should switch Mount for Willian, just to be clear. But he could be a good pick in his own right.
It is most likely Pulisic and CHO fighting for one position and Willian locking down the other. Willian is playing really well and he has the experience which I think makes a big difference with his composure on the ball and decision making. CHO often plays good balls as well but like Pulisic can be prone to bad decisions.

I think all three of them are vulnerable to rotation if their form dips. It's happened to CHO already, you could say Pedro as well after his injury.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 08:56

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 23:00
blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:
Tbh that was the goal for the season, but not like this 😂

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 04 Nov 2019, 09:13

Mr Clarinet wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 07:56
Season so far...

Three low low price outfield picks emerge for us to put on our benches so we can squeeze some extra star quality into our starting XI.

Turns out the low low price outfield picks on our bench score more points than the star quality picks in our starting XI.
Yep, this just about nails it.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 04 Nov 2019, 09:15

blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 08:56
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 23:00
blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:
Tbh that was the goal for the season, but not like this 😂
:oops: :oops: I'm still hoping I can do a blah and stage a magnificent comeback; just need to get a move on.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 09:47

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 09:15
blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 08:56
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 23:00
blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:
Tbh that was the goal for the season, but not like this 😂
:oops: :oops: I'm still hoping I can do a blah and stage a magnificent comeback; just need to get a move on.
In summer I would have taken being level with you on Bonfire Night 😂😂😂

Hey ho 31 behind Romyn....

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by math! » 04 Nov 2019, 09:52

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 09:15
blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 08:56
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 23:00
blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:
Tbh that was the goal for the season, but not like this 😂
:oops: :oops: I'm still hoping I can do a blah and stage a magnificent comeback; just need to get a move on.
You'll have to take a minimum of 4 hits a week :lol:

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by blahblah » 04 Nov 2019, 09:57

math! wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 09:52
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 09:15
blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 08:56
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 23:00
blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:
Tbh that was the goal for the season, but not like this 😂
:oops: :oops: I'm still hoping I can do a blah and stage a magnificent comeback; just need to get a move on.
You'll have to take a minimum of 4 hits a week :lol:
Don't be daft it's 3 or 4 Xfers every other GW 😎

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 04 Nov 2019, 10:08

math! wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 09:52
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 09:15
blahblah wrote:
04 Nov 2019, 08:56
Aldershot Rejects wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 23:00
blahblah wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 18:46
I used to be good at this stuff, now I am happy for a second half closing the gap on AR and stuff, I think I have 3 GW's over 50 this season which is SHITE, But hey ho 20 from the Fox 3 has me on 49 this GW

I just chill and be flippant, but then I am not a stats bod....
I used to be good as well but playing Diop over Soyu cost me 14 points and you warned me about it :oops: Result was a rank drop of 500k. At this rate you are going to spend the second half of the season pulling away from me. :lol:
Tbh that was the goal for the season, but not like this 😂
:oops: :oops: I'm still hoping I can do a blah and stage a magnificent comeback; just need to get a move on.
You'll have to take a minimum of 4 hits a week :lol:
Yeah, not my natural style.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by dino1980 » 04 Nov 2019, 11:11

Mav3rick wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 12:45
Yeah no hacking involved, I deleted the team myself yesterday. It sounds a bit OTT in isolation but the Otamendi/Lundstram thing just pushed me over the edge.

The team doesn't actually delete for 21 days so I have time to reflect and re-consider and can re-instate before then, but right now I'm happy being out of the game.
Hey Mav, you're probably already aware, but as an FYI it seems to have also deleted your draft team(s) too.

I'd echo what others have said, your input here is invaluable and it'd be a shame to see you quit. Any thoughts on just running the rest of the season as a test? Or with a rule like you can only pick players from the UK & Ireland, or under 10% ownership etc?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by ricardo68 » 05 Nov 2019, 07:03

Dear Crabbers, I've seen many go Teilemans over Maddie as he is cheaper but surely Maddie is the better FPL bet? On set pieces and more consistent?

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Sutter Kane » 05 Nov 2019, 07:15

ricardo68 wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 07:03
Dear Crabbers, I've seen many go Teilemans over Maddie as he is cheaper but surely Maddie is the better FPL bet? On set pieces and more consistent?
Probably. Both represent decent value so I guess it's about how much money you have to spend.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Oxford NZ » 05 Nov 2019, 07:24

If Tall Paul or any other Burnley faithful have an opinion on Pieters / Taylor it would be appreciated. I started the season with Charlie and held him through his price drops as I was confident of his ability and would get back into the side. Transferred him out for Pieters as I needed a nailed Burnley defender for this run.
Now it looks like Charlie had a good second half when he came on for Erik who had a poor first half.
Looking for a starter for the West Ham game as I see Wood scoring and a clean sheet for Burnley.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Tall Paul » 05 Nov 2019, 08:13

Oxford NZ wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 07:24
If Tall Paul or any other Burnley faithful have an opinion on Pieters / Taylor it would be appreciated. I started the season with Charlie and held him through his price drops as I was confident of his ability and would get back into the side. Transferred him out for Pieters as I needed a nailed Burnley defender for this run.
Now it looks like Charlie had a good second half when he came on for Erik who had a poor first half.
Looking for a starter for the West Ham game as I see Wood scoring and a clean sheet for Burnley.
I've answered you in TRK :D

Added here for posterity - BFM
Tall Paul wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 08:11
I, and many Burnley supporters, expect changes against West Ham after the terrible performance at Bramall Lane. Taylor was actually one of the only players to come out with any credit after replacing Pieters at half time so he should start on Saturday. However I thought the same after he came on against Everton and Pieters kept the spot, so there are no guarantees. At his current price, I'm thinking of bringing Taylor in myself if it looks like he'll start but I'd wait for the press conferences at least.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Oxford NZ » 05 Nov 2019, 08:19

Thanks TP.
Sorry to post in both, I was going to delete the on in pub as i though this thread more appropriate. :)

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Smurphy's Paw » 05 Nov 2019, 09:24

Sutter Kane wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 07:15
ricardo68 wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 07:03
Dear Crabbers, I've seen many go Teilemans over Maddie as he is cheaper but surely Maddie is the better FPL bet? On set pieces and more consistent?
Probably. Both represent decent value so I guess it's about how much money you have to spend.
This
Points comparable if not equal. But for me as the saving is the difference between Robertson or Otamendi/Digne, then Tielemans in tandem seems the better bet

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by snakzz » 05 Nov 2019, 11:28

Mav3rick wrote:
03 Nov 2019, 12:45
Yeah no hacking involved, I deleted the team myself yesterday. It sounds a bit OTT in isolation but the Otamendi/Lundstram thing just pushed me over the edge.

The team doesn't actually delete for 21 days so I have time to reflect and re-consider and can re-instate before then, but right now I'm happy being out of the game.
I totaly feel you.

I spent the 2 hours constantly watching the score sheet in the city game, only to see if they had used 3 subs and if ota was in.

That takes all the enjoyment away from the game.

(I only had 8 points to come from the bench, and still was mad as hell).

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by ricardo68 » 06 Nov 2019, 10:09

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 09:24
Sutter Kane wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 07:15
ricardo68 wrote:
05 Nov 2019, 07:03
Dear Crabbers, I've seen many go Teilemans over Maddie as he is cheaper but surely Maddie is the better FPL bet? On set pieces and more consistent?
Probably. Both represent decent value so I guess it's about how much money you have to spend.
This
Points comparable if not equal. But for me as the saving is the difference between Robertson or Otamendi/Digne, then Tielemans in tandem seems the better bet
Yes makes sense. Thank you both for your input!!!

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Bobby Fetta » 07 Nov 2019, 21:09

Haven't posted these for a while.

As always, interested in any observations you have.

Mine are:
- Sheffield United defence :shock: - what the hell was I thinking benching Lundstram last week? :oops:
- Leicester defence - likewise, why did I bench Soyuncu? :cry: :cry:
- Arsenal have a mid-table / decent defence :D
- Everton defensive slide continues
- Burnley defence has been underperforming xGA for a long time now. Remember all those comments and articles about why xGA didn't work for Burnley (the other way round)
- Man City attack is off the chart
- Villa attack is decent
- Man United xG/xGA stats are much better than real life
- Spurs' xG/xGA stats look like relegation form
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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by TheRumourMill » 07 Nov 2019, 23:21

Thanks for these Bobby, always enjoy perusing this data.

I'd echo those observations, and it's interesting thinking how to apply these findings to the next few weeks.

It has been highlighted this week in particular with his haul, but Lundstrum is getting towards permastarter status. Especially from gw15, but arguably this week too looking at spurs stats! I think TAA is a lock in too given his creative stats and Liverpool's strong defensive numbers, and there are also good cases for a second pool defender or a Leicester defender. Man u also offer strong defenders but not the same value or attacking threat.

There's a lot of talk of switching city mids to pool mids at the moment but just look at those xg lines, city are so much better! Is there a case for holding?

I like the way Brighton's xg is trending. I think in about 5 weeks time when their fixtures turn they could offer incredible value through trossard, maupay and Connelly.

The main issue I'm struggling with is that there's almost too much value out there at the moment. Leicester, Chelsea, and Sheffield united are all offering up high scoring assets for peanuts, but most of the premiums are performing unpredictably. May be best to go with a "fat" bench for the time being and rotate the squad according to fixture, especially as we are about to enter rotation season and could well get these guys off the bench anyway.

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Re: Specious Theoretic Chatter (The free-for-all shared-RMT thread 19/20)

Post by Aldershot Rejects » 08 Nov 2019, 00:23

Yes, thanks Bobby. I've been wondering about the Burnley defensive figures - seems like a complete turnaround from a couple of years ago.

As TRM says, Brighton's attack is looking good. Brighton's defensive stats are also interesting - they tend to be a bit all or nothing. They have an xGA under 1 in 5 games (and have converted 4 of those to cs) but they also have an xGA of over 2 in 4 games (and have conceded 10 goals in those games). Certainly they look good as a rotation option in defence.

The attacking figures for Chelsea also confirm what seems to be happening in real life and that is that they are now a match for Liverpool and at a much lower price.

Leicester are significantly over-achieving offensively. Their xG is way beneath both Liverpool and Chelsea but they have outscored both. Whilst the Southampton game distorts things somewhat, it is part of a wider trend. I wonder how much of that is due to Vardy who seems to always perform above xG expectations. Defensively I am wondering whether they or Liverpool are worth doubling-up on given the attacking threat both defences also offer. Perreira or Robbo anyone?

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